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Connected and Sustainable Energy




Written specifically for
Connected Urban Development
Global Conference 2008—Amsterdam




Author
Wes Frye

Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group
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Connected and Sustainable Energy

                       About Connected Urban Development
                       Connected Urban Development (CUD) is a public-private partnership program focused
                       on innovative use of information and communications technology (ICT) to make knowl-
                       edge, people, traffic, and energy flow more efficiently. This increased efficiency enhances
                       how people experience urban life, streamlines the management of cities, and decreases
                       the urban environmental footprint.
                       The program’s main success elements are:
                       · Measuring CO2 emissions reduction resulting from operational implementation
                         of CUD projects within cities.
                       · Demonstrating the positive impact of ICT and broadband connectivity on
                         climate change
                       · Developing relevant thought leadership and replicable methodologies allowing
                         CUD partner cities to learn from each other and share their experiences and best
                         practices with cities around the world
                       The initial scope of the program includes five major areas of focus:
                       · Connected and Sustainable Work
                       · Connected and Sustainable Mobility
                       · Connected and Sustainable Energy
                       · Connected and Sustainable Buildings
                       · Connected and Sustainable ICT Infrastructure

                       Context
                       Cities around the world are realizing that energy consumed by buildings and homes is
                       the leading cause of global-warming emissions. This includes electricity and fossil fuel
                       used to light, heat, and power our homes, apartments, office buildings, and factories. In
                       fact, New York City estimates that energy usage causes roughly 80 percent of its global-
                       warming emissions and more than 40 percent of locally generated air pollution. By 2015,
                       New York City estimates it will be pumping an additional 4.6 million tons of CO2 into the
                       atmosphere each year.1 The cause is a growing demand for energy, combined with
                       aging electricity infrastructure. New York City’s electricity demand is forecast to grow
                       44 percent by 2030. Many plants that generate electric power are more than 30 years old
                       (with outdated technologies), use 30 to 60 percent more fuel, and produce several times
                       the air pollution of newer plants to generate the same amount of electricity.




1. PlaNYC, Office of Mayor Bloomberg, 2008, page 101.




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                       But energy poses additional challenges for city leaders. Our demand for electricity
                       continues to grow, increasing consumer costs. New York City estimates that by 2015,
                       the city’s annual electricity and heating bill will grow by $3 billion—translating into
                       annual energy bills that are $300 to $400 higher per household. By 2030, New York
                       City forecasts electricity costs will rise 60 percent above today’s.
                       Clearly, city leaders working to reduce their impact on climate change need to focus
                       carefully on how energy is generated, distributed, and consumed throughout their city.
                       What can be done? Leading cities are creating dedicated ministries and departments
                       to develop integrated strategies to meet our growing demand for energy while mitigat-
                       ing its impact on climate change. There is no easy solution, and cities must focus both
                       on reducing energy consumption of residents and industry while accelerating greener
                       energy-generation plants.
                       This paper presents an overview of emerging solutions for city leaders to reduce elec-
                       tricity consumption, produce greener energy with lower carbon emissions, and improve
                       the reliability of the electric grid.

                       The Electric Grid
                       Most of the world’s electricity delivery system or “grid” was built when energy was rela-
                       tively inexpensive. While minor upgrades have been made to meet increasing demand,
                       the grid still operates the way it did almost 100 years ago—energy flows over the grid
                       from central power plants to consumers, and reliability is ensured by maintaining
                       excess capacity.
                       The result is an inefficient and environmentally wasteful system that is a major emitter of
                       greenhouse gases, consumer of fossil fuels, and not well suited to distributed, renewable
                       solar and wind energy sources. In addition, the grid may not have sufficient capacity to
                       meet future demand.
                       Several trends have combined to increase awareness of these problems, including
                       greater recognition of climate change, commitments to reduce carbon emissions,
                       rising fuel costs, and technology innovation. In addition, recent studies support a call
                       for change:
                       •	 Power	generation	causes	25.9	percent	of	global	carbon	(CO2)	emissions.2
                       •	 CO2	emissions	from	electricity	use	will	grow	faster	than	those	from	all	other	sectors	
                          through 2050.3
                       •	 Forecast	demand	for	electricity	may	exceed	projected	available	capacity	in	the	
                          United States by 20154	(see	Figure	1).




2. IPCC, 2007.
3. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006.
4. “Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2007–2016,” North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), October 2007.




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  Figure 1. Projected Electricity Capacity versus Demand in the United States
                  1,100
                  1,050               Projected Potential Capacity
                  1,000               Projected Available Capacity
Thousands of Megawatts



                                      High Demand Projection
                         950
                                      Low Demand Projection
                         900          Historic Demand
                         850
                         800
                         750
                         700
                         650
                         600
                         550
                            1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
                                                         Year

  Source: NERC, 2008; Cisco IBSG, 2008




  Given this information, governments and regulators, utility companies, and technology
  firms are rethinking how the electricity grid should look. Already, utility companies and
  governments around the world are launching efforts to:
  •	 Increase	distributed	solar	and	wind	power	generation	to	increase	the	electrical	
     supply without additional greenhouse gas emissions
  •	 Use	plug-in	hybrid	electric	vehicles	(PHEVs)	to	generate	and	consume	electric	
     power intelligently
  •	 Sequester	(scrub	and	store)	the	carbon	from	coal	plant	emissions	
  •	 Use	demand	management	to	improve	energy	efficiency	and	reduce	overall	
     electricity consumption
  •	 Monitor	and	control	the	energy	grid	in	near-real	time	to	improve	reliability	and	
     utilization, reduce blackouts, and postpone costly new upgrades
  For	all	of	these	efforts—solar	and	wind	plants,	PHEVs,	active	home-energy	manage-
  ment, and grid monitoring—to work together in one integrated system, a new level of
  intelligence	and	communication	will	be	required.	For	example:	
  •	 Rooftop	solar	panels	need	to	notify	backup	power	generators	within	seconds	that	
     approaching clouds will reduce output.
  •	 The	grid	needs	to	notify	PHEVs	about	the	best	time	to	recharge	their	batteries.	
  •	 Utility	companies	need	to	communicate	with	and	control	appliances	such	as	
     refrigerators and air conditioners during periods of peak electricity demand.




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•	 Factory	operators	must	know	the	cost	of	electric	power	every	few	minutes	to	manage	
   their energy use economically.
•	 Homeowners	need	to	become	smart	buyers	and	consumers	of	electricity	by	knowing	
   when to adjust thermostats to optimize energy costs.
Unfortunately, these activities cannot be achieved with the current energy grid. Today’s
electric infrastructure simply cannot coordinate and control all the systems that will be
attached to it.
A	new,	more	intelligent	electric	system	or	“Smart	Grid”	is	required	that	combines	
information technology (IT) with renewable energy to significantly improve how electricity
is	generated,	delivered,	and	consumed	(see	Figure	2).	A	Smart	Grid	provides	utility	
companies with near-real-time information to manage the entire electrical grid as an
integrated system—actively sensing and responding to changes in power demand,
supply, costs, and emissions—from rooftop solar panels on homes, to remote, unmanned
wind farms, to energy-intensive factories.
A Smart Grid is a major advance from today, where utility companies have only basic
information about how the grid is operating, with much of that information arriving too
late to prevent a major power failure or blackout.

Figure 2. Traditional Roles Are Reversed with a Smart Grid—Consumers Become Producers,
          and	Information	and	Electricity	Flow	in	Both	Directions

  Smart Grid Diagram
                                                                      Electricity Flow
                                                                      Information Flow
                      Low-energy Home
                     with Microgeneration
                                                                       Grid
                            Device                Energy Storage
                                                                     Operation
                                                                      Center


                                 Large-scale
                                 Renewable
                                 Generation                                Distribution
        Coal
                                                                               Grid
     Sequestration
                                                    Building as              Sensors
                                                    Power Plant
                             Nuclear
     Plug-in Hybrid         Power Plant
    Electric Vehicles                                                Electric Public
                                                                     Transportation

      High-voltage DC
                                  Smart Grid
                                  Community           Emissions
                                (Energy Co-ops)       Monitoring


Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008.




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                       Components of a Smart Grid
                       A Smart Grid comprises three major components: 1) demand management, 2) distrib-
                       uted electricity generation, and 3) transmission and distribution grid management.

                       1) Demand Management: Reducing Electricity Consumption in Homes,
                          Offices, and Factories
                          Demand management works to reduce electricity consumption in homes, offices, and
                          factories by continually monitoring electricity consumption and actively managing
                          how appliances consume energy. It consists of demand-response programs, smart
                          meters and variable electricity pricing, smart buildings with smart appliances, and
                          energy dashboards. Combined, these innovations allow utility companies and con-
                          sumers to manage and respond to variances in electricity demand more effectively.
                       •	 Demand response—During periods of peak energy use, utility companies send
                          electronic alerts asking consumers to reduce their energy consumption by turning off
                          non-essential appliances. When the Smart Grid is fully developed, alert signals will be
                          automatically sent to appliances, eliminating the need for manual intervention.
                          If enough consumers comply with this approach, the reduction in power consumption
                          could be enough to keep a typical utility company from building an additional power
                          plant—the most expensive asset utility companies operate.5 To increase the number
                          of consumers who comply, utility companies may offer cash payments or reduce
                          consumers’ electric bills.
                       •	 Smart meters and variable pricing—Today’s electricity prices on the wholesale
                          market are volatile because they are determined by supply and demand, as well as
                          by situations that depend on generation capacity, fuel prices, weather conditions, and
                          demand fluctuations over time. On average, off-peak prices at night are 50 percent
                          less than prices during the day. During demand peaks, prices can be many times
                          greater than those of off-peak periods.
                          Despite price fluctuations in wholesale markets, most retail consumers are currently
                          charged a flat price for electricity regardless of the time of day or actual demand.
                          Consumers, therefore, have no visibility into when energy is in short supply, and have
                          little incentive to lower their energy use to reduce their energy bill while helping utility
                          companies meet demand.
                          To remedy this situation, utility companies are now replacing traditional mechanical
                          electric meters with smart meters. These new devices allow utility companies to
                          monitor	consumer	usage	frequently	and,	more	important,	give	customers	the	ability	
                          to choose variable-rate pricing based on the time of day. By seeing the real cost of
                          energy, consumers can respond accordingly by shifting their energy consumption
                          from high-price to low-price periods.




5.	 	 GridWise	Demonstration	Project	Fast	Facts,”	Pacific	Northwest	National	Laboratory,	December	2007.
    “




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                          This process, called “load shifting” or “load shedding,” can have the joint benefit
                          of reducing costs for typical consumers while lowering demand peaks for utility
                          companies.
                       •	 Smart buildings with smart appliances—For	decades,	architects	have	designed	
                          passive, energy-efficient systems such as multi-pane windows, better insulation, and
                          appliances that use less energy and are more friendly to the environment. Recent
                          technology innovations now allow active monitoring and reduction of the energy
                          consumed by appliances. Building control systems that manage various appliances—
                          heating,	ventilation,	air	conditioning	(HVAC),	and	lighting—also	are	converging	onto	a	
                          common IT infrastructure that allows these devices to communicate with each other
                          to be more efficient and reduce waste.
                          A manager of more than 100 government buildings, for example, was able to reduce
                          energy consumption nearly 20 percent and save tens of millions of dollars annually
                          simply by ensuring that his building systems were operating properly.6 This meant
                          heaters and air conditioners were not running simultaneously, steam traps were not
                          leaking, and ventilation fans were operational.
                       •	 Energy dashboards and controllers—Online energy dashboards and controllers,
                          already being developed, will provide real-time visibility into individual energy
                          consumption and generation while automatically turning major appliances on and
                          off, and adjusting thermostats to reduce energy use and lower CO2 emissions. A
                          recent university study found that simple dashboards can encourage occupants to
                          reduce energy use in buildings by up to 30 percent.7 Similarly, homeowners will have
                          passive displays, such as the Ambient Orb, a countertop device that glows red when
                          electricity costs are high and green when costs are low, to make the cost of energy
                          more transparent for consumers.
                       •	 Green IT—Electricity	requirements	for	IT	equipment,	such	as	computers,	printers,	
                          servers,	and	networking	equipment,	vary	widely	across	building	types.	For	example,	
                          restaurants, warehouses, and retail stores have much lower power consumption for
                          IT	equipment	than	office	buildings	and	data	centers.	For	office	buildings,	IT	typically	
                          accounts for more than 20 percent of the energy used, and up to 70 percent in
                          some offices.8
                       	 As	HVAC	and	lighting	systems	become	more	efficient	and	the	volume	of	IT	gear	
                         in smart buildings grows, the portion of building energy use attributable to IT will
                         continue to increase. Smart-building solutions that improve the energy efficiency of
                         IT	equipment	include	network-based	power	management,	network	printers,	server	
                         virtualization,	the	procurement	of	energy-efficient	equipment,	and	telecommuting.




6.	 State	of	Missouri,	Dave	Mosby,	Director	of	the	Division	of	Facilities	Management	and	Design	and	Construction	(DFMDC),	2007.
7. Oberlin College, 2005, http://www.oberlin.edu/dormenergy/news.htm
8. Cisco IBSG, 2008.




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                        2) Distributed Electricity Generation: Accelerating Widespread Installation of
                           Renewable Energy Sources
                        •	 Renewable energy using microgeneration devices—Already, some homes and
                           offices find it cost-effective to produce some or all of their own electricity using
                           microgeneration	devices—small-scale	energy-generation	equipment	designed	for	
                           use in homes and offices. Microgeneration devices primarily include rooftop solar
                           panels,	wind	turbines,	fossil	fuel	cogeneration	plants,	and	soon,	PHEVs	that	can	
                           generate electricity for sale back to the grid.
                           These devices are becoming more affordable for residential, commercial, and industrial
                           customers. Depending on the technology type and operating environment, microgene-
                           ration devices can be cost-competitive compared to conventional generation methods.
                           Even	so,	widespread	adoption	of	these	technologies	will	require	government	incen-
                           tives, public awareness campaigns, and further technology development.
                           When fully developed, a Smart Grid will allow owners of microgeneration devices and
                           other	energy-generation	equipment	to	sell	energy	back	to	utility	companies	for	a	profit	
                           more easily. When this happens, consumers become an active part of the grid rather
                           than being separate from it.
                        	 Despite	the	obvious	benefits,	renewable	energy	generation	also	provides	a	unique	
                          challenge: wind and solar power are much more variable than conventional power
                          plants.	For	example,	when	the	wind	stops	blowing	or	the	sky	becomes	overcast,	these	
                          systems stop generating power, creating shortages in the electrical grid.
                           To compensate, utility companies must be able to anticipate these shortages in time
                           to start up conventional power plants to temporarily offset the energy deficit. The
                           Smart Grid will integrate weather reports, real-time output monitoring, and grid-load
                           balancing to respond to this variability proactively.
                        •	 Storage and PHEVs—Until recently, pumped water storage was the only economi-
                           cally	viable	way	to	store	electricity	on	a	large	scale.	With	the	development	of	PHEVs	
                           and electric cars, new opportunities will become available.
                        	 For	example,	car	batteries	can	be	used	to	store	energy	when	it	is	inexpensive	and	sell	
                          it	back	to	the	grid	when	prices	are	higher.	For	drivers,	their	vehicles	would	become	a	
                          viable means to arbitrage the cost of power, while utility companies could use fleets
                          of	PHEVs	to	supply	power	to	the	grid	to	respond	to	peaks	in	electricity	demand.
                        •	 Smart Grid communities—A few forward-looking cities and communities, such
                           as Boulder, Colorado in the United States, are exploring the formation of energy
                           cooperatives that pair corporations and government facilities with residential homes
                           to self-manage some of their energy needs.10




9.	 City	of	Boulder,	Colorado,	2008.




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                       	 For	example,	business	buildings	and	government	facilities	consume	electricity	
                         primarily during normal working hours, while homes use it mostly during morning
                         and evening hours. By aggregating the total energy consumption, energy co-ops can
                         smooth some of the variability in total energy demand. Backup and alternative power
                         sources in buildings could also provide power to homes during off-business hours,
                         while homes could provide power to businesses during working hours.
                          While the concept is yet to be fully proven, energy co-ops may offer a reasonable
                          alternative	to	utility-only	power,	especially	if	local	regulations	do	not	yet	require	utility	
                          companies to buy back surplus power generated locally.

                       3) Transmission and Distribution Grid Management
                          Utility companies are turning to IT solutions to monitor and control the electrical grid
                          in real time. These solutions can prolong the useful life of the existing grid, delaying
                          major investments needed to upgrade and replace current infrastructure. Until now,
                          monitoring has focused only on high-voltage transmission grids. Increasing overall
                          grid	reliability	and	utilization,	however,	will	also	require	enhanced	monitoring	of	
                          medium- and low-voltage distribution grids.
                       •	 Grid monitoring and control—Expensive power outages can be avoided if proper
                          action is taken immediately to isolate the cause of the outage. Utility companies are
                          installing sensors to monitor and control the electrical grid in near-real time (seconds
                          to milliseconds) to detect faults in time to respond. These monitoring and control
                          systems are being extended from the point of transmission down to the distribution
                          grid. Grid performance information is integrated into utility companies’ supervisory
                          control	and	data	acquisition	(SCADA)	systems	to	provide	automatic,	near-real-time	
                          electronic control of the grid.
                       •	 Grid security and surveillance—Many of the assets used to generate and transmit
                          electricity are vulnerable to terrorist attacks and natural disasters. Substations,
                          transformers, and power lines are being connected to data networks, allowing utility
                          companies to monitor their security using live video, tamper sensors, and active
                          monitoring.

                       Smart Grid Benefits
                       A Smart Grid that incorporates demand management, distributed electricity generation,
                       and grid management allows for a wide array of more efficient, “greener” systems to
                       generate and consume electricity.
                       In fact, the potential environmental and economic benefits of a Smart Grid are
                       significant. A recent study, sponsored by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory of the
                       U.S. Department of Energy, provided homeowners with advanced technologies for
                       accessing the power grid to monitor and adjust energy consumption in their homes.
                       The average household reduced its annual electric bill by 10 percent.10



10.	 	 Department	of	Energy	Putting	Power	in	the	Hands	of	Consumers	through	Technology,”	Pacific	Northwest	National	Laboratory,	
     “
     January 2008, http://www.pnl.gov/topstory.asp?id=285


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                       If widely deployed, this approach could reduce peak loads on utility grids up to
                       15	percent	annually,	which	equals	more	than	100	gigawatts,	or	the	need	to	build	
                       100 large coal-fired power plants over the next 20 years in the United States alone.
                       This could save up to $200 billion in capital expenditures on new plant and grid
                       investments,	and	take	the	equivalent	of	30	million	autos	off	the	road.11
                       Similarly, governments are trying to revitalize economic growth by attracting industries
                       that	will	produce	and	build	the	Smart	Grid.	According	to	former	U.S.	Vice	President	
                       Al Gore, “Just as a robust information economy was triggered by the introduction of the
                       Internet, a dynamic, new, renewable energy economy can be stimulated by the develop-
                       ment of an electranet or Smart Grid.”12

                       Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
                       Worldwide demand for electric energy is expected to rise 82 percent by 2030.13 Unless
                       revolutionary new fuels are developed, this demand will be met primarily by building
                       new coal, nuclear, and natural gas electricity-generation plants. Not surprisingly, world
                       CO2	emissions	are	estimated	to	rise	59	percent	by	2030	as	a	result.14
                       The Smart Grid can help offset the increase in CO2 emissions by slowing the growth in
                       demand for electricity. A Smart Grid will:
                       •	 Enable	consumers	to	manage	their	own	energy	consumption	through	dashboards	
                          and electronic energy advisories. More accurate and timely information on electricity
                          pricing will encourage consumers to adopt load-shedding and load-shifting solutions
                          that actively monitor and control energy consumed by appliances.
                       •	 In	deregulated	markets,	allow	consumers	to	use	information	to	shift	dynamically	
                          between competing energy providers based on desired variables including energy
                          cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and social goals. One possibility is an “eBay for
                          electricity” where continual electronic auctions match energy consumers with
                          producers. Users could include utility companies, homeowners with rooftop solar
                          panels, and governments with landfills that reclaim methane gas. This open market
                          approach could accelerate profitability and speed further investments in renewable
                          energy generation.
                       •	 Broadcast	demand-response	alerts	to	lower	peak	energy	demand	and	reduce	the	
                          need for utility companies to start reserve generators. Remote energy-management
                          services and energy-control operations will also advise consumers, giving them the
                          choice to control their homes remotely to reduce energy use.
                       •	 Allow	utility	companies	to	increase	their	focus	on	“Save-a-Watt”	or	“Nega-Watt”	
                          programs instead of producing only power. These programs are effective because
                          offsetting a watt of demand through energy efficiency can be more cost-effective
                          and CO2-efficient than generating an extra watt of electricity.15

11. Ibid.
12. Al Gore, September 2006, http://thinkprogress.org/gore-nyu
13. International Energy Outlook 2008,” Energy Information Administration, 2008, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html
14. Ibid.
15. Jim Rogers, Duke Energy CEO, December 2007.


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                      Accelerate Adoption of Renewable Electricity Sources
                      A Smart Grid will encourage home and building owners to invest in high-efficiency, low-
                      emission microgeneration devices to meet their own needs, and to sell excess energy
                      back to utility companies to offset peak demands on the electrical grid. This will reduce
                      the	need	for	new,	large-scale	power	plants.	Virtual	power	plants	can	also	be	created	that	
                      include both distributed power production and energy-efficiency measures.
                      In	addition,	a	Smart	Grid	will	accelerate	the	introduction	of	PHEVs	to	act	as	temporary	
                      electricity storage devices, as well as provide incremental energy generation to offset
                      peak	demand	on	the	grid.	Intelligence	within	the	Smart	Grid	will	be	required	to	maintain	
                      reliability	and	stability	once	tens	of	thousands	of	microgeneration	devices	and	PHEVs	
                      are brought online.

                      Delay Construction of New Electricity-generation Facilities
                      and Transmission Infrastructure
                      It is estimated that the cost to renew the world’s aging transmission and distribution grid
                      will exceed $6 trillion over the next 25 years.16 Utility companies that implement elec-
                      tronic monitoring and management technologies can prolong the life of some electrical
                      grid components, thus delaying their replacement. This will reduce new construction
                      and installation costs for the grid and the CO2 emissions that accompany them.

                      First Steps
                      Practically	speaking,	most	of	the	technologies	required	to	create	a	Smart	Grid	are	avail-
                      able today. In fact, forward-looking utility companies are already using these technolo-
                      gies	to	deliver	solutions	to	their	customers.	For	example,	many	utility	companies	are	
                      offering demand-response programs for their corporate customers, and increasingly for
                      residential customers.
                      In addition, some utility companies are implementing large numbers of smart electric
                      meters to offer variable pricing to consumers and to reduce manual meter-reading costs.
                      While these first steps are encouraging, more needs to be done.

                      Making the Smart Grid a Reality
                      There is a growing consensus that as governments, regulators, utility companies, and
                      businesses work together, the Smart Grid will become a reality. This section provides
                      ideas and suggestions about how each stakeholder can remove barriers, streamline
                      processes, and institute programs that will speed development of the Smart Grid
                      (see	Figure	3).




16. World Energy Outlook, 2006.




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Figure 3. Suggested Actions for Key Stakeholders

            Government and                                 Electric Utility                  Technology
           Energy Regulators                                Companies                        Companies

 • Provide financial incentives to encourage        • Form partnerships to drive       • Partner to improve
   adoption                                           Smart Grid standards               systems integration
 • Improve collaboration and sharing of             • Become involved before           • Increase risk-taking to
   Smart Grid pilot project results among             Smart Grid technologies            speed development
   countries and states                               converge and standards
                                                                                       • Create new markets to
                                                      are set
 • Direct more R&D funding and incentives                                                ensure participation
   to renewable energy-generation and               • Plan for the financial impact      and success
   carbon-sequestration initiatives                   of the Smart Grid
 • Provide clear information and incentive
   programs to consumers to encourage
   installation of renewable energy
   generation in their homes
 • Encourage agreement on and adoption
   of critical technology standards
 • Consider variable, time-based electricity
   pricing as an alternative to flat-rate pricing
 • Consider policies that set targets for the
   percentage of electricity coming from
   renewable energy-generation sources


Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008


The Role of Government and Energy Regulators
Governments and energy regulators have important roles to play in accelerating
development	and	ensuring	success	of	the	Smart	Grid.	Here	are	several	ways	they	can	
participate:
1) Use financial incentives to encourage Smart Grid adoption. Typically, utility
   companies increase earnings by selling more electricity. This can be a disincentive
   for	utilities	to	promote	energy	efficiency.	Since	1982,	the	California	Public	Utilities	
   Commission (CPUC) has pursued policies that separate utility sales from profits as
   a means to accelerate energy-efficiency investments—allowing utility companies to
   recoup lost profits through minor rate increases.
   Instead of utility companies passing on the costs of building new plants to meet
   increased energy demand, consumers avoid the costs of new power plant construc-
   tion and benefit from decreased energy consumption. This provides an incentive
   for utility companies to accelerate development of energy-saving solutions that can
   increase profits, despite reducing overall energy sales.
   Some states are endorsing California’s approach, including Oregon, Maryland, Idaho,
   New York, and Minnesota. Other states are concerned that consumers’ electricity
   prices will rise excessively and are waiting to ensure that energy savings will more than
   offset implementation costs before allowing utility companies to increase customer



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                           tariffs. While the jury is still out, California’s per-capita energy use has remained rela-
                           tively flat over the last 30 years. By comparison, per-capita energy use in the rest
                           of the country has surged by 50 percent.17
                       2) Promote better collaboration and sharing of Smart Grid pilot project results
                          among countries and states. In particular, a multinational research oversight
                          organization that carefully measures and communicates costs, benefits, and risks
                          of all Smart Grid pilot projects to utility companies and regulators could accelerate
                          Smart	Grid	adoption	by	providing	quantitative	results	about	which	solutions	are	
                          most effective.
                       3) Direct more R&D funding and incentives to renewable energy-generation and
                          carbon-sequestration initiatives. Redirecting limited government funding away from
                          other programs is never easy. A recent Stern Review18 report found, however, that
                          postponing investments to develop greenhouse-gas-reducing technologies is a bad
                          economic decision. Stern estimates that each year-long delay in developing these
                          technologies will result in the need to spend several times that amount in the future.
                       4) Provide clear information and incentive programs to consumers to encourage
                          installation of renewable energy generation in their homes. Programs could include
                          marketing campaigns to build awareness and generate excitement, calculators to
                          show return on investment (ROI), and economic rebates and low-cost financing to
                          promote	purchases	of	energy-generation	equipment.
                       5) Encourage agreement on and adoption of critical technology standards. The build-
                          ing industry, for example, has been battling over control-system protocols for more
                          than 10 years. This has significantly delayed the introduction of integrated, energy-ef-
                          ficient building solutions. Today’s electrical grid has hundreds of different proprietary
                          data protocols that do not easily communicate with each other.
                       6) Consider variable, time-based electricity pricing as an alternative to flat-rate pric-
                          ing. This provides a more natural supply-and-demand market, where consumers can
                          choose to use less energy when the price is high, such as during hot summer after-
                          noons. Similarly, variable pricing would allow consumers to see the greenhouse gas
                          emissions resulting from their own electricity use, further encouraging conservation.
                       7) Consider policies that set targets for the percentage of electricity coming from
                          renewable energy-generation sources.	For	example,	the	2007	U.S.	Energy	Act	initial-
                          ly specified that 15 percent of all U.S. electricity must come from renewable energy
                          by 2020, of which 4 percent could be achieved by energy-efficiency solutions. This
                          requirement	was	removed	from	the	final	legislation.	If	passed,	these	types	of	policies	
                          can help accelerate investments in renewable and efficient energy solutions. The cost
                          to	implement	these	requirements,	however,	is	yet	to	be	determined.




17. “California’s Decoupling Policy,” California Public Utilities Commission, 2008, http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/cleanenergy/design/docs/Deccouplinglowres.pdf
18. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006.



                                                                                                                                                           12
White Paper




                     Role of Electric Utility Companies
                     Electric	utility	companies	also	play	a	central	role.	Here	are	three	ways	they	can	help	
                     make the Smart Grid a reality:
                     1) Drive Smart Grid standards and architectures by forming alliances and partnerships.
                         Many utility companies are now reaching out to other utility companies to learn from
                         their findings and share ideas. In addition, strategic partnerships, both within and
                         outside the utility industry, are being formed.
                         Utility companies should also partner more closely with energy regulators to deter-
                         mine their current position on recapturing costs through tariff increases, while at the
                         same time evaluating how to influence policies to accelerate their own Smart Grid
                         investment plans.
                     2) Evaluate Smart Grid solutions and vendors.
                         While there is still significant “churn” in various Smart Grid technologies, waiting a
                         couple years for the Smart Grid industry to converge around a single set of stan-
                         dards and solutions may leave some utility companies behind.
                     3) Plan for the financial impact of the Smart Grid on their organizations.
                         Utility companies should start by understanding the costs related to developing the
                         Smart Grid, including carbon pricing, grid upgrades, raw energy, and the indirect
                         cost of competition from other utility companies offering energy-efficient services.
                         Once these costs are understood, utility companies should estimate the economic
                         impact Smart Grid solutions could have on their profits. This exercise will help utility
                         companies	quantify	the	effect	of	the	Smart	Grid	on	their	bottom	line.

                     Role of Technology Companies
                     There are three imperatives for technology companies to accelerate development of
                     the Smart Grid:
                     1) Partner with other technology companies to improve systems integration.
                     	 	 	 rom	a	technology	perspective,	building	the	Smart	Grid	is	relatively	easy	since	most	
                         F
                         of the core technologies already exist. The real challenge is integrating the various
                         technologies into a single, working solution.
                     2) Increase risk-taking.
                         In a recent discussion with technology companies, Jim Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy,
                         said,	“Because	Smart	Grid	ideas	are	evolving	so	quickly,	technology	companies	
                         need to become more comfortable taking risks and applying their technologies
                         to new applications. Rather than wait for the perfect solution or comprehensive
                         standard to be developed, companies need to rapidly get their solutions into the
                         marketplace to be tested and vetted.”19


19.	 Jim	Rogers,	Duke	Energy	CEO,	December	2007.




                                                                                                                    13
White Paper




                       3) Create new markets.
                           Large, successful, and established technology companies often pursue a “fast
                           follower” strategy, waiting for markets to develop before they participate. This
                           approach is popular because it reduces risks and increases the probability of
                           success. The Smart Grid, however, may evolve in a way that negates the benefits
                           of using a fast-follower strategy.
                       	 	 	 he	core	technology	and	communications	standards	required	to	develop	the	Smart	
                           T
                           Grid are currently being developed. Once these standards are established, they will
                           be built into the power plants, substations, buildings, and power lines that make up the
                           electrical infrastructure. These assets have a useful life of more than 30 years—much
                           longer than the product lifecycles to which technology companies are accustomed—
                           making it difficult to enter the utility marketplace once it is established.

                       Conclusion
                       Energy is a critical concern to city leaders. The electricity and fuel used to power our
                       homes and buildings are the leading causes of greenhouse gas emissions by cities.
                       Rising demand for energy may significantly increase consumer costs. Aging grid infra-
                       structure raises the risk of power losses and resulting economic shortfalls.
                       Rising fuel costs, underinvestment in an aging infrastructure, and climate change are
                       all converging to create a turbulent period for the electrical power-generation industry.
                       To make matters worse, demand for electricity is forecast to exceed known committed
                       generation capacity in many areas across the United States.20 And, as utility companies
                       prepare to meet growing demand, greenhouse gas emissions from electricity genera-
                       tion may soon surpass those from all other energy sources.21
                       Fortunately,	the	creation	of	a	Smart	Grid	will	help	solve	these	challenges.	
                       A Smart Grid can reduce the amount of electricity consumed by homes and buildings,
                       and accelerate the adoption of distributed, renewable energy sources—all while
                       improving the reliability, security, and useful life of electrical infrastructure.
                       Despite its promise and the availability of most of the core technologies needed to
                       develop the Smart Grid, implementation has been slow. To accelerate development,
                       city, state, and federal governments, electric utility companies, public electricity
                       regulators, and IT companies must all come together and work toward a common goal.
                       The suggestions in this paper will help the Smart Grid become a reality that will ensure
                       we have enough power to meet demand, while at the same time reducing greenhouse
                       gases that cause global warming.


20. “Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2007–2016,” North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), October 2007.
21. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006.




                                                                                                                          RM/LW15156 1008



                                                                                                                                       14

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Connected and Sustainable Energy Whitepaper

  • 1. White Paper Connected and Sustainable Energy Written specifically for Connected Urban Development Global Conference 2008—Amsterdam Author Wes Frye Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group
  • 2.
  • 3. White Paper Connected and Sustainable Energy About Connected Urban Development Connected Urban Development (CUD) is a public-private partnership program focused on innovative use of information and communications technology (ICT) to make knowl- edge, people, traffic, and energy flow more efficiently. This increased efficiency enhances how people experience urban life, streamlines the management of cities, and decreases the urban environmental footprint. The program’s main success elements are: · Measuring CO2 emissions reduction resulting from operational implementation of CUD projects within cities. · Demonstrating the positive impact of ICT and broadband connectivity on climate change · Developing relevant thought leadership and replicable methodologies allowing CUD partner cities to learn from each other and share their experiences and best practices with cities around the world The initial scope of the program includes five major areas of focus: · Connected and Sustainable Work · Connected and Sustainable Mobility · Connected and Sustainable Energy · Connected and Sustainable Buildings · Connected and Sustainable ICT Infrastructure Context Cities around the world are realizing that energy consumed by buildings and homes is the leading cause of global-warming emissions. This includes electricity and fossil fuel used to light, heat, and power our homes, apartments, office buildings, and factories. In fact, New York City estimates that energy usage causes roughly 80 percent of its global- warming emissions and more than 40 percent of locally generated air pollution. By 2015, New York City estimates it will be pumping an additional 4.6 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year.1 The cause is a growing demand for energy, combined with aging electricity infrastructure. New York City’s electricity demand is forecast to grow 44 percent by 2030. Many plants that generate electric power are more than 30 years old (with outdated technologies), use 30 to 60 percent more fuel, and produce several times the air pollution of newer plants to generate the same amount of electricity. 1. PlaNYC, Office of Mayor Bloomberg, 2008, page 101. 1
  • 4. White Paper But energy poses additional challenges for city leaders. Our demand for electricity continues to grow, increasing consumer costs. New York City estimates that by 2015, the city’s annual electricity and heating bill will grow by $3 billion—translating into annual energy bills that are $300 to $400 higher per household. By 2030, New York City forecasts electricity costs will rise 60 percent above today’s. Clearly, city leaders working to reduce their impact on climate change need to focus carefully on how energy is generated, distributed, and consumed throughout their city. What can be done? Leading cities are creating dedicated ministries and departments to develop integrated strategies to meet our growing demand for energy while mitigat- ing its impact on climate change. There is no easy solution, and cities must focus both on reducing energy consumption of residents and industry while accelerating greener energy-generation plants. This paper presents an overview of emerging solutions for city leaders to reduce elec- tricity consumption, produce greener energy with lower carbon emissions, and improve the reliability of the electric grid. The Electric Grid Most of the world’s electricity delivery system or “grid” was built when energy was rela- tively inexpensive. While minor upgrades have been made to meet increasing demand, the grid still operates the way it did almost 100 years ago—energy flows over the grid from central power plants to consumers, and reliability is ensured by maintaining excess capacity. The result is an inefficient and environmentally wasteful system that is a major emitter of greenhouse gases, consumer of fossil fuels, and not well suited to distributed, renewable solar and wind energy sources. In addition, the grid may not have sufficient capacity to meet future demand. Several trends have combined to increase awareness of these problems, including greater recognition of climate change, commitments to reduce carbon emissions, rising fuel costs, and technology innovation. In addition, recent studies support a call for change: • Power generation causes 25.9 percent of global carbon (CO2) emissions.2 • CO2 emissions from electricity use will grow faster than those from all other sectors through 2050.3 • Forecast demand for electricity may exceed projected available capacity in the United States by 20154 (see Figure 1). 2. IPCC, 2007. 3. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006. 4. “Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2007–2016,” North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), October 2007. 2
  • 5. White Paper Figure 1. Projected Electricity Capacity versus Demand in the United States 1,100 1,050 Projected Potential Capacity 1,000 Projected Available Capacity Thousands of Megawatts High Demand Projection 950 Low Demand Projection 900 Historic Demand 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year Source: NERC, 2008; Cisco IBSG, 2008 Given this information, governments and regulators, utility companies, and technology firms are rethinking how the electricity grid should look. Already, utility companies and governments around the world are launching efforts to: • Increase distributed solar and wind power generation to increase the electrical supply without additional greenhouse gas emissions • Use plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) to generate and consume electric power intelligently • Sequester (scrub and store) the carbon from coal plant emissions • Use demand management to improve energy efficiency and reduce overall electricity consumption • Monitor and control the energy grid in near-real time to improve reliability and utilization, reduce blackouts, and postpone costly new upgrades For all of these efforts—solar and wind plants, PHEVs, active home-energy manage- ment, and grid monitoring—to work together in one integrated system, a new level of intelligence and communication will be required. For example: • Rooftop solar panels need to notify backup power generators within seconds that approaching clouds will reduce output. • The grid needs to notify PHEVs about the best time to recharge their batteries. • Utility companies need to communicate with and control appliances such as refrigerators and air conditioners during periods of peak electricity demand. 3
  • 6. White Paper • Factory operators must know the cost of electric power every few minutes to manage their energy use economically. • Homeowners need to become smart buyers and consumers of electricity by knowing when to adjust thermostats to optimize energy costs. Unfortunately, these activities cannot be achieved with the current energy grid. Today’s electric infrastructure simply cannot coordinate and control all the systems that will be attached to it. A new, more intelligent electric system or “Smart Grid” is required that combines information technology (IT) with renewable energy to significantly improve how electricity is generated, delivered, and consumed (see Figure 2). A Smart Grid provides utility companies with near-real-time information to manage the entire electrical grid as an integrated system—actively sensing and responding to changes in power demand, supply, costs, and emissions—from rooftop solar panels on homes, to remote, unmanned wind farms, to energy-intensive factories. A Smart Grid is a major advance from today, where utility companies have only basic information about how the grid is operating, with much of that information arriving too late to prevent a major power failure or blackout. Figure 2. Traditional Roles Are Reversed with a Smart Grid—Consumers Become Producers, and Information and Electricity Flow in Both Directions Smart Grid Diagram Electricity Flow Information Flow Low-energy Home with Microgeneration Grid Device Energy Storage Operation Center Large-scale Renewable Generation Distribution Coal Grid Sequestration Building as Sensors Power Plant Nuclear Plug-in Hybrid Power Plant Electric Vehicles Electric Public Transportation High-voltage DC Smart Grid Community Emissions (Energy Co-ops) Monitoring Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008. 4
  • 7. White Paper Components of a Smart Grid A Smart Grid comprises three major components: 1) demand management, 2) distrib- uted electricity generation, and 3) transmission and distribution grid management. 1) Demand Management: Reducing Electricity Consumption in Homes, Offices, and Factories Demand management works to reduce electricity consumption in homes, offices, and factories by continually monitoring electricity consumption and actively managing how appliances consume energy. It consists of demand-response programs, smart meters and variable electricity pricing, smart buildings with smart appliances, and energy dashboards. Combined, these innovations allow utility companies and con- sumers to manage and respond to variances in electricity demand more effectively. • Demand response—During periods of peak energy use, utility companies send electronic alerts asking consumers to reduce their energy consumption by turning off non-essential appliances. When the Smart Grid is fully developed, alert signals will be automatically sent to appliances, eliminating the need for manual intervention. If enough consumers comply with this approach, the reduction in power consumption could be enough to keep a typical utility company from building an additional power plant—the most expensive asset utility companies operate.5 To increase the number of consumers who comply, utility companies may offer cash payments or reduce consumers’ electric bills. • Smart meters and variable pricing—Today’s electricity prices on the wholesale market are volatile because they are determined by supply and demand, as well as by situations that depend on generation capacity, fuel prices, weather conditions, and demand fluctuations over time. On average, off-peak prices at night are 50 percent less than prices during the day. During demand peaks, prices can be many times greater than those of off-peak periods. Despite price fluctuations in wholesale markets, most retail consumers are currently charged a flat price for electricity regardless of the time of day or actual demand. Consumers, therefore, have no visibility into when energy is in short supply, and have little incentive to lower their energy use to reduce their energy bill while helping utility companies meet demand. To remedy this situation, utility companies are now replacing traditional mechanical electric meters with smart meters. These new devices allow utility companies to monitor consumer usage frequently and, more important, give customers the ability to choose variable-rate pricing based on the time of day. By seeing the real cost of energy, consumers can respond accordingly by shifting their energy consumption from high-price to low-price periods. 5. GridWise Demonstration Project Fast Facts,” Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, December 2007. “ 5
  • 8. White Paper This process, called “load shifting” or “load shedding,” can have the joint benefit of reducing costs for typical consumers while lowering demand peaks for utility companies. • Smart buildings with smart appliances—For decades, architects have designed passive, energy-efficient systems such as multi-pane windows, better insulation, and appliances that use less energy and are more friendly to the environment. Recent technology innovations now allow active monitoring and reduction of the energy consumed by appliances. Building control systems that manage various appliances— heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and lighting—also are converging onto a common IT infrastructure that allows these devices to communicate with each other to be more efficient and reduce waste. A manager of more than 100 government buildings, for example, was able to reduce energy consumption nearly 20 percent and save tens of millions of dollars annually simply by ensuring that his building systems were operating properly.6 This meant heaters and air conditioners were not running simultaneously, steam traps were not leaking, and ventilation fans were operational. • Energy dashboards and controllers—Online energy dashboards and controllers, already being developed, will provide real-time visibility into individual energy consumption and generation while automatically turning major appliances on and off, and adjusting thermostats to reduce energy use and lower CO2 emissions. A recent university study found that simple dashboards can encourage occupants to reduce energy use in buildings by up to 30 percent.7 Similarly, homeowners will have passive displays, such as the Ambient Orb, a countertop device that glows red when electricity costs are high and green when costs are low, to make the cost of energy more transparent for consumers. • Green IT—Electricity requirements for IT equipment, such as computers, printers, servers, and networking equipment, vary widely across building types. For example, restaurants, warehouses, and retail stores have much lower power consumption for IT equipment than office buildings and data centers. For office buildings, IT typically accounts for more than 20 percent of the energy used, and up to 70 percent in some offices.8 As HVAC and lighting systems become more efficient and the volume of IT gear in smart buildings grows, the portion of building energy use attributable to IT will continue to increase. Smart-building solutions that improve the energy efficiency of IT equipment include network-based power management, network printers, server virtualization, the procurement of energy-efficient equipment, and telecommuting. 6. State of Missouri, Dave Mosby, Director of the Division of Facilities Management and Design and Construction (DFMDC), 2007. 7. Oberlin College, 2005, http://www.oberlin.edu/dormenergy/news.htm 8. Cisco IBSG, 2008. 6
  • 9. White Paper 2) Distributed Electricity Generation: Accelerating Widespread Installation of Renewable Energy Sources • Renewable energy using microgeneration devices—Already, some homes and offices find it cost-effective to produce some or all of their own electricity using microgeneration devices—small-scale energy-generation equipment designed for use in homes and offices. Microgeneration devices primarily include rooftop solar panels, wind turbines, fossil fuel cogeneration plants, and soon, PHEVs that can generate electricity for sale back to the grid. These devices are becoming more affordable for residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Depending on the technology type and operating environment, microgene- ration devices can be cost-competitive compared to conventional generation methods. Even so, widespread adoption of these technologies will require government incen- tives, public awareness campaigns, and further technology development. When fully developed, a Smart Grid will allow owners of microgeneration devices and other energy-generation equipment to sell energy back to utility companies for a profit more easily. When this happens, consumers become an active part of the grid rather than being separate from it. Despite the obvious benefits, renewable energy generation also provides a unique challenge: wind and solar power are much more variable than conventional power plants. For example, when the wind stops blowing or the sky becomes overcast, these systems stop generating power, creating shortages in the electrical grid. To compensate, utility companies must be able to anticipate these shortages in time to start up conventional power plants to temporarily offset the energy deficit. The Smart Grid will integrate weather reports, real-time output monitoring, and grid-load balancing to respond to this variability proactively. • Storage and PHEVs—Until recently, pumped water storage was the only economi- cally viable way to store electricity on a large scale. With the development of PHEVs and electric cars, new opportunities will become available. For example, car batteries can be used to store energy when it is inexpensive and sell it back to the grid when prices are higher. For drivers, their vehicles would become a viable means to arbitrage the cost of power, while utility companies could use fleets of PHEVs to supply power to the grid to respond to peaks in electricity demand. • Smart Grid communities—A few forward-looking cities and communities, such as Boulder, Colorado in the United States, are exploring the formation of energy cooperatives that pair corporations and government facilities with residential homes to self-manage some of their energy needs.10 9. City of Boulder, Colorado, 2008. 7
  • 10. White Paper For example, business buildings and government facilities consume electricity primarily during normal working hours, while homes use it mostly during morning and evening hours. By aggregating the total energy consumption, energy co-ops can smooth some of the variability in total energy demand. Backup and alternative power sources in buildings could also provide power to homes during off-business hours, while homes could provide power to businesses during working hours. While the concept is yet to be fully proven, energy co-ops may offer a reasonable alternative to utility-only power, especially if local regulations do not yet require utility companies to buy back surplus power generated locally. 3) Transmission and Distribution Grid Management Utility companies are turning to IT solutions to monitor and control the electrical grid in real time. These solutions can prolong the useful life of the existing grid, delaying major investments needed to upgrade and replace current infrastructure. Until now, monitoring has focused only on high-voltage transmission grids. Increasing overall grid reliability and utilization, however, will also require enhanced monitoring of medium- and low-voltage distribution grids. • Grid monitoring and control—Expensive power outages can be avoided if proper action is taken immediately to isolate the cause of the outage. Utility companies are installing sensors to monitor and control the electrical grid in near-real time (seconds to milliseconds) to detect faults in time to respond. These monitoring and control systems are being extended from the point of transmission down to the distribution grid. Grid performance information is integrated into utility companies’ supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems to provide automatic, near-real-time electronic control of the grid. • Grid security and surveillance—Many of the assets used to generate and transmit electricity are vulnerable to terrorist attacks and natural disasters. Substations, transformers, and power lines are being connected to data networks, allowing utility companies to monitor their security using live video, tamper sensors, and active monitoring. Smart Grid Benefits A Smart Grid that incorporates demand management, distributed electricity generation, and grid management allows for a wide array of more efficient, “greener” systems to generate and consume electricity. In fact, the potential environmental and economic benefits of a Smart Grid are significant. A recent study, sponsored by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, provided homeowners with advanced technologies for accessing the power grid to monitor and adjust energy consumption in their homes. The average household reduced its annual electric bill by 10 percent.10 10. Department of Energy Putting Power in the Hands of Consumers through Technology,” Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, “ January 2008, http://www.pnl.gov/topstory.asp?id=285 8
  • 11. White Paper If widely deployed, this approach could reduce peak loads on utility grids up to 15 percent annually, which equals more than 100 gigawatts, or the need to build 100 large coal-fired power plants over the next 20 years in the United States alone. This could save up to $200 billion in capital expenditures on new plant and grid investments, and take the equivalent of 30 million autos off the road.11 Similarly, governments are trying to revitalize economic growth by attracting industries that will produce and build the Smart Grid. According to former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, “Just as a robust information economy was triggered by the introduction of the Internet, a dynamic, new, renewable energy economy can be stimulated by the develop- ment of an electranet or Smart Grid.”12 Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Worldwide demand for electric energy is expected to rise 82 percent by 2030.13 Unless revolutionary new fuels are developed, this demand will be met primarily by building new coal, nuclear, and natural gas electricity-generation plants. Not surprisingly, world CO2 emissions are estimated to rise 59 percent by 2030 as a result.14 The Smart Grid can help offset the increase in CO2 emissions by slowing the growth in demand for electricity. A Smart Grid will: • Enable consumers to manage their own energy consumption through dashboards and electronic energy advisories. More accurate and timely information on electricity pricing will encourage consumers to adopt load-shedding and load-shifting solutions that actively monitor and control energy consumed by appliances. • In deregulated markets, allow consumers to use information to shift dynamically between competing energy providers based on desired variables including energy cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and social goals. One possibility is an “eBay for electricity” where continual electronic auctions match energy consumers with producers. Users could include utility companies, homeowners with rooftop solar panels, and governments with landfills that reclaim methane gas. This open market approach could accelerate profitability and speed further investments in renewable energy generation. • Broadcast demand-response alerts to lower peak energy demand and reduce the need for utility companies to start reserve generators. Remote energy-management services and energy-control operations will also advise consumers, giving them the choice to control their homes remotely to reduce energy use. • Allow utility companies to increase their focus on “Save-a-Watt” or “Nega-Watt” programs instead of producing only power. These programs are effective because offsetting a watt of demand through energy efficiency can be more cost-effective and CO2-efficient than generating an extra watt of electricity.15 11. Ibid. 12. Al Gore, September 2006, http://thinkprogress.org/gore-nyu 13. International Energy Outlook 2008,” Energy Information Administration, 2008, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html 14. Ibid. 15. Jim Rogers, Duke Energy CEO, December 2007. 9
  • 12. White Paper Accelerate Adoption of Renewable Electricity Sources A Smart Grid will encourage home and building owners to invest in high-efficiency, low- emission microgeneration devices to meet their own needs, and to sell excess energy back to utility companies to offset peak demands on the electrical grid. This will reduce the need for new, large-scale power plants. Virtual power plants can also be created that include both distributed power production and energy-efficiency measures. In addition, a Smart Grid will accelerate the introduction of PHEVs to act as temporary electricity storage devices, as well as provide incremental energy generation to offset peak demand on the grid. Intelligence within the Smart Grid will be required to maintain reliability and stability once tens of thousands of microgeneration devices and PHEVs are brought online. Delay Construction of New Electricity-generation Facilities and Transmission Infrastructure It is estimated that the cost to renew the world’s aging transmission and distribution grid will exceed $6 trillion over the next 25 years.16 Utility companies that implement elec- tronic monitoring and management technologies can prolong the life of some electrical grid components, thus delaying their replacement. This will reduce new construction and installation costs for the grid and the CO2 emissions that accompany them. First Steps Practically speaking, most of the technologies required to create a Smart Grid are avail- able today. In fact, forward-looking utility companies are already using these technolo- gies to deliver solutions to their customers. For example, many utility companies are offering demand-response programs for their corporate customers, and increasingly for residential customers. In addition, some utility companies are implementing large numbers of smart electric meters to offer variable pricing to consumers and to reduce manual meter-reading costs. While these first steps are encouraging, more needs to be done. Making the Smart Grid a Reality There is a growing consensus that as governments, regulators, utility companies, and businesses work together, the Smart Grid will become a reality. This section provides ideas and suggestions about how each stakeholder can remove barriers, streamline processes, and institute programs that will speed development of the Smart Grid (see Figure 3). 16. World Energy Outlook, 2006. 10
  • 13. White Paper Figure 3. Suggested Actions for Key Stakeholders Government and Electric Utility Technology Energy Regulators Companies Companies • Provide financial incentives to encourage • Form partnerships to drive • Partner to improve adoption Smart Grid standards systems integration • Improve collaboration and sharing of • Become involved before • Increase risk-taking to Smart Grid pilot project results among Smart Grid technologies speed development countries and states converge and standards • Create new markets to are set • Direct more R&D funding and incentives ensure participation to renewable energy-generation and • Plan for the financial impact and success carbon-sequestration initiatives of the Smart Grid • Provide clear information and incentive programs to consumers to encourage installation of renewable energy generation in their homes • Encourage agreement on and adoption of critical technology standards • Consider variable, time-based electricity pricing as an alternative to flat-rate pricing • Consider policies that set targets for the percentage of electricity coming from renewable energy-generation sources Source: Cisco IBSG, 2008 The Role of Government and Energy Regulators Governments and energy regulators have important roles to play in accelerating development and ensuring success of the Smart Grid. Here are several ways they can participate: 1) Use financial incentives to encourage Smart Grid adoption. Typically, utility companies increase earnings by selling more electricity. This can be a disincentive for utilities to promote energy efficiency. Since 1982, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has pursued policies that separate utility sales from profits as a means to accelerate energy-efficiency investments—allowing utility companies to recoup lost profits through minor rate increases. Instead of utility companies passing on the costs of building new plants to meet increased energy demand, consumers avoid the costs of new power plant construc- tion and benefit from decreased energy consumption. This provides an incentive for utility companies to accelerate development of energy-saving solutions that can increase profits, despite reducing overall energy sales. Some states are endorsing California’s approach, including Oregon, Maryland, Idaho, New York, and Minnesota. Other states are concerned that consumers’ electricity prices will rise excessively and are waiting to ensure that energy savings will more than offset implementation costs before allowing utility companies to increase customer 11
  • 14. White Paper tariffs. While the jury is still out, California’s per-capita energy use has remained rela- tively flat over the last 30 years. By comparison, per-capita energy use in the rest of the country has surged by 50 percent.17 2) Promote better collaboration and sharing of Smart Grid pilot project results among countries and states. In particular, a multinational research oversight organization that carefully measures and communicates costs, benefits, and risks of all Smart Grid pilot projects to utility companies and regulators could accelerate Smart Grid adoption by providing quantitative results about which solutions are most effective. 3) Direct more R&D funding and incentives to renewable energy-generation and carbon-sequestration initiatives. Redirecting limited government funding away from other programs is never easy. A recent Stern Review18 report found, however, that postponing investments to develop greenhouse-gas-reducing technologies is a bad economic decision. Stern estimates that each year-long delay in developing these technologies will result in the need to spend several times that amount in the future. 4) Provide clear information and incentive programs to consumers to encourage installation of renewable energy generation in their homes. Programs could include marketing campaigns to build awareness and generate excitement, calculators to show return on investment (ROI), and economic rebates and low-cost financing to promote purchases of energy-generation equipment. 5) Encourage agreement on and adoption of critical technology standards. The build- ing industry, for example, has been battling over control-system protocols for more than 10 years. This has significantly delayed the introduction of integrated, energy-ef- ficient building solutions. Today’s electrical grid has hundreds of different proprietary data protocols that do not easily communicate with each other. 6) Consider variable, time-based electricity pricing as an alternative to flat-rate pric- ing. This provides a more natural supply-and-demand market, where consumers can choose to use less energy when the price is high, such as during hot summer after- noons. Similarly, variable pricing would allow consumers to see the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from their own electricity use, further encouraging conservation. 7) Consider policies that set targets for the percentage of electricity coming from renewable energy-generation sources. For example, the 2007 U.S. Energy Act initial- ly specified that 15 percent of all U.S. electricity must come from renewable energy by 2020, of which 4 percent could be achieved by energy-efficiency solutions. This requirement was removed from the final legislation. If passed, these types of policies can help accelerate investments in renewable and efficient energy solutions. The cost to implement these requirements, however, is yet to be determined. 17. “California’s Decoupling Policy,” California Public Utilities Commission, 2008, http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/cleanenergy/design/docs/Deccouplinglowres.pdf 18. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006. 12
  • 15. White Paper Role of Electric Utility Companies Electric utility companies also play a central role. Here are three ways they can help make the Smart Grid a reality: 1) Drive Smart Grid standards and architectures by forming alliances and partnerships. Many utility companies are now reaching out to other utility companies to learn from their findings and share ideas. In addition, strategic partnerships, both within and outside the utility industry, are being formed. Utility companies should also partner more closely with energy regulators to deter- mine their current position on recapturing costs through tariff increases, while at the same time evaluating how to influence policies to accelerate their own Smart Grid investment plans. 2) Evaluate Smart Grid solutions and vendors. While there is still significant “churn” in various Smart Grid technologies, waiting a couple years for the Smart Grid industry to converge around a single set of stan- dards and solutions may leave some utility companies behind. 3) Plan for the financial impact of the Smart Grid on their organizations. Utility companies should start by understanding the costs related to developing the Smart Grid, including carbon pricing, grid upgrades, raw energy, and the indirect cost of competition from other utility companies offering energy-efficient services. Once these costs are understood, utility companies should estimate the economic impact Smart Grid solutions could have on their profits. This exercise will help utility companies quantify the effect of the Smart Grid on their bottom line. Role of Technology Companies There are three imperatives for technology companies to accelerate development of the Smart Grid: 1) Partner with other technology companies to improve systems integration. rom a technology perspective, building the Smart Grid is relatively easy since most F of the core technologies already exist. The real challenge is integrating the various technologies into a single, working solution. 2) Increase risk-taking. In a recent discussion with technology companies, Jim Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy, said, “Because Smart Grid ideas are evolving so quickly, technology companies need to become more comfortable taking risks and applying their technologies to new applications. Rather than wait for the perfect solution or comprehensive standard to be developed, companies need to rapidly get their solutions into the marketplace to be tested and vetted.”19 19. Jim Rogers, Duke Energy CEO, December 2007. 13
  • 16. White Paper 3) Create new markets. Large, successful, and established technology companies often pursue a “fast follower” strategy, waiting for markets to develop before they participate. This approach is popular because it reduces risks and increases the probability of success. The Smart Grid, however, may evolve in a way that negates the benefits of using a fast-follower strategy. he core technology and communications standards required to develop the Smart T Grid are currently being developed. Once these standards are established, they will be built into the power plants, substations, buildings, and power lines that make up the electrical infrastructure. These assets have a useful life of more than 30 years—much longer than the product lifecycles to which technology companies are accustomed— making it difficult to enter the utility marketplace once it is established. Conclusion Energy is a critical concern to city leaders. The electricity and fuel used to power our homes and buildings are the leading causes of greenhouse gas emissions by cities. Rising demand for energy may significantly increase consumer costs. Aging grid infra- structure raises the risk of power losses and resulting economic shortfalls. Rising fuel costs, underinvestment in an aging infrastructure, and climate change are all converging to create a turbulent period for the electrical power-generation industry. To make matters worse, demand for electricity is forecast to exceed known committed generation capacity in many areas across the United States.20 And, as utility companies prepare to meet growing demand, greenhouse gas emissions from electricity genera- tion may soon surpass those from all other energy sources.21 Fortunately, the creation of a Smart Grid will help solve these challenges. A Smart Grid can reduce the amount of electricity consumed by homes and buildings, and accelerate the adoption of distributed, renewable energy sources—all while improving the reliability, security, and useful life of electrical infrastructure. Despite its promise and the availability of most of the core technologies needed to develop the Smart Grid, implementation has been slow. To accelerate development, city, state, and federal governments, electric utility companies, public electricity regulators, and IT companies must all come together and work toward a common goal. The suggestions in this paper will help the Smart Grid become a reality that will ensure we have enough power to meet demand, while at the same time reducing greenhouse gases that cause global warming. 20. “Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2007–2016,” North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), October 2007. 21. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006. RM/LW15156 1008 14