Presentation by Bruce Campbell, CCAFS Program Director, at the 3rd Africa Climate Smart Agriculture Alliance Forum in Dakar, Senegal, 27–28 March 2019.
3. 0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
Africa's urban
population (billions)
Massive opportunity for African farmers
and food companies
250 million
more mouths to
feed in urban
areas by 2030
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World
Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.
Africa’s annual food import
bill $35 billion
$110 billion by 2025
Diets are changing
• Staples diversifying
• Increased consumption of
fruits, vegetables and
animal-based products
• More “fast foods”
Staatz, J. and F. Hollinger (2016), OECD
Publishing, Paris
Africa Development Bank
4. Region No.
sites
Proportion of households of each type
Scraping
by
Hanging
in
Stepping
up
Stepping
out
East
Africa
8
32.0 42.5 13.6 12.1
West
Africa
5
13.8 69.6 11.0 5.6
Thornton et al. (2018)
> 5 food
deficit
months per
year
practice
changes in
the last 10
years
involving
some
intensification
no practice
changes,
increased
off-farm
income
Standing
still
Situation is dire
5. • Education levels increasing
• Electricity from the grid 2%39%
• Cell phone ownership 71%86%
• Increased use of inputs
• >5 hunger months a year: 47% 36%
Inputs (in the last 12 months) 2011 2018
Seed 11.5% 50.7%
Fertilizer 27.1% 78.6%
Pesticides 30.6% 62.9%
Veterinary medicine 18.4% 24.3%
Agricultural credit 6.6% 26.4%
None of the above 5.9% 8.6%
And not improving fast enough
e.g. Northern Ghana
6. Agricultural transformation too slow…..
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ag transformation cases
globally
Vermeulen et al 2019 Frontiers
• Ethiopia: Pastoralism to
irrigated cropping
• Kenya: Pastoralism to rain-
fed cropping and bee-
keeping
• Kenya: Cattle to camels
• Morocco: Wheat to fruit trees
• Burkina: Switches amongst
transhumance and cropping
• Ethiopia: Livestock
exclosures – 3 M ha
• Niger: Farmer-managed tree
regeneration – 5 M ha
• Mozambique: Use of dual
farm systems to manage risk
7. What will it take
to get
agricultural
transformation?
Fostering
enabling policy
and
institutions
Digitally enabled
climate-informed
services
Climate-resilient
and low-
emission
practices and
technologies
Innovative
finance to
leverage public
& private sector
investments
Reshaping
supply chains,
food retail,
marketing and
procurement
Empower
farmer and
consumer
organizations,
women and
youth
Dinesh et al 2018 CCAFS Infonote
Campbell et al., 2018 Current Opinion
8. Support and coordination from a central
authority
e.g. Agricultural commercialization clusters
In Ethiopia
9. e.g. Duram wheat value
chain
• Clustering of actors
promotes linkages; easier
service delivery
• Strong private sector approach
• Inclusive value chain
development
• Productivity increase
• Positive for different categories
of farm size
• Changes not at expense of
rotation practices
Biggeri et al., 2018 Food Policy
10. Solar powered
irrigation as a
“remunerative crop”
• Sell to the grid
• Sell water to other farmers
• More secure irrigation water
• Positive GHG implications
• Limited over-pumping if
incentives right
• 250 billion dollar investment in
rolling out 2.75 M solar irrigation
pumps in India
14. Evidence for climate risk management
Risk
management
intervention
Stabilize
production,
consumption
Protect
productive
assets
Increased
investment
uptake of
capital,
technology
Improve
livelihoods,
welfare
Stress-adapted
germplasm
Strong None Weak Moderate
Diversified farming
systems
Moderate Weak None Moderate
Index-based
agricultural
insurance
None Moderate Strong Moderate
Social protection Moderate Weak Moderate Strong
Hansen et al., 2019
15. Climate information services
• Ghana – 300,000
farmers now paying for
advisories
• Often in bundles with
other products
Burkina cowpea farmers getting
advisories:
• ⅓-½ of farmers change practices
• 6X more use improved seeds
• 55% higher gross margin
16. Transformation
is needed
Fostering
enabling policy
and
institutions
Digitally enabled
climate-informed
services
Climate-resilient
and low-
emission
practices and
technologies
Innovative
finance to
leverage public
& private sector
investments
Reshaping
supply chains,
food retail,
marketing and
procurement
Empower
farmer and
consumer
organizations,
women and
youth
• NDCs - Is that where we need focus?
• Removing certain subsidies?
• Policies around connectivity?
• Import and taxation policies
• Linking up energy and agric policies
• Linking up health and agric policies
• Basic administrative functioning to improve
ease of doing business
Ease of
doing
business
New
Zealand
1
Rwanda 29
Spain 30
Senegal 141
Zimbabwe 155
17. Where do we need to focus?
• Getting the policies right & the markets
working
• Services:
• Digital climate-informed advisories
• Index-based insurance
• Productive social safety nets
• Micro-irrigation
• Markets, policies, markets, policies, markets,
policies