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Control vs. Culture: The New Technology Operating Environment

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Control vs. Culture: The New Technology Operating Environment

  1. 1. NYK London Josh Klein, October 2018
  2. 2. The only control you have is and the values you cultivate over the culture you sustain
  3. 3. Technologies are getting more potent, more quickly, be it Genomics, 3-D Printing, IoT, Drones, AI, Self-Driving Cars, or the combination of all of the above!
  4. 4. Technologies are getting more potent, more quickly, be it Genomics, 3-D Printing, IoT, Drones, AI, Self-Driving Cars, or the combination of all of the above!
  5. 5. CRISPR-9
  6. 6. Gene Drives
  7. 7. Food (all of it) Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International Author: Love Food Hate Waste NZ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:OgreBot/Uploads_by _new_users/2015_July_13_21:00
  8. 8. Technologies are getting more potent, more quickly, be it Genomics, 3-D Printing, IoT, Drones, AI, Self-Driving Cars, or the combination of all of the above!
  9. 9. Guns
  10. 10. Houses Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International Author: 3DPrinthuset (Denmark) https://3dprinthuset.dk/europes-first-3d-printed-building/
  11. 11. Organs License: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported Author: Steven Fruitsmaak https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ligamentum_capitis_fe moris.jpg
  12. 12. Technologies are getting more potent, more quickly, be it Genomics, 3-D Printing, IoT, Drones, AI, Self-Driving Cars, or the combination of all of the above!
  13. 13. Alexa
  14. 14. Intimate Appliances License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0) Author: Cory Doctorow https://boingboing.net/2017/11/10/back-orifice-2.html
  15. 15. RFID
  16. 16. Technologies are getting more potent, more quickly, be it Genomics, 3-D Printing, IoT, AI, Self-Driving Cars, or the combination of all of the above!
  17. 17. Recidivism
  18. 18. Facial monitoring
  19. 19. Technologies are getting more potent, more quickly, be it Genomics, 3-D Printing, IoT, AI, Self-Driving Cars, or the combination of all of the above!
  20. 20. Unemployment 2.86% of US workers currently employed as drivers. > 4 million U.S. jobs likely lost to autonomous vehicles. U.S. drivers could see job losses at a rate of 25,000 / month* * Goldman Sachs Research
  21. 21. Less Fatalities Driverless cars could, by midcentury, reduce traffic fatalities by up to 90%.* In the US, 300,000 fatalities could be prevented over the course of a decade. That's on par with modern vaccines, which save 42,000 lives for each U.S. birth cohort** * McKinsey & Company ** Centers for Disease Control
  22. 22. Technologies are getting more potent, more quickly, be it Genomics, 3-D Printing, IoT, AI, Self-Driving Cars, or all of the above!
  23. 23. NLP + A/B Testing + Social Media
  24. 24. Slaughterbots trailer
  25. 25. Culture is moving in lockstep with this evolution. The USA is "making Canada great again." The EU is formalizing privacy - and so is China. Meanwhile, smaller countries are selling citizenship and virtually monetizing electricity.
  26. 26. Culture is moving in lockstep with this evolution. The USA is experiencing a media inversion. The EU is formalizing privacy - and so is China. Meanwhile, smaller countries are selling citizenship and virtually monetizing electricity.
  27. 27. #MeToo 45% of USA Twitter users had a friend post using the term Numerous high-profile leaders fired Industries from finance to entertainment affected A MeToo congressional bill Echoing groundswell in countries worldwide License: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 Intn’l Author: Wolfmann https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/MeToo_h ashtag_digital_text_on_RGB_screen_2017-12-09_version_11.jpg
  28. 28. NRA Recent polls show 7 in 10 Americans want stricter gun laws Everytown for Gun Safety enrolled to more members than the NRA in two weeks (25% growth) Walmart voluntarily ended sales of guns to anyone under the age of 21
  29. 29. United Airlines Instead of a ~$1,200 annual bonus, employees entered an (up to) $100,000 lottery The new system would have cut employee bonuses overall by tens of millions of dollars annually Employees leaked internal memos, posted on every social media, and solicited intense media attention
  30. 30. Culture is moving in lockstep with this evolution. The USA is experiencing a media inversion. The EU is formalizing privacy - and so is China. Meanwhile, smaller countries are selling citizenship and virtually monetizing electricity.
  31. 31. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Failure to comply with GDPR will cost 4% of global annual turnover or €20 million, whichever is greater. Under GDPR, companies are required to report a breach within 72 hours of its discovery. 97% of companies didn’t have a plan in place for when GDPR kicked off.
  32. 32. Culture is moving in lockstep with this evolution. The USA is experiencing a media inversion. The EU is formalizing privacy - and so is China. Meanwhile, smaller countries are selling citizenship and virtually monetizing electricity.
  33. 33. Sesame Credit License: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported Author: Friman https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/Presid io-modelo2.JPG
  34. 34. facial recognition glasses
  35. 35. Culture is moving in lockstep with this evolution. The USA is experiencing a media inversion. The EU is formalizing privacy - and so is China. Meanwhile, smaller countries are selling citizenship. and virtually monetizing electricity.
  36. 36. Citizenship as a service
  37. 37. I.e., Technology - and the intelligence it engenders - isn’t amoral. It’s especially moral. And yet...
  38. 38. I.e., Technology - and the intelligence it engenders - isn’t amoral. It’s especially moral. And yet...
  39. 39. I.e., Technology - and the intelligence it engenders - isn’t amoral. It’s especially moral. And yet...
  40. 40. The public corporation is vanishing as new models disintermediate businesses and individuals alike.
  41. 41. Dual-class voting rights (and similar arrangements) increasingly common 55% drop in corporations listed on U.S. stock markets between 1997 and 2012. Less IPOs from 2009 to 2014 than in 1996 alone.
  42. 42. The public corporation is vanishing as technology disintermediates businesses and individuals alike.
  43. 43. “Corporation” vs “Nexus-of-Contracts” "Webification" Made the make-or-buy decision subject to continuous revision as prices became readily available. From Prof. Gerald F. Davis, U. Michigan, “Uberization and the Web Page Enterprise”
  44. 44. “Corporation” vs “Nexus-of-Contracts” "Webification" Made the make-or-buy decision subject to continuous revision as prices became readily available. “Nikefication” Enabled organizations to deploy Design in Oregon, Production in China, and Distribution anywhere else.
  45. 45. “Corporation” vs “Nexus-of-Contracts” "Webification" Made the make-or-buy decision subject to continuous revision as prices became readily available. “Nikefication” Enabled organizations to deploy Design in Oregon, Production in China, and Distribution anywhere else. "Uberization" A nexus-of-contracts shifting from owned assets or resources to purely on-demand, digital sourcing.
  46. 46. The public corporation is vanishing as technology disintermediates businesses and individuals.
  47. 47. “Employee” vs “Freelancer” "Career" Investing in organizational knowledge led to tenure and better pay, versus domain expertise.
  48. 48. “Employee” vs “Freelancer” "Career" Investing in organizational knowledge led to tenure and better pay, versus domain expertise. “Job” Work becomes commodified, meaning price trumps loyalty
  49. 49. “Employee” vs “Freelancer” "Career" Investing in organizational knowledge led to tenure and better pay, versus domain expertise. “Job” Work becomes commodified, meaning price trumps loyalty "Task" Work becomes increasingly unary, enabling growing automation
  50. 50. This means that in-demand talent is more expensive than ever... and less loyal. But if they don't leave it's worse. Meanwhile, the startups they flee to are your greatest threat, and markets you can't play in are booming.
  51. 51. Startups without revenue are fetching prices that amount to $5m-10m per AI expert.
  52. 52. The cost to replace a highly- trained employee can exceed 200% of their annual salary.
  53. 53. This means that in-demand talent is more expensive than ever... and less loyal. But if they don't leave it's worse. Meanwhile, the startups they flee to are your greatest threat, and markets you can't play in are booming.
  54. 54. 44% of employees say they would consider taking a job with a different company for a raise of 20% or less.
  55. 55. Recent research by Dice indicates that 65% of employees are confident they can find a better position that pays more.
  56. 56. A Deloitte poll of more than 10,000 millennials across 36 countries found 43% planned to leave their jobs within two years, while only 28% plan to stay beyond five.
  57. 57. A recent Gallup poll showed that 93% of young professionals say they left their employer the last time they changed roles.
  58. 58. Note that it’s not just AI Experts that are in-demand… … increasingly it’s employees who have unusual combinations of expertise. Is that you?
  59. 59. This means that in-demand talent is more expensive than ever... and less loyal. But if they don't leave it's worse. Meanwhile, the startups they flee to are your greatest threat, and markets you can't play in are booming.
  60. 60. License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic Author: Baer Tierkel https://www.flickr.com/photos/sweetmojo/2349268098/si zes/l/ Goldman Sachs on a Hepatitis C treatment with cure rate of > 90%: "Is curing patients a sustainable business model?" "In the case of infectious diseases such as hepatitis C, curing existing patients also decreases the number of carriers able to transmit the virus to new patients, thus the incident pool also declines …" - "The Genome Revolution," April 10 report by Goldman Sachs
  61. 61. This means that in-demand talent is more expensive than ever... and less loyal. But if they don't leave it's worse. Meanwhile, the startups they flee to are your greatest threat, and markets you can't play in are booming.
  62. 62. ● Global VC investment reached $46.5B across 2,884 deals ● Series A funding rounds have grown substantially: 39% were $25 million or larger ● 40+ VC-backed unicorns (> billion-dollar valuations) in 2017 According to Pitchbook.com
  63. 63. Pricewaterhouse Coopers and CB Insights' Q1 2018 MoneyTree report
  64. 64. This means that in-demand talent is more expensive than ever... and less loyal. But if they don't leave it's worse. Meanwhile, the startups they flee to are your greatest threat, and markets you can't play in are booming.
  65. 65. The Black Market is worth almost $10 trillion, represents $1 of every $7 transacted in the USA, and will be the primary market for 2/3rds of the planet by 2020.
  66. 66. The Black Market is worth almost $10 trillion, represents $1 of every $7 transacted in the USA, and will be the primary market for 2/3rds of the planet by 2020.
  67. 67. The Black Market is worth almost $10 trillion, represents $1 of every $7 transacted in the USA, and will be the primary market for 2/3rds of the planet by 2020.
  68. 68. The Black Market is worth almost $10 trillion, represents $1 of every $7 transacted in the USA, and will be the primary market for 2/3rds of the planet by 2020.
  69. 69. Let’s summarize.
  70. 70. Technologies are getting more potent more quickly, and culture is moving in lockstep. Technology is disintermediating businesses while empowering employers and consumers alike.
  71. 71. Technologies are getting more potent more quickly, and culture is moving in lockstep. Technology is disintermediating businesses while empowering employers and consumers alike.
  72. 72. Technologies are getting more potent more quickly, and culture is moving in lockstep. Technology is disintermediating businesses while empowering employers and consumers alike.
  73. 73. Technologies are getting more potent more quickly, and culture is moving in lockstep. Technology is disintermediating businesses while empowering employers and consumers alike.
  74. 74. Technologies are getting more potent more quickly, and culture is moving in lockstep. Technology is disintermediating businesses while empowering employers and consumers alike.
  75. 75. i.e.,
  76. 76. The only control you have is
  77. 77. The only control you have is over the culture you sustain
  78. 78. The only control you have is and the values you cultivate over the culture you sustain
  79. 79. This is a radically different operating environment. What will you change to excel within it?
  80. 80. This is a radically different operating environment. What will you change to excel within it?
  81. 81. Let’s talk. Josh Klein / www.josh.is / josh@josh.is

Hinweis der Redaktion

  • Good news: there's lots of things you can do to adapt.
  • Good news: there's lots of things you can do to adapt.
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • We’re underestimating the impact.
  • All tech is global.
  • Unintended consequences?
  • Are we legislating faster that we can understand the implications?
  • Everyone knows 3-D printing and it seems benign.
  • Guns: not benign
  • What’s the impact on the housing market when you can print them cheaply and fast?
  • Aging and replacement parts, designer babies, even artificial wombs = what will our children grapple with?
  • Hugely underestimated because DATA.
  • Sensors don't have to get smarter: it's software that'll improve (at scale).
  • IoT security is a dumpster fire.
  • Data can be infinitely (and eternally) compared to past data stores.
  • Everyone is scared of it.
  • Data has bias.
  • Analytics without transparency = exacerbated damage.
  • Happening now.
  • Huge downsides.
  • Huge upsides: We need to manage, not categorize.
  • It's within combinatorial effects that surprises happen!
  • All old tech, deployed at scale. No magic!
  • 5 minutes away from being real - and ubiquitous.
  • This is where things get interesting.
  • Flip from who usually sets (and controls) the dialogue.
  • Old issue, suddenly involving everyone, w/ real consequences!
  • Lobbying since 1975, overtaken in 2 weeks. New communication mediums are POWERFUL and REAL.
  • Employees can do this too!
  • Countries are making big value judgements on tech.
  • Either it'll change the world, or prove EU Politics are ignorable.
  • Will change the world. We already know it’s not ignorable.
  • Once China has this, anyone else can have this.
  • Panopticon extends into the real world: one man already convicted.
  • Smaller countries being even MORE innovative.
  • Corporate inversion toolkit
  • Smaller countries being even MORE innovative.
  • Smaller countries being even MORE innovative.
  • Smaller countries being even MORE innovative.
  • What's all this doing to business?
  • Less public corps, more "unusual" corporate structures.
  • Tech is breaking down the underpinnings of corporate design.
  • Webification started us off. Ex: Amazon.
  • Splitting the supply chain to optimize for competencies + pricing.
  • Best suited for software to manage autonomously (esp. via blockchain!) Ex: robo-traders.
  • Same framework applies here!
  • Institutional knowledge was valuable.
  • Commodification of labor made us all interchangeable.
  • The Gig Economy has optimized work for machine replacement.
  • TERRIBLE for 99% of labor. AWESOME for the 1% you want to hire.
  • AI expertise worth buying companies for at insane rates (aqua-hire).
  • Super expensive to sink costs into training.
  • Corporations are just as interchangeable as individuals.
  • Bar for talent to jump ship extremely low.
  • Most talent thinks it can find better paid positions if they want to.
  • Easier to maximize personal growth by jumping ship.
  • Easier to maximize personal growth by jumping ship.
  • TERRIBLE for 99% of labor. AWESOME for the 1% you want to hire.
  • If they stay because of your values, when they don't leave it's worse.
  • Explain how this makes sense to your grandma.
  • Explain how this makes sense to your grandma.
  • https://www.statista.com/chart/4994/most-cyber-attacks-are-an-inside-job/
  • Startups are still your biggest threat.
  • More money, more startups, bigger exits... and the tech they ride on is exploding.
  • Biggest innovation is happening in places you may know nothing about.
  • Startups can take risks and play in markets you cannot.
  • Black market isn't just heroin and organ sales - also babysitting and taxi tips.
  • 2nd biggest market in the world.
  • Shadow economy to every "official" economy.
  • Most of the world coming online will be using this market, first.
  • Have further questions? Contact me at josh@josh.is !
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • Have further questions? Contact me at josh@josh.is !
  • Good news: there's lots of things you can do to adapt.
  • Good news: there's lots of things you can do to adapt.
  • Good news: there's lots of things you can do to adapt.
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • Tech is hitting exponential growth in a perceivable way.
  • Have further questions? Contact me at josh@josh.is !

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