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Public Affairs - Monthly Newsletter | April 2018

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In the "Gov Affairs in Focus" column, the main topic is the information access and the government relations professional analysis. Does simple access guarantee the effective use of strategic information? Also on information, we highlight the dichotomy access/data leakage.

We do not, of course, avoid discussing the main themes in the political arena, and in this month's edition you will find another profile in the series "Presidential Candidates", this time Geraldo Alckmin. Subsequently, the implications former president Lula imprisonment to the Workers Party campaign, and the impasses and nuances of the distribution of power, or presidencies, in the thematic committees of the House of Representatives.

Finally, the international analysis discusses the China-US economic rivalry and then the importance of investing in the internationalization of companies and establishing global players.

In addition, we wish a good reading!

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Public Affairs - Monthly Newsletter | April 2018

  1. 1. Monthly Newsletter Burson-Marsteller April Public Affairs 2018
  2. 2. 02 Gov Affairs in focus | Intelligence of Information: The Role of Government Relations Professional 03 Politics | Presidential candidates: internal disputes may weaken Alckmin 04 Politics | Lula's arrest: how the denial of habeas corpus in the STF affects PT's political strategy and makes the electoral scenario even more obscure 05 Politics | House of Representatives in evidence: thematic committees in function of the party window 08 Politics | Access to information X data leakage 09 International Relations | Trade war between the United States and China: what is the impact on Latin America? 10 International Relations | Going global? The importance of internationalizing 11 Economic Data 12 Events Calendar Burson-Marsteller l Public Affairs An intersecting agency that, through the understanding of the political environment, assists clients of different sectors in the protection and/or promotion of their businesses, managing their influence in a sustainable way. The Burson-Marsteller standard is responsible for the development of highly customized projects, according to the needs of each client, developing strategies for various economic sectors, especially those heavily regulated by the government. Contributors to this edition Allana Rodrigues Isabela Girotto Luciana Lemgruber Fernanda Xavier Nara Andrade Isabela Macêdo Index Year 2 | Nº 04 | April Anna Paula Losi Bruno Traversin
  3. 3. Access to information is increasingly broad and dynamic, both by the plurality of means of dissemination and by the facilitation of access. This phenomenon is even more evident when we work with government information. For some time now, the websites of the House of Representatives and the Federal Senate have provided all the necessary information to follow up on the discussions on the ongoing of bills, public hearings are transmitted live, not only by the TVs and Radios of the legislative houses, but also by means of websites and social networks. The Executive Branch is not yet as efficient in publicizing its information, but, nonetheless, the normative acts that govern our legal system are available electronically, and it is also possible to monitor agendas and other information through the main channels: sites, facebook and twitter. Because of the ease of access to information, the following question arises: How can the government relations professional excel in the use of information that is available to anyone who wants to access it? First of all, it is important to emphasize that availability is not linked to easy understanding, and that, even if it is understandable, access is often restricted to the outcome of the process, making it impossible to identify the method itself and how it got to the final point. The government relations professional must be able to access the information, but mainly analyze this information and identify the opportunities and risks for the sector in which it operates and, in doing so, propose actions and solutions that can build public policies more suitable for the reality of the country. However, it is also essential that the government relations professional be able to monitor and filter what is a priority, because too much information can paralyze him or make him waste time on what is not really important. And for this, you can use various means such as spreadsheets, systems, pushs, and each person has to find the one that best suits their personal and professional reality. In the information age it is not enough to have the information, it is necessary to know how to systematize, prioritize and act from the universe of available data. This way, it is possibçe to follow the best strategic path in search of the construction of effective and efficient public policies that positively impact not only the sector defended, but also society as a whole. Anna Paula Losi Government Affairs in focus Intelligence of Information: The Role of Government Relations Professional 02
  4. 4. On March 20, the Brazilian Social Democrat Party (PSDB) made official the pre-candidacy of the former governor of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, to the Presidency of the Republic. Despite being the only name in the party's primaries, Alckmin still faces resistance from some of his fellow party members and may have challenges to keep his name as the party's official candidate until August 15, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) deadline for nominations. Alckmin has in his favor the fact he is an experienced manager, having begun his political career at the age of 19, as a city councilman of Pindamonhangaba, in the interior of São Paulo, the same city of which he was mayor in 1977. He took over the city hall while still attending the last year of medicine at the Faculty of Taubaté. In the 80s, he was one of the dissidents from the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) who founded the PSDB and has since been among the party's most influential names. In addition, this is not the first presidential race for the former governor, who disputed the position in 2006 against the then president, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party (PT). At that time, the PSDB already faced internal divisions, when the party was divided bewtween supporting Alckmin's candidacy or that of Senator José Serra. Serra gave up the bid and Alckmin competed, losing in the second round with 39.17% of the valid votes, against 60.83% of Lula’s. In 2018, both opponents still figure in the electoral landscape. However, the possibility of a second-round dispute between Lula and Alckmin such as in 2006 is unlikely. The PT’s leader is imprisoned and will probably have his candidacy barred by the TSE and Alckmin has not had significant results in the most recent polls. Far from the polarizations, the social-democrat disputes space to consolidate himself as the central candidate in the next elections. It is likely that Alckmin will defend investments in social programs, privatizations, and tax reform that favors the poor. In terms of alliances, President Michel Temer would have already approached the former governor of São Paulo for a possible joint plaque, where former Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles could run as Alckmin's vice- president. The alliance could cause more internal problems to Alckmin, since Temer’s party, the Brazilian Democrat Movement (MDB) has named Paulo Skaf as pre-candidate for governor of São Paulo, the same post for which Alckmin's co-party member, João Dória, will also seek to win. The state election has already been conflicting for Alckmin, as his vice-governor, Márcio França (PSB) also plans to run for office against Doria. Even if Alckmin is able to reconcile state elections with his interests of running for the presidency on a plate that eliminates one of his center's competitors, the former governor will still have to compete with Marina Silva (REDE), Joaquim Barbosa (Brazilian Socialist Party) and Rodrigo Maia (Democrats). The latter has almost no expression in the polls, but is a key player to win the support of Democrats, the Progressive Party and Solidarity, which have already expressed support for Maia's candidacy. Politcs Presidential candidates: internal disputes may weaken Alckmin 03
  5. 5. The conclusion of the judgment of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), held on April 4th, further aggravated the dispute and made the scenario confusing for the 2018 elections. With the refusal to the habeas corpus requested by the defense of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and with his imprisonment executed, the leader, favorite in much of the researchs for Presidency of the Republic, ends up "losing" his position. However, your candiature is not yet ruled out. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) must decide on the continuity of Lula's candidacy in accordance with the Ficha Limpa Law, which makes condemned people in the second instance ineligible. The deadline for the TSE’s decision is September 17th. Publicly, the Workers' Party (PT) states that it does not have Plan B for the elections. The argument used by the legend is that "to launch a name other than his (Lula) would be to play the game of those who worked for the 'coup process'." However, continuing his name as a candidate even with the arrest is a way of guaranteeing votes for the name that will replace him, as a sort of strategy of transfer of votes. Out of the spotlights, the names of former Sao Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad and former governor of Bahia, Jaques Wagner, are quoted for the dispute, but none of the alternatives exceed 3% of the votes intentions in the surveys already released. According to a study conducted by the professor of political science at UFMG, Leonardo Avritizer, the convictions did not significantly reduce Lula's vote intentions and the politician's rejection fell during the last semester, during which time the case was already in the TRF-4, wich goes against the tendencies expected. USP professor, José Álvaro Moisés, points out that the PT will continue with the rhetoric that the former president is "the victim of an elite conspiracy", leaving the situation ambiguous. It is not clear yet who will recieve the candidate's votes, depending on the voter's adherence to such speech. To the academics, with regard to the legislative power, it is necessary to remember that in the 2014 elections the PT participated in a broad coalition, which ended up corroborating to the decrease of the party bench in Congress. Therefore, two issues will be central to legislative elections: how broad the coalition will be in 2018 and whether there will be a candidate who can keep voting at the level of voter identification with the PT. The latest poll released by the Datafolha Institute, which analyzes 12 possible scenarios, shows that if PT pitches Fernando Haddad or José Álvaro Moisés, the dispute will focus on the PSL candidate Jair Bolsonaro, with 17% of the votes intentions, and Marina Silva, of Rede, with 15% of intentions. The other names were little affected by the former president's arrest, candidates such as Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and Ciro Gomes (PDT) remain with intent on votes close to the previous polls. Politcs Lula's arrest: how the denial of habeas corpus in the STF affects PT's political strategy and makes the electoral scenario even more obscure 04 Faced with so many conflicting scenarios, the Alckmin will have to strive to reconcile the PSDB in São Paulo and nationally. In addition, he will need to evaluate alliances in the center to lessen the dispute with other names, which escape the main polarizations in the possible scenarios presented so far. The effort to consolidate his candidacy in the political arena may be a drag on his image as an effective manager with voters. Isabela Macêdo
  6. 6. Is possible to conclude that the 2018 election continues without many definitions, and the consequences of Lula's non-participation associated with the political strategy of the party can only be scaled in the near future. In accordance with the electoral calendar of the 2018 elections, parties and coalitions can register their candidates by August 15 and the next day, the campaign will be allowed to begin, with distribution of material and free advertisement via the Internet. Electoral propaganda on radio and television will begin on August 31. Brazil's electoral paths remain undefined, and depend directly on the decisions of three central actors: TSE, PT and the convict Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Nara Andrade e Bruno Traversin Politics 05 The month of February marked the beginning of this year's legislative work, and while the Federal Senate committees were already discussing bills, the House of Representatives was limited only to the Plenary discussions. This delay was motivated by the impasse that occurred in the distribution of committees among the parties, which, due to the “janela partidária” (party window¹, in a literally translation), mainly, preferred to wait for the final number of members of their seats. The party window provided for the exchange of parties of about 90 federal representatives, without losing their term. Data presented by the House of Representatives indicate that the Democrats (DEM) and the Progressive Party (PP) benefited the most, receiving respectively 12 and 8 new parliamentarians in their seats; other parties such as the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), however, have seen their benches decline. These numbers are not yet final, as there may still be changes that were not reported to the House. In addition to the size of the seats, the change in the number of congressmen brings, also, reflections on the number of committees to which the political blocks / parties have the right to preside. Only one committee is still without command, that of Agriculture, Livestock, Supply and Rural Development (CAPADR). Representative Dilceu Sperafico (PP/PR) had been elected president, however, recently licensed to take over the head of the Civil House of his state, Paraná. The expectation is that Representative Evair Vieira de Melo (PP/ES), also a member of the PP and current vice-president of the committee, be elected president, whose election is scheduled for May 9. Meanwhile, he already chairs the committee, in his present position. Now, with the committees up and running, parliamentarians are trying to speed up voting on proposals, as legislative work is expected to slow down soon because of the World Cup in June and the October elections. House of Representatives in evidence: thematic committees in function of the party window Politics
  7. 7. Some themes are more visible in the National Congress, such as rare diseases, which was recently discussed at a public hearing; the bill amending the Bidding Law; and especially data protection, which returned to the discussion after what happened with the social network Facebook in the United States. In the Plenary, the moods are focused on deliberation of bills like the one of regulation of the Lobby and what deals with the Positive Register; the pension reform, a subject strongly defended by Michel Temer, was left aside. Also, the clash between Rodrigo Maia's pre-candidacy to the Presidency of the Republic, and the possible electoral race of Temer helps to leave the atmosphere increasingly tense, with both looking for electoral and political support. ¹The party window was established with the aim of enabling parliamentarians to exchange party without losing their terms, because, in Brazilian legislation, terms belong to the parties, not to the individuals. Fernanda Xavier Politics 06 Presidents of the House's standing committees Committee on the Defense of the Rights of the Elderly People (CIDOSO) President: Rep. Júlia Marinho (PSC/PA) Committee on Science and Technology, Communication and Informatics(CCTCI) President: Rep. Goulart (PSD/SP) Committee on Constitution and Justice and Citizenship (CCJC) President: Rep. Daniel Vilela (MDB/GO) Committee on Culture (CCULT) President: Rep. Raquel Muniz (PSD/MG) Committee on Consumer Protection (CDC) President: Rep. José Stédile (PSB/RS) Committee on the Defense of Women's Rights (CMULHER) President: Rep. Ana Perugini (PT/SP) Committee on Agriculture, Livestock, Food Supply and Rural Development (CAPADR) VAGO Committee on the Protection of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CPD) President: Rep. Mara Gabrilli (PSDB/SP) Committee on Labor, Administration and Public Service (CTASP) President: Rep. Ronaldo Nogueira (PTB/RS) Committee on Social Security and Family (CSSF) President: Rep. Juscelino Filho (DEM/MA)
  8. 8. 07 Politics Committee on Urban Development (CDU) President: Rep. Margarida Salomão (PT/MG) Committee on Human Rights and Minorities (CDH) President: Rep. Luiz Couto (PT/PB) Committee on Education (CE) President: Rep. Danilo Cabral (PSB/PE) Committee on Economic Development, Industry, Trade and Services (CDEICS) President: Rep. Daniel Almeida (PCdoB/BA) Committee on National Integration, Regional Development and the Amazon(CINDRA) President: Rep. Marinha Raupp (MDB/RO) Committee on Mines and Energy (CME) President: Rep. Marcelo Squassoni (PRB/SP) Committee on Transport (CVT) President: Rep. Domingos Sávio (PSDB/MG) Committee on Tourism (CTUR) President: Rep. Rafael Motta (PSB/RN) Committee on Finance and Taxation (CFT) President: Rep. Renato Molling (PP/RS) Committee on Financial Control (CFFC) President: Rep. Roberto de Lucena (PODE/SP) Committee on Public Security and Combating Organized Crime (CSPCCO) President: Rep. Laerte Bessa (PR/DF) Committee on Foreign Relations and National Defense (CREDN) President: Rep. Nilson Pinto (PSDB/PA) Committee on Participative Legislation (CLP) President: Rep. Pompeo de Mattos (PDT/RS) Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development (CMADS) President: Rep. Leonardo Monteiro (PT/MG) Committee on Sports (CESPO) President: Rep. Alexandre Valle (PR/RJ)
  9. 9. With the technological advance, they also advance the culture, the resources and even, the crimes. Immersed in a scenario of changes, personal data are, at present, a great source of wealth, and can be the differential in the success of companies. Large conglomerates invest human and fiscal resources in obtaining more and more information about each person in the population, both to know their clients better and to help them in decision making. Access to information is a constituent part of our new culture and in vain would be any effort in the opposite direction. At the same time, you can not leave anyone free to get information and use them as you wish. The point is the norms and limits that such access should have. Recently, the scandal involving one of the world's largest technology companies, Facebook, has further strengthened the debate. In Brazil it was no different, the event with the American company generated a series of discussions, mainly in the legislative, bringing again to the discussion agenda, the projects that regulate access to personal data. At the same time, the Chamber of Representatives is negotiating a legislative proposal that changes the rule of the current negative register for the positive register, in which all Brazilians would automatically be included in a database. The norm consists in the generation of individual credit scores to the population by credit bureaus, based on the inclusion of credit information. With the huge spreading of data obtained by the social network, consumer protection agencies created great pressure on the rapporteur of the project that creates the Positive Register, Representative Walter Ihoshi (PSD-SP), to include tougher answers front to the possibility of misuse of information. The main intention of the positive register is, therefore, the easiest credit, mainly by the population with lower income. Why then do the debates mix up causing so much discomfort? The case of Facebook has inserted a more tactile aspect to the possibility of information leakage, being a very important point to be evaluated. If the possibility of better credit assessment of Brazilians is undoubtedly very important, on the other hand, the need to punish those who, due to the facilitation of access, leak the information, is essential too. In other words, it is necessary to find a balance point. The Positive Register Project has been in the Plenary agenda for a month, and while the government wants to vote at all costs, the opposition, helped by the pressure of the cabinet, has blocked the vote as it can, leaving the all agenda intact for the whole period. Under the argument that the new database invades the privacy of Brazilians, the registries remain with exclusive access to information of the population. With the subject in the newspapers, access to information is one of the busiest agendas today. The need for modernization meets the urgent punishment of those who misuse information. The break-even point is not easy and becomes even more difficult when leveraged against the political and business interests involved. Luciana Lemgruber Politics 08 Access to information X data leakage
  10. 10. 09 Trade war between the United States and China: what is the impact on Latin America? Since the election campaign, Donald Trump has been spreading controversial and divisive ideas. In this sense, the current president of the United States, who during the electoral period threatened to increase the tariff on all Chinese products by up to 30%, established the practice of the America First policy in order to strengthen the American industry to the detriment of imported products. From this context, in the past month, Trump, in order to combat products originating in China, at the first moment, imposed surcharges on steel and aluminum imported from several countries, affecting different markets, among them Brazil, which, according to the Brazilian Steel Institute and the World Steel Association, has the United States, as the main importer of Brazilian steel, totaling exports of R $ 8.5 billion. In this scenario, Donald Trump, seeing the impact, a priori, not aimed at other nations, still in March, temporarily freed some countries from paying the surcharge. In Latin America, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico (as a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement), for example, were removed from the list of mandatory tariff payment. Subsequently, in order to negatively impact the Chinese economy, the President of the United States announced $ 50 billion tariffs on 1,300 Chinese products, alleging infringement of intellectual property rights. As retaliation for American measures, the Chinese government released a list of 128 US products, such as soybeans, corn, orange juice, meat and chemicals, which it intends to overcharge. Given this context, economies such as Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay may benefit, because they are countries with high competitiveness in agricultural products. As for soybeans, for example, China is the largest importer in Brazil and, later, the United States. In this sense, if applied to the Chinese tariff, Brazilian soy would be a natural substitute for the North American. In addition to soybeans, Brazil would also benefit from the application of the surcharge on other products such as US ethanol and orange juice. However, it should be noted that, despite the list of disclosed products, the imposition of Chinese tariffs is still being negotiated and there is no decision on their applications as well as deadlines. The benefits to Latin America, generally a priori, seem interesting given the opening of commercial opportunities, are also questioned while, in a scenario of globalization, given the global relevance of the two economies (United States and China), the effects of a trade war can overflow to countries of varying commercial importance. Thus, effects such as rising export costs and declining international trade can be perceived. It is also stressed that retaliation by both parties could cause socioeconomic losses in the long term; go against the global trend of opening markets and will affect the legal security of the nations involved. Isabela Girotto International Relations
  11. 11. International Relations 10 Going global? The importance of internationalizing The international economic policy has gained new traits, especially after the crises of 2008 and 2011, and more recently the background of this transformation included a global wave of neopopulism marked by the Brexit and Donald Trump’s election. In addition, the processes of economic globalization, notably liberalization, the corporate diaspora and regional integration, have given way to a new dynamic of economic and commercial relations, less integrated and more protectionist. In this scenario, in addition to attracting foreign investment, to invest abroad and to internationalize became even more relevant. Internationalization is one of the alternatives for increasing competitiveness and market gain in a scenario of economic instability. Beyond the international framework, based on the more protectionist economic policy of Trump’s government and the progress of Chinese business, the Brazilian economic outlook, despite Temer's post-presidency improvement, is still not ideal. In this way, and as an example of the development of intercapitalist competition promoted by China, the performance of Brazilian companies in diverse segments and geographic regions is an effective alternative to open new markets, gain competitive advantage and consequently increase Brazilian international trade. Competitiveness gains come from a series of benefits listed by the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil): increase in brand value (going global); acquisition of new knowledge and expertise; development of new products and services; diversification of revenue sources; greater control over distribution channels and sales in the foreign market. Despite the tacit understanding that corporate internationalization is beneficial in various respects, and in spite of intra-organizational constraints, at the national level, regarding the public incentive environment, there are significant obstacles. The Brazil cost adds to the inherent difficulties of the process the high tax burden, exchange rate instability, precarious infrastructure, problems related to logistics, lack of financing lines and institutional fragility. In order to join the countries whose companies have become global players and add new links to their value chain in overseas operations, Brazil needs to address and solve problems that are already associated to the economy in various themes and sectors. It is necessary to adapt, at the domestic level, to the practices already adopted by other countries to adjust also to the needs and peculiarities imposed by the international economy. Allana Rodrigues
  12. 12. Economic Data 11 MONTH DOLAR IPCA (accumulated 12 months) SELIC IBOVESPA PROJECTION PIB 2018 JUL.2017 3,15 2,71% 9,25% 65.316,30 0,34% AUG.2017 3,14 2,46% 9,15% 70.727,08 0,39% SEP.2017 3,17 2,54% 7% 73.626 0,68% OCT.2017 3,26 3,08% 7% 73.323 0,73% NOV.2017 3,27 3,08% 7% 71.971 0,73% DEC. 2017 3,31 2,79% 6,9% 75.996,68 0,98% JAN. 2018 3,17 3,95% 6,75% 85.329,20 2,66% MAR.2018 3,33 2,68% 6,50% 82.956,10 2,89% APR.2018 3,46 * 6,25% 86.127,86 2,75% * Pending Source: Boletim Focus/Banco Central
  13. 13. Events Calendar 12 SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 ANATEL Board of Directors Meeting Local: ANATEL Headquarters Ordinary Meeting of the Board of ANVISA Local: ANVISA Headquarters CONITEC MeetingCONITEC Meeting ANATEL Board of Directors Meeting Local: ANATEL Headquarters Ordinary Meeting of the Board of ANVISA Local: ANVISA Headquarters Seoul Food and Hotel 2018 Local: Seul, South Korea SIAL Canada 2018 Local: Montreal, Canadá 2nd Seminar on Intellectual Property Local: Maksoud Plaza Hotel, São Paulo/SP 305th Ordinary Meeting of the National Health Council – CNS Local: Brasília, DF 305th Ordinary Meeting of the National Health Council – CNS Local: Brasília, DF QCon São Paulo Local: São Paulo/SP Agro Brasília Local: Brasília/DF Oncology Based on Evidence Local: Faculty of Health, UnB Entrepreneurial Capital Local: Brasília/DF Holiday - Labor Day
  14. 14. Events Calendar 13 SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 Internal Ordinary Meeting of the Board of ANVISA Local: ANVISA Headquarters Joint Seminar "Protection of Personal Data“ Local: Chamber of Deputies, Brasília / DF VII Regional Meeting on Computing and Information Systems – ENCOSIS Local: São Paulo/SP Tecnomultimídia Infocomm Local: São Paulo/SP Panel TELEBRASIL Local: São Paulo/SP Hospitalar - the future of health Local: Expo center North São Paulo 134th Regular Meeting of the Board of Directors of CNS Local: Brasília/ DF 134th Regular Meeting of the Board of Directors of CNS Local: Brasília/ DF 3rd Symposium Fertile Idea - Rare Diseases ABC Local: São Paulo/SP Meeting of the Sectorial Chamber of the Cocoa Productive Chain Local: Brasília/DF Bahia Farm Show Local: Luís Eduardo Magalhães-BA, Brasil Campus Party BSB 2018 Local: Brasília/DF Health Business Forum Local: Bahia, Brazil Holiday - Corpus Christi

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