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Presentation to Greater Fairbanks
Chamber of Commerce's
Government Relations Committee
Brad Keithley
Managing Director, Alaskans
for Sustainable Budgets
September 27, 2022

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The current oil price outlook is softening …
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That translates into budget challenges …
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The campaign solutions: Dunleavy (POMV 50/50 + …)
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The campaign solutions: Gara (oil taxes + …)
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The campaign solutions: Walker (PFD cuts …)
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Similarities & Differences
● All rely to some degree on PFD cuts (Hammond: “head taxes” on
middle & lower income Alaska families)
○ Dunleavy: POMV 50/50
○ Gara: PFD of “$2200 and growing” (about POMV 40/60)
○ Walker: POMV 25/75
● Interestingly, all also avoid revenue contributions from the Top20%
○ Dunleavy: “No taxes”
○ Gara: "I don't think we need an income tax. We need a fair share for our oil."
○ Walker: No mention on website or stump speech, vague reference to “broad
based taxes” in Alaska Chamber forum
● Differences
○ Additional spending
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Our assessment …
● Dunleavy & Gara’s
plans are unrealistic
○ Dunleavy: Relies too
heavily on spending
restraint (failed: 2019)
○ Gara: Relies too heavily
on oil tax increases
(failed: 2020)
● Both likely lead to con’t
gridlock & PFD cuts
● Walker’s is inequitable &
economically harmful
○ Leona Helmsley: “Only the
little people pay taxes”
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Somewhat surprised/disappointed …
Virtually no candidates are proposing the
“all of the above” approach advanced by
the Legislature’s 2021 Fiscal Policy
Working Group:
● Some PFD cuts (POMV 50/50)
● Some spending restraint
● Some oil tax adjustments
● Some broad based (individual) taxes
To us, it provides the best alternative for
avoiding continued gridlock
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