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Where Does Agriculture Need to be in
                          2030/50?
                         15 February 2011
Global Agriculture
               “The Burning Platform”


•   Population Growth
•   Arable Farmland
•   Competition for Arable Land (Biofuels, population)
•   Water Quality and Availability
•   Climate Change/Variability
•   Agricultural Productivity (?)
•   Farmer Profitability (?)
     – Prices
     – Costs
     – productivity
World Population Growth: Projected to 2050
                                                       +/- 900 MMT           2050
                                                        Demand in       +/- 9.3 Billion
                                                         40 years
                                                       (+ 240 MMT)

                                        2010
                                     6.8 Billion
                  239 MHA


                                         660+ MMT


                                                   30 year down trend



 229 MMT

           World wheat consumption                 World wheat harvested area
World Production and Use
                     November, 2010


      700
      680
      660
                                                                   666
      640                                                   653
      620
MMT




                                                             683
      600
      580




                                                                   643
      560
      540
      520
      500
            01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

                             Production     Use
Published: September 2, 2010
  Fears grow over global food supply




Two days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and
280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30%
Rainfall trend 1970-2008
Challenges for the
             Australian Grains Industry


Declining rates of Total
Factor Productivity
growth
– Drought years
– Decreased RD&E
  expenditure ($, direction)
– Lack of „near term‟
  technologies
– GM (cereals) 10 years
  away
– Farm management
  capability
Farmer Profitability

High levels of farm debt amongst broadacre farms ...
…
$’000 2008/09 dollars
800
                                                    Farm debt

600



400
                                    Farm receipts

200
                                           Farm cash income

  0
      1978   1983     1988   1993       1998        2003    2008
Global Agriculture
              “The Way Forward”

• Government Policy (National and International)
       Socio/economic
       Trade policies
       Industry restructuring
       Investments in RD&E
       Recognition of “Global Village”
       Climate variability/change
                                              S
                                              U
•   Increased productivity                    S
                                              T
     Industry restructure                    A
     Focussed and driven RD&E                I
                                              N
                                              A
                                              B
•   Increased profitability                   I
    • terms of trade                          L
                                              I
    • productivity                            T
                                              Y
Grains Industry – Global Trends


                        Increased
                          urban
                        population

 Resource                                          Increased
 Scarcity                                          free trade




                         Food



 Sustainable                                       Food safety
development                                        traceability
               Energy                Environment
The grains industry next 20 years –
                            Mega trends
Factors                                          Priorities
Main Game                                        ↑↑Yield                      )
- Wheat; barley                                   WUE                         ) Productivity
- Sorghum North                                   Cost Efficiency             ) &
- Broadleaf ↑ (hopefully!)                       Abiotic/Biotic stress        ) Profitability
                                                  Quality                     )
Niche/value added opportunities                  Identify and develop (<500k tons)
(Taiwan noodles, HAW, sponge & dough)
East Coast/West Coast                            Grain types/quality
Climate change                                   HRZ wheats, irrigated wheats
- Geography shifts                                Crops
- ETS                                             Livestock
                                                  Costs
                                                  Legumes
GM Technologies                                  ↑Productivity (unlikely < 10years)
Quality/Traceability                             Market opportunities/requirements
Grain Farms                                       Numbers
                                                  Size & business
Second generation biofuels                       Location
                                                 Size
Grains Industry supply chain                     Continued consolidation and globalization
National Grains RD&E Strategy (International?)   ↑ Productivity ↑Profitability and Sustainability
Grains Industry


National Research Development & Extension
                 Strategy




               December 2010
National RD&E Priorities & Delivery Plan

Vision                                              A PROFITABLE. COMPETITIVE AND SUSTAINABLE GRAINS INDUSTRY
                                                                        ↑Yield ↑Value ↓Costs ↑Sustainability

Industry Outcome                              Total Factor Productivity Growth of Greater than 2.5% per annum over the Next Decade
                                                           whilst Sustaining the Productive Capacity of the Resource base.




National RD&E Outcome                                              Highly Efficient National Grains RD&E Sector
                                         National Centres of Research Capability, National Research Programs, Regional Networks of RD&E


RD&E Strategies                BUILD ON EXISTING         DEVELOP EFFECTIVE        NATIONAL RESEARCH            NATIONAL CAPABILITY    BETTER & ON-GOING
Partners                       NATIONAL                  RELATIONSHIP             PROGRAMS, NATIONAL           PLANNING FOR HUMAN     ALIGNMENT OF
                               COLLABORATION             MODELS FOR PRIVATE       CENTRES OF RESEARCH          AND PHYSICAL           STAKEHOLDER
DAFF
                                                         - PUBLIC COEXISTENCE     CAPABILITY AND REGIONAL      INFRASTRUCTURE         PRIORITIES AND RD&E
State Departments
                                                                                  NETWORKS OF APPLIED                                 RESOURCE ALLOCATION
CSIRO
Universities                                                                      RD&E UNDER THE “MAJOR-
                                                                                  SUPPORT-LINK”
GRDC
GCA                                                                               FRAMEWORK




Industry & Government          Improved Varieties to Lift      Improved Practices to              Supply Chain Innovation &     Building Farm Business &
                               Productivity & Product          Enhance Productivity &             Market Competitiveness        Industry Capability
Priorities                     Value                           Sustainability


Productivity                   Growers and industry have       Improved on-farm practices         Advance industry knowledge    Accelerate adoption of new
Markets                        ongoing access to improved      that increase productivity and     throughout the supply chain   technologies and practice
Biosecurity                    genetics and varieties with     profitability whilst maintaining   to improve the                change across all segments of
                               better on-farm performance,     or improving the natural           competitiveness and           the grains industry
Climate
                               reduced cost of production      resource base and product          profitability of the sector
Natural resource management    and grain qualities that are    integrity
Regional & industry capacity   competitive in global markets
Statement on Biotech Commercialization
1969 Rainfall
   50                                               Total rainfall 217mm
        Growing Season
   45

   40
            Rainfall                              Yield 400kg / ha
        April to October
   35
            152mm
   30

mm 25
   20

   15

   10

    5

    0
        Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul    Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec

                                      Month
2002 Rainfall
   30                                                     Total rainfall 164mm
        Growing Season
   25
            Rainfall                               Yield 990kg / ha
        April to October
   20
            110mm


mm 15

   10



    5



    0
        Jan   Feb   Mar    Apr   May   Jun   Jul    Aug     Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec

                                       Month
Summary


•   Future Challenges but equally great opportunities will
    require:

     Clearly defined strategies
      • Government
      • Private

     Effective change management

     Strong relationship management

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Where does agriculture need to be in 2030/50? - Peter Reading

  • 1. Where Does Agriculture Need to be in 2030/50? 15 February 2011
  • 2. Global Agriculture “The Burning Platform” • Population Growth • Arable Farmland • Competition for Arable Land (Biofuels, population) • Water Quality and Availability • Climate Change/Variability • Agricultural Productivity (?) • Farmer Profitability (?) – Prices – Costs – productivity
  • 3. World Population Growth: Projected to 2050 +/- 900 MMT 2050 Demand in +/- 9.3 Billion 40 years (+ 240 MMT) 2010 6.8 Billion 239 MHA 660+ MMT 30 year down trend 229 MMT World wheat consumption World wheat harvested area
  • 4. World Production and Use November, 2010 700 680 660 666 640 653 620 MMT 683 600 580 643 560 540 520 500 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Production Use
  • 5. Published: September 2, 2010 Fears grow over global food supply Two days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and 280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30%
  • 7. Challenges for the Australian Grains Industry Declining rates of Total Factor Productivity growth – Drought years – Decreased RD&E expenditure ($, direction) – Lack of „near term‟ technologies – GM (cereals) 10 years away – Farm management capability
  • 8. Farmer Profitability High levels of farm debt amongst broadacre farms ... … $’000 2008/09 dollars 800 Farm debt 600 400 Farm receipts 200 Farm cash income 0 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
  • 9. Global Agriculture “The Way Forward” • Government Policy (National and International)  Socio/economic  Trade policies  Industry restructuring  Investments in RD&E  Recognition of “Global Village”  Climate variability/change S U • Increased productivity S T  Industry restructure A  Focussed and driven RD&E I N A B • Increased profitability I • terms of trade L I • productivity T Y
  • 10. Grains Industry – Global Trends Increased urban population Resource Increased Scarcity free trade Food Sustainable Food safety development traceability Energy Environment
  • 11. The grains industry next 20 years – Mega trends Factors Priorities Main Game ↑↑Yield ) - Wheat; barley WUE ) Productivity - Sorghum North Cost Efficiency ) & - Broadleaf ↑ (hopefully!) Abiotic/Biotic stress ) Profitability Quality ) Niche/value added opportunities Identify and develop (<500k tons) (Taiwan noodles, HAW, sponge & dough) East Coast/West Coast Grain types/quality Climate change HRZ wheats, irrigated wheats - Geography shifts Crops - ETS Livestock Costs Legumes GM Technologies ↑Productivity (unlikely < 10years) Quality/Traceability Market opportunities/requirements Grain Farms Numbers Size & business Second generation biofuels Location Size Grains Industry supply chain Continued consolidation and globalization National Grains RD&E Strategy (International?) ↑ Productivity ↑Profitability and Sustainability
  • 12. Grains Industry National Research Development & Extension Strategy December 2010
  • 13. National RD&E Priorities & Delivery Plan Vision A PROFITABLE. COMPETITIVE AND SUSTAINABLE GRAINS INDUSTRY ↑Yield ↑Value ↓Costs ↑Sustainability Industry Outcome Total Factor Productivity Growth of Greater than 2.5% per annum over the Next Decade whilst Sustaining the Productive Capacity of the Resource base. National RD&E Outcome Highly Efficient National Grains RD&E Sector National Centres of Research Capability, National Research Programs, Regional Networks of RD&E RD&E Strategies BUILD ON EXISTING DEVELOP EFFECTIVE NATIONAL RESEARCH NATIONAL CAPABILITY BETTER & ON-GOING Partners NATIONAL RELATIONSHIP PROGRAMS, NATIONAL PLANNING FOR HUMAN ALIGNMENT OF COLLABORATION MODELS FOR PRIVATE CENTRES OF RESEARCH AND PHYSICAL STAKEHOLDER DAFF - PUBLIC COEXISTENCE CAPABILITY AND REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PRIORITIES AND RD&E State Departments NETWORKS OF APPLIED RESOURCE ALLOCATION CSIRO Universities RD&E UNDER THE “MAJOR- SUPPORT-LINK” GRDC GCA FRAMEWORK Industry & Government Improved Varieties to Lift Improved Practices to Supply Chain Innovation & Building Farm Business & Productivity & Product Enhance Productivity & Market Competitiveness Industry Capability Priorities Value Sustainability Productivity Growers and industry have Improved on-farm practices Advance industry knowledge Accelerate adoption of new Markets ongoing access to improved that increase productivity and throughout the supply chain technologies and practice Biosecurity genetics and varieties with profitability whilst maintaining to improve the change across all segments of better on-farm performance, or improving the natural competitiveness and the grains industry Climate reduced cost of production resource base and product profitability of the sector Natural resource management and grain qualities that are integrity Regional & industry capacity competitive in global markets
  • 14. Statement on Biotech Commercialization
  • 15. 1969 Rainfall 50 Total rainfall 217mm Growing Season 45 40 Rainfall Yield 400kg / ha April to October 35 152mm 30 mm 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
  • 16. 2002 Rainfall 30 Total rainfall 164mm Growing Season 25 Rainfall Yield 990kg / ha April to October 20 110mm mm 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
  • 17. Summary • Future Challenges but equally great opportunities will require:  Clearly defined strategies • Government • Private  Effective change management  Strong relationship management