Sharp slowdown in global GDP growth in 2023 IN 2023, WORLD GDP WILL SLOW TO 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR, 9 TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT LESS THAN ESTIMATED FOR 2022, WELL BELOW THE RATE FORECAST BEFORE THE WAR. IN 2024, THE INCREASE WILL BE 2.7% Slight recovery in 2024 with real income growth and moderating inflationary pressures Unbalanced growth among regions Asia, the engine of growth in 2023*. The economies of Europe and the Americas slowing down Tightening of financial market conditions CAUSED BY THE ACCELERATED PACE OF MONETARY POLICY NORMALIZATION IN THE MAJOR ECONOMIES TO CONTROL ELEVATED INFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND INCREASED RISK AVERSION Increased financial market volatility The US dollar has appreciated against most advanced economy currencies since May Rapid increase in long-term real interest rates in the US, UK and Eurozone Rising corporate bond yields

1. Annual inflation rate
2022* 2023* 2024*
OECD 9.4 6.5 5.1
US 6.2 3.5 2.6
Eurozone 8.3 6.8 3.4
2.8
-3.2
5.9
3.1
2.2
2.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2019 2020 2021 2022* 2023* 2024*
Forecast Nov-22
Forecast Dec-21
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
US
Eurozone
UK
OECD Economic Outlook
ECONOMY
In data
Sharp slowdown in global GDP growth in 2023
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD,
2022.
INFLATION
OECD AVERAGE
2023*
6.5%
y-o-y
US → 3.5% and Eurozone → 6.8%
1.3%
SPAIN GDP
GROWTH
2023*
y-o-y, 3.4 pp lower than forecast for
2022 and 4 tenths lower than
estimated for 2024
SPAIN CPI
2023* and 2024*
4.8%
y-o-y, vs. 8.6% in 2022*
GLOBAL GDP
GROWTH
2023*
y-o-y, 0.9 pp lower
than forecast for 2022
2.2%
* Forecasts
IN 2023, WORLD GDP WILL SLOW TO 2.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR, 9 TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT LESS THAN ESTIMATED FOR 2022, WELL
BELOW THE RATE FORECAST BEFORE THE WAR. IN 2024, THE INCREASE WILL BE 2.7%
* Forecasts
Slight recovery in 2024 with real income growth and
moderating inflationary pressures
GDP % y-o-y change
Unbalanced growth among regions
Points of contribution to global growth
2.4
1.4 1.5 1.6
2.2
1.0
0.2 0.5
5.9
3.1
2.2
2.7
2021 2022* 2023* 2024*
Emerging Asia
OECD Europe+North America
Latin America
Rest of the world
World
Tightening of financial market conditions
CAUSED BY THE ACCELERATED PACE OF MONETARY POLICY NORMALIZATION IN THE MAJOR ECONOMIES TO CONTROL ELEVATED
INFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND INCREASED RISK AVERSION
Increased financial market volatility
20 days moving average
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Exchange rate volatility index - Advanced
Exchange rate volatility index - Emerging
Market volatility index (right axis)
▲ volatility in currency markets due to strong appreciation of the US$
Rising corporate bond yields*
Yield (%)
Asia, the engine of growth in 2023*. The economies of Europe and the Americas slowing down
GDP % y-o-y change
Fast transmission of ▲official
interest rates to long end of
yield curve
Rapid increase in long-term real interest rates in the US,
UK and Eurozone
10-year government bond yield (%)
The US dollar has appreciated against most advanced
economy currencies since May
% change in nominal exchange rate US$ vs. average May. 22
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Turkey
Japan
South
Africa
Korea
Rep.
Australia
UK
China
Indonesia
India
Eurozone
Canada
Brazil
Saudi
Arabia
Mexico
Russia
With the exception of some
commodity exporters, almost all
emerging market currencies have
depreciated against the US dollar
* IG = Investemnet rate (investment grade). Bond with better risk and solvency rating.
HY = high yield (speculative grade). Bond with worse credit rating
5.9
8.9
4.2
8.8
US (IG) US (HY) Eurozone (IG) Eurozone (HY)
Nov.22 Long-run average (Dec 1995 - Nov 2022) 2020 peak
% y-o-y change
2022* 2023* 2024*
GDP 4.7 1.3 1.7
Harmonized GDP 8.6 4.8 4.8
Core HCPI 4.0 4.8 3.7
59.3% of shopping basket
products
inflation > 6% in Sep.22
(13.8% in Sep. 21)
Spain