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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN SADC:
  A STRATEGY FOR THE WATER SECTOR
             2nd workshop on adaptation to climate change in
                          transboundary basins
                              12-13 April, 2011
                            Geneva, Switzerland


Bertrand Meinier, PhD                              Kenneth M. Msibi, PhD
 GIZ, TWM in SADC                                    SADC Secretariat
 Gaborone, Botswana                                 Gaborone, Botswana
Outline

 Background

 Process

 Strategy

 Lessons learnt
Water in SADC:
Transboundary
Trends: variability
 Climate will become hotter (3° C) and drier (10%)

 Precipitation patterns are changing (volume, intensity,
 frequency, distribution)

 Water resources are changing (quality and availability)

 Frequency and intensity of floods and droughts is changing



                                         Uncertainty
Certainty # 1 : Variability has an impact

   Rainfall variability and Real GDP growth in Zimbabwe during 1970-93
Certainty #2: Investments have an impact




                         GDP in SA (2005 prices)
Adaption in SADC: Process

            Donors               Directors                Donors                Directors
                      Experts                                       Experts


Ministers                                    SADC Water                                     Ministers
                                               Division




                     Consulta-               Concept-
Inception                                                          Validation               Approval
                       tion                  ualisation



  2008                                                                                        2011
                                                                                              COP 17
SADC Strategy: No regrets
           LEVELS OF
      INTERVENTIONS
                              SADC Adaptation Cube




                Governance

     AREAS OF   Management
INTERVENTIONS
                Development




          STAGES OF
         ADAPTATION
Interventions: Water Governance (on going)

                               Benefit-sharing
                               Promote equitable and reasonable utilisation




                              Indigenous knowledge
                              Account for TEK




                              Political mobilization
                              Develop a joint position on CCA in the region




19.04.2011
Interventions: Infrastructure Development (on going)

                               Vulnerability assessment
                               Develop evidence based scenarios




                               Dam synchronisation
                               Develop new dam operation rules




                               Project preparation
                               Develop sustainable and bankable projects




19.04.2011
Interventions: Water Management (on going)

                              Water demand management
                              Advocate pro-poor WDM practices




                              Insurance mechanisms



                              Early warning system
                              Establish flow forecasting centres




19.04.2011
Challenges
• Heterogeneity


• Consensus


• Cross cutting


• Indigenous knowledge
Opportunities
                Cooperation between
                sectors

                Sustainable
                infrastructure
                development
Thank you!


         “It is better to be approximately
               right than precisely wrong”

                   John Maynard Keynes

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Climate change adaptation in SADC: a strategy for the Water Sector

  • 1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN SADC: A STRATEGY FOR THE WATER SECTOR 2nd workshop on adaptation to climate change in transboundary basins 12-13 April, 2011 Geneva, Switzerland Bertrand Meinier, PhD Kenneth M. Msibi, PhD GIZ, TWM in SADC SADC Secretariat Gaborone, Botswana Gaborone, Botswana
  • 2. Outline Background Process Strategy Lessons learnt
  • 4. Trends: variability Climate will become hotter (3° C) and drier (10%) Precipitation patterns are changing (volume, intensity, frequency, distribution) Water resources are changing (quality and availability) Frequency and intensity of floods and droughts is changing Uncertainty
  • 5. Certainty # 1 : Variability has an impact Rainfall variability and Real GDP growth in Zimbabwe during 1970-93
  • 6. Certainty #2: Investments have an impact GDP in SA (2005 prices)
  • 7. Adaption in SADC: Process Donors Directors Donors Directors Experts Experts Ministers SADC Water Ministers Division Consulta- Concept- Inception Validation Approval tion ualisation 2008 2011 COP 17
  • 8. SADC Strategy: No regrets LEVELS OF INTERVENTIONS SADC Adaptation Cube Governance AREAS OF Management INTERVENTIONS Development STAGES OF ADAPTATION
  • 9. Interventions: Water Governance (on going) Benefit-sharing Promote equitable and reasonable utilisation Indigenous knowledge Account for TEK Political mobilization Develop a joint position on CCA in the region 19.04.2011
  • 10. Interventions: Infrastructure Development (on going) Vulnerability assessment Develop evidence based scenarios Dam synchronisation Develop new dam operation rules Project preparation Develop sustainable and bankable projects 19.04.2011
  • 11. Interventions: Water Management (on going) Water demand management Advocate pro-poor WDM practices Insurance mechanisms Early warning system Establish flow forecasting centres 19.04.2011
  • 12. Challenges • Heterogeneity • Consensus • Cross cutting • Indigenous knowledge
  • 13. Opportunities Cooperation between sectors Sustainable infrastructure development
  • 14. Thank you! “It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong” John Maynard Keynes