Presentation made at the contact points meeting in Copenhagen April 2012.

1. Contact Point meeting Copenhagen April 2012
CCAFS: Theme 1 Adapting to
Progressive Climate Change
Andy Jarvis
Theme 1 Leader

2. 2 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to Progressive
Climate Change
Objective One:
Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies,
practices, and policies
Objective Two:
Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic
stresses induced by future climates
Objective Three:
Integrated adaptation strategies for agricultural and food
systems inserted into policy and institutional frameworks

3. 3 • 3/21/11
Theme 1 Strategy
Problem definition:
DIAGNOSTIC
BIO/ENV (2012)
DATA
SOCIO/E EVALUATION OF
CO DATA ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND OBJECTIVES
TECHNOLOGIES
(2012- 2014) 1.1 COMMUNITY /
FARMING SYSTEM +
MODELS
LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM
STRATEGIES
adaptation strategies
System level
CAP. 1.2 RESEARCH Strategies
BUILDING SCIENCE BASED (breeding) -> CRPs
/GENDER ADAPTATION
STRATEGIES 1.3 POLICY +
INSTITUTIONAL
(2012- 2015) STRATEGIES
* Food system
* Nat -> sub-national

4. 4 • 3/21/11
Climate Analogues: Finding future
climates for actual adaptation
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/
The 2030 climate of a
maize-growing area near
Durban will correspond to
the current climate of a
major maize-growing area in
Argentina. Growers in
Durban can learn from
these analogous climates
how to adapt as their
climate shifts.
•70% of expected future climates already exist somewhere else
•Facilitates exchange of knowledge, technology, and practices between
analogue sites
•Validates computational models and develops novel research

5. 5 • 3/21/11
Major 2011 Outputs
>>A 4 year road map for Objective 1.2
Long term agreement set up with CIRAD, and in conjunction with GRISP and RTB +
others on a road map for developing climate-smart breeding strategies
Initial results
•Initial breeding strategies
published for four crops in crop
adaptation book (involving 3
CGIAR centres):
•Bananas
•Beans
•Cassava
•Potato
•Breeding fora held in Ethiopia,
December 2011 involving 5
centers

6. 6 • 3/21/11
Agtrials: Assembling public data in a
common portal
20 crops
2483 trials
http://www.agtrials
.org:8080/
•Calibrates and validates crop models
•Indicates adaptation options: Genetic improvement, on-farm management, etc.
•Improves access technology transfer options
•Builds “adaptation packages”

7. 7 • 3/21/11
Participatory SROI: Costing climate
change adaptation at the community level
•Current top-down models
underestimate the cost of
adaptation
•Comprises two
complementary phases
with distinct outputs
•Matches CC interventions
with local resources and
priorities
Three pilots in Kenya and Senegal identified challenges (attaining
seeds and training for agroforestry) and perceived benefits (source
of wood, fodder for animals, monetary returns) of adaptation
strategies involving interplanting tree species within croplands.

8. 8 • 3/21/11
2011 Center Reports: some
highlights
•IWMI: Vulnerability in Nile and Volta basins and preliminary analysis of
water storage and water allocation policies for adaptation.
•IWMI: Policy support in Sri Lanka in design of NAPA
•ICARDA: Central Asia household modelling and evaluation of policy
responses
•CIAT: Adaptation framework for adaptation of food supply chains,
including gender component, and applied in 3 countries
•Bioversity: matching seeds for needs in multiple countries
•Bioversity: Global genetic resource policy for enabling germplasm
access and benefit sharing in a changing climate
•Worldfish: Adaptation planning in Vietnam aquaculture

9. 9 • 3/21/11
Centers working on similar
things without knowing it!
•Multi-center technology testing (IRRI, CIAT, ICARDA): salt and heat
tolerant rice in the Mekong, water-logging tolerant forage varieties in
Latin America, and heat tolerant livestock in the Middle East
•Multi center pest and disease risk assessment (CIMMYT, CIAT and
ICARDA) for cassava, maize, wheat and barley
•Multi center crop breeding priority analysis (CIAT, IRRI, Bioversity,
CIP)

10. 10 • 3/21/11
Key challenges for 2012
• Getting beyond diagnosis, and identifying more solutions
•Contributing TOGETHER to identify solutions.
•Priorities: millions of adaptation options, but are we focusing on the
most appropriate? Right now it is a mixed bag, and fairly random
• Major knowledge gaps: pest and disease impacts and changes
needed in pest management, breeding for resistance etc.
• Areas to focus efforts and build up in the portfolio:
• System thinking (food system, farming system, socio-economic
contexts)
•Policy engagement for adaptation plans and strategies,
including economics: NAPAs, NAPs
•Holistic testing of adaptation options: comparative,
complementary