Slidedeck complete final

RAMSES SLIDEDECK
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and
Sustainable Development for Cities
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities

The RAMSES Slidedeck
The RAMSES Slidedeck is meant to support cities (including municipal
staff, policy makers and other stakeholders) to explain the importance of climate
adaptation to different stakeholders by:
- Introducing the main topics tackled in the RAMSES Project
- Raising awareness on crucial policy-relevant aspects of climate
adaptation
Available for downloading and consulting
on the RAMSES website!
http://www.ramses-cities.eu/

The RAMSES Slidedeck II
The RAMSES Slidedeck is divided by topic and can be used flexibly by different
stakeholders including:
• Municipal staff;
• Policy makers;
• Adaptation practitioners;
• Researchers;
• Etc.
The slides are complemented by longer descriptions of the topics available in
the „notes“ window. The original sources of the information are always
referenced so that they can be easily consulted.

RAMSES Slidedeck III
SLIDEDECK INDEX:
- Introduction, cities and climate change
- Results and tools produced by the RAMSES Project
- Understanding Risks in Cities
- Adaptation Options
- Health Adaptation to climate change
- Estimating the health impacts
of climate change (Health Assessment Tool)

SlideDeck
INTRODUCTION – CITIES AND CLIMATE
CHANGE

Climate Change Impacts in Europe
The Arctic:
- Temperature rise much greater than the global
average
- Decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage
- Decline in Greenland ice sheet
- Decreased permafrost areas
- Increased risk of biodiversity loss
- Intensified shipping and exploitation of oil and gas
resources
Coastal Zones and Regional Seas:
- Sea-level rise
- Increase in sea surface temperatures
- Increase in ocean acidity
- Northward migration of fish and plankton
species
- Changes in phytoplankton communities
- Increasing risk for fish stocks
North-Western Europe:
- Increase in winter precipitation and river flow
- Increase in river flow
- Northward migration of species
- Decreased energy demand for heating
- Increased risk of river and coastal flooding
Mediterranean Region:
- Temperature rise is greater than the European average
- Decreased annual precipitation
- Decreased annual river flow
- Increased risk of biodiversity loss
- Increased risk of desertification
- Increased water demand for agriculture
- Decreased crop yield
- Increased risk of forest fires
- Increased mortality from heat waves
- Expansion of habitats for southern disease vectors
- Decreased hydropower potential
- Decreased summer tourism and potential
increase in other seasons
Northern Europe:
- Temperature rise much greater than the global
average
- Decrease in snow, lake and river ice cover
- Increased river flows
- Northward movement of species
- Increased crop yields
- Decreased energy demand for heating
- Increased hydropower potential
- Increased risk of damage from winter storms
- Increased summer tourism
Mountain Areas:
- Temperature rise greater than the European average
- Decrease in glacier extent and volume
- Decrease in mountain permafrost areas
- Upward shift of plant and animal species
- High risk of species extinction in Alpine regions
- Increased risk of soil erosion
- Decrease in ski tourism
Central and Eastern Europe:
- Increased warm temperature extremes
- Decreased summer precipitation
- Increased water temperature
- Increased risk of forest fires
- Decrease in the economic value of forests
Source: EEA, 2015e.

Urban Agglomeration Projections
Climate change is leading to changes in weather patterns and to an apparent increase in
extreme weather events. Research conducted by RAMSES has shown:
 A rise in the number, frequency and intensity of heat waves
 An increase in the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon
 Urban areas experience twice as many heat wave days as their rural surroundings
 Towards the end of the century, the number of heat wave days is expected to increase
by a factor of nearly ten (one month or more per year)
 Increased mortality rates during heat waves (e.g 140% of heat-related excess
mortality during the period from 1 to 19 August 2003).
 Towards the end of the century, when cosidering the effect of climate change alone,
PM10 concentrations are expected to rise by approximately 0.3 ug/m3 during the
summer and to decrease by 1.1 ug/m3 during the winter.

Local Level as a Driver
Global phenomenon
Influenced by urban landscape
Affecting regional climate patterns
Frequency of hotter days and extreme rainfall or drought episodes
Geography, environmental and social determinants, population
density, degree of soil sealing, heat conserving urban
materials, urban geometry and abundant heat sources
Icons made by Eucalyp, Freepik and Zlatko Najdenovski from www.flaticon.com

Due to the varying…
 severity and nature of
climate impacts between regions
 urban landscapes
Local Level as a Driver
Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com

SlideDeck
RESULTS AND TOOLS PRODUCED BY THE
RAMSES PROJECT

All available on the
project website!
http://www.ramses-cities.eu/
RAMSES – Project Outcomes
RAMSES‘ Outcomes – valuable collection of reports and resources:
• Modeling climate projections and scenarios
• Resilient architecture and infrastructure
• Cost evaluation and benefits
• Health costs evaluation
• High-level vulnerability assessments
• Vulnerability analyses in London, Antwerp and Bilbao (high spatial resolution)
• Analysis of political frameworks and decision-making tools

RAMSES – Toolbox and Training
Main results of the RAMSES project:
HANDBOOK
…summarizes and presents the RAMSES findings to municipal staff and policy makers
…explains how to approach the adaptation process
TRAINING PACKAGE
…proposes concrete activities to operationalize the RAMSES findings into a support mechanism
for local decision-making
…explains how to approach the adaptation process
SLIDEDECK
…provides local municipal staff with a complete collection of resources to make the wide-
reaching results of the project accesible and usable
AUDIO-VISUAL GUIDANCE (www.on-urban-resilience.eu)
…offers additional information on the different relevant sectors for adaptation planning by experts
interviewed by the RAMSES Consortium on several occasions.

RAMSES Handbook and Training
Package
Frames the adaptation process through the Urban Adaptation Support Tool
(UAST) – the official methodology used by the Covenant of Mayors for Climate
and Energy initiative – which provides a step-by-step guidance through an
adaptation planning and implementation cycle.

SlideDeck
UNDERSTANDING RISKS IN CITIES

Is not just a function of hazard…
…also of socio-economic vulnerabilities
Cities on Risk
Source: IPCC WGII-AR5 (2014)

In this phase of the process the idea is addressing the following questions:
- How is climate change going to affect my city?
- Which areas and sectors of activity would potentially be more affected?
- Which are more vulnerable?
- To what extent is the city capable to cope with it and react?
Risk Analysis Methodology
Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation
2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step

STEP I - Hazard and exposure
Identification of the key hazards that our city must face and the degree of its
exposure to those hazards.
Exposure refers to the presence of people, livelihoods, species or
ecosystems, environmental services, resources, infrastructure, or economic
assets, social, or cultural sites that could be affected or adversely impacted by an
event.

STEP I - Hazard and exposure
The following activities will be needed:
• Climate scenarios and projections at the local level
• Impacts modelling and local studies (hazard analysis)
• Threshold definition
• Identify/localise the receptor of the impact (exposure)

STEP II - Vulnerability assessment
Vulnerability refers to the propensity or predisposition of a given system to
be affected by a threat. The vulnerability of a territory depends on the sensitivity
or susceptibility to damage and the ability of such territory to cope and adapt.
 Sensitivity or susceptibility is the degree in which a system or specie is affected in a positive or
negative way by the variability of the climate variables.
 Adaptive capacity makes reference to the capacity of socio-ecological systems, institutions,
human beings and whatever other organism to adapt to the potential damages of climate change,
seize opportunities or respond to its consequences.
Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, adaptive capacity)

STEP II - Vulnerability assessment
The following activities will be needed:
• Definition of the data model and selection indicators for the evaluation of
sensitivity and adaptive capacity
• Aggregation of indicators and results of vulnerability assessment per
every threat. (optional)
• Formulation of vulnerability to a threat or hotspot detection

STEP III - Risk definition
Recently and according to the latest IPCC 2014 definition, risk is
expressed as the function of hazard, vulnerability and exposure.
Traditionally in risk assessment, the consequences have been valued according
to economic estimates of damages and losses by an extreme
event. However, the non-monetary evaluation of consequences may
be considered.
Risk = f (hazard, exposure, vulnerability)
Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com

STEP III - Risk definition
The following activities are needed:
• Description of the components
of risk and generating information
• Construction of the model and
risk analysis
• Risk estimation

The climate risk evaluation methodology can be applied in all EU cities to identify
priorities for national and EU adaptation investments combining hazard,
exposure and vulnerability information in order to:
 Identification of risk priorities. A scoring methodology can be used to assess the relative
priorities for cities in terms of most significant hazards, or whether to focus on measures to
manage a hazard or increase vulnerability.
 Integration of exposure, vulnerability and hazard datasets to evaluate risks;
 Identification of sets of measures
This methodology is used to identify risk and combined risks for e.g. heat-waves,
droughts and floods (fluvial, coastal or pluvial)

References
RAMSES Project – D1.3: Methods inventory for infrastructure assessment
http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/
RAMSES Project – D3.1: High level quantified assessment of key vulnerabilities and priority risks for urban areas int he
EU
RAMSES Project – D4.2: Agglomeration-scale urban climate and air quality projections
RAMSES Project – D4.3: Urban adaptation effects on urban climate
RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change
EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change
EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016
WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate change
http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-health-in-europe-
from-climate-change
WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance
http://www.euro.who.int/en/publications/abstracts/heathealth-action-plans

SlideDeck
ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Adaptation options can be divided into three main categories:
Grey infrastructure corresponds to engineered physical interventions to make the
city more resilient to extreme events (e.g., dykes, water tanks, etc.),
Green and blue infrastructure makes the city more resilient and achieves
sustainability through the maintenance, restoration and insertion of nature into urban
spaces (e.g., greenways, open spaces, greenbelts, urban green spaces, cultural landscapes
etc.), thereby improving wellbeing and the environmental conditions of urban areas,
Soft measures are those that facilitate the implementation of “grey” and “green”
measures and include the design and application of policy procedures, such as: land-use
controls, information dissemination, economic incentives to reduce vulnerability, and
measures that try to avoid mal-adaptation. These measures can be perceived as “success
factors” for an effective implementation of an adaptation plan.
Adaptation Options

1. Coping adaptation mostly means responding to the damage arising from a disaster
and recovering afterwards. Purely coping approaches bring short-term benefits that decrease
to zero with each new disaster. They therefore imply high costs over time.
Adaptation Options

2. Incremental adaptation builds on existing adaptation measures and known
solutions by improving them, bit by bit, and increasing their capacity to avoid damage under
future levels of risk. Incremental approaches work effectively up to certain risk levels. Benefits
level off over time and higher risk levels will require additional coping measures.
Adaptation Options

3. Transformative adaptation follows a broader and more systematic approach by
addressing the root causes of vulnerability to climate change. These are often the result of
human actions such as settling in risk-prone areas, inadequate building design or other
behaviors that aggravate the impact of climate change (EEA, 2016). Transformative
approaches need some time and efforts at the beginning, but then benefits increase and are
stable. Very little coping is needed to buffer extremely high risk levels.
Adaptation Options

Urban Planning Strategies
Urban planning as a crucial element for improving urban space:
- Quality
- Livability
- Vitality
- Attractiveness
- Effectiveness
Icon made by Zlatko Najdenovski from www.flaticon.com

Urban Planning Measures
Parks
Tree-Lined Streets
Green Facades and
Green Roofs
Icons made by Zlatko Najdenovski and Freepik from www.flaticon.com

Urban Planning Measures
Orientation and
Aspect Ratio (H/W)
Finishing Materials
Citizens’
Behavior

Planning and Implementation
Pathways
• Seek agreements with
stakeholders
• Identify and make use of
entry points for
adaptation
• Timeline and timeframe
of adaptation options
• Definition of adaptation
pathways
Implementation
• Identifying key
instruments for
adaptation
• Mainstreaming
adaptation in existing
instruments
• Developing new
instruments if needed
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

Adaptation Pathways Approach

Vision Construction Methodology
1. City Vulnerability:
Framework description
in order to identify:
Hotspots/key
problems/challenges
related to the city
functions/functionalitie
s
(beyond impacts)
2. Vision:
Framework of
generic
visions and
elements
combined in order to
convert previous
hotspots into
positive statements
about the future
resilient city
3. Backcasting:
To detect
triggers of
change:
conditions for
reaching the
future city vision

Evaluation of Adaptation Costs
Methodologically, there are different ways of evaluating adaptation options and their
costs. They offer different ways of comparing the above-listed parameters:
•ACCs are given by the cost-benefit ratio as a function of
averted loss. Measures with cost-benefit ratio less than 1
have an economic benefit (Haas et al., 2009). The decision
maker can read the ACCs by balancing the cost-benefit
ratio and the overall averted loss.
Adaptation
Cost Curves
(ACCs)
•Optimal adaptation minimizes the total costs, i.e. the sum of
adaptation costs and residual loss. It can be assumed that
more effective measures are more costly. In addition, more
effective measures lead to smaller residual loss. In
combination, the total costs should exhibit an optimum.
2. Optimal
Adaptation
•While, by definition, any adaptation action should lead to
reduced expected loss, generally, an investment (and
maintenance) is required. Amortization describes the point
in time when both balance each other.
3.
Amortization

“ADAPTATION COST CURVES”
Adaptation Cost Curves (ACCs) have been proposed as a tool to assist decision-
makers in understanding adaptation options in terms of costs and benefits.
ACCs are obtained by plotting the cost-benefit ratio as a function of the averted
loss (benefit) for each adaptation measure. Thus, in order to generate ACC, a set
of key quantities is necessary, namely, the expected loss, the averted loss (the
residual loss is given by the expected loss minus the averted loss), and the
adaptation costs.

References
RAMSES Project – D 5.2: Economic costs of climate change in European cities
RAMSES Project – D 5.3: Adaptation Cost Curves

SlideDeck
HEALTH ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE
CHANGE

Climate change has already affected human health over the last decades, directly by
changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, rising sea levels and
more frequent extreme events); indirectly by disrupting basic determinants
of health like safe drinking water, clean air and food security and quality; and also by
shifting patterns of disease vectors and other effects in disease
transmission

Climate Change as a Health Threat
Two crucial dimensions:
Risk of climate change on
critical infrastructure vital for public health
Climate change as stressor to current
health dynamics
Icons made by Vectors Market and Freepik from www.flaticon.com

Source: adapted from Barata et al. 2011, based on multiple sources
Health Effects
Drivers Health outcomes Impact Rationale
Temperature
extremes
Cardiorespiratory mortality and morbidity,
heat exhaustion, etc.
Urban heat
island effect
Weather
extremes (wind,
storms, floods)
Mortality and morbidity from drowning,
trauma, infectious diseases, long-term
mental health issues, etc.
Population
density, soil
sealing,
placement.
Drought Malnutrition, etc. Ambiguous
Water quality Water-borne diseases, including diarrheal
illnesses, etc.
Wastewater and
effluents
Air quality Cardiorespiratory mortality and morbidity,
etc.
Pol. sources,
Pop. density
Aeroallergens Allergies, asthma, etc. Ambiguous
Vectors Vector-borne diseases (e.g. Dengue,
Malaria, etc.)
Limited breeding
in general

Heat Waves and Public Health
Recent heat-waves in Europe have led to
a rise in related morbidity and mortality
…but the adverse health effects of hot
weather and heat-waves are largely
preventable, e.g. though:
 health system preparedness
coordinated with meteorological
early warning systems
 timely public and medical advice
 improvements to housing and
urban planning
HEAT-HEALTH ACTION PLAN
Factors affecting behaviour
Physical or cognitive impairment, Psychiatric illness, Infants
Increased heat gain
Exercise, outdoor activity, medications
Factor influencing cardiac output
Cardiovascular diseases, medications
Factors reducing plasma volume
Diarrhoea, pre-existing renal or metabolic disease, medications
Factors affecting sweating
Dehydration, ageing, diabetes, scleroderma, cystic fibrosis,
medications
36,1-
37,8 °C
Source: WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance

European Cities in Action
Source: http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/tools/urban-adaptation
Key interventions:
 Emergency preparadness and response management
 Strengthening health systems to prevent and treat
diseases
 Preventive measures:
 Safer housing
 Flood protection
 Vector control
 Improved surveillance
 Early warning information systems
 Community-based disaster risk reduction

SlideDeck
ESTIMATING THE HEALTH IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE (HEALTH
ASSESSMENT TOOL)

 Cost of premature mortality
 Loss of welfare to society (through willingness to pay)
 Foregone income, capital formation
 Cost associated to morbidity
 Full income approach
 COI – Cost of Illness: Captures costs related to a case of the outcome(s) considered.
 Main categories of economic evidence relevant to health adaptation
 Cost of inaction
 Cost of adaptation
 Benefits of adaptation
There are two options to measure the costs of health damage from climate
change:
a) estimating the economy-wide health costs (with an integrated assessment tool)
b) estimating the health costs for a part of the society (following "microeconomic" methods)
The Economics of Health Adaptation
Direct costs
Indirect costs
Intangible costs

Evaluation of the economic consequences of disease and injury resulting from climate-related health
outcomes
 Based on a limited number of inputs (applicable also in settings of low data availability)
The valuation methods are based on mainstream bottom-up techniques of a microeconomic
character
 That is, on aggregating partial estimates of the cost of increased morbidity and its consequences,
and of the cost of increased premature mortality risk
The resulting outputs are cost-effectiveness ratio and partial benefit-to-cost ratios
 Provide estimates for advocacy by local governments and other stakeholders and early
adaptation guidance
Ultimately, this methodology is part of the comprehensive RAMSES toolkit for urban adaptation, with
the overall goal of facilitating local engagement in adaptation planning, policy and implementation.
Assessment Tool
Download RAMSES Assessment tool
http://www.ramses-
cities.eu/index.php?eID=tx_nawsecuredl&u=0&file=fileadmin/fe_file_repository/06_Workpackage_6/Deliverable%206.2/RAMSES_tool.zip&t=1484320504&hash=c33547092c65
58db44b8a4be97a2787b04bf67e7
!

Pathway Overview
Step 1:
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of climate
change
Step 2:
Calculate cost of
adaptation to
avoid health
impacts
Step 3:
Estimate benefits
of adaptation
Step 4:
Calculate and
report indicators
to support
decision-making

Step 1
Step 1: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate
change
Estimate cost due to premature mortality
Estimate healthcare costs due to attributable illness
Estimate cost of lost productive time associated to illness
Calculate total annualized cost of health impacts of climate change
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of
climate change

Step 1:
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of climate
change
Step 2
Step 2: Calculate cost of adaptation to avoid health impacts
Lay out all planned interventions contributing to the minimization of health impacts
of climate change
Calculate total annualized costs of adaptation including one-off investments
and annual costs
Calculate
cost of
adaptation to
avoid health
impacts

Step 1:
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of climate
change
Step 2:
Calculate cost of
adaptation to
avoid health
impacts
Step 3
Step 3: Estimated benefits of adaptation
Translate avoided mortality and mobidity into economic benefits (avoided costs)
Estimate
benefits of
adaptation

Step 1:
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of climate
change
Step 2:
Calculate cost of
adaptation to
avoid health
impacts
Step 3:
Estimate benefits
of adaptation
Step 4
Step 4: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate
change
Cost-effectiveness of measures
(health impacts averted per monetary unit)
Cost-benefit ratio
(savings through averted impats vs. Cost adaptation)
Calculate and
report
indicators to
support
decision-
making

Before Starting: Scoping the Cost
Assessment
Geographical scope
All levels of application are possible (e.g. provincial, regional, etc.), however the main geographic scope of this
tool is the local level
Determinate the focus area: urban agglomerations or administrative boundaries?
Population
Decide whether you cosider the whole population or parts of it (and if relevant, the type of
disaggregation)

Before Starting: Scoping the Cost Assessment
Health outcomes considered
Estimation of the impacts on health of climate change or specific climate-related exposures is needed as basis
for the cost assessment > guidance materials as well as national and subnational studies available
Timeframe of analysis and discount rates
Applicable prospectively and retrospectively
(the start year for the damage cost assessment can be in the past, and the timeframe can lead up to the present or future)
For prospective timeframes longer timeframes (e.g. by end of century) are more appropriate
Icons made by Dimi Kazak and Madebyoliver from www.flaticon.com

Outputs of the Assessment Tool
 Total cost of health damage attributed to
climate change for the selected outcomes
(Average annual undiscounted health cost)
 Health damage cost avertible through
adaptation
(Avertible average annual undiscounted health cost)
 Benefit-cost ratio
 Cost per case averted
(Reflecting costs and health benefits over 15 years, or until 2100)
 Cost per death averted
(Reflecting costs and health benefits over 15 years, or until 2100)

References
http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-
health-in-europe-from-climate-change

References
RAMSES Project – D1.3: Methods inventory for infrastructure assessment
RAMSES Project – D3.1: High level quantified assessment of key vulnerabilities and priority risks for urban areas int he EU
RAMSES Project – D4.2: Agglomeration-scale urban climate and air quality projections
RAMSES Project – D4.3: Urban adaptation effects on urban climate
http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-health-in-
europe-from-climate-change

References
RAMSES Project – D 5.2: Economic costs of climate change in European cities
RAMSES Project – D 5.3: Adaptation Cost Curves

References

Contact us
The work leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under
Grant Agreement No. 308497 (Project RAMSES - Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities).
The content in this leaflet reflects the author’s views. The European Commission is not liable for any
use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Research Domain: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Telegraphenberg A 31
14473 Potsdam - Germany
Prof. Dr. Jürgen Kropp
E-Mail: nsp@pik-potsdam.de
www.ramses-cities.eu/

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