Presentation to FAO brownbag seminar by Lini Wollenberg, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, July 2011.

1. CCAFS: An Overview and Update
FAO 6 July 2011

2. The challenge

3. CCAFS
objectives
1. Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation, risk
management and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and
food systems.
2. Support agricultural issues in
climate change policies, and
of climate issues inagricultural
policies, at all levels.

4. the
partnership
CGIAR +
Earth System Science Partnership
(ESSP).

5. Theme 1.
Adaptation to
Progressive
Climate Change

6. Theme 2.
Managing
Climate Risk

7. Theme 3.
Pro-poor
mitigation

8. Theme 4. Integration for
decision making

9. Climate variability and change
Improved
Technologies, practices, policies environmental
and capacity enhancement: benefits
1. Adaptation to progressive climate Improved
change livelihoods
2. Adaptation through managing
climate risk Improved
3. Pro-poor climate change food security
mitigation
4. Integration for decision making
Enhanced adaptive
capacity in agricultural,
NRM & food systems

10. Place-based field and policy work
Indo-Gangetic
Plains:
West Africa: Parts of
Senegal, Mali, Bur India, Banglades
kina East Africa: h, Nepal
Faso, Ghana, and Tanzania, Ugan
Regional program
Niger da, Kenya, and leader:
Ethiopia Pramod Aggarwal
Regional program
leader: Regional program
Robert Zougmoré leader:
James Kinyangi

11. Some results

12. Climatic analogue tool identifies where the
climate today is a likely analogue to the future
climate at another location.
Evaluate
whether
successful
adaptation
options in one
place are
transferrable
to a future
climatic
analogue site.

13. ImprovingDelivery of Seasonal Forecasts
What CCAFS outputs?
•Knowledge and tools for effective
delivery of seasonal forecasts
• Increased understanding of the ways in
which farmers incorporate climate
information into decision making
Why is it useful?
By teaching farmers how to interpret and use
tailored probabilistic seasonal forecasts, we
can build upon indigenous risk management
strategies as well as the innovative capacity of
farmers to respond to climate variation. We
also learn more about how new technologies
can add value to farmers’ decision making
processes.

14. Integration for decision making:
™
What CCAFS outputs?
A tool to generate daily data
that are characteristic of
future climatologies for any
point on the globe
Why is it useful?
To aid planning & drive
agricultural impact models to
inform resource allocation
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/

15. The AMKN Platform
The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for
accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge.
Initial content
• Location and description
of the 36 CCAFS benchmark
sites
• 31 video testimonials
• 13 stories reflecting
realities on the ground
• 18 photo sets (>400
photographs).

16. Better agricultural GHG estimates
1,000 tCO2e/yr, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption
and fires in grazing lands (CCAFS-Winrock Study: Brown et al 2011)
Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota
Region Country Livestock Total
Change Fertilizer Burned from N
East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7
Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0
Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0
Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7
Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6
West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5
Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6
Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0
Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2
Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5
Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9
Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,

17. Mapped distribution of increases in
cropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006
Brown et
al, 2011

18. Improving measurement further
• Reduce scale of analysis and focus on key
agricultural areas of each country
• Get higher resolution and more accurate data
for land cover/land use and area burned
• Improve monitoring:
– number of ruminant animals
– quantity of N fertilizer used
– carbon stocks of burned areas of grazing lands

19. Improving benefits from carbon
market projects involving farmer
Lessons
- Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr or less)
- Need to decrease costs and risks: pre-existing
institutions, upfront finance critical
- Link to supporting interventions (efficient stoves, new
fuelwood species >protect carbon trees)
- Monitoring livelihoods not most projects’ priority
7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF:
• Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana
• Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya
•Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia
•Ecotrust, NFA, Uganda

20. Role of agriculture in REDD+
2011
Source:
Kissinger

21. Policy Needs: 2011 Nat’l Workshops
Ghana, Mali, Kenya and Ethiopia)

22. Foundational Needs
• Basic data for climate predictions, GHG
emissions, impacts
• Baselines and inventory of existing practices
• Potential of agriculture for adaptation and mitigation
• Priority sectors or interventions for green development
• Reduction targets
• Food security, adaptation and mitigation indicators
• Tools for measuring GHG emissions and soil carbon
• Identifying incentives for action: adaptation and
mitigation

23. Policy priorities
• Decision support tools
• Mainstream CC into development planning
and budget
• Build on existing knowledge and projects: put
existing technologies in to wider practice
• Enhance intersectoral, multiscale
communication, negotiation and coordination

24. Big policy questions
• What are drivers of climate change and how
to influence them? Separate effects of climate
change from other drivers of poverty, food
insecurity and emissions.
• Economic implications of options to support
climate change?
• How to change attitudes and behavior?

25. Other CCAFS mitigation research
• Baseline emissions and scenarios–site level
• GHG quantification
- Simple and cost effective MRV (w/MICCA)
- Livestock system inventory methods
- Regional capacity building
• Incentives (w/MICCA)
- Costs, benefits and adoption barriers
- Delivery mechanisms
• Intensification of cocoa farming to reduce
deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)

26. How to quantify, assess and communicate
tradeoffs?
Soil carbon content
Afforestation policy 2
Food exchange 1 Forest cover
0
Increase
-1
Food local production -2 Species richness
Decrease
-3
Food nutritional value Groundwater recharge
Food affordability GHG mitigation

29. Some questions
Is agricultural mitigation practicable by
smallholders?
How can we move towards 'low climate impact'
agricultural development?
What incentives and incentive delivery
mechanisms are required to support mitigation
by smallholders?
How can we develop more integrated and holistic
approaches to MRV on farms and landscapes?