1. Prof Amos Majule
Module Three
September 2011

2. Introduction to the module
Objectives
Definition of key concepts
 Climate change and agriculture
Why focus on agriculture?
Global and regional impacts on agriculture
Adaptation and coping strategies
 Agricultural innovations and innovation systems
 Suggested reading materials

3. Introduction to the
module

4.  Understand concepts of climate change, climate
change impacts, vulnerability, climate change
adaptation, climate change mitigation, agricultural
innovations and innovation systems

5.  Learn about the impacts of climate change on
agriculture and understand the implications for human
livelihoods

6.  Understand agricultural innovations and innovation
systems for adaptation and mitigation and factors that
enable and impede these innovations

7. Definition of key
concepts

8.  A shift of climatic conditions in a directional incremental
mode with values of climatic elements changing significantly
and as long-term weather patterns that describe a region
 Evidence of climate change could be detected over several
decades
 It is documented as one of the most challenging emerging
problems facing the world in the 21st century (IPCC 2007)

9.  Cited changes indicate;
-warming of temperatures during the 20th century
-changes in precipitation across the globe
-changes in sea level and ice and snow extent
(Boko et al., 2007 and IPCC, 2001 & 2007)
 e.g., since 1978 annual average Arctic sea ice extent has
shrunk by 2.7% per decade
 Mt Kilimanjaro-reduction of ice cap

10.  There may be both positive and negative effects of observed
climate related parametres
-droughts, floods, heat waves
 Both direct and indirect
-direct-increased heat by increased temperature
-indirect-increase in malaria incidence
 Compounded by interactions with non-climatic stresses such
as socio-economic, political, cultural

11.  Negative impacts of climate change are likely to hit the
poorest people in the poorest countries hardest
 Low income countries’ vulnerability tends to increase
 Women are disproportionately vulnerable to the effects of
climate change because of gender differences (Kyomuhendo
& Muhanguzi, 2008 and Nelson & Sthathers, 2009).

12.  The ability or inability of individuals and social groupings to
respond to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and
wellbeing (Kelly & Adger 2000)
 High degree of exposure to risk, shocks and stress and
proneness to food insecurity (Ellis 2000)
 Varies widely across people in the same or different places

13.  the likelihood that an
individual or a group of
individuals will be exposed to
and adversely affected by
dreadful conditions (Cutter,
2001).
 Ability to absorb shocks and
trends
 Measure the magnitude of
impacts
 This is a function of four major
factors;
◦ Environment
◦ Economic
◦ Social
◦ Institutional set up

14.  Adaptation is usually distinguished from coping , which is
conceptualised as a short term mechanism of dealing with
immediate shocks
 Coping begins when a household is forced to mobilize
resources to respond to crises
 Also responses to declining food availability and entitlements
in abnormal seasons or years

15.  Adaptation includes responses and adjustments to actual or
potential impacts of changing climatic conditions
 Positive actions to change frequency or intensity of impacts
(Adger et. al 2003)
 The outcome of a process of considering simultaneously a
wide variety of stressors—including, climatic factors (Reid &
Vogel 2006)

16.  Adjustment in the system in response to actual
or expected stress factor (climate) and its
impacts.
 Long term measures suitable for a particular
social or environment
◦ Suitable soil and water management practices
◦ Appropriate seed sowing methods
◦ Appropriate food storage facilities
◦ Appropriate crop types and seeds
◦ Appropriate building structures ets

17.  The degree to which adjustments are possible in practices or
structures of systems to projected or actual changes of
climate
 This is largely influenced by resilience within the
system/community
(UNFCCC, 2002 and Reid & Vogel, 2006)
 It is also the ability of farmers to respond successfully and
make adjustments to climate change

18.  This is done by drawing on resources and technologies
 Adaptive capacity is the ability to ameliorate the negative
consequences of climate change and take advantage of
positive changes
 Adaptive capacity is determined by technological ability,
economic resources and human, political and social capital
(Tol et al., 2004)

19.  Potential or the ability of a system region or
communities to adapt to the effects or impacts
of a stressor
 Developed countries Vs Developing countries
 Within countries (Low and High Favoured
areas)
 Within communities (The rich, the middle and
the poor)
 Gender, age, health etc (at family level)

20.  Human capital
◦ Knowledge on climate (scientific and local)
◦ Technical and political
◦ Education level/perceptions/health status
 Information and technology
◦ Communication network (radio, TV, etc)
◦ Freedom of expression
◦ Technology transfer and packaging of information
◦ Innovative systems and capacity
◦ Early warning systems

21.  Organisation and social capital
◦ State of CSO relationships
◦ Local coping networks (SACCOS, borrowing and lending
institutions)
◦ Social mobilization
◦ Density of institutional network
 Material resource and infrastructure
◦ Transport system
◦ Water infrastructure
◦ Sanitation
◦ Energy supply and management

22.  Political capital
◦ Modes of governance
◦ Leadership legitimacy
◦ Participation in decision making
◦ Decision and management capacity
◦ Sovereignty (trans boundary water course)
 Wealth and financial capital
◦ Income and wealth distribution
◦ Economic marginalization
◦ Availability/accessing credits
◦ Fiscal incentives for risk management

23. Climate change and
agriculture

24.  Climate change directly affects agricultural production
 Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climatic conditions
 It is one of the most vulnerable sectors to risks and
 Climate exerts significant pressure on the economic
development of Africa, particularly for agriculture and water-
resources
(Boko et al. 2007)

25.  Agriculture is a mainstay of local livelihoods and national GDP
in some countries in Africa
 Climate change could exacerbate socio-economic instability
for agro-based countries
 Disruptions in food and water systems adversely affect
development and livelihoods and add to the already existing
challenges for poverty eradication

26.  Agriculture is a vital source of food and the prevailing way of
life in Africa
 An average of 70% of the world population lives by farming,
and 40% of all exports are earned from agricultural products
(WRI, 1996)
 In this regard, agricultural and economic growth must rise in
order to realize basic development goals.

27. Negative climate
change impacts on
agriculture

28.  A drop in crop yields was the strongest negative deviation
from the long-term trend in Europe in the last 43 years
 A Heat wave in 2003 and a long period with low or no
precipitation led to droughts in large parts of Europe
 Greece, Portugal, France, Italy and Austria, suffered from yield
drops of up to 30% in this period

29.  Tick increases are attributed to temperature increases in past
decades-1980s
- Baltic countries; Sweden, Finland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia and
Lithuania were heavily affected, including
-Central European countries; Switzerland, Germany, Czech
Republic and Slovakia
(Lindgren et al., 2000 )

30.  Africa is under pressure from climate stresses and is highly
vulnerable to their impacts
 Estimates show one third of African people already live in
drought-prone areas and 220 million are exposed to drought
each year (UNFCCC, 2007)
 IPCC predicts that by 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture in
some countries could be halved and agricultural production
and access to food may be severely compromised.
(Vermuelen et al., 2008).

31.  The ENSO floods in 1998 in East Africa resulted in human
suffering and deaths, as well as extensive damage to
infrastructure and crops in Kenya (Magadza, 2000)
 Droughts in the Southern Africa region in 1991–1992 and
1997–1998 affected livelihoods and economies
 The impacts of the 1991–1992 droughts in Zimbabwe are
estimated to have been 9% of GDP (Benson & Clay, 1998)
 Past trends on droughts and floods and poor harvests in 2005
caused hunger in most parts of the Tanzania (WHO, 2007)

32.  In higher altitude and latitude regions, livestock are exposed
to winter temperatures below their optimum
 Increased precipitation as a consequence of climate change
could increase the risk of infections in livestock and people
(Baylis & Githeko, 2006)
 El Nino, an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in 1997-1998 in
Somalia and Northern Kenya killed as much as 80% of the
livestock and many cases were reported in Tanzania
 The RVF was linked to flooding (WHO, 1998b)
 Heat stress and drought have negative impacts on animal
health and production of dairy products

33.  In northwest Kenya, recurring droughts have led to increased
competition for grazing resources, livestock losses and conflict
 In 2005/6 drought, the Maasai communities in the Kajiando
district in Kenya lost 95% of their livestock and became food
insecure (IDRC/CCAA 2009; SEI 2008)
 The snow and glaciers of Mount Kilimanjaro, Ruwenzori in
Uganda and Mount Kenya are under threat
(IDRC/CCAA 2009).

34.  Climate change does not
only affect crops and
livestock, but also the
socio-economic context and
human health
 There are both direct and
structural impacts on
agriculture

35. Positive climate change
impacts on agriculture

36.  Heat wave 2003-Denmark and Finland profited from higher
temperatures and lower rainfall
 Earlier sowing date for certain crops due to an earlier start
 Longer duration of the vegetation period

37.  Model simulations suggest net effects of studied climate
scenarios in agriculture in the USA’s economy over the 21st
century are generally positive
 Most commercial crops in the USA; wheat, rice, barley, oats,
potatoes, and most vegetable crops, tend to respond
favourably to increased CO2
 A doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to yield
increases in the range of 15- 20%
(NAST 200)

38.  Negative effects are overwhelming but climate change
sometimes may have a positive impact
 Mostly on structural changes in local economies and
livelihood patterns under certain circumstances- localised
benefits
-in a study done in Southern Zambia farmers became more
enterprising than before due to climate induced hardships
-opportunity to cultivate crops in winter season after flood
episodes (Mubaya 2010)

39.  There may also be a few
positive impacts (localised
benefits) that can be
capitalised on to improve
the livelihoods of farmers
all districts
 (small scale farmers
continue to irrigate crops
due to overflowing dams
after floods in Zambia)

40.  Organic agriculture through conservation farming
 Lowering the need for slash and burn cropping
 Postponing harvests
 Reducing burning
 Conversion of agricultural land to forestry
(Alig 2003)
Biofuel production by smallholder farmers and ‘out-grower’ or local
contracted farmer arrangements (Sulle & Nelson 2009

41. Coping and adaptation
strategies

42.  Desperate strategies that farmers take to cope in the
immediate term and cannot sustain the household for long
 Examples of coping strategies include;
-consuming crops before maturity due to hunger,
-borrowing money or food
-disposal of key productive assets

43.  Examples of documented adaptation to climate change in Africa
include;
-crop diversification
- Irrigation
- construction of water reservoirs
- accumulating food surpluses
- use of drought resistant varieties
(Boko et al. 2007; Adger et al. 2007; Cooper et al. 2006)

44. Identify a case study in a country of your choice
1. What climate change issue/s are farmers faced with
2. List impacts from these climate changes
3. What response strategies do these farmers employ
4. Categorize each strategy under either coping or adaptation
and give reasons why

45. THANK YOU