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State of CSA Research and Development
2013
1. What is Climate Smart
Agriculture?
In order to meet global
demands, we will need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.
Food security
is at risk
Why is CSA important? – Food
Security
Why is CSA important? – Adaptation
Climate drives ~32-39% yield variation: our systems are
sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
Ray et al. 2015
2013
Why is CSA important? - Adaptation
Global wheat
and maize
yields:
response to
warming
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities are
19-29% of global greenhouse gas
emissions (2010)
Agriculture
production (e.g.,
fertilizers, rice,
livestock, energy)
Land-use change
and forestry including
drained peatlands
Industrial
processes
Waste
Percent, 100% = 50
gigatonnes CO2e per
Non-Ag
Energy
70
11
4 2
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
“Business as usual”
(BAU) agriculture
emissions would
comprise >70% of
allowable emissions to
achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
12 15
36
70
2010 2050
(Business as usual)
2050
(2°C target)
Non-agricultural
emissions
Agricultural and land-
use change
emissions
>70%
48
85
21
Message 1:
Agriculture and climate not in tune: CSA
a means of achieving improving this
relationship
CSA Science: How much do we actually
know?
Compendium of CSA practices
65 practices/22 indicators
Key word search
Abstract/title review
Full text review
Data extraction
144,567
papers
16,254
papers
6,100
papers
~120,000 data points
Photo:
K. Tully
Synergies and tradeoffs between
food security and adaptation with CSA
Mean effect from random sample
of 130 studies (55 comparisons)
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
Productivity
Adaptation
6% 16%
46% 32%
SynergiesTradeoffs
Tradeoffs
Studies with indicators for at least one
component of CSA
Random sample of 815 studies
Studies with indicators for all three
components of CSA
Random sample of 815 studies
Need a new paradigm for research
Engagement
Capacitydevelopment
CSA
Investment
Portfolios
Targeting & Prioritizing
Practices, Programs and Policies
Trade-offs & Value for Money
Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness
Stocktaking
for CSA
Action
Situation Analysis
Risks and Enabling Conditions
Programing
Guidelines & Implementation
Taking CSA
to Scale
Knowledge into Action
Evidence Based Results Framework
Learning
from
Experience
Monitoring and Evaluation
Across Scales and Systems
CSA-Plan
• Indicators & targets to achieve
• Agricultural snapshot
• Future climate impacts
• Ongoing & promising CSA
practices
• Institutions & policy entry
points
• Finance mechanism
Climate Smart Profiles
Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness
Stocktaking
for CSA
Action
Situation Analysis
Risks and Enabling Conditions
Upcoming for Nepal during next 6 months
CSA
Investment
Portfolios
Targeting & Prioritizing
Practices, Programs and Policies
Trade-offs & Value for Money
Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness
Stocktaking
for CSA
Action
Situation Analysis
Risks and Enabling Conditions
CSA-Plan
Prioritization in action
Guatemala Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food
• ‘dry corridor’ - due to a severe drought in 2014
• Objectives
• Assess and validate the previously incentivized practices
from food for work program
• Prioritize practices for promotion by government extension.
Colombia Local organization: Foundation Rio Las Piedras
• Objectives:
• Evaluate ongoing CSA practices
• Improve existing practices
• Create programs to scale up high outcome practices
Mali National Science Policy Dialogue Platform
• Three zones prioritized – cc impact, production systems
• Objectives:
• Create technical info for farmers
• Cross-ministerial CSA programs to incentivize adoption
& investment
No blanket recommendations
Not
CSA
CSA
Many practices/programs/policies
can be CSA somewhere
But none are likely CSA everywhere
Rosenstock et al. unpublished
Context
CSA
Investment
Portfolios
Targeting & Prioritizing
Practices, Programs and Policies
Trade-offs & Value for Money
Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness
Stocktaking
for CSA
Action
Situation Analysis
Risks and Enabling Conditions
Programming Design
Guidelines & Implementation
Taking CSA
to Scale
Knowledge into Action
CSA-Plan
Pulling the pieces together:
Supporting Colombia’s national
climate smart agenda
Climateresilience
Baseline
Adapted
technologie
s
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use
+
Enabling
environment
NAPs and
NAMAs
Climate smartness
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use
Requires a comprehensive approach
• Partnerships: research and development, science and
policy, public and private
• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,
programmatic elements (insurance, climate information
services)
• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC
global process, donor agendas
• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
Looking forward: Building
evidence, systematic learning
and scaling of CSA
https://csa.guide/
www.ccafs.cgiar.org
sign up for science, policy and news e-
bulletins Twitter: @cgiarclimate

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Climate Smart Agriculture: State of research and development

  • 1. State of CSA Research and Development
  • 2. 2013 1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?
  • 3. In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050. Food security is at risk Why is CSA important? – Food Security
  • 4. Why is CSA important? – Adaptation Climate drives ~32-39% yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it Ray et al. 2015
  • 5. 2013 Why is CSA important? - Adaptation Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming
  • 6. Why is CSA important? - Mitigation 13 Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010) Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy) Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands Industrial processes Waste Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per Non-Ag Energy 70 11 4 2
  • 7. Why is CSA important? - Mitigation “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world Gt CO2e per year 12 15 36 70 2010 2050 (Business as usual) 2050 (2°C target) Non-agricultural emissions Agricultural and land- use change emissions >70% 48 85 21
  • 8. Message 1: Agriculture and climate not in tune: CSA a means of achieving improving this relationship
  • 9. CSA Science: How much do we actually know?
  • 10. Compendium of CSA practices 65 practices/22 indicators Key word search Abstract/title review Full text review Data extraction 144,567 papers 16,254 papers 6,100 papers ~120,000 data points Photo: K. Tully
  • 11. Synergies and tradeoffs between food security and adaptation with CSA Mean effect from random sample of 130 studies (55 comparisons) -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 Productivity Adaptation 6% 16% 46% 32% SynergiesTradeoffs Tradeoffs
  • 12. Studies with indicators for at least one component of CSA Random sample of 815 studies
  • 13. Studies with indicators for all three components of CSA Random sample of 815 studies Need a new paradigm for research
  • 14. Engagement Capacitydevelopment CSA Investment Portfolios Targeting & Prioritizing Practices, Programs and Policies Trade-offs & Value for Money Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness Stocktaking for CSA Action Situation Analysis Risks and Enabling Conditions Programing Guidelines & Implementation Taking CSA to Scale Knowledge into Action Evidence Based Results Framework Learning from Experience Monitoring and Evaluation Across Scales and Systems CSA-Plan
  • 15. • Indicators & targets to achieve • Agricultural snapshot • Future climate impacts • Ongoing & promising CSA practices • Institutions & policy entry points • Finance mechanism Climate Smart Profiles Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness Stocktaking for CSA Action Situation Analysis Risks and Enabling Conditions
  • 16. Upcoming for Nepal during next 6 months
  • 17. CSA Investment Portfolios Targeting & Prioritizing Practices, Programs and Policies Trade-offs & Value for Money Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness Stocktaking for CSA Action Situation Analysis Risks and Enabling Conditions CSA-Plan
  • 18. Prioritization in action Guatemala Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food • ‘dry corridor’ - due to a severe drought in 2014 • Objectives • Assess and validate the previously incentivized practices from food for work program • Prioritize practices for promotion by government extension. Colombia Local organization: Foundation Rio Las Piedras • Objectives: • Evaluate ongoing CSA practices • Improve existing practices • Create programs to scale up high outcome practices Mali National Science Policy Dialogue Platform • Three zones prioritized – cc impact, production systems • Objectives: • Create technical info for farmers • Cross-ministerial CSA programs to incentivize adoption & investment
  • 19. No blanket recommendations Not CSA CSA Many practices/programs/policies can be CSA somewhere But none are likely CSA everywhere Rosenstock et al. unpublished Context
  • 20. CSA Investment Portfolios Targeting & Prioritizing Practices, Programs and Policies Trade-offs & Value for Money Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness Stocktaking for CSA Action Situation Analysis Risks and Enabling Conditions Programming Design Guidelines & Implementation Taking CSA to Scale Knowledge into Action CSA-Plan
  • 21. Pulling the pieces together: Supporting Colombia’s national climate smart agenda Climateresilience Baseline Adapted technologie s Adapted technologies + Climate- specific management Adapted technologies + Climate- specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts Adapted technologies + Climate- specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts + Efficient resource use + Enabling environment NAPs and NAMAs Climate smartness Adapted technologies + Climate- specific management + Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts + Efficient resource use
  • 22.
  • 23. Requires a comprehensive approach • Partnerships: research and development, science and policy, public and private • Knowledge generation: practices/technologies, programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services) • Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas • Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector Looking forward: Building evidence, systematic learning and scaling of CSA
  • 25. www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e- bulletins Twitter: @cgiarclimate

Editor's Notes

  1. Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  2. Todd Over the past year, ICRAF and CCAFS have tried to organize the available information on CSA by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. We looked at approximately 65 field level practices and 15 indicators of performance. A practice here is from the farmers perspective (something he or she would implement on their farm). What that means is we are looking at 65 practices at the level of ‘leguminous intercropped agroforestry’ not aggregate practices like agroforestry itself. as leguminous intercropped will have a much different impact than border planting with timber species. 1. We searched Web of Science with general and discpline oriented keywords and returned 144,000 possible papers. 2. Abstracts and titles were then reviewed against inclusion criteria that included things such as taking place in a developing country, a baseline/control and improved practice and then we had 16,254 candidate papers. Papers were screened by person with at least an MS in a relevant field and some were in the middle of PHD 3. We then reviewed the full text of these papers to be sure they met the criteria and we believe there will be about 6100 papers (there are about 3000 papers left to screen that we are having trouble getting access to). We have extracted data from 1,200 of these papers so far and QA/QC only 150 of those. Extrapolations based on our current rate of data inclusion, we expect the final database to be approximately 120,000 disappoints.
  3. TODD But we can also look at trade-offs and synergies. What we see when we look at adaptation and food security indicators (again effect sizes are agreggegated across indicators) is that >60% show tradeoffs (blue boxes) ~30% show synergies 6% show negative effects
  4. NOTE: All data displayed is based on subsamples of the data that have been QA/QC. This is because of some complexities and errors found in the 1200 papers where data extraction had been completed and issues translating the extracted data into a database. This is a map of 815 of the studies that have at least 1 indicator of 1 pillar. There is pretty good geographic spread; though there are some gaps (some of which may be due to us only looking at English language studies). However, you do notice some spatial clustering. This is important because it suggest we may not have information that is representative across the range of environments or the entire scaling domain we hope to reach.
  5. When you look for studies that have research on indicators in all three pillars, there are almost none (<1%) of the cleaned database at this time. This suggests science around CSA will require a new paradigm of research. It is important to note that this is a fraction of the entire dataset. However, the dataset these maps were made from are a random sample of studies and thus we believe are somewhat indiciative of the final results.
  6. BRUCE
  7. CAITLIN - Targets = number of farmers, impact aiming to achieve
  8. CAITLIN Targeting a practice to a specific place, what to do where
  9. CAITLIN
  10. TODD
  11. BRUCE