Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) is important for food security, adaptation, and mitigation of climate change. CSA aims to achieve food security under changing climate conditions through practices that sustainably increase productivity, resilience (adaptation), and reduce greenhouse gases (mitigation). While research has identified over 120,000 data points on CSA practices, studies analyzing all three components of CSA are still limited. Developing comprehensive CSA plans requires assessing vulnerability and risks, prioritizing appropriate practices and programs, and establishing enabling policies and investment to take CSA to scale.
3. In order to meet global
demands, we will need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.
Food security
is at risk
Why is CSA important? – Food
Security
4. Why is CSA important? – Adaptation
Climate drives ~32-39% yield variation: our systems are
sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
Ray et al. 2015
5. 2013
Why is CSA important? - Adaptation
Global wheat
and maize
yields:
response to
warming
6. Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities are
19-29% of global greenhouse gas
emissions (2010)
Agriculture
production (e.g.,
fertilizers, rice,
livestock, energy)
Land-use change
and forestry including
drained peatlands
Industrial
processes
Waste
Percent, 100% = 50
gigatonnes CO2e per
Non-Ag
Energy
70
11
4 2
7. Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
“Business as usual”
(BAU) agriculture
emissions would
comprise >70% of
allowable emissions to
achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
12 15
36
70
2010 2050
(Business as usual)
2050
(2°C target)
Non-agricultural
emissions
Agricultural and land-
use change
emissions
>70%
48
85
21
10. Compendium of CSA practices
65 practices/22 indicators
Key word search
Abstract/title review
Full text review
Data extraction
144,567
papers
16,254
papers
6,100
papers
~120,000 data points
Photo:
K. Tully
11. Synergies and tradeoffs between
food security and adaptation with CSA
Mean effect from random sample
of 130 studies (55 comparisons)
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
Productivity
Adaptation
6% 16%
46% 32%
SynergiesTradeoffs
Tradeoffs
13. Studies with indicators for all three
components of CSA
Random sample of 815 studies
Need a new paradigm for research
14. Engagement
Capacitydevelopment
CSA
Investment
Portfolios
Targeting & Prioritizing
Practices, Programs and Policies
Trade-offs & Value for Money
Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness
Stocktaking
for CSA
Action
Situation Analysis
Risks and Enabling Conditions
Programing
Guidelines & Implementation
Taking CSA
to Scale
Knowledge into Action
Evidence Based Results Framework
Learning
from
Experience
Monitoring and Evaluation
Across Scales and Systems
CSA-Plan
18. Prioritization in action
Guatemala Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food
• ‘dry corridor’ - due to a severe drought in 2014
• Objectives
• Assess and validate the previously incentivized practices
from food for work program
• Prioritize practices for promotion by government extension.
Colombia Local organization: Foundation Rio Las Piedras
• Objectives:
• Evaluate ongoing CSA practices
• Improve existing practices
• Create programs to scale up high outcome practices
Mali National Science Policy Dialogue Platform
• Three zones prioritized – cc impact, production systems
• Objectives:
• Create technical info for farmers
• Cross-ministerial CSA programs to incentivize adoption
& investment
20. CSA
Investment
Portfolios
Targeting & Prioritizing
Practices, Programs and Policies
Trade-offs & Value for Money
Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness
Stocktaking
for CSA
Action
Situation Analysis
Risks and Enabling Conditions
Programming Design
Guidelines & Implementation
Taking CSA
to Scale
Knowledge into Action
CSA-Plan
21. Pulling the pieces together:
Supporting Colombia’s national
climate smart agenda
Climateresilience
Baseline
Adapted
technologie
s
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use
+
Enabling
environment
NAPs and
NAMAs
Climate smartness
Adapted
technologies
+
Climate-
specific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use
22.
23. Requires a comprehensive approach
• Partnerships: research and development, science and
policy, public and private
• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,
programmatic elements (insurance, climate information
services)
• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC
global process, donor agendas
• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
Looking forward: Building
evidence, systematic learning
and scaling of CSA
Why focus on Food security
And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets
60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
Todd
Over the past year, ICRAF and CCAFS have tried to organize the available information on CSA by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis.
We looked at approximately 65 field level practices and 15 indicators of performance. A practice here is from the farmers perspective (something he or she would implement on their farm). What that means is we are looking at 65 practices at the level of ‘leguminous intercropped agroforestry’ not aggregate practices like agroforestry itself. as leguminous intercropped will have a much different impact than border planting with timber species.
1. We searched Web of Science with general and discpline oriented keywords and returned 144,000 possible papers.
2. Abstracts and titles were then reviewed against inclusion criteria that included things such as taking place in a developing country, a baseline/control and improved practice and then we had 16,254 candidate papers. Papers were screened by person with at least an MS in a relevant field and some were in the middle of PHD
3. We then reviewed the full text of these papers to be sure they met the criteria and we believe there will be about 6100 papers (there are about 3000 papers left to screen that we are having trouble getting access to). We have extracted data from 1,200 of these papers so far and QA/QC only 150 of those. Extrapolations based on our current rate of data inclusion, we expect the final database to be approximately 120,000 disappoints.
TODD
But we can also look at trade-offs and synergies. What we see when we look at adaptation and food security indicators (again effect sizes are agreggegated across indicators) is that
>60% show tradeoffs (blue boxes)
~30% show synergies
6% show negative effects
NOTE: All data displayed is based on subsamples of the data that have been QA/QC. This is because of some complexities and errors found in the 1200 papers where data extraction had been completed and issues translating the extracted data into a database.
This is a map of 815 of the studies that have at least 1 indicator of 1 pillar.
There is pretty good geographic spread; though there are some gaps (some of which may be due to us only looking at English language studies). However, you do notice some spatial clustering.
This is important because it suggest we may not have information that is representative across the range of environments or the entire scaling domain we hope to reach.
When you look for studies that have research on indicators in all three pillars, there are almost none (<1%) of the cleaned database at this time.
This suggests science around CSA will require a new paradigm of research.
It is important to note that this is a fraction of the entire dataset. However, the dataset these maps were made from are a random sample of studies and thus we believe are somewhat indiciative of the final results.
BRUCE
CAITLIN
- Targets = number of farmers, impact aiming to achieve
CAITLIN
Targeting a practice to a specific place, what to do where