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Towards connected planning for Supply Chain

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Far too often, Supply Chain management leaders make decisions in a data vacuum. But that doesn’t work in today’s fast-paced market. Rob Van Driel (Solutions Consultant, Anaplan) explained why & how Supply Chain leaders need to make timely, value-based decisions so you can respond quickly to shifts in demand and customer needs. Because: when value is king, margins are optimized, and profit is maximized.

Presented by Rob Van Driel, Solutions Consultant Anaplan on Supply Chain 4.0 : ready to operate in the digital era? (29 Nov, 2018)

Veröffentlicht in: Ingenieurwesen
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Towards connected planning for Supply Chain

  1. 1. Driving a new age of connected planning
  2. 2. Supply Chain 4.0 The future is already here… are you ready for it?
  3. 3. 3 Supplychainshaman.com http://www.supplychainshaman.com/new-technologies/my-take-the-role-of-anaplan-in-defining-the-art-of-the-possible-in-supply-chain-planning/ ….So when you see the next Anaplan presentation that is high-level, glitzy and full of buzzwords, don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Instead, put their capabilities to work. Fight the urge to squirm in your seat and discount the validity of the technology (their presentations are some of the worst in the industry). Instead, challenge Anaplan to help your organization get free from the cage and define the art of the possible. I think that it is worth the journey, but I would love to hear from you…..
  4. 4. Driving a new age of connected planning 2011 commercial launch 20 offices in 13 countries 75%+ FY17 subscription revenue growth (FYE January) 1000+ employees in 14 countries 900+ customers in over 40 countries Partners Best-in-class 250+ apps Patented in-memory data engine $120M FY17 total revenue momentum
  5. 5. 5 Supply Chain 4.0 Faster Source: McKinsey More flexible Granularity More accurate
  6. 6. Barriers that needs to be addressed: Organizational Silos • Lack of visibility • Sharing of Data Data • Inconsistency • Quality • Reconcile Flexibility • Dynamic changes • Varying timeframes • Different planning levels Technology • Manually intensive • Alignment tools Workflow • Different planning horizons & cycle times • In ability to quickly change pans
  7. 7. legacy vs Anaplan ERP system MES system Transportation management system Warehouse management system MRP system HCM tool Microsoft (Excel®) Financial planning system CRM tool S&OP Management reports Inventory management MPS Forecasting tool Strategic pricing tool Supply optimization tool Order fulfillment tool Single, secure source of planning and decision data Greater collaboration, deeper insights, faster alignment Dynamic, continuous planning for any area of your business Across one department or area Across the company One business process
  8. 8. Strategic Planning Demand Orchestration Supply Network Planning Financial Planning Product Portfolio Planning … achieve Connected Supply Chain Planning... and much more! Continuous Market Intelligence Continuous Optimization NPI/ EOL Planning Statistical Forecasting Merchandise & Assortment Planning Inventory Planning Executive S&OP Contribution Margin Analysis Financial Forecasting Demand Planning & Sensing Trade Promotions Consensus / Pre-S&OP Rough Cut Capacity Planning Production Planning Pricing Financial Planning, AOP, Budget, Revenue Planning Product Portfolio Planning Strategic Planning Demand Shaping Long-Range Planning
  9. 9. “Anaplan gave us speed and agility.” RK Del Rosario, Supply Chain Planning Manager ANAPLAN FOR CONNECTED PLANNING Days slashed from routine planning processes CHALLENGES • Legacy tools took up to 6 hours to run some operations • Planners used inaccurate averages, resulting in imprecise forecasts • Process failures resulted in lost sales and excess inventory RESULTS • Two-week planning process was cut to two days • A five-day revision process now takes five minutes • Channel, SKU, and customer profitability are available monthly
  10. 10. Value Maturity Connect supply chain data Connect and align supply chain network 3 steps towards connected supply chain Connect people and plans 1 2 3
  11. 11. Step 1: connect supply chain planning data and processes Transportation management system ERP system MES system CRM tool Warehouse management system Microsoft (Excel®)HCM toolMRP system Financial planning system Benefits: • Automated integration • Single Repository • Visual representation of data • Network visibility
  12. 12. Step 2: Connect people and plans across the organization Demand Signal ManagementTrade Promotions Management Demand Management Planning Dashboards Collaborative Planning Statistical Forecasting Sales Forecasting CRM Pipeline Management NPI/EOL Forecasting Financial Forecasting Marketing Forecasts Demand Shaping Demand Analyst Marketing Account Management Sales management Demand Planning Controller Rough-Cut Capacity Plan Supplier Plan Sourcing Plan Planning Dashboards Capacity Plan (Constraints) Consensus Demand Plan Capacity Plan (Resources) Allocations Plan Inventory Plan Materials Planning Master Production Schedule Procurement Plan Production Manager Supply Planner Inventory Manager Master Planner Distribution Manager Warehouse Manager Consensus Planning Executive S&OP Demand Planning Supply Planning Decision Benefits: • Complete profitability analysis • Better anticipate market changes • Real time implications supply chain decisions have on corporate strategy • Improve service levels
  13. 13. Step 3: Collaboration Across The Network Raw Material Suppliers Contracted Producers Transportation Distribution Center Warehouse Customer Channel CustomersProduction Facilities 3rd Party Logistics Channel Partners Transportation Benefits: • Visibility across all extend network events • Immediate action due to deviations extended network • ‘What if’ scenarios including suppliers and customer • Better support omni-channel
  14. 14. Connected Planning Creates Value Plan demand for tens of thousands of SKUs globally Consumer Products Manufacturer Reduced Planning Cycle Time 80% (2 weeks to 2 days) Food & Beverage Manufacturer Improved forecast accuracy by 15% Food & Beverage Manufacturer Reduced functional FTE requirement for impacted processes by 40% High Tech Manufacturer Reduced Order Processing Time 70% from 7 to 2 Days and increased capacity by 150% High Tech Manufacturer Effectively Planned 55% incremental demand and revenue via new bundles High Tech Manufacturer 1.5% sustained increase in Net Income Global Apparel Manufacturer Reduced inventory on hand by an estimated $100M Global Apparel Manufacturer Increased EBIT 25+% over 3 years Global C&IP Manufacturer Intelligent Self-learning, Insightful, Predictive, Cognitive Collaborative Networked, Inclusive, Distributed, Accessible Dynamic Real-time, Responsive, Flexible, Fast
  15. 15. Artificial Intelligence Data ProcessesPeople Intelligence
  16. 16. Intelligent Planning Roadmap Optimization • Fully integrated into Anaplan UI • Optimal – Feasible problem • Gurobi Solver Engine Machine Learning/AI • POCs with Google Cloud and other partners Predictive • Currently available 26 algorithms • Examples: Linear regression, Exponential smoothing, Erlang, Holt-Winters Optimization • Future versions to include all major problem types • Multivariable linear regression Machine Learning/AI • Leverage ML/AI algorithms and models for planning data Immediate Term Future This content is intended for information purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon in making purchasing decision.
  17. 17. Connected Network Planning • Collaborative Planning across the supply network • Dynamic and Continuous Planning and Optimization • Intelligent, Faster and better decisions Machine Learning Algorithms Continuous Optimization Leading Edge Innovative Technology
  18. 18. Component of Function that can be changed. e.g., unit volume Optimization Problem Definition Objective Variable Constraint Maximize or minimize the value of some function, F(x1,x2…xn)or Determine Feasibility e.g., maximize profit Constraints on individual x’s and/or combinations of x’s e.g., production capacity
  19. 19. Using only model based line items and formulas, the optimizer does not require any specific modeling skills. Optimizer Highlights UI DRIVEN MODEL BASED FAST CALCULATION Problem definition relies on a simple, Anaplan standard UI to give more flexibility to users. Gurobi is the fastest optimization engine on the market. Because the operation locks the model, it’s a prerequisite for the optimizer to be fast. This content is intended for information purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon in making purchasing decision.
  20. 20. ML POC: Large Beverage Company POC Hypothesis: Determine if forecast improvements could be achieved to yield COGS savings and associated SCM benefits Scope: Apply ML on POS data over 8-10 weeks Result: ML yielded a 15% improvement in forecast accuracy projected to save $2M in COGS for the sample of products in the study. Benefits: Targeted areas to apply the result • Financial forecasting at granular levels • Better allocate marketing spend across brands • Trade promotions and marketing event planning that lift sales up Additional downstream benefits through SCM • Reduced Safety Stock Investment • Reduced Expired and Obsolete Products • Reduced Working Capital
  21. 21. ML POC: large CPG/consumer healthcare company Result: • more accurate forecasts than stat models in 79% of cases • On average ML yielded 24% MAPE (vs. industry avg. of 36-40%) • potentials of $4.1M in savings. • $1.7M by addressing some of the missed sales • $2.4M in efficient inventory management Opportunities: Operating cost savings with improvements in sales prediction by: • Forecasting at granular level • Optimizing supply planning on top of ML results $4.1MSavings for 6 weeks in forecast accuracy
  22. 22. Anaplan Integrated ML
  23. 23. ML Model Performance (Illustrative with one product example) • ML models (with any combination of data) performing consistently better than stat models • Granularity of forecasting ability (at UPC-DC level) shows models can be tuned to yield better result for individual product or brand
  24. 24. Anaplan PlatformUsers Google Cloud Platform Data Sources POS ML POC Solution Architecture Financial Forecasting Demand Planning Others Data Hub External Data Shipping Promotions Big Query Machine Learning Cloud Storage
  25. 25. 26 • A connected planning approach results in better, more collaboratively created plans that are resilient in the face of change • Anaplan is a unique platform to develop, integrate, reconcile, refine, and manage plans • Anaplan capabilities can be implemented quickly using agile processes • Anaplan is highly scalable and supports very complex, financial, product and supply chain planning models Key takeaways Questions