Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Review of the Markets - 1st Quarter 2013
1. Quarterly Market Review
Barry Mendelson, CFP®
President & Financial Advisor
1399 Y i V ll Rd S it 24 b @ l ti
y
First Quarter 2013
1399 Ygnacio Valley Rd, Suite 24 barry@elevationwm.com
Walnut Creek, CA 94598 925-348-5852
www.elevationwm.com
2. Disclosures
Opinions expressed are those of Barry Mendelson, CFP® and Elevation
Wealth Management.
This presentation should not be construed as investment advice.
The information contained in this presentation is compiled from sourcesp p
believed to be reliable.
Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results.
The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
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3. About
Barry Mendelson, CFP®
Local investment and personal finance professional. More than 18 years experienceLocal investment and personal finance professional. More than 18 years experience
working for leading financial services companies including Charles Schwab, AXA
Rosenberg, Neuberger Berman, and Franklin Templeton. Prior to forming Elevation
Wealth Management in 2011, was a Vice President in Charles Schwab & Co’s $250
billi i t t t di i i C tifi d Fi i l Pl ™ tifi tbillion investment management division. Certified Financial Planner™ certificate
holder since 2008. Board of Directors Financial Planning Association of the East Bay,
Cancer Support Community of the Bay Area, and Chairs 4 Charity. B.A. in Business
Economics & Accounting from U.C. Santa Barbara in 1995.co o cs & ccou t g o U C Sa ta a ba a 995
Elevation Wealth Management
El ti W lth M t i S F i B A b d R i t dElevation Wealth Management is a San Francisco Bay Area based Registered
Investment Advisor that provides investment management and financial planning
services to discerning individuals, families, and companies across the United States.
As an independent and privately held firm – Elevation specializes in helpingp p y p p g
investors grow, manage, and protect their wealth. As a Fiduciary and fee-only –
Elevation places the interests of clients above all else.
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4. Timeline of Events: Quarter in ReviewTimeline of Events: Quarter in Review
First Quarter 2013
Data show US retail sales
increased 1.1% in February,
the largest rise since
Fiscal cliff –
US House of
Representatives
d t US S t ’
Euro zone’s
FOMC minutes signal debate on
scaling back US central bank’s
bond buying program.
US Federal Reserve
Haruhiko Kuroda
named governor of
Bank of Japan.
September 2012.
Data show US
GDP rose 0.4%
in Q4 2012,
revised from
prior estimate of
0 1% dadopts US Senate’s
budget bill.
recession deepens
as exports from
leading economies
suffer and Q4 GDP
falls 0.6%.
Dow Jones closes at record
high of 14,253, topping record
set in October 2007.
announces it will
continue purchasing
$40 billion of
mortgage-backed
securities and $45
billion of Treasury
p
Cyprus reaches
€10B rescue
deal with IMF,
EU and ECB
0.1% decrease.
World Bank cuts
2013 forecast for
global growth from
3% to 2.4%.
y
securities each month.
Italy’s election
ends in
deadlocked
parliament.
EU, and ECB.
12/31/2012 03/29/201312/31/2012 03/29/2013
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The graph illustrates the MSCI All Country World Index (net div.) daily returns over the quarter. Source: MSCI data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. The events highlighted are not intended to explain market
movements. The index is not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
5. Quarterly Numbers-in-Review
U.S. and International Market Indexes
January 1, 2013 through March 31, 2013
GlobalEmergingInt’l SmallInt’l ValueU.S. REITU.S.U.S.U.S. U.S. Gov/
1-5 Year
Bonds
+0.2%
Markets
Stocks
-1.6%
Stocks
+7.2%
Stocks
+3.1%
Stocks
+7.0%
Small Cap
Stocks
+12.4%
Value
Stocks
+12.3%
Large Cap
Stocks
+10.6%
Credit 1-3
Year Bonds
+0.2%
BONDSU.S. STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS
ONE
Year 14.0% 18.8% 16.3% 13.2% 10.4% 10.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2%
FIVE
5 8% 4 9% 8 2% 6 1% 1 2% 2 0% 1 1% 2 7% 2 4%
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013 Market segment (Index representation) as follows: U S Market (Russell 3000 Index); U S Small Company Stocks (Russell 2000 Index) U S
Annualized for 5 and 10 Year Periods
Years 5.8% 4.9% 8.2% 6.1% -1.2% 2.0% 1.1% 2.7% 2.4%
TEN
Years 8.5% 9.2% 11.5% 12.1% 10.3% 13.1% 17.0% 3.3% 3.0%
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Market segment (Index representation) as follows: U.S. Market (Russell 3000 Index); U.S. Small Company Stocks (Russell 2000 Index), U.S.
Value Stocks (Russell 1000 Value Index). U.S. Real Estate Market (Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index), International Developed (MSCI EAFE Index (net div.)), Emerging
Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div)), Global Bonds (Citi WGBI 1-5 Yr Hdg USD), US Bonds (BofA ML Corp & Govt 1-3 Yr TR). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of
securities that are not available for direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency
changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.
6. All-Time Market Highs
S&P 500
Performance
Calendar Days
Between New High
and Market Peak
Gain Between
New High and Bull
Markets End
Best Case 2,711
132
222%
%Worst Case
Median of all
i 1954
132
417
2.3%
18%
cases since 1954
Mean of all cases
since 1954
417
644 40%
S “W ld D d t b k t t ?” M k tW t h F b 28 2013 I d d b k t f iti th t t il bl f di t i t t b
since 1954
Source: “Would new Dow record set a bear market trap?”, MarketWatch, Feb 28, 2013. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for direct investment by
investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All
investments involve risk, including loss of principal.
7. All Time Market HighsAll-Time Market Highs
If Investors had bought on the date of a new high on the S&P 500:
P iti t f 8 t f 9 5 h ldi i d• Positive returns for 8 out of 9 5-year holding periods
(October 2007 is the exception)
P iti t f ll 10 h ldi i d• Positive returns for all 10-year holding periods
Source: NY Times, April 5, 2013: “Even After New Highs, the Rally May Last” by James B. Stewart
Past performance does not guarantee future result.
8. Individual Country Returns
January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2012
Developed Markets (% Returns) Emerging Markets (% Returns)
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI All Country World IMI Index (for developed markets) and MSCI
Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD currency and net of withholding tax on dividends. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities that are not available for
direct investment by investors. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes,
political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.
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9. International Investing
Ranking of Markets Around the World — Ten-Year Performance in US Dollars
Annualized Returns Year Ending December 31, 2012
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Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Countries represented by their respective MSCI IMI(net div.). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot
directly invest; they do not reflect the payment of advisory fees or other expenses associated with specific investments or the management of an actual portfolio. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign
currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.
10. The Need for Diversification
A t Cl I d P f 1997 2011
Highest
Return
Asset Class Index Performance 1997-2011
Lowest
ReturnReturn
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Data Sources: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), BARRA Inc. and Morgan Stanley Capital International, March 2012. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes,
political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Treasury bills are guaranteed as to repayment of principal and interest by the U.S. government.
This information does not constitute a solicitation for sale of any securities. CRSP ranks all NYSE companies by market capitalization and divides them into 10 equally-populated portfolios. AMEX and NASDAQ National Market stocks are then
placed into deciles according to their respective capitalizations, determined by the NYSE breakpoints. CRSP Portfolios 1-5 represent large-cap stocks; Portfolios 6-10 represent small caps; Value is represented by companies with a book-to-
market ratio in the top 30% of all companies Growth is represented by companies with a book-to-market ratio in the bottom 30% of all companies S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index The S&P 500 Index measures themarket ratio in the top 30% of all companies. Growth is represented by companies with a book to market ratio in the bottom 30% of all companies. S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor s 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index measures the
performance of large-capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the index
performance directly proportional to that company’s market value. The MSCI EAFE Index (Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia, Far East Index) is comprised of over 1,000 companies representing the stock markets of
Europe, Australia, New Zealand and the Far East, and is an unmanaged index. EAFE represents non-U.S. large stocks. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes and different
methods of accounting and financial reporting. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation. REITs, represented by the NAREIT Equity REIT Index, is an unmanaged market cap-weighted index comprised of 151 equity REITS.
Emerging Markets index represents securities in countries with developing economies and provide potentially high returns. Many Latin American, Eastern European and Asian countries are considered emerging markets. Indexes are
unmanaged baskets of securities without the fees and expenses associated with mutual funds and other investments. Investors cannot directly invest in an index.
11. Elevation’s Investment Philosophy
Invest For The Long TermInvest For The Long-Term
The Cycle of Market Emotions. Bad investments often lead to bad (investing)
behavior.
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17. Contact info
More articles at:
http://elevationwm.com/articlesblog/
Barry Mendelson, CFP®
President & Financial Advisor
925-348-5852
1399 Ygnacio Valley Rd, Suite 24
barry@elevationwm com Walnut Creek CA 94598barry@elevationwm.com Walnut Creek, CA 94598
www.elevationwm.com
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