1. FutureCBC Carbon Reduction 2025 FUTURE TRENDS, RISK, CHANGE MANAGEMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 25 th March 2009, North Wales Conference Centre Llandudno

2. 1. CARBON REDUCTION IMPERATIVE climate change is high on the political agenda annual temperatures have continued to rise up to 3.5 o C from 1990 levels. drastic carbon reduction of 9% per annum will avoid dangerous climate change 2008 Climate Change Act = new statutory duty placed on Local Partnerships statutory 9% annual carbon emission reduction duty.

3. 2. ENERGY SECURITY UK is importing 80% of its fuel (mainly gas) via a pipeline from Russia. little microgeneration or large-scale wind or tidal power nuclear power stations has been delayed through political pressure Electricity supply in Wales is from a few ageing power stations supplied by dwindling Welsh coal reserves and imported gas. Short term economic benefits from revitalised coal production Gas supplies unreliable due to political tension between Russia and EU

4. 3. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL TRENDS 2008 recession still affecting competitiveness. failure to secure investment in the FutureCBC infrastructure failure of pension funds heat-related health problems acute fuel poverty in warmer summers climate-induced migration =6,000 additional migrants over the next 5 years local services stretched

5. 4. POOR CARBON RECORD fragmented household energy efficiency measures have not brought consumption down. new housing built without microgeneration & high energy use has continued unabated. affordable homes urgently needed FutureCBC’s record on carbon reduction questioned by auditors renewables opportunities in stadium and shopping centre ignored

7. annual audit of performance on the new duty significant financial penalties to the partnership should they fail to respond. two year lead-in period has just started for the partnership to plan its strategic and practical response. national significance in interpreting the new duty partnership need a strategic and decisive response to carbon reduction and energy security 6. CARBON ACCOUNTABILITY

8. 7. QUESTIONS AND PREPAREDNESS? 1. List the big questions which come out of this scenario for the FutureCBC partnership? What are the top five priority issues you have identified? Long term (5): Short term (5): 2. Assume that FutureCBC wouldn’t have been so unprepared for this scenario. What actions might have been implemented before 2025 to reduce exposure to the risks in this scenario?

10. 9. RESOURCES, ACTION, POLICY RESPONSIBILITY? aligning organisational resources to deal with carbon reduction and building capacity in the partnership – how might you approach this? What practical things can you do immediately to ease the situation? What long term measures and policies might you develop to ensure carbon reduction? How might this scenario change your organisation’s role within the Partnership ?

11. 10. MESSAGES FOR PLENARY What are the 5 key pieces of learning for the group from this exercise? What immediate actions can be carried out by your organisation to increase preparedness for carbon reduction in the future? Learning 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Actions 1. 2. 3.