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Mortality and Morbidity in the Population Professor Michael Dunne QUT School of Public Health Director, International Health Program Hue University of Medicine and Pharmacy (no official position, but a good friend)
Content ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Important definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Health expectancy
Important definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A collective term for the health & disease situation in a population ,[object Object],[object Object]
“ Epidemiology”  derived from the Greek language ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
  DEFINITION ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EPIDEMIOLOGY and  CLINICAL MEDICINE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mortality in Australia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Major causes of death  (Australia) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Age and mortality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life expectancy in Australia 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Change in life expectancy over time ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Life expectancy at birth, Australia   Source: ABS, 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Deaths from all causes throughout the 20 th  century in Australia Source: CSIRO, 2001
Why has life expectancy improved so much?
20 th  century decline in deaths from infectious disease, Australia  (Includes Polio, Diptheria, Whooping Cough, Measles)
These trends are similar throughout most of the world (eg USA)
Source: University of Wisconsin, USA; www.uwmc.uwc.edu
Significant rise, then decline, in coronary heart disease in Australia, 1940 - 2005 Note: Rates are age-standardised to the Australian population. Source: AIHW National Mortality Database                                                                                                                                                   
Deaths from stroke declined by almost half across the 20th Century ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Epidemiology of road trauma
The Australian Transport  Safety Bureau ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Australian epidemiological data on road deaths
Risk of death on the roads is now at its lowest level
 
Year    Road    Rail  Marine  Aviation 1997  1767  68  46  37  1998  1755  59  46  55  1999  1764    47    51   46  2000  1817    46    42   43  2001  1737  56    59   42  2002  1715    59    48   34  2003  1621    48    41   44  2004  1583    47    41   33  2005  1627    38    39   43  2006  1599    40  na   40   The Aust Transport Safety Bureau records, investigates and helps to  prevent transport-related death and injury (see Bills, 2007)
But recently, there has been a slight increase….   ATSB, Road Deaths Bulletin, January 2009 There was a total of 120 road deaths throughout Australia in January 2009. - this is a 7.1 per cent  increase  over the January 2008 figure This increase unfortunately comes after many years of a trend for decreasing road deaths.  Clearly, we need to sustain our national efforts and think of new ways to prevent accidents
In general though, the trend is positive. Why? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public health professionals and prevention of road deaths ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In Australia, we also see patterns for improvement in relatively rare causes of death and injury For example, deaths caused by guns
Decline in deaths by firearms over a decade (1991-2001)   Source: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2004
So how long is human life in Australia compared to the rest of the world?
Life expectancy in Australia is ranked among the highest in the world ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life expectancy in Australia and other countries Source: WHO, 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
HIV/AIDS In  Africa Life expectancy can be  calculated for people with, or without, HIV/AIDS
Source: United Nations Development Program
Life expectancy in Australia and other countries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Life expectancy in Vietnam (2003-2009 estimates) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: CIA World Fact Book, update September 17, 2009
LE varies WITHIN countries Differences in life expectancy within Australia
Life expectancy among  indigenous Australians ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cancer in indigenous and other Australians   Source: MJA, 2005, 182, 277-80 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
5-year survival rates after diagnosis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The bottom line ,[object Object],[object Object]
Health in Western Countries What may happen in the future?
Will life expectancy continue to improve in western countries? ,[object Object]
 
 
Epidemiologists  study the problem  and try to find  solutions
Latest findings regarding obesity and risk of death ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Obesity and Risk of Death The Lancet , March 20, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Other indicators of  population health
Morbidity ,[object Object],[object Object]
Morbidity assessed by national  health surveys ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Morbidity in Australia: most frequently reported conditions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Health-related actions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Disability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Disability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Healthy life expectancy ,[object Object],[object Object]
Males: Healthy Life Expectancy Source: World Health Organisation Australian men (est=70.1y) are ranked number 3
Females: Healthy Life Expectancy Source:  World Health Organisation Australian women (est. 73.2y) are also ranked number 3
You are a student in Public Health, and study within a medical school How does the science of PUBLIC HEALTH save lives?
Case study: Control of Sepsis One of the first times epidemiology was used to improve the  practice of medicine
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sepsis: external signs
Triptych of a European hospital in the 16 th  Century
“ Childbed fever” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How was it prevented? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Dr Oliver Wendell Holmes, American physician Investigated sepsis after a  doctor and a med student  died of blood poisoning after performing an autospy on a dead mother. In 1842, he proposed rigorous hand-washing after each medical procedure to prevent contagion
The idea that the infection was acquired in hospital, and transmitted by doctors was ridiculed by some, including an obstetrician Charles Meigs, who said: “ Doctors are gentlemen, and gentlemen’s hands are clean” Source:   De Costa, 2002. Medical Journal of Australia
Meanwhile, in Austria, a Hungarian doctor Ignaz Semmelweis , devoted many years to prove a link between hospital hygiene  and sepsis deaths
Semmelweis and the control of maternal sepsis My doctrine is produced in order to banish the terror  from lying-in hospitals,  to preserve the wife to the husband, and the mother to the child... Ignaz Semmelweis, 1861
Mortality rate of mothers who delivered in Vienna hospital, 1841-3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Semmelweis conducted the first epidemiological study of sepsis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Epidemiological analysis of an intervention in the obstetrics ward of the hospital ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Maternal deaths :  The current situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Case study 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sudden Infant Death Syndrome ,[object Object],[object Object]
What causes SIDS? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Combined efforts by public health and medical researchers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public health researchers examined the social and behavioural factors influencing SIDS … To provide the evidence needed for prevention campaigns
Age distributions of SIDS and explained sudden and unexpected deaths in infancy infants Source: LEACH, C.E.A. et al (1999) Epidemiology of SIDS and Explained Sudden Infant Deaths.  Pediatrics  104:43
At about three months, SIDS can equal all other causes
Mother’s Age by Risk of Sudden Infant Death 0.7 35+ 0.6 30-34 0.7 25-29 1.3 20-24 1.8 Under 20 Relative Risk  of SIDS
Sudden Infant Death by Mother’s Age and Birth Order  (Relative Risk Of Death)
Sudden Infant Death by Mother’s Age and Birth Order  (Relative Risk Of Death)
 
Seasonal Incidence of SIDS (Southern Hemisphere)
Main risks for SIDS identified by social research  (from Homeier, 2005) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Other biological risks include…. (from Weese-Mayer et al, AJHG, 2007) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Remember one essential thing about your profession
Public Health It is about understanding, then  changing , the social conditions that affect diseases, heath care and well-being of individuals, families and society as a whole
Health Promotion and Disease Prevention in Action Design, Implementation and  and Evaluation the effectiveness of SIDS prevention
“ BACK TO SLEEP”:   A Better Way to Make Up Baby’s Cot to Reduce the Risks http://raisingchildren.net.au/articles/preventing_sids.html
The main things parents can do to  Reduce the Risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Back to Sleep” campaign ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Decline in SIDS deaths  over a 15 yr period  (USA, similar in Aust)
Through Public Health Action ,[object Object],[object Object]
Health problems in the population change over time, but they will never disappear ,[object Object]

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Mortality and morbidity trends in Australia

  • 1. Mortality and Morbidity in the Population Professor Michael Dunne QUT School of Public Health Director, International Health Program Hue University of Medicine and Pharmacy (no official position, but a good friend)
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  • 17. Deaths from all causes throughout the 20 th century in Australia Source: CSIRO, 2001
  • 18. Why has life expectancy improved so much?
  • 19. 20 th century decline in deaths from infectious disease, Australia (Includes Polio, Diptheria, Whooping Cough, Measles)
  • 20. These trends are similar throughout most of the world (eg USA)
  • 21. Source: University of Wisconsin, USA; www.uwmc.uwc.edu
  • 22. Significant rise, then decline, in coronary heart disease in Australia, 1940 - 2005 Note: Rates are age-standardised to the Australian population. Source: AIHW National Mortality Database                                                                                                                                              
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  • 27. Risk of death on the roads is now at its lowest level
  • 28.  
  • 29. Year Road Rail Marine Aviation 1997 1767 68 46 37 1998 1755 59 46 55 1999 1764 47 51 46 2000 1817 46 42 43 2001 1737 56 59 42 2002 1715 59 48 34 2003 1621 48 41 44 2004 1583 47 41 33 2005 1627 38 39 43 2006 1599 40 na 40 The Aust Transport Safety Bureau records, investigates and helps to prevent transport-related death and injury (see Bills, 2007)
  • 30. But recently, there has been a slight increase…. ATSB, Road Deaths Bulletin, January 2009 There was a total of 120 road deaths throughout Australia in January 2009. - this is a 7.1 per cent increase over the January 2008 figure This increase unfortunately comes after many years of a trend for decreasing road deaths. Clearly, we need to sustain our national efforts and think of new ways to prevent accidents
  • 31.
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  • 33. In Australia, we also see patterns for improvement in relatively rare causes of death and injury For example, deaths caused by guns
  • 34. Decline in deaths by firearms over a decade (1991-2001) Source: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2004
  • 35. So how long is human life in Australia compared to the rest of the world?
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  • 41. HIV/AIDS In Africa Life expectancy can be calculated for people with, or without, HIV/AIDS
  • 42. Source: United Nations Development Program
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  • 45. LE varies WITHIN countries Differences in life expectancy within Australia
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  • 50. Health in Western Countries What may happen in the future?
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  • 54. Epidemiologists study the problem and try to find solutions
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  • 57. Other indicators of population health
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  • 65. Males: Healthy Life Expectancy Source: World Health Organisation Australian men (est=70.1y) are ranked number 3
  • 66. Females: Healthy Life Expectancy Source: World Health Organisation Australian women (est. 73.2y) are also ranked number 3
  • 67. You are a student in Public Health, and study within a medical school How does the science of PUBLIC HEALTH save lives?
  • 68. Case study: Control of Sepsis One of the first times epidemiology was used to improve the practice of medicine
  • 69.
  • 71. Triptych of a European hospital in the 16 th Century
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  • 74. Dr Oliver Wendell Holmes, American physician Investigated sepsis after a doctor and a med student died of blood poisoning after performing an autospy on a dead mother. In 1842, he proposed rigorous hand-washing after each medical procedure to prevent contagion
  • 75. The idea that the infection was acquired in hospital, and transmitted by doctors was ridiculed by some, including an obstetrician Charles Meigs, who said: “ Doctors are gentlemen, and gentlemen’s hands are clean” Source: De Costa, 2002. Medical Journal of Australia
  • 76. Meanwhile, in Austria, a Hungarian doctor Ignaz Semmelweis , devoted many years to prove a link between hospital hygiene and sepsis deaths
  • 77. Semmelweis and the control of maternal sepsis My doctrine is produced in order to banish the terror from lying-in hospitals, to preserve the wife to the husband, and the mother to the child... Ignaz Semmelweis, 1861
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  • 86. Public health researchers examined the social and behavioural factors influencing SIDS … To provide the evidence needed for prevention campaigns
  • 87. Age distributions of SIDS and explained sudden and unexpected deaths in infancy infants Source: LEACH, C.E.A. et al (1999) Epidemiology of SIDS and Explained Sudden Infant Deaths. Pediatrics 104:43
  • 88. At about three months, SIDS can equal all other causes
  • 89. Mother’s Age by Risk of Sudden Infant Death 0.7 35+ 0.6 30-34 0.7 25-29 1.3 20-24 1.8 Under 20 Relative Risk of SIDS
  • 90. Sudden Infant Death by Mother’s Age and Birth Order (Relative Risk Of Death)
  • 91. Sudden Infant Death by Mother’s Age and Birth Order (Relative Risk Of Death)
  • 92.  
  • 93. Seasonal Incidence of SIDS (Southern Hemisphere)
  • 94.
  • 95.
  • 96. Remember one essential thing about your profession
  • 97. Public Health It is about understanding, then changing , the social conditions that affect diseases, heath care and well-being of individuals, families and society as a whole
  • 98. Health Promotion and Disease Prevention in Action Design, Implementation and and Evaluation the effectiveness of SIDS prevention
  • 99. “ BACK TO SLEEP”: A Better Way to Make Up Baby’s Cot to Reduce the Risks http://raisingchildren.net.au/articles/preventing_sids.html
  • 100.
  • 101.
  • 102. Decline in SIDS deaths over a 15 yr period (USA, similar in Aust)
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  • 104.