2. Global Agriculture
“The Burning Platform”
• Population Growth
• Arable Farmland
• Competition for Arable Land (Biofuels, population)
• Water Quality and Availability
• Climate Change/Variability
• Agricultural Productivity (?)
• Farmer Profitability (?)
– Prices
– Costs
– productivity
3. World Population Growth: Projected to 2050
+/- 900 MMT 2050
Demand in +/- 9.3 Billion
40 years
(+ 240 MMT)
2010
6.8 Billion
239 MHA
660+ MMT
30 year down trend
229 MMT
World wheat consumption World wheat harvested area
4. World Production and Use
November, 2010
700
680
660
666
640 653
620
MMT
683
600
580
643
560
540
520
500
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Production Use
5. Published: September 2, 2010
Fears grow over global food supply
Two days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and
280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30%
7. Challenges for the
Australian Grains Industry
Declining rates of Total
Factor Productivity
growth
– Drought years
– Decreased RD&E
expenditure ($, direction)
– Lack of „near term‟
technologies
– GM (cereals) 10 years
away
– Farm management
capability
9. Global Agriculture
“The Way Forward”
• Government Policy (National and International)
Socio/economic
Trade policies
Industry restructuring
Investments in RD&E
Recognition of “Global Village”
Climate variability/change
S
U
• Increased productivity S
T
Industry restructure A
Focussed and driven RD&E I
N
A
B
• Increased profitability I
• terms of trade L
I
• productivity T
Y
10. Grains Industry – Global Trends
Increased
urban
population
Resource Increased
Scarcity free trade
Food
Sustainable Food safety
development traceability
Energy Environment
11. The grains industry next 20 years –
Mega trends
Factors Priorities
Main Game ↑↑Yield )
- Wheat; barley WUE ) Productivity
- Sorghum North Cost Efficiency ) &
- Broadleaf ↑ (hopefully!) Abiotic/Biotic stress ) Profitability
Quality )
Niche/value added opportunities Identify and develop (<500k tons)
(Taiwan noodles, HAW, sponge & dough)
East Coast/West Coast Grain types/quality
Climate change HRZ wheats, irrigated wheats
- Geography shifts Crops
- ETS Livestock
Costs
Legumes
GM Technologies ↑Productivity (unlikely < 10years)
Quality/Traceability Market opportunities/requirements
Grain Farms Numbers
Size & business
Second generation biofuels Location
Size
Grains Industry supply chain Continued consolidation and globalization
National Grains RD&E Strategy (International?) ↑ Productivity ↑Profitability and Sustainability
13. National RD&E Priorities & Delivery Plan
Vision A PROFITABLE. COMPETITIVE AND SUSTAINABLE GRAINS INDUSTRY
↑Yield ↑Value ↓Costs ↑Sustainability
Industry Outcome Total Factor Productivity Growth of Greater than 2.5% per annum over the Next Decade
whilst Sustaining the Productive Capacity of the Resource base.
National RD&E Outcome Highly Efficient National Grains RD&E Sector
National Centres of Research Capability, National Research Programs, Regional Networks of RD&E
RD&E Strategies BUILD ON EXISTING DEVELOP EFFECTIVE NATIONAL RESEARCH NATIONAL CAPABILITY BETTER & ON-GOING
Partners NATIONAL RELATIONSHIP PROGRAMS, NATIONAL PLANNING FOR HUMAN ALIGNMENT OF
COLLABORATION MODELS FOR PRIVATE CENTRES OF RESEARCH AND PHYSICAL STAKEHOLDER
DAFF
- PUBLIC COEXISTENCE CAPABILITY AND REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PRIORITIES AND RD&E
State Departments
NETWORKS OF APPLIED RESOURCE ALLOCATION
CSIRO
Universities RD&E UNDER THE “MAJOR-
SUPPORT-LINK”
GRDC
GCA FRAMEWORK
Industry & Government Improved Varieties to Lift Improved Practices to Supply Chain Innovation & Building Farm Business &
Productivity & Product Enhance Productivity & Market Competitiveness Industry Capability
Priorities Value Sustainability
Productivity Growers and industry have Improved on-farm practices Advance industry knowledge Accelerate adoption of new
Markets ongoing access to improved that increase productivity and throughout the supply chain technologies and practice
Biosecurity genetics and varieties with profitability whilst maintaining to improve the change across all segments of
better on-farm performance, or improving the natural competitiveness and the grains industry
Climate
reduced cost of production resource base and product profitability of the sector
Natural resource management and grain qualities that are integrity
Regional & industry capacity competitive in global markets
15. 1969 Rainfall
50 Total rainfall 217mm
Growing Season
45
40
Rainfall Yield 400kg / ha
April to October
35
152mm
30
mm 25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
16. 2002 Rainfall
30 Total rainfall 164mm
Growing Season
25
Rainfall Yield 990kg / ha
April to October
20
110mm
mm 15
10
5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
17. Summary
• Future Challenges but equally great opportunities will
require:
Clearly defined strategies
• Government
• Private
Effective change management
Strong relationship management