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Is cassava the answer to African
   climate change adaptation?




                    Julian Ramirez-Villegas
       Andy Jarvis, Beatriz Herrera and Carlos Navarro
Why cassava?: a main staple in Africa
• Contributed ~84 kcal/capita/day in 2007 (globally)
• In Africa, however, it was 154 kcal/capita/day (387
  wheat, 359 for maize, 205 rice)
• Africa: ~124.3 million Ton produced in 2010 (52%
  of total)




                                            FAOSTAT (2012)
Crop hardiness: reported
                                  physiological responses
                         • Adapted to warm and moist areas, but can
                           deal with dryness
Pn (umol CO2 per m2/s)




                                 El-Sharkawy (2006)
                                                       El-Sharkawy and Cock (1986)
Some limiting factors

• Pests and diseases


         Herrera et al. (2011)

• Low input farming systems, thus large yield
  gaps




      Licker et al. (2010)
Potential for climate change
        adaptation
“In 2002, cassava was considered
an ‘orphan crop’, neglected by
both investors and practitioners of
agricultural research”
               Fauquet et al. (2012)
Potential for climate change adaptation

• No systematic approach
  to quantify the potential
  of cassava
• Lobell et al. (2008) report
  increases of +1.1 %
  (average)
• Liu et al. (2008) report
  little impacts on cassava
  yield (-2 to 1 %)
Approach
• Use a simple suitability model to quantify the
  response of the crop by 2030s (SRES-A1B)
• Uncertainty in projected climate quantified
  through the use of multiple (24) GCMs
• Compare with other staples in the region
  (maize, beans, sorghum, banana, millet,
  potato)
• Benefits of further crop improvement
• Assess the impacts on pests and diseases
The EcoCrop model




…uses parameterised thresholds to determine
climatic suitability of a particular environment…

                 Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2013 Agr. For. Met. 170: 67-78
Findings
• Positive impacts or very little negative effects



                           Low
                           signal

                            Moderate to high
                            uncertainty
Cassava vs. other staples
Benefits of crop improvement
  Breeding drought /   Breeding heat / cold
     waterlogging           tolerance
In addition to large CO2
                stimulation
Rosenthal et al. (2012)
report ~100 %
increases in root yield
under elevated CO2

  Under optimal management


   Further evidence of the crop’s potential under
                  climate change
But more work is needed on pests
         and diseases




                Potentially
                less pressure
In 2012, our article empowered CIAT to play a major
role in the Global Cassava Partnership 21st Century,
now receiving funds from the Gates Foundation.
Conclusions
• Cassava consistently outperforming
  other staples in SSA under climate
  change
• Stress-tolerant cassava for managing
  risk
• And also for transformational
  adaptation (transition systems)
• Crop improvement to further increase
  biotic stress resistance
Julian R - Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation Mar 2013

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Julian R - Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation Mar 2013

  • 1. Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation? Julian Ramirez-Villegas Andy Jarvis, Beatriz Herrera and Carlos Navarro
  • 2. Why cassava?: a main staple in Africa • Contributed ~84 kcal/capita/day in 2007 (globally) • In Africa, however, it was 154 kcal/capita/day (387 wheat, 359 for maize, 205 rice) • Africa: ~124.3 million Ton produced in 2010 (52% of total) FAOSTAT (2012)
  • 3. Crop hardiness: reported physiological responses • Adapted to warm and moist areas, but can deal with dryness Pn (umol CO2 per m2/s) El-Sharkawy (2006) El-Sharkawy and Cock (1986)
  • 4. Some limiting factors • Pests and diseases Herrera et al. (2011) • Low input farming systems, thus large yield gaps Licker et al. (2010)
  • 5. Potential for climate change adaptation
  • 6. “In 2002, cassava was considered an ‘orphan crop’, neglected by both investors and practitioners of agricultural research” Fauquet et al. (2012)
  • 7. Potential for climate change adaptation • No systematic approach to quantify the potential of cassava • Lobell et al. (2008) report increases of +1.1 % (average) • Liu et al. (2008) report little impacts on cassava yield (-2 to 1 %)
  • 8. Approach • Use a simple suitability model to quantify the response of the crop by 2030s (SRES-A1B) • Uncertainty in projected climate quantified through the use of multiple (24) GCMs • Compare with other staples in the region (maize, beans, sorghum, banana, millet, potato) • Benefits of further crop improvement • Assess the impacts on pests and diseases
  • 9. The EcoCrop model …uses parameterised thresholds to determine climatic suitability of a particular environment… Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2013 Agr. For. Met. 170: 67-78
  • 10. Findings • Positive impacts or very little negative effects Low signal Moderate to high uncertainty
  • 11. Cassava vs. other staples
  • 12. Benefits of crop improvement Breeding drought / Breeding heat / cold waterlogging tolerance
  • 13. In addition to large CO2 stimulation Rosenthal et al. (2012) report ~100 % increases in root yield under elevated CO2 Under optimal management Further evidence of the crop’s potential under climate change
  • 14. But more work is needed on pests and diseases Potentially less pressure
  • 15. In 2012, our article empowered CIAT to play a major role in the Global Cassava Partnership 21st Century, now receiving funds from the Gates Foundation.
  • 16. Conclusions • Cassava consistently outperforming other staples in SSA under climate change • Stress-tolerant cassava for managing risk • And also for transformational adaptation (transition systems) • Crop improvement to further increase biotic stress resistance