1.
Rising to the challenge of establishing
a climate smart agriculture
Andy Jarvis, CCAFS

2.
The
Challenge

3.
The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability

4.
Historical impacts on food security
Observed changes in growing season
temperature for crop growing
regions,1980-2008.
% Yield impact
for wheat
Lobell et al (2011)

5.
1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?
2013

6.
Why is CSA important? – Food Security
Food security
is at risk
In order to meet
global demands,
we will need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.

7.
Why is CSA important? – Food Security
2013
Maíz
T-Max
Yield Yield
T-Max
Arroz
Climate drives
yield variation:
our systems are
sensitive to
climate, not
resilient to it

8.
Why is CSA important? - Adaptation
Global wheat
and maize
yields: response
to warming
2013

9.
Agriculture-related activities are
19-29% of global greenhouse gas
2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
emissions (2010)
Land-use change and
forestry including
drained peatlands
13
Agriculture
production (e.g.,
fertilizers, rice,
livestock, energy)
Industrial
processes
Waste
Percent, 100% = 50
gigatonnes CO2e per year
Non-Ag
Energy
70
11
4 2

10.
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
“Business as usual” (BAU)
agriculture emissions
would comprise >70% of
allowable emissions to
achieve a 2°C world
2013
Gt CO2e per year
36
70
12 15
2010 2050
(Business as usual)
2050
(2°C target)
Non-agricultural
emissions
Agricultural and land-use
change
emissions
>70%
48
85
21

11.
Message 1:
In the coming decades, climate change
and other global trends will endanger
agriculture, food security, and rural
livelihoods.

12.
Can we breed our way out of the
problem?

13.
Why do we need breeding?
• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the
world will experience novel combinations of climate

14.
And also non-linear responses of crops
to climates
•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed
to temperatures >30˚C
•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

15.
Can we breed our way out of the
problem?
Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428

16.
Message 3:
Different breeding challenges for different
crops, in different countries – no silver
bullet!

17.
2. There are significant successes in CSA
2013

18.
CSA options involve farms, landscapes,
food systems and services
landscape
crops
livestock
fish
food system
services
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT

19.
CSA options for landscapes
landscape
Manage livestock
& wildlife over
wide areas
Ensure close links
between practice
and policy (e.g.
land use zoning)
Restore degraded
wetlands, peatlands,
grasslands and watersheds
Create
diversity of
land uses
Increase cover of
trees and perennials
Harvest floods
& manage
groundwater
Address
coastal
salinity &
sea surges
Protect against large-scale
erosion

20.
Example: Sustainable land management in
Ethiopia
 190,000 ha rehabilitated
 98,000 households benefit
 Cut-and-carry feed for
livestock
 380,000 m3 waterways
 900,000 m3 compost
Photos: W. Bewket, AAU

21.
CSA options for crops & fields
crops
Crop diversification and
“climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering cropping
patterns & planting
dates
Better soil and nutrient
management e.g. erosion
control and micro-dosing
Improved water use
efficiency (irrigation
systems, water micro-harvesting)
Monitoring &
managing new trends
in pests and diseases
Agroforestry,
intercropping &
on-farm
biodiversity

22.
NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’
 5 million ha of land restored, over
200 million trees re-established
 Sequestratio
n of carbon
in soil and
trees
 Reduces
drought
impacts
 Additional half a
million tonnes of
grain per year

23.
CSA options for livestock
livestock
High-quality diets that
increase conversion
efficiency and reduce
emissions
Herd management e.g.
sale or slaughter at
different ages
Livestock diversification
and “climate-ready”
species and breeds
Changing patterns of
pastoralism and use of
water points
Improved
pasture
management
Use of human
food waste for
pigs & chickens

24.
Example: Forest land use and cattle
management in Brazil
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
 45% higher stocking density
 no increase in pasture area
 better pasture quality
 40% reduction in emissions
 agriculture decoupled from
deforestation

25.
CSA options for fisheries
& aquaculture
fish
Greater energy
efficiency in
harvesting
Better physical
defences against
sea surges
Quota schemes
matched to
monitoring of
fish stocks
Reducing losses
and wastage
Less dependence of
aquaculture on
marine fish feed
Rehabilitation of
mangroves &
breeding grounds

26.
CSA options for food systems
Changing
diets
food system
More creative
and efficient use
of by-products
Less energy-intensity
in
fertilizer
production
Improving resilience
of infrastructure for
storage & transport
(e.g. roads, ports)
Greater
attention to
food safety
Reducing post-harvest
losses &
consumer wastage

27.
Example: “Love Food Hate Waste”
in United Kingdom
 13 % less household food waste
 consumers saving $4 billion
 national water footprint down 4%
 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year

28.
CSA options for services
services
Monitoring &
data for food
security, climate &
ecosystems
Early warning
systems &
weather
forecasts
Mobile phone, radio
& other extension or
information for
farmers
Research that
links farmers &
science
Weather
insurance &
micro-finance
Financial transfers &
other “safety nets” for
climate shocks

29.
INDIA Weather-based insurance
 12 million
farmers & 40
different crops
insured
 Allows farmers to
access fertilizer
and better seed
 Reduces pressure
to bring more land
under cultivation
Reduces
risks

30.
Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in
Senegal
 3 million farmers get forecasts
 70 community radio stations
 better food security outcomes

31.
2. But major
scaling up
is needed

32.
1.4 billion living in
Poverty
1 billion more
People by 2030
1.5
billion
people
depend on
Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to
extreme Weather (2010)
Nearly 1 billion
going Hungry
14% more
Food needed per
decade

33.
So what are the targets?
Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA
Mitigation targets?
Target: Half a billion with
enhanced adaptive capacity
DC Targets (2035)
• 22% reduction in agricultural
Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate
Change Mitigation in the Developing World
emissions relative to the ‘business
as usual’ baseline
• 46% reduction in forestry and land
use change, relative to a projection
of current trends

34.
Are these targets insurmountable?
“63 million customers per day,
so 500 million smallholders in
the next decade is easy!”
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Relative 2012 = 100%
Food
demand
Grain yield
per ha
GDP
Cell phone
penetration
Global Harvest Initiative 2013
FAOSTAT
World Bank/Standard Chartered
GSMA/Deloitte
Sub-Saharan Africa

35.
35
Requires a comprehensive approach
• Partnerships: research and development, science
and policy, public and private
• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,
programmatic elements (insurance, climate
information services)
• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies,
UNFCCC global process, donor agendas
• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private
sector

36.
Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying
(AWD)
• Keep flooded for
1st 15 days and at
flowering
• Irrigate when
water drops to 15
cm below the
surface
30% water
20-50% GHG
Without compromising
yield
Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying
16 15.0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-42%
8.7
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
t CO2-eq/ ha*season
4.9
-20%
3.9
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-28% -22%
6.0
4.7
6.4
4.6
Summer-
Autumn
Winter-
Spring
Sander et al. in press IRRI
Conventional AWD

37.
Addressing constraints
From national level…
to implementation at provincial level….
Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI

38.
Coffee-banana intercropping
3
2
1
0
2268 $ ha yr 4307 1286 $ ha yr 1770
Monocrops Intercrops
Arabica
(t/ha)
Banana
(tenth
t/ha)
Arabica systems
Arabica Banana
1.5
1
0.5
0
Monocrops Intercrops
Robusta
(t/ha)
Banana
(tenth
t/ha)
Robusta systems
Robusta Banana
More carbon in the
system
Diversification
Decreases drought impacts
Increased income
Enhanced food security

39.
Leb by
Climate smart villages:
Key agricultural activities for managing risks

40.
Strong national engagement

41.
www.aclimatecolombia.org

42.
Maximizing productivity in agricultural systems. Identifying the combination of
factors that lead to high and low productivities (empirical approaches)

43.
What defines yield?
51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice

44.
PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST
33
33
33
Above
Normal
Below
38
31
31
22
27
51
37
33
31
39
33
28
Agroclimatic
Seasonal
forecasting

45.
First, understand the relationships
+ + =
Climate Soil Crop management productivity/ha
(including varieties)
Relationships
=
+
Forecasts
+ Empirical models
+
Mechanistic models
Advisory Systems
Robust decision making for
Climate Smart Agriculture

46.
Pulling the pieces together
Climate resilience
Baseline
Adapted
technologies
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-specific
management
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use
+
Enabling
environment
NAPs and
NAMAs
Climate smartness
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use

47.
Global learning

48.
In summary….
• Challenge immense, but not
insurmountable
• CSA requires a comprehensive approach.
Line up:
– Technical
– Financial
– Policy
• Two key factors for success:
– Successfully building a business case for
CSA
– Addressing the constraints head on
• Agricultural scientists need to support
the drive towards CSA
– Mainstreaming productivity, adaptation and
mitigation into next generation of ag
technologies

49.
50
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