1. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
Effects of Climate Change on
Wales and its People
Effeithiau Newid Hinsawdd ar
Gymru a’i Phobl

2. F
Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
BACKGROUND: THE PERFECT STORM
• CLIMATE CHANGE
• World populations will rise to between nine and ten
billion by 2050
• Global agricultural productivity per hectare is expected
to fall by between 3 and 16 percent by 2080
• Peak Oil
• Rise in demand for water

3. F
Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE FOR WALES
URBAN COMMUNITIES RURAL COMMUNITIES
weather extremes
harvest extremes
increased commodity prices
CIVIL UNREST/WAR
Displacement of Populations
Immigration

4. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
PAST EXPERIENCE
1939 – 45: 2nd World War
• Pre 1939 Britain imported around 55 million tons
• Nazi-occupied Jersey - children's growth
stunted by two and a half inches
• Starvation on mainland Europe was widespread
• European agriculture crippled
• No guaranteed food supplies

5. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
CAP
Priority for all European countries was
I. Peace
II. A stable supply of affordable food
III. A viable agricultural sector
RESULT:
UK EUROPE
1947 Agriculture Act 1957 Treaty of Rome defines
1973 Britain joins the EEC the objectives of a common
agricultural policy
1962 CAP comes into force

6. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

7. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

8. F
Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
2007/8 FOOD SHORTAGES
Bangladesh Brazil Burkina Faso Cameroon
Côte d'Ivoire Egypt Ethiopia Haiti India
Indonesia Mexico Mozambique Pakistan
Myanmar Panama Philippines Russia Senegal
Somalia Tajikistan Yemen Ukraine USA
protests • rioting • export quotas • export bans •
rationing • increase in food bank use
CONFLICT!

9. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
2nd MARCH 2011

10. F
Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
CONFLICT CLOSER TO HOME: MITIGATION

11. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
CONFLICT CLOSER TO HOME: MITIGATION

12. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
CONFLICT CLOSER TO HOME: MITIGATION

13. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

14. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

15. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

16. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

17. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

18. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

19. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

20. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru

21. Farmers’ Union of Wales
The Voice of Welsh Farming
Newid Hinsawdd a Chymru
Yr Estron
Roedd rhuddgoch wawr y rhedyn
Hyd lethrau gwyllt Moel Goch,
A'r llwyni criafol dan eu llwyth
Uwch ceunant Nant y Moch.
Ond darfu'r hen gymdeithas,
Diadell deg a roed
Yn aberth ar allorau gwiw
Drachwantus dduwiau'r coed
Doi awel bêr o'r eigion,
A'r heli ar ei min
O ddyffryn Rhyd y Forwyn draw
A ffriddoedd Gelli Grin.
Ond darfu'r hen draddodiad
Gwastrodwyd yr hen ffyrdd
Gan ddeiliaid Sgandinafia bell
Mae'r fro dan gwrlid gwyrdd
Ni welaf mwy un bugail
Yn adwy Bwlch y gwynt.
Darfyddodd swyn y filltir sgwâr
A'm noddodd ddyddiau gynt
A chlywaf gri y gigfran
A grawciodd er cyn cof
A thystia'i galwad cras yn glir
I estron hawlio'r fro.
Morris J. Morris
The Alien
The dawn crimson of the bracken
Was over the wild slopes of Moel Goch,
And the mountain ash groves under their load
Above the ravines of Nant y Moch.
But the old community was scattered
The fair flock given
As a sacrifice on the worthy altar
Of the coveting gods of the trees
A pure breeze from the ocean came,
The salt water on her lips
From the valley of Rhyd y Forwyn
And the sloping pastures of Gelli Grin.
But the old tradition was scattered
The old ways were erased
By the natives of faraway Scandinavia
The region is under a green blanket
No more will we see the shepherd
In Bwlch y Gwynt pass.
Ended is the charm of the square mile
That nurtured me in former days
And I hear the cry of the raven
That's cawed since before memory
Its harsh call clearly testifies
That an alien has the region.
Morris J. Morris
Y DIWEDD
THE END