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By
Srividya V
Varsha R
 What is Inflation?
 Related Terms
 Types of Inflation
 Measurement of Inflation
 Stages of Inflation
 Inflation Accounting
 Causes
 Effects
 Costs of Inflation
 Relation with GDP, Currency
 Measures to keep inflation in check
 Indian Economy & Inflation
 Conclusion
 Inflationis a sustained
 increase in the general
 level of prices of goods
 and services in an
 economy over a period
 of time.

 decreasein purchasing
 power of money.
1956     Commodities     2011
(Rupees                  (Rupees
 Per Kg)                  Per Kg)
  .30         Rice         32


  .25        Wheat         35


   3         Almonds       350


  .20        Potato        16
Deflation   Disflation




Reflation   Stagflation
Related to basic economic
    principles of supply and demand :

 Increase in the money supply.
 Increase in the aggregate demand
  for goods and services.
 Commercial Policies
 Deficit Financing
 Banking policies
 Increasing costs of production
 Anti – social activities
On rising
          prices




  On
causes
Creeping inflation




Walking Inflation




Running Inflation




Galloping Inflation




    Hyper inflation
Demand Pull Inflation              Cost Push Inflation

   Increase in aggregate         Cost push inflation
    Demand                         succeeds Demand-pull
                                   inflation
   More money chases
    relatively less quantity      Demand for factors of
    of goods and services          Production increases

   excess of demand              Prices are “pushed up”
    pushes up the prices of        by increase in costs of
    goods and services             factors of production
Goods that are
  representative of the
economy are put together




         market
         basket
 Adopted   by countries such as India,
  Philippines etc
 Uses 435 commodities for inflation
  calculation which represent various strata of
  the economy
 It is calculated on a base year and In India
  base year is 2004-05
 WPI = Base yr price (Rs 100) + rate of
  increase in price from base yr till the yr
  under consideration
 Weighted   average of 435 commodities to
  arrive at overall WPI
 Weights depend on the commodities
  influence on economy
 (WPI of end of year – WPI of beginning of
  year)/WPI of beginning of year x 100
 For example, WPI on Jan 1st 2010 is 106 and
  WPI of Jan 1st 2011 is 109 then inflation rate
  for the year 2010 is
 (109 – 106)/106 x 100 = 3.42%
   Adopted by countries such as USA, UK, Japan and
    China.

   commodities for inflation calculation are the
    goods and services purchased by a “typical
    consumer”

   For instance, in January 2007, the U.S. Consumer
    Price Index was 202.4, and in January 2008 it was
    211

   (211.08-202.41)/202.41*100 = 4.28%
   Index prices are expressed in relation to the
    base year price

   Modifying the weights assigned to the goods

   New products may be introduced, older products
    disappear but both the sorts of goods are
    included in the "basket“

   Inflation numbers are often seasonally adjusted

   May focus only on certain kinds of prices,
    or special indices
Pre-full
employment stage

  Full employment
  stage

    Post-full
    employment stage
 Adjusting   the financial statements as per the
    changes in the purchasing power of money.

 Two   ways of restatement/adjustment

 Accounting for Current purchasing power of
  rupee
 Current cost accounting
 Wholesale price index of RBI is used
 Distinction between Monetary and Non-Monetary
  items
 Only Non-Monetary items need to be restated
 Ex : Investments were made at a cost of Rs 6L in
  July 2005 and price index was 300.
  On 31st Mar 2011 price index is 320 and market
  value of investment is 6,10,000/-
 Loss = Cost – Market value
6L*320 = 6.4L                  6.1L
    300
 Loss= 30,000/-
 Takes into account the price changes
  relevant to the particular firm/Industry and
  not economy as a whole
 Important features
 Fixed assets are shown at their current value
 Stocks are shown at the value of their
  business
 Depreciation is calculated on current values
 Difference between current values and
  depreciated costs of FA is transferred to
  revaluation reserve a/c
 Depreciation       adjustment
Particulars                 Historical Cost   Current Cost
                            Accounting        Accounting
Value of the asset          50,000            1,00,000
Current depreciation        5,000             10,000
Accumulated dep (Op bal)    15,000            30,000
Total accumulated dep       20,000            40,000
Balance sheet value (WDV)   30,000            60,000
 Backlog depreciation
= 1,00,000-60,000-(15,000+10,000) = 15,000
Should be charged to revaluation reserve
Effects on production   Distributional effects   Other effects


     Misallocation of          Debtors and
        resources                                    Government
                                creditors

       Reduction in             Business              Balance of
          saving               community              payments

     Hinders foreign          Fixed Income
         capital                 groups             Exchange rate


                                Investors               Social


                                Farmers
 Business   Growth

 Plunging   Debt Values

 Stock   Values Increases

 Asset   Values Increases
   International competitiveness

   Confusion and Uncertainty

   Shoe leather costs

   Income redistribution

   Boom and Bust Economic Cycles

   Cost of Reducing Inflation

   Fiscal Drag
   People spend more and GDP increases

   “The Slippery Slope”

   Too much of GDP growth is dangerous as it leads
    to increase in inflation

   If GDP was calculated to be 6% higher than the
    previous year, but inflation was measured 2%
    then the GDP rate to be reported is 4%

   GDP figures are reported after adjusting for
    inflation.
Relationship between inflation and interest
 rates for a particular currency decide whether
 or not that currency is growing stronger or
 weaker


                                  Buying power   Increase the
Increase in money   Prices will
                                   of money is   bank interest
      supply         increase
                                     eroded          rates
   Zimbabwe’s inflation was
    1,00,000% in 2008 and was
    recorded as highest in the
    world !!!

    1USD = 25 million Zimbabwean dollar

   Issued a 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar note

   Excess Supply of Money which is not supported by
    growth of Output of Goods and Services
   It is neither high nor steady

   Despite high inflation and colossal corruption
    patterns - India overcame the reparation done by
    global recession with little slower growth rate

   The latest data of the government food price index
    shows they jumped almost 17% last financial year

   Inflation, interest rates, fiscal deficit, current
    account deficit and depreciation of local currency
    could be the reason for slowing down the economic
    growth
Inflation Rate
14
                                          12
12                                 10.9
10                           8.4               8.5
                                                     7.65
 8
                   5.8 6.4
 6
     3.8 3.8 4.2
 4                                                          Inflation Rate
 2
 0
   Combined Consumer Price Inflation stood at an
    annual 7.65%

   This was the first time Consumer Price Inflation
    Data released by CSO

   Government had been relying on WPI data which
    economists say, does not capture the inflation
    situation fully

   Globally, Central Banks and Policy Makers rely on
    CPI Data
   Oils, milk and milk products, Fruits, Clothing, fuel
    continued to remain stubborn.

   Vegetables Prices declined an annual 24.87%

   Economists said its difficult to draw any conclusion
    from the CPI data – lacks history

   RBI has raised interest rates 13 times since march
    2010 to tame price pressures

   CPI data showed that inflation continues to remain
    firm
Monetary               Fiscal Measures        Other Measures
Policies               • Reduction in         • Increase in
• Issue of New           Public Expenditure     Production
  Currency             • Increase in Taxes    • Proper commercial
• Cash Reserve Ratio   • Increase in            policy
• Bank Rate of           Imports              • Encouragement to
  Interest             • Decrease in            saving
                         Exports
You now know that inflation isn't basically good
    or bad.

   When inflation goes up, there is a decline in the
    purchasing power of money.

   Variations on inflation include deflation and
    stagflation.

   Two theories as to the cause of inflation are
    demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.

   Lack of inflation is not necessarily a good thing.

   Inflation is a serious problem for fixed income
    investors.
Inflation

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Inflation

  • 2.  What is Inflation?  Related Terms  Types of Inflation  Measurement of Inflation  Stages of Inflation  Inflation Accounting  Causes  Effects  Costs of Inflation  Relation with GDP, Currency  Measures to keep inflation in check  Indian Economy & Inflation  Conclusion
  • 3.  Inflationis a sustained increase in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.  decreasein purchasing power of money.
  • 4. 1956 Commodities 2011 (Rupees (Rupees Per Kg) Per Kg) .30 Rice 32 .25 Wheat 35 3 Almonds 350 .20 Potato 16
  • 5. Deflation Disflation Reflation Stagflation
  • 6. Related to basic economic principles of supply and demand :  Increase in the money supply.  Increase in the aggregate demand for goods and services.  Commercial Policies  Deficit Financing  Banking policies  Increasing costs of production  Anti – social activities
  • 7. On rising prices On causes
  • 8. Creeping inflation Walking Inflation Running Inflation Galloping Inflation Hyper inflation
  • 9. Demand Pull Inflation Cost Push Inflation  Increase in aggregate  Cost push inflation Demand succeeds Demand-pull inflation  More money chases relatively less quantity  Demand for factors of of goods and services Production increases  excess of demand  Prices are “pushed up” pushes up the prices of by increase in costs of goods and services factors of production
  • 10. Goods that are representative of the economy are put together market basket
  • 11.  Adopted by countries such as India, Philippines etc  Uses 435 commodities for inflation calculation which represent various strata of the economy  It is calculated on a base year and In India base year is 2004-05  WPI = Base yr price (Rs 100) + rate of increase in price from base yr till the yr under consideration
  • 12.  Weighted average of 435 commodities to arrive at overall WPI  Weights depend on the commodities influence on economy  (WPI of end of year – WPI of beginning of year)/WPI of beginning of year x 100  For example, WPI on Jan 1st 2010 is 106 and WPI of Jan 1st 2011 is 109 then inflation rate for the year 2010 is  (109 – 106)/106 x 100 = 3.42%
  • 13. Adopted by countries such as USA, UK, Japan and China.  commodities for inflation calculation are the goods and services purchased by a “typical consumer”  For instance, in January 2007, the U.S. Consumer Price Index was 202.4, and in January 2008 it was 211  (211.08-202.41)/202.41*100 = 4.28%
  • 14. Index prices are expressed in relation to the base year price  Modifying the weights assigned to the goods  New products may be introduced, older products disappear but both the sorts of goods are included in the "basket“  Inflation numbers are often seasonally adjusted  May focus only on certain kinds of prices, or special indices
  • 15. Pre-full employment stage Full employment stage Post-full employment stage
  • 16.  Adjusting the financial statements as per the changes in the purchasing power of money.  Two ways of restatement/adjustment  Accounting for Current purchasing power of rupee  Current cost accounting
  • 17.  Wholesale price index of RBI is used  Distinction between Monetary and Non-Monetary items  Only Non-Monetary items need to be restated  Ex : Investments were made at a cost of Rs 6L in July 2005 and price index was 300. On 31st Mar 2011 price index is 320 and market value of investment is 6,10,000/-  Loss = Cost – Market value 6L*320 = 6.4L 6.1L 300  Loss= 30,000/-
  • 18.  Takes into account the price changes relevant to the particular firm/Industry and not economy as a whole  Important features  Fixed assets are shown at their current value  Stocks are shown at the value of their business  Depreciation is calculated on current values  Difference between current values and depreciated costs of FA is transferred to revaluation reserve a/c
  • 19.  Depreciation adjustment Particulars Historical Cost Current Cost Accounting Accounting Value of the asset 50,000 1,00,000 Current depreciation 5,000 10,000 Accumulated dep (Op bal) 15,000 30,000 Total accumulated dep 20,000 40,000 Balance sheet value (WDV) 30,000 60,000  Backlog depreciation = 1,00,000-60,000-(15,000+10,000) = 15,000 Should be charged to revaluation reserve
  • 20. Effects on production Distributional effects Other effects Misallocation of Debtors and resources Government creditors Reduction in Business Balance of saving community payments Hinders foreign Fixed Income capital groups Exchange rate Investors Social Farmers
  • 21.  Business Growth  Plunging Debt Values  Stock Values Increases  Asset Values Increases
  • 22. International competitiveness  Confusion and Uncertainty  Shoe leather costs  Income redistribution  Boom and Bust Economic Cycles  Cost of Reducing Inflation  Fiscal Drag
  • 23. People spend more and GDP increases  “The Slippery Slope”  Too much of GDP growth is dangerous as it leads to increase in inflation  If GDP was calculated to be 6% higher than the previous year, but inflation was measured 2% then the GDP rate to be reported is 4%  GDP figures are reported after adjusting for inflation.
  • 24. Relationship between inflation and interest rates for a particular currency decide whether or not that currency is growing stronger or weaker Buying power Increase the Increase in money Prices will of money is bank interest supply increase eroded rates
  • 25. Zimbabwe’s inflation was 1,00,000% in 2008 and was recorded as highest in the world !!! 1USD = 25 million Zimbabwean dollar  Issued a 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar note  Excess Supply of Money which is not supported by growth of Output of Goods and Services
  • 26. It is neither high nor steady  Despite high inflation and colossal corruption patterns - India overcame the reparation done by global recession with little slower growth rate  The latest data of the government food price index shows they jumped almost 17% last financial year  Inflation, interest rates, fiscal deficit, current account deficit and depreciation of local currency could be the reason for slowing down the economic growth
  • 27. Inflation Rate 14 12 12 10.9 10 8.4 8.5 7.65 8 5.8 6.4 6 3.8 3.8 4.2 4 Inflation Rate 2 0
  • 28. Combined Consumer Price Inflation stood at an annual 7.65%  This was the first time Consumer Price Inflation Data released by CSO  Government had been relying on WPI data which economists say, does not capture the inflation situation fully  Globally, Central Banks and Policy Makers rely on CPI Data
  • 29. Oils, milk and milk products, Fruits, Clothing, fuel continued to remain stubborn.  Vegetables Prices declined an annual 24.87%  Economists said its difficult to draw any conclusion from the CPI data – lacks history  RBI has raised interest rates 13 times since march 2010 to tame price pressures  CPI data showed that inflation continues to remain firm
  • 30. Monetary Fiscal Measures Other Measures Policies • Reduction in • Increase in • Issue of New Public Expenditure Production Currency • Increase in Taxes • Proper commercial • Cash Reserve Ratio • Increase in policy • Bank Rate of Imports • Encouragement to Interest • Decrease in saving Exports
  • 31. You now know that inflation isn't basically good or bad.  When inflation goes up, there is a decline in the purchasing power of money.  Variations on inflation include deflation and stagflation.  Two theories as to the cause of inflation are demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.  Lack of inflation is not necessarily a good thing.  Inflation is a serious problem for fixed income investors.