Defining the Climate Analogues approach and its applications in Agriculture.

1. David Arango and Frederick Atieno
Researchers CCAFS-CIAT and Bioversity
Training Workshop Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 21th- 24th July
Applications of the Climate Analogues approach for site specific adaptation measures in agriculture

2. Climate Analogues
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
David Arango and Frederick Atieno
Researchers CCAFS-CIAT and Bioversity

3. 1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach

4. 1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach

5. What is the Climate Analogues
approach?
The Climate Analogues approach identifies areas where the climate today is similar (analogous) to the future projected climate of another area.

6. •Jointly developed by the Walker Institude (University of Reading, UK) and the program “Decision and Policy Analysis” (DAPA) at CIAT
•Financed by CCAFS theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change
•In colaboration with other contributing people and institutions
What is the Climate Analogues
approach?

7. Definition of a Climate Analogue
• The term climate analogues describes two sites that share similar climatic conditions.
•The two sites may be separated geographically and/or temporally (i.e. similar climatic conditions experienced at different periods of time) as climatic conditions change and migrate.

8. •Compares locations based on similarity in precipitation and temperature but it is also flexible to incorporate other input variables (e.g. soils, infrastructure, social and economic conditions).
Concept of a Climate Analogues

9. Possible analogues
BACKWARD
•Where can I find the future climate of my site today?
MY SITE
(future)
OTHER SITE (s) (current)

10. Possible analogues
FORWARD
•Where can I find the present climate of my site in the future?
MY SITE (current)
OTHER SITE (s) (future)

11. Possible analogues
NONE
•Where can I find the present climate of my site in the world currently?
MY SITE
(current)
OTHER SITE (s) (current)

12. The climate data use by analogues
 Present climate: WorldClim
= interpolated data set of climatic
observations , between the years
1950-2000
 Future climate:
- downsaclaed projected conditions
for the decade 2030 (i.e. 2020-2049)
- scenarios: A1B, A2,B1
- there are 24 GCMs and also an
“Ensemble” option which is the mean
of all GCMS
-30.1
30.5
Mean annual
temperature (ºC)
0
12084
Annual
precipitation (mm)

13. Emissions scenarios
•The emissions scenarios are the results of models used to simulate the future production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) with global development following different socio-economic focus points. (i.e. introduction of renewable energy vs. continued dependence on fossil fuels).
•The different scenarios forecast different GHGs levels in the atmosphere which then translate into variations in future predicted climatic conditions.

14. How do you calculate climatic similiarity?
Climatic similarity is calculated as a vector in n dimensional space. n = number of input parameters
Climatic Distance CCAFS Similarity Index

15. How do you calculate climatic similarity?
m: number of time periods (in months, days)
v: number of variables
V: variable (temperature, precipitation)
W: weight
f: scenario at reference site (future climate)
p: scenario in search range (present climate)
k: variable specific similarity index constant (used to merge variables on different scales)
Climatic Distance CCAFS Similarity Index

16. Input Parameters Growing season of interest
- Entire year
- Growing season of a specific crop
- Rainy season
Seasonal variability- The rotation option

17. Input Parameters Climate models
•You may choose between any of the 24 GCMs
•Or the average of all 24 GCMs = Ensemble
 Reduces uncertainty from using a single model

18. Input Parameters Climatic variables
Combinations of bioclimatic variables also available
Temperature only
Temperature and precipitation
Precipitation only
When using multiple variables it is possible to vary the weight of each depending on the importance that you want it to have in the overall analysis

19. •Climate Analogues is available for use through:
•Functional in Firefox, Google Chrome and IE

20. http://analogues.ciat.cgiar.org/climate/

21. After an analysis…
•Visually investigate the results
•Rerun with different variables
•Download results and information
•Download the code to use in R
•…Validate results with other data sources

22. Lets look at an example from the online tool

23. 1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach

24. What are the application of Climate Analogues?
-Explain differences in crop yields
- Identification of crops and varieties that are adapted to specific growing conditions
- Evaluation of crop growth models
- Farms of the Future
-Exchange of genetic material and collaborative research

25. Farms of the Future
Identification of sites to hold an interchange between agriculturalist and share climate adaptation techniques and experiences
The Climate Analogues concept in the field

26. Possible analogues
BACKWARD
•Where can I find the future climate of my site today?
MY SITE (future)
OTHER SITE (s)
(current)

27. –Different combinations of variables
•Temperature and precipitation
•Temperature only
•Precipitation only
•Combinations with bioclimatic variables
(Rainfall total, temperature of hottest month…)
–Growing period of interest: entire year, specific growing season, rainy season…
–Thresholds and GCM agreement: i.e the closest 5/10/15 and where 60/70/80 % of GCMs agree
–Before selecting a final site we also need to consider socio- economic parameters, infrastructure, cultural boundaries, soils etc.
Identifying exchange sites for FOTF

28. “Which other places currently experience the future projected climate of a reference site, and from which we can transfer climate adaptation and management techniques?
Farms of the Future- Tanzania

29. Reference site: Yamba, Tanzania

30. Lushoto CCAFS site
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Njombe
Nyombo
Mbinga
Farms of the Future in Tanzania Analogue site map

31. Graphs comparing the future climate at the reference site (Yamba) and the current climate at potential exchange sites
 The best analogue sites are those that have a current climate more similar to the future projected climate of the reference site
 Producers are taken from the reference site to investigate the selected analogue sites.

32. Lushoto
Mbuzii
Yamba
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Nyombo
Njombe
Mbinga
Kinole
Journey through analogue sites
Village visits
Starting point
Sepukila Village:
-Matengo pits: Traditional soil and water conservation technique
-Coffee nursery
-Stoves Masasi Village:
-Water source
-Fish pond
-Biogas Mtama Village: - Bee keeping
-Market value chain social enterprise visit
- Input supply Stockists
-Weather station visit
- Bean trial visit
- Tree nursery visit
Farms of the Future in Tanzania
A journey to possible future conditions of Yamba

33. Exchange of Genetic Resources
How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?

34. How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Senahú, Guatemala (Longitude= -89.779, Latitude= 15.477) Banana: all year round Backwards analysis: Where can I find my future climatic conditions currently?
Share the benefits of genetic resources?

35. How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Rubaya, Uganda (Longitude= 30.675, Latitude= -0.441) Banana: all year round Forwards analysis: Where can I find my current climatic conditions in the future?

36. How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Rubaya, Rwanda (Longitude= 30.675, Latitude= -0.441)
Banana: all year round
Forwards analysis: Where can I find my current climatic conditions in the future?

37. - Helps to improve the selection of future plant varieties and identify which varieties have proven to be most adaptable to the given climatic conditions.
- Construct scenarios for users to observe the opportunities to improve access to genetic materials from outside of their country.
- Identify which plant varieties may be most useful for other parts of the world to fulfil the needs to adapt to changing climatic conditions. - Identify areas where there is urgent need to conserve specific genetic materials.
Climate Analogues & TIRFAA

38. A few more words…
•There still exists significant uncertainty in future climate projections and their impacts on agricultural systems, especially at the local level.
•Until now, the adaptation capacity of communities has been a factor that has rarely been taken into account in global policies

39. The use of Climate Analogues significantly improves knowledge of possible management techniques under changing climatic conditions, and supports the identification of appropriate adaptation strategies.

40. Adaptation to Progressive
Climate Change 1 one
>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool
Thanks!
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Contacs!
– David Arango
d.arango@cgiar.org
– Frederick Atieno
f.atieno@cgiar.org