The Belarusian ruble has been an extremely volatile currency since its introduction in 1992. It has experienced high inflation and devaluation over the years. In 1999, 5 million rubles were worth only 10 US dollars, and the currency lost half its value during the 2011 financial crisis. The Belarusian government has taken steps to curb inflation by raising interest rates and tying the currency to the US dollar instead of the Russian ruble for stability. However, political and economic issues continue to pose risks for the Belarusian ruble.
2. Premises
•
The Soviet ruble - currency of the Soviet Union from 1923 to December 26,
1991.
•
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992-1995, the Soviet ruble has
gradually taken out of circulation.
•
Coupons are used.
3. Volatility vs. History
• Belarus ruble has been an extremely
volatile currency since its introduction
in 1992.
• In 1999, 5 million rubles were worth
10 USD.
• Since 1992 20 types of payment
cards have been produced
• In 2009 ruble has been tied to the
dollar
• In 2011 Belarusian ruble became
three times weeker
4. Purchasing power
• 2011 Financial crisis
• 50% devaluation of
Belarusian ruble
• Exchange rate rise
• Basic inflation of 118%
• Black market arises
5. Interest rate over the years
8.55% - 2008
11.68% - 2009
9.22% -2010
Belarus is raising its main interest rate on 1
June 2011 to 16% from 14% as it tries to
battle inflation.
6. Interest Rate Spread
Interest rate spread - the interest rate charged by banks on
loans to prime customers minus the interest rate paid by
commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings
deposits. Interest rate spread (lending rate minus deposit rate,
%)
7. Political Issues
• Introduction of the Russian ruble, firstly, within the Union
State of Belarus and Russia.
• Starting in 2008, the Central Bank of the Republic of
Belarus announced that the ruble will be tied to
the United States dollar instead of the Russian ruble.
• At present, Belarusian investors assess the risks as the
highest after Argentina and Venezuela, among
developing countries that operate on the Eurobond
market.