SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 24
MOBILE IS EATINGTHE
WORLD
Presented at BEA, May 2013
Benedict Evans
@benedictevans
Enders Analysis
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Global annual unit sales (m)
Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets
The state of PCs
Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis2
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Global annual unit sales (m)
Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones
Smart phones are exploding
3 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Global annual unit sales (m)
Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones All mobile phones
4
More mobile growth coming
Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
Global annual unit sales (m)
PCs Smartphones and tablets
Source: Enders Analysis5
The future is mobile
The world in 2017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Population Adults Literate adults Mobile Smart phones PCs Tablets
2017 forecast base (m)
Source: GSMA,World Bank, Enders Analysis6
2012 Growth to 2017
• Mobile was always much bigger than tech, but always separate
• Smartphones mean theTechnology and Mobile worlds merge
• Internet and Media are being dragged along
• Tablets accelerate the change
• This is changing everything
Fundamental change
7
Fundamental change in scale
PC industry
• 350m PCs sold in 2012
• 1.6bn units in use
• Replaced every 4-5 years
• Shared
Mobile industry
• 1.7bn phones sold in 2012
• 3.2bn mobile users
• Replaced every 2 years
• One per person
8
Fundamental change in use
PC internet
• Shared, or used at work
• Semi-portable at best
• Web and web search
Mobile internet
• Personal
• Taken everywhere
• Web, web search, apps,
social, location, service
integration, prediction,APIs,
image recognition, NFC...
9
0
25
50
75
100
Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013
Microsoft share of connected device unit sales (%)
Source: Enders Analysis10
The irrelevance of Microsoft
0
25
50
75
100
Units Revenue Operating Profit
Global handset industry share, Q1 2013 (%)
Apple Samsung All other
Source:Apple, Samsung, Enders Analysis11
Dominance of Apple & Samsung
Industry scale
Mobile networks
Advertising
Mobile phones
PCs
Apple
Books
Online advertising
Amazon
Google
Recorded music
Facebook
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250
2012 global revenue ($bn)
Source: Zenith,Apple,Amazon, Google (excludes Motorola Mobility), Facebook, Enders Analysis12
0
15
30
45
60
Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012
Global unit sales (m)
Laptops Desktops Tablets
Tablets overtaking PCs
13 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012
Global unit sales (m)
iPad Branded Android Kindle Fire Nexus
120m tablets in 2012 - 66m iPads
Source:Apple, Google,Asus, Enders Analysis14
• Well over 200m tablets will be sold in 2013
• Driven by size and price - 7” screens, $300 and (far below)
• A flood of cheap generic Chinese Androids - perhaps 125m
units in China alone this year, with prices under $150
• Not clear these compete directly with Apple, Samsung &
Google
Tablets in 2013
15
0
25
50
75
100
Jan 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012
US Google search volume (indexed)
kindle kindle fire nook
Weakening interest in ereaders
Source: Google16
iPad dominates use everywhere
0
20
40
60
80
100
US UK Germany France Japan China
Share of tablet web traffic, February 2013 (%)
iPad Android Kindle Fire Nook
Source:Adobe17
Amazon
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Annual results ($bn)
Revenue Net income
Source:Amazon18
0
2
4
6
8
10
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13
Amazon North American revenue ($bn)
Media revenue General merchandise & other revenue
Source:Amazon19
21st Century Sears Roebuck
0%
1%
2%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ecommerce as % US retail revenue
Much more ecommerce to come
Source: BLS, Enders Analysis20
‘Four horsemen’
Apple Google Facebook Amazon
21
0
200
400
600
800
Mar-10 Sept-10 Mar-11 Sept-11 Mar-12 Sept-12 Mar-13
Active users (m)
Apple iOS Google Android Facebook mobile users Amazon accounts
22 Source:Apple, Google, Facebook,Amazon, Enders Analysis
Ecosystem sizes
• Apple and Google’s Android have won
• Unlikely that other platforms will be relevant (Windows
Phone, Blackberry, other newer efforts)
• But share of value and use between Apple and Android is fluid
• Google’s control of Android is partial - Amazon Kindle,
Chinese Android, Samsung intentions unclear
• Facebook and Amazon trying to extract value
23
Platform wars
24
For Apple, the
ecosystem is what
sells hardware
For Amazon, Google
and Facebook, the
experience on the
phone is what drives
engagement with all
their services
Ecosystem is the key leverage
point

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Rethinking the Mobile Web by Yiibu
Rethinking the Mobile Web by YiibuRethinking the Mobile Web by Yiibu
Rethinking the Mobile Web by YiibuBryan Rieger
 
Internet Trends 2014 - Redesigned
Internet Trends 2014 - RedesignedInternet Trends 2014 - Redesigned
Internet Trends 2014 - RedesignedEmiland
 
Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...
Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...
Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...Vivastream
 
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014BI Intelligence
 
What mobile technology is becoming
What mobile technology is becomingWhat mobile technology is becoming
What mobile technology is becomingRaimo Van Der Klein
 
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? a16z
 
50 Amazing Facts About Mobile
50 Amazing Facts About Mobile 50 Amazing Facts About Mobile
50 Amazing Facts About Mobile SIXTY
 
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017a16z
 
LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08
LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08
LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08Erick Schonfeld
 
Case study mobile computing
Case study mobile computingCase study mobile computing
Case study mobile computingkaleeswaran S
 
Future Now!
Future Now!Future Now!
Future Now!Intergen
 
2013 Umeng Insight Report
2013 Umeng Insight Report2013 Umeng Insight Report
2013 Umeng Insight ReportUmeng
 
Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com
Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com
Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com Kapil Khandelwal (KK)
 
Top 10 Trends at MWC16
Top 10 Trends at MWC16Top 10 Trends at MWC16
Top 10 Trends at MWC16DMI
 
2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILE
2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILE2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILE
2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILEMonika Mikowska
 
Redefiners: Capturing Media Growth Dollars
Redefiners: Capturing Media Growth DollarsRedefiners: Capturing Media Growth Dollars
Redefiners: Capturing Media Growth DollarsActivate
 
Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...
Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...
Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...Kapil Khandelwal (KK)
 

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Rethinking the Mobile Web by Yiibu
Rethinking the Mobile Web by YiibuRethinking the Mobile Web by Yiibu
Rethinking the Mobile Web by Yiibu
 
Internet Trends 2014 - Redesigned
Internet Trends 2014 - RedesignedInternet Trends 2014 - Redesigned
Internet Trends 2014 - Redesigned
 
Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...
Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...
Around the World with Mobile Global Insights and Regional Relevance of Mobile...
 
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 IntroductionNew Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
New Technology 2016 L01 Introduction
 
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL: 2014
 
What mobile technology is becoming
What mobile technology is becomingWhat mobile technology is becoming
What mobile technology is becoming
 
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On? U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
U.S. Technology Funding -- What's Going On?
 
50 Amazing Facts About Mobile
50 Amazing Facts About Mobile 50 Amazing Facts About Mobile
50 Amazing Facts About Mobile
 
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016-2017
 
99 Facts on the Future of Business
99 Facts on the Future of Business99 Facts on the Future of Business
99 Facts on the Future of Business
 
LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08
LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08
LinkedIn Demographic Data Jun08
 
Case study mobile computing
Case study mobile computingCase study mobile computing
Case study mobile computing
 
Future Now!
Future Now!Future Now!
Future Now!
 
2013 Umeng Insight Report
2013 Umeng Insight Report2013 Umeng Insight Report
2013 Umeng Insight Report
 
12 Trends from Cannes 2011
12 Trends from Cannes 201112 Trends from Cannes 2011
12 Trends from Cannes 2011
 
Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com
Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com
Integration is a modern necessity : Kapil Khandelwal, www.kapilkhandelwal.com
 
Top 10 Trends at MWC16
Top 10 Trends at MWC16Top 10 Trends at MWC16
Top 10 Trends at MWC16
 
2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILE
2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILE2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILE
2015 YEAR IN REVIEW: MOBILE
 
Redefiners: Capturing Media Growth Dollars
Redefiners: Capturing Media Growth DollarsRedefiners: Capturing Media Growth Dollars
Redefiners: Capturing Media Growth Dollars
 
Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...
Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...
Censoring social media in Healthcare is Regressive : Kapil Khandelwal, www.ka...
 

Ähnlich wie Mobile Is Eating the World: How Smartphones are Transforming Everything

Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis PresentationBenedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis PresentationCommunicate Magazine
 
Mobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The WorldMobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The WorldArabNet ME
 
Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)a16z
 
thinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget Presentation
thinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget PresentationthinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget Presentation
thinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget PresentationthinkLA
 
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012Alex Gorski
 
Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""
Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""
Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""sprie-stanford
 
Kunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategier
Kunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategierKunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategier
Kunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategierHiQInternational
 
Reference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 English
Reference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 EnglishReference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 English
Reference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 EnglishC. Keiko Funahashi
 
50 charts-future-marketing-technology
50 charts-future-marketing-technology50 charts-future-marketing-technology
50 charts-future-marketing-technologyHuy Nguyen
 
Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012Monitise MEA
 
Why Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on MobileWhy Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on MobileDigiday
 
Business insider screens are proliferating
Business insider   screens are proliferatingBusiness insider   screens are proliferating
Business insider screens are proliferatingBabbel
 
The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12
The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12
The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12Interactive Scotland
 
Taking advantage of the growth in mobile gaming
Taking advantage of the growth in mobile gamingTaking advantage of the growth in mobile gaming
Taking advantage of the growth in mobile gamingÓlafur Andri Ragnarsson
 
Wonk Mobile Future of Mobile
Wonk Mobile Future of MobileWonk Mobile Future of Mobile
Wonk Mobile Future of MobileWonk Mobile
 
Socialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib Olander
Socialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib OlanderSocialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib Olander
Socialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib OlanderMediabistro
 
Why you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile webWhy you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile webTijs Vrolix
 
Business insider digital media strategies
Business insider digital media strategiesBusiness insider digital media strategies
Business insider digital media strategiesCatchTalk.TV
 
Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)
Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)
Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)Philip J Armstrong
 

Ähnlich wie Mobile Is Eating the World: How Smartphones are Transforming Everything (20)

Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis PresentationBenedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
Benedict Evans Enders Analysis Presentation
 
Mobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The WorldMobile Eating The World
Mobile Eating The World
 
Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)
Mobile Is Eating the World (2014)
 
thinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget Presentation
thinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget PresentationthinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget Presentation
thinkLA Mobile Breakfast 2014 - Henry Blodget Presentation
 
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
Mary Meeker Internet Trends - 2012
 
Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""
Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""
Richard Lim: "Mobile Apps: The Next $100+ Billion Market?""
 
Kunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategier
Kunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategierKunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategier
Kunskapsbaren 2011 Linköping - Mobila trender & strategier
 
Reference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 English
Reference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 EnglishReference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 English
Reference: Umeng China Mobile Internet Report Q3 2012 English
 
50 charts-future-marketing-technology
50 charts-future-marketing-technology50 charts-future-marketing-technology
50 charts-future-marketing-technology
 
Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012Mobile Trends for 2012
Mobile Trends for 2012
 
Why Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on MobileWhy Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
Why Publishers Must Go All in on Mobile
 
Business insider screens are proliferating
Business insider   screens are proliferatingBusiness insider   screens are proliferating
Business insider screens are proliferating
 
Mobile future in_focus
Mobile future in_focusMobile future in_focus
Mobile future in_focus
 
The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12
The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12
The Mobile Digital Omnivore, comScore, Dec 12
 
Taking advantage of the growth in mobile gaming
Taking advantage of the growth in mobile gamingTaking advantage of the growth in mobile gaming
Taking advantage of the growth in mobile gaming
 
Wonk Mobile Future of Mobile
Wonk Mobile Future of MobileWonk Mobile Future of Mobile
Wonk Mobile Future of Mobile
 
Socialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib Olander
Socialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib OlanderSocialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib Olander
Socialize: Monetizing Social Media - Gib Olander
 
Why you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile webWhy you should get serious about the mobile web
Why you should get serious about the mobile web
 
Business insider digital media strategies
Business insider digital media strategiesBusiness insider digital media strategies
Business insider digital media strategies
 
Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)
Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)
Reaching Customers in a Social Media/ Multi-Device World at #IDSD (2012)
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a realityDecarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a realityIES VE
 
Data governance with Unity Catalog Presentation
Data governance with Unity Catalog PresentationData governance with Unity Catalog Presentation
Data governance with Unity Catalog PresentationKnoldus Inc.
 
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24Mark Goldstein
 
Scale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL Router
Scale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL RouterScale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL Router
Scale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL RouterMydbops
 
Connecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdf
Connecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdfConnecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdf
Connecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdfNeo4j
 
Glenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security Observability
Glenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security ObservabilityGlenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security Observability
Glenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security Observabilityitnewsafrica
 
New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024BookNet Canada
 
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPathCommunity
 
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better StrongerModern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Strongerpanagenda
 
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architecturesQCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architecturesBernd Ruecker
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024BookNet Canada
 
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Alkin Tezuysal
 
Varsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical Infrastructure
Varsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical InfrastructureVarsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical Infrastructure
Varsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical Infrastructureitnewsafrica
 
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptxGenerative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptxfnnc6jmgwh
 
Passkey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
Passkey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptxPasskey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
Passkey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptxLoriGlavin3
 
The Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
The Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptxThe Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
The Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptxLoriGlavin3
 
Moving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdf
Moving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdfMoving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdf
Moving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdfLoriGlavin3
 
A Journey Into the Emotions of Software Developers
A Journey Into the Emotions of Software DevelopersA Journey Into the Emotions of Software Developers
A Journey Into the Emotions of Software DevelopersNicole Novielli
 
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfSo einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfpanagenda
 
The Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and Cons
The Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and ConsThe Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and Cons
The Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and ConsPixlogix Infotech
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a realityDecarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
 
Data governance with Unity Catalog Presentation
Data governance with Unity Catalog PresentationData governance with Unity Catalog Presentation
Data governance with Unity Catalog Presentation
 
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
 
Scale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL Router
Scale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL RouterScale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL Router
Scale your database traffic with Read & Write split using MySQL Router
 
Connecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdf
Connecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdfConnecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdf
Connecting the Dots for Information Discovery.pdf
 
Glenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security Observability
Glenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security ObservabilityGlenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security Observability
Glenn Lazarus- Why Your Observability Strategy Needs Security Observability
 
New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
 
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
 
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better StrongerModern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
 
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architecturesQCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: Loan Stars - Tech Forum 2024
 
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
 
Varsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical Infrastructure
Varsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical InfrastructureVarsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical Infrastructure
Varsha Sewlal- Cyber Attacks on Critical Critical Infrastructure
 
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptxGenerative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
 
Passkey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
Passkey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptxPasskey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
Passkey Providers and Enabling Portability: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
 
The Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
The Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptxThe Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
The Fit for Passkeys for Employee and Consumer Sign-ins: FIDO Paris Seminar.pptx
 
Moving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdf
Moving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdfMoving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdf
Moving Beyond Passwords: FIDO Paris Seminar.pdf
 
A Journey Into the Emotions of Software Developers
A Journey Into the Emotions of Software DevelopersA Journey Into the Emotions of Software Developers
A Journey Into the Emotions of Software Developers
 
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfSo einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
 
The Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and Cons
The Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and ConsThe Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and Cons
The Ultimate Guide to Choosing WordPress Pros and Cons
 

Mobile Is Eating the World: How Smartphones are Transforming Everything

  • 1. MOBILE IS EATINGTHE WORLD Presented at BEA, May 2013 Benedict Evans @benedictevans Enders Analysis
  • 2. 0 50 100 150 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets The state of PCs Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis2
  • 3. 0 200 400 600 800 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones Smart phones are exploding 3 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  • 4. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global annual unit sales (m) Corporate PCs Consumer PCs Tablets Smart phones All mobile phones 4 More mobile growth coming Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  • 5. 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e Global annual unit sales (m) PCs Smartphones and tablets Source: Enders Analysis5 The future is mobile
  • 6. The world in 2017 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Population Adults Literate adults Mobile Smart phones PCs Tablets 2017 forecast base (m) Source: GSMA,World Bank, Enders Analysis6 2012 Growth to 2017
  • 7. • Mobile was always much bigger than tech, but always separate • Smartphones mean theTechnology and Mobile worlds merge • Internet and Media are being dragged along • Tablets accelerate the change • This is changing everything Fundamental change 7
  • 8. Fundamental change in scale PC industry • 350m PCs sold in 2012 • 1.6bn units in use • Replaced every 4-5 years • Shared Mobile industry • 1.7bn phones sold in 2012 • 3.2bn mobile users • Replaced every 2 years • One per person 8
  • 9. Fundamental change in use PC internet • Shared, or used at work • Semi-portable at best • Web and web search Mobile internet • Personal • Taken everywhere • Web, web search, apps, social, location, service integration, prediction,APIs, image recognition, NFC... 9
  • 10. 0 25 50 75 100 Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013 Microsoft share of connected device unit sales (%) Source: Enders Analysis10 The irrelevance of Microsoft
  • 11. 0 25 50 75 100 Units Revenue Operating Profit Global handset industry share, Q1 2013 (%) Apple Samsung All other Source:Apple, Samsung, Enders Analysis11 Dominance of Apple & Samsung
  • 12. Industry scale Mobile networks Advertising Mobile phones PCs Apple Books Online advertising Amazon Google Recorded music Facebook 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 2012 global revenue ($bn) Source: Zenith,Apple,Amazon, Google (excludes Motorola Mobility), Facebook, Enders Analysis12
  • 13. 0 15 30 45 60 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Global unit sales (m) Laptops Desktops Tablets Tablets overtaking PCs 13 Source: Gartner, IDC, Enders Analysis
  • 14. 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Global unit sales (m) iPad Branded Android Kindle Fire Nexus 120m tablets in 2012 - 66m iPads Source:Apple, Google,Asus, Enders Analysis14
  • 15. • Well over 200m tablets will be sold in 2013 • Driven by size and price - 7” screens, $300 and (far below) • A flood of cheap generic Chinese Androids - perhaps 125m units in China alone this year, with prices under $150 • Not clear these compete directly with Apple, Samsung & Google Tablets in 2013 15
  • 16. 0 25 50 75 100 Jan 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 US Google search volume (indexed) kindle kindle fire nook Weakening interest in ereaders Source: Google16
  • 17. iPad dominates use everywhere 0 20 40 60 80 100 US UK Germany France Japan China Share of tablet web traffic, February 2013 (%) iPad Android Kindle Fire Nook Source:Adobe17
  • 18. Amazon -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Annual results ($bn) Revenue Net income Source:Amazon18
  • 19. 0 2 4 6 8 10 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Amazon North American revenue ($bn) Media revenue General merchandise & other revenue Source:Amazon19 21st Century Sears Roebuck
  • 20. 0% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Ecommerce as % US retail revenue Much more ecommerce to come Source: BLS, Enders Analysis20
  • 21. ‘Four horsemen’ Apple Google Facebook Amazon 21
  • 22. 0 200 400 600 800 Mar-10 Sept-10 Mar-11 Sept-11 Mar-12 Sept-12 Mar-13 Active users (m) Apple iOS Google Android Facebook mobile users Amazon accounts 22 Source:Apple, Google, Facebook,Amazon, Enders Analysis Ecosystem sizes
  • 23. • Apple and Google’s Android have won • Unlikely that other platforms will be relevant (Windows Phone, Blackberry, other newer efforts) • But share of value and use between Apple and Android is fluid • Google’s control of Android is partial - Amazon Kindle, Chinese Android, Samsung intentions unclear • Facebook and Amazon trying to extract value 23 Platform wars
  • 24. 24 For Apple, the ecosystem is what sells hardware For Amazon, Google and Facebook, the experience on the phone is what drives engagement with all their services Ecosystem is the key leverage point