1. FutureCBC Food Security 2040 FUTURE TRENDS, RISK, CHANGE MANAGEMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 25 th March 2009, North Wales Conference Centre Llandudno

2. 1. FOOD SECURITY 2040 disruption to food supplies from centralised distribution centres. vegetable, fish, meat and milk suppliers struggling to cope with high haulage costs. unreliable supplies of fuel and high prices undersupply of food supplies from abroad and problems with food quality climate chain impacts on food supply chain. challenge to local partnership under duty of well-being. statutory food security plan required

3. 2. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY 2040 agricultural community struggling to respond to demand for food decline in number of working farms and agricultural skills and workforce shortage difficulty maintaining business due to high and insecure energy supply local supply of food to retailers and public bodies slowly growing climate change increased growing season, crop range and variety water supply problems – conservation needed

4. 3. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL TRENDS high food prices causing food poverty in poorer areas of FutureCBC empty shelves from just in time systems causing civil disturbance early signs of local economy responding through localised supply chains high costs and supply issues forced food retailers out of business 2008 recession still affecting competitiveness. failure of pension funds climate-induced migration =6,000 additional migrants over the next 5 years local services stretched

5. 4. CRUNCH ISSUES FOR PARTNERS food procurement for school meals, meals on wheels, day centres increasingly difficult nutritional problems in school children and elderly in some parts of community obesity timebomb impacting on health services in FutureCBC – 30% of population obese with 40% suffering from diabetes health services struggling to finance demand food security plan required

6. 5. QUESTIONS AND PREPAREDNESS? 1. List the big questions which come out of this scenario for the FutureCBC partnership? What are the top five priority issues you have identified? Long term (5): Short term (5): 2. Assume that FutureCBC wouldn’t have been so unprepared for this scenario. What actions might have been implemented before 2040 to reduce exposure to the risks in this scenario?

8. 7. RESOURCES, ACTION, POLICY RESPONSIBILITY? aligning organisational resources to deal with food security and building capacity in the partnership – how might you approach this? What practical things can you do immediately to ease the situation? What long term measures and policies might you develop to ensure food security? How might this scenario change your organisation’s role within the Partnership ?

9. 8. MESSAGES FOR PLENARY What are the 5 key pieces of learning for the group from this exercise? What immediate actions can be carried out by members of the Forum to increase preparedness for food security in the future? Learning 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Actions 1. 2. 3.