2. Learning Outcomes
Illustrate cost estimation of an IT project.
3.1 Explain the importance of estimating the cost of an IT
project.
3.2 Discuss different tools and techniques used for cost
estimation and problems that can arise with improper
estimation.
3.3 Discuss Earned Value Management and use it as a tool to
estimate cost.
6. Cost
You get what you pay for!
IT projects have a poor track record
for meeting budget goals
Where does Budget overrun come from?
– Based on unclear project requirements
– PM’s do not have good financial estimate skills
7. Project Cost
Cost is a resource sacrificed to achieve a
specific objective
Costs are usually measured in monetary
units like dollars
Project cost management includes the
processes required to ensure that the
project is completed within an approved
budget
8. Project Cost Management Processes
Estimating costs: developing an
approximation or estimate of the
costs of the resources needed to
complete a project
Determining the budget: allocating
the overall cost estimate to individual
work items to establish a baseline for
measuring performance
Controlling costs: controlling
changes to the project budget
10. Basic Principles of Cost
Management
Profits are revenues minus
expenditures
Profit margin is the ratio of revenues
to profits
Life cycle costing considers the total
cost of ownership, or development plus
support costs, for a project
Cash flow analysis determines the
estimated annual costs and benefits for
a project and the resulting annual cash
flow
12. Basic Principles of Cost Management
Tangible costs or benefits are those costs or
benefits that an organization can easily measure in
dollars
Intangible costs or benefits are costs or benefits
that are difficult to measure in monetary terms
Direct costs are costs that can be directly related to
producing the products and services of the project
Indirect costs are costs that are not directly related
to the products or services of the project, but are
indirectly related to performing the project
Sunk cost is money that has been spent in the past;
when deciding what projects to invest in or continue,
you should not include sunk costs
13. Basic Principles of Cost Management
Learning curve theory states that when many items
are produced repetitively, the unit cost of those items
decreases in a regular pattern as more units are
produced
Reserves are dollars included in a cost estimate to
mitigate cost risk by allowing for future situations that
are difficult to predict
– Contingency reserves allow for future situations that
may be partially planned for (sometimes called known
unknowns) and are included in the project cost
baseline
– Management reserves allow for future situations that
are unpredictable (sometimes called unknown
unknowns)
14. Resource Planning
Determine what physical resources
(people, equipment, materials) and how
much of them (units)
This can help you estimate costs
15. Quick Note
Using MS Project you can define all project resources
MS PROJECT 2007
16. 1. Estimating Cost
Cost estimating is the process of calculating the costs
of the identified resources needed to complete the
project work
The person doing the estimating must consider the
possible fluctuations, conditions, and other causes of
variances that could affect the total cost of the
estimate
Project teams normally prepare cost estimates at
various stages of a project, and these estimates
should be fine-tuned as time progresses
It is also important to provide supporting details for
the estimates, including ground rules and
assumptions
17. Cost Management Plan
A cost management plan is a
document that describes how the
organization will manage cost
variances on the project
A large percentage of total project
costs are often labor costs, so
project managers must develop and
track estimates for labor
19. Cost Estimating Techniques
Analogous estimates, also called top-down estimates
– use the actual cost of a previous, similar project as the basis for
estimating the cost of the current project
– This technique requires a good deal of expert judgment and is
generally less costly than others are, but it can also be less
accurate
Example:
– An IT project to develop a certain application required
500 development hours. The total cost was $50,000
– A similar IT project is expected to be completed in 300
hours. What would be the cost?
20. Cost Estimating Techniques
Bottom-up estimates
– involve estimating individual activities and
summing them to get a project total
– This approach can increase the accuracy of
the cost estimate, but it can also be time
intensive and, therefore, expensive to develop
21. Cost Estimating Techniques
Parametric modeling
– uses project characteristics (parameters) in a
mathematical model to estimate project costs
– For example, in software development, the
software code could be estimated by $50 per
line depending on the type of software
– In other words, price per unit
It is good practice to use more than
one technique for creating a cost
estimate
22. Problems with IT Cost Estimates
Estimates are done too quickly
Lack of estimating experience
Human beings are biased toward
underestimation
Management desires accuracy
23. 2. Determining the Budget
Cost Budgeting is the process of assigning cost to
individual work item, based on the project’s WBS
The difference between cost estimates and cost
budgeting is that cost estimates show costs by
category, whereas a cost budget shows costs
across time
Inputs to project cost budgeting are the cost
estimates, the WBS and the project schedule
24. Quick Note
COST BUDGETING AND COST ESTIMATES MAY GO
HAND-IN-HAND, BUT ESTIMATING SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BEFORE A BUDGET IS ASSIGNED
25. Cost Baseline
Cost Baseline is time-phased budget
that the PM uses to measure and
monitor the cost performance
A project’s cost baseline shows what is
expected to be spent on the project
The purpose of a cost baseline is to
measure performance, and a baseline
will predict the expenses over the life of
the project
27. 3. Controlling the Cost
Includes monitoring cost
performance, ensuring that
appropriate changes are
included in a revised cost
baseline and Informing
project stakeholders of
authorized changes to the
project that will affect costs
Cost control is concerned
with understanding why the
cost variances, both good
and bad, have occurred
28. Cost Control Tools
Tools include:
– Performance Management Reports
– Earned Value Management (EVM)
EVM
– Earned Value Management (EVM) is the
process of measuring performance of
project work against a plan to identify
variances
29. EVM
EVM is a project performance measurement
technique that integrates scope, time, and
cost data
Given a baseline (original plan plus
approved changes), you can determine how
well the project is meeting its goals
You must enter actual information
periodically to use EVM
More and more organizations around the
world are using EVM to help control project
costs
30. EVM Values
Planned Value (PV)
– The work scheduled and the authorized budget to
accomplish that work
– Also known as Budget Cost of Work Schedule (BCWS)
Earned Value (EV)
– The physical work completed to date and the authorized
budget for that work
– Also known as Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
(BCWP)
Actual Cost (AC)
– The actual amount of monies the project has required to
date
– Also known as Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP)
31. Rate of Performance (RP)
Rate of performance (RP) is the
ratio of actual work completed to the
percentage of work planned to have
been completed at any given time
during the life of the project or
activity
32. Quick Example
A PROJECT HAS A BUDGET OF
$100,000 AND 12 MONTHS TO
COMPLETE
33. EVM Example: PV
What's the PV in month 6?
– 6 months means 50% (6/12)
PV = 50% X $100,000 = $50,000
BAC = $100,000
Month = 6 (50%)
50% of the project
What’s the PV here?
PV = $50,000
34. EVM Example: EV
If to date we finished 25% of the
work, what’s the EV?
EV = 25% X $100,000 = $25,000
BAC = $100,000
Month = 6
(50%)
What’s the EV here?
EV = $25,000
25%
completed
to date
35. EVM Example: AC
But what if we actually spent so far
$35,000?
AC = $35,000
BAC = $100,000
Month = 6
(50%)
We actually spent $35,000
Even though the EV is $25,000
25%
completed
to date
36. Quick Question
Do you see a problem because AC > EV?
What does that tell you?
COST VARIANCE = EV – AC = -$10,000
37. CPI
Cost Performance Index
– A value that demonstrates how the
project costs are performing
– CPI is a value that reveals how much
money the project is losing (or making)
CPI = EV / AC
38. CPI Example
BAC =$100,000
We completed 30%
EV = 30% x 100,000 = $30,000
Actual Costs were
AC = $32,000
CPI = EV/AC
CPI= 30,000/32,000 = 0.94
If CPI = 0.94
– This means that for every $1we spent, we’ve
done only $0.94 worth of work (6 cents are
wasted)
39. Quick Note
CPI SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO 1
IF CPI < 1 POOR PERFORMANCE
IF CPI > 1 NOT NECESSARILY GOOD PERFORMANCE
(MAYBE OUR ESTIMATES WERE INFLATED)
40. EAC
Estimate At Completion
– An estimate of what the total cost of the
project will be
– Before the project begins, the project
manager completes an estimate for the
project deliverables based on the WBS
– Different ways to calculate
EAC= BAC / CPI
42. EVM Example
Given
data
CV = EV – AC = 5000 -15000 = -10000
SV = EV – PV = 5000 – 10000 = -5000
CPI = EV/AC = 5000/15000 = 33%
SPI = EV /PV = 5000/10000 = 50%
43. CPI and Cumulative CPI
Consider a company that took
earned value measurements at
monthly intervals for the past 3
months as summarized in the table
below:
EV AC
Month 1 $22,000 $13,700
Month 2 $151,000 $137,900
Month 3 $107,000 $98,400
44. Review
Mark one value in each column that
shows the most desirable value.
SPI CPI Payback
Period
ROI
1 .5 16 mos. 9%
0 1 2 yrs. 12%
0.8 1.2 16 wks. -2%
1.2 1.15 25 mos. 3%
45. Review
Project X was projected to take 4
months and cost $70,000 per month.
At the end of month one, the project
was 20% complete, and had spend
$89,000. At the end of month two, it
was 40% complete and had spent
$151,000. What is the cumulative
CPI for project at the end of month
two.
Hinweis der Redaktion
Costs should be planned, quantified, and measured
The project manager should tie costs to activities and resources and build the estimates from bottom up.
A common practice is that the high-level budget is determined before knowing costs;
Many companies use fiscal year planning cycles that must be done far in advance of their project planning.
Although budget constraints are a fact of life, but instead of blindly accepting whatever budget is specified by management, the PM carefully reviews the scope of work and duration estimates and then reconciles them to the scope and costs.
Adjustments to the scope, budget, or the schedule is easier to justify by working up from the detailed level instead of from the top-down.
When it comes to detailed planning: Scope (first) -> Schedule(second) -> Budget(third).
Input to the process to create a budget:
Well defined WBS
Activity List
Resource and Duration for each activity
Schedule
Budget then becomes a task of applying rates against those resources and activities to create:
activity cost estimate,
a cost baseline, and
a cost management plan.
Scope Definition -> Create WBS -> Activity Definition -> Activity Resource Estimating -> Activity Duration Estimating -> Estimate Cost
Life Cycle Costing
Instead of asking “How much will this product cost to develop?” life cycle costing looks at the Total Cost of Ownership from purchase/creation through operations and finally to disposal; it is a practice that encourages making decisions based on the bigger picture of ownership costs.
For example: it may be less expensive for the project to use generic computer servers to develop a software product; however if the organization has expertise and service contracts with IBM, then the project has made a short-sighted decision that will have adverse effects downstream.
It is normal for the cost estimates that will be produced as a result of the “Estimate Cost” process to include reserve/contingency amounts. This is simply a buffer against slippage on the project. The amount of reserve being planned reflects the risk associated with the project.
Cost of Quality
The technique of evaluating the cost of quality (COQ), looks at all the costs that will be realized in order to achieve quality. This tool is often used in the Quality Planning Process. The costs of items that are not conformant to the quality standards are known as “cost of poor quality “COpQ”.
It is equally important to include enough information on how you derived the activity cost estimates.
Requested Changes
When costs are estimated, it is normal that change requests to the project scope/schedule would be made. For instance cost estimates came in higher than the allowable cost constraint, then the project team might elect to review elements of the scope to determine whether there were any non-essential elements that could be cut down in order to get the costs back on track.
Cost Management Plan updates
The cost management plan details how the project costs will be managed and how change or requested changes to the project costs will be managed. As the activity cost estimates are created, it is normal that this plan would be updated, sometimes significantly.
Cost Estimates, prepared for each activity, are thought of in terms of their accuracy. In other words, how much leeway are you giving yourself with your estimating?
Typically, the closer in time you get to actually spending money for an activity, the more precise you want that activity’s estimate to be.
Analogous estimates are typically easier to use, and their accuracy depends on how similar the two projects actually are.
Although budget constraints are a fact of life, but instead of blindly accepting whatever budget is specified by management, the PM carefully reviews the scope of work and duration estimates and then reconciles them to the scope and costs.
Adjustments to the scope, budget, or the schedule is easier to justify by working up from the detailed level instead of from the top-down.
When it comes to detailed planning: Scope (first) -> Schedule(second) -> Budget(third).
Parametric modeling is used on projects with a high degree of historical information, and it works best for linear, scalable projects. For instance, if you knew that it costs $4,000,000 to build a mile of roadway, then you could estimate that it would cost $32,000,000 o build 8 miles of road.
A budget, also known as cost baseline, takes the estimated project expenditures and maps them back to dates on the calendar
Cost budgeting process phases the costs so that the performing organization will know how to plan for cash flow and likely expenditures.
A good cost baseline will prevent the organization from tying up too much money throughout the life of the project.
Cost baseline specifies not only what costs will be incurred, but when they will be incurred.
Controlling processes
Proactive – They do not merely wait for changes to occur, instead, they try to influence the factors that lead to a change.
Measurement – Measure what was executed against what was planned. If the results do not match, then appropriate steps are taken to bring the two back in line. This could be either changing future plans or changing the way the work is performed.
Cost control is primarily concerned with cost variance. Even positive cost (good) variances need to be understood and the plan must be adjusted.
Cost control is not a process that is performed only once. Instead, it is performed regularly throughout the project, typically as soon as the project costs are incurred. Example performing cost control monthly during planning phases and weekly during the execution phases where costs usually peak.
Performance reports: provide a summary of how costs are progressing against the plan for work completed.
Approved changes: Any change request that are approved should be evaluated for their impact on the cost baseline.
Samer Aoudi:
The CPI of month 3 is 1.09 but the cumulative index for the three months is 1.12
SPI = 1.2 (ahead of schedule)
CPI = 1.2 (under budget; project is getting $1.2 worth of performance for every $1 spent.)
Payback Period = 16 wks. (shortest time to recoup the project cost)
ROI = 12%
EV (Month 1) = 20% * 280,000 = $56,000
EV (Month 2) = 20% * 280,000 = $56,000
EV (at the end of 2 months) = $112,000
AC(at the end of 2 months) = $151,000
Cumulative CPI = EV/AC = 112,000/151,000 = 0.74