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A growing literature has affirmed with great confidence the feasibility of high penetration levels of wind and solar energy in electric generation under existing technology. This optimism is based in part on the belief that improved forecasting has effectively “solved” the challenge of intermittency. For example, the UK’s Royal Academy of Engineering has recently noted that wind energy’s capacity weighted forecast error of about five percent is evidence that the wind energy forecasts in Great Britain are highly accurate. This paper assesses this claim using data from Great Britain, 50Hertz in Germany, Amprion in Germany, the California ISO, the Bonneville Power Administration, the Midcontinent ISO, France, Western Demark, Eastern Denmark, and Belgium. The analysis proceeds by comparing the forecast accuracy of load, wind, and solar energy with the accuracy of the corresponding persistence forecasts for load, wind, and solar energy. The analysis indicates that while the load forecasts are generally more accurate than a persistence load forecast, the wind and solar energy forecasts are generally less accurate than the corresponding persistence forecasts for wind and solar energy. Specifically, with a persistence forecast as reference, the mean-square-error-skill-score (MSESS) of the load forecasts are generally positive while the MSESS of the wind or solar energy forecast are generally negative. Evidence is also presented that the forecast errors have a systematic component. Modelling of this systematic component can yield short-run solar and wind energy forecasts that are significantly more accurate. This does not resolve the challenge of intermittency but may mitigate matters.

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