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The BIG Picture – How Do Biofuels
             Fit In?
              Rick Cruse

         Iowa State University
Future Bioeconomy and Its
Impacts on Water (and soil) Resources
 Do we have the scientific knowledge to identify
  acceptable feedstock management?
 Can we balance energy needs, financial
  interests, and water/soil conservation in the
  bioenergy industry?
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Report
 During the next 50 years, demand for food crops is
 projected to grow by 70–85% under the MA
 scenarios, and demand for water by between 30% and
 85%.
Working Lands




  Our agricultural lands must work.
Current Working Lands & Water Quality




Current working agricultural lands sacrifice water quality.
Current Working Land and Soil Erosion




                                              2007

Cox, Craig, Andrew Hug, and Nils Bruzelius. 2011. Losing Ground. Environmental Working Group. Available at:
http://static.ewg.org/reports/2010/losingground/pdf/losingground_report.pdf
Oki, Taikan and Shinjiro Kanae. 2006. Global hydrological cycles and world water
   resources. Science. 313:1068-1072


Published by AAAS
Irrigation
 ~ 40% of world food comes from 18% of world’s
 cropland1
   India 3/5 of grain harvest
   China 4/5 of grain harvest




 1W Danielle Nierenberg, Linda Starke and Erik Assadourian. 2007
 State of the World – 2006. World Watch Institute.
Countries over-pumping aquifers in
  2005 and population (million)
      China        India        Iran        Isreal      Jordan      Mexico Moracco Pakistan

       1,316       1,103         70            7           6           107          31          158



    S. Arabia S. Korea         Spain        Syria      Tunesia         U.S       Yemen         Total

        25           48          43           19           10          291          21         3,262



Brown, Lester (Lead Author);Brian Black, Galal Hassan Galal Hussein (Topic Editor) "Aquifer depletion".
In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information
Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of
Earth January 23, 2010; Last revised Date March 22, 2011; Retrieved March 13, 2012
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Aquifer_depletion
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
                          (25N-40N, 95W-125 W)




R. Seager, et al. 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More
Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp.
1181 - 1184
Land Resources
Globally, 25% of agricultural land is considered highly
degraded such that livelihoods have been
compromised, production capacity has been seriously
diminished, and opportunities to renovate are limited or
nonexistent.




 FAO. 2011. State of the world’s land and water resources for food and
 agriculture. Summary Report. Food and Agriculture Organization of the
 United Nations. Rome
U.S. Agricultural Land Conversion
Six million acres eroded at 20 – 100 times
                     the soil renewal rate in 2007.




Cox, Craig, Andrew Hug, and Nils Bruzelius. 2011. Losing Ground. Environmental Working Group. Available at:
http://static.ewg.org/reports/2010/losingground/pdf/losingground_report.pdf
“One of the clearest trends
in the United States
observational record is an
increasing frequency and
intensity of heavy
precipitation events…
Over the last century there
was a 50% increase in the
frequency of days with
precipitation over 101.6
mm (four inches) in the
upper midwestern U.S.;
this trend is statistically
significant “
   Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global
   Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge
   University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Cedar Rapids Data
Cedar Rapids Data

                      1.25
                      inches




4.2 days                       6.6 days
              57% increase
Cedar Rapids Data

                                1.25
                                inches
    Years having more                    13
       than 8 days
2




      4.2 days                                6.6 days
                        57% increase
Big Picture
 Demand for Energy increasing
 Demand for food and water increasing
 Biofuels must compete with food production for land
 and water resources in a world with
   Greater climate variability
       Production impacts
       Water and soil impacts
   Soil and water degradation problems
   Political environment less stable than climate

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How Biofuels Fit Into the Growing Demands for Energy, Food and Water

  • 1. The BIG Picture – How Do Biofuels Fit In? Rick Cruse Iowa State University
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Future Bioeconomy and Its Impacts on Water (and soil) Resources  Do we have the scientific knowledge to identify acceptable feedstock management?  Can we balance energy needs, financial interests, and water/soil conservation in the bioenergy industry?
  • 5.
  • 6. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report  During the next 50 years, demand for food crops is projected to grow by 70–85% under the MA scenarios, and demand for water by between 30% and 85%.
  • 7. Working Lands Our agricultural lands must work.
  • 8. Current Working Lands & Water Quality Current working agricultural lands sacrifice water quality.
  • 9. Current Working Land and Soil Erosion 2007 Cox, Craig, Andrew Hug, and Nils Bruzelius. 2011. Losing Ground. Environmental Working Group. Available at: http://static.ewg.org/reports/2010/losingground/pdf/losingground_report.pdf
  • 10. Oki, Taikan and Shinjiro Kanae. 2006. Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science. 313:1068-1072 Published by AAAS
  • 11. Irrigation  ~ 40% of world food comes from 18% of world’s cropland1  India 3/5 of grain harvest  China 4/5 of grain harvest 1W Danielle Nierenberg, Linda Starke and Erik Assadourian. 2007 State of the World – 2006. World Watch Institute.
  • 12. Countries over-pumping aquifers in 2005 and population (million) China India Iran Isreal Jordan Mexico Moracco Pakistan 1,316 1,103 70 7 6 107 31 158 S. Arabia S. Korea Spain Syria Tunesia U.S Yemen Total 25 48 43 19 10 291 21 3,262 Brown, Lester (Lead Author);Brian Black, Galal Hassan Galal Hussein (Topic Editor) "Aquifer depletion". In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth January 23, 2010; Last revised Date March 22, 2011; Retrieved March 13, 2012 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Aquifer_depletion
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al. 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
  • 17. Globally, 25% of agricultural land is considered highly degraded such that livelihoods have been compromised, production capacity has been seriously diminished, and opportunities to renovate are limited or nonexistent. FAO. 2011. State of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture. Summary Report. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Rome
  • 19. Six million acres eroded at 20 – 100 times the soil renewal rate in 2007. Cox, Craig, Andrew Hug, and Nils Bruzelius. 2011. Losing Ground. Environmental Working Group. Available at: http://static.ewg.org/reports/2010/losingground/pdf/losingground_report.pdf
  • 20. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
  • 22. Cedar Rapids Data 1.25 inches 4.2 days 6.6 days 57% increase
  • 23. Cedar Rapids Data 1.25 inches Years having more 13 than 8 days 2 4.2 days 6.6 days 57% increase
  • 24. Big Picture  Demand for Energy increasing  Demand for food and water increasing  Biofuels must compete with food production for land and water resources in a world with  Greater climate variability  Production impacts  Water and soil impacts  Soil and water degradation problems  Political environment less stable than climate

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. The challenge we face!
  2. To meet this demand, our lands must work.
  3. Our current working lands are more than a bit dysfunctional. We are degrading water upon which human require for survival.
  4. In Iowa in 2007, land equivalent to 25% of Iowa corn and soybean acreage eroded at rates 20 – 100 times faster than soil forms.
  5. Water scarcity is a signal relative to sustainability of water resources in a given area.
  6. 90% of water consumption is for agriculture and 2/3 of water withdrawals are for Ag.In parts of Pakistan water tables are falling 1 – 2 meters per year (Lester Brown, 2005).Irrigated land ad very high production AND equally or more important production stability.
  7. American Farmland Trust estimates US farmland conversion of 23 million acres since mid 1970’s