Gaming
Die SlideShare-Präsentation wird heruntergeladen.
×
Hier ansehen
![](http://img.youtube.com/vi/["aHjzOtDT9D8"]/1.jpg)
Weitere Verwandte Inhalte
Ähnliche Bücher
Kostenlos mit einer 30-tägigen Testversion von Scribd
When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? BEN COUSINS (ALL MARKET INFORMATION CORRECT ON 7TH MARCH 2012)
- WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
- WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
- WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
- WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
- WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
- WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
- SOME DEFINITIONS
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Die, for the purpose of this talk means ‘Significantly smaller market share with no sign of return’
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for their need
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for their need
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for their need
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Market share drops in relative terms, often because a new product massively expands the overall market
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Die, for the purpose of this talk DOES NOT mean ‘The product is never used by anyone ever again’
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
- WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
- THE WEDDING THEORY
- THE WEDDING THEORY
- THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY The Old World
- THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% EA -61.77%
- THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% ATVI -33.34%
- THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% MSFT +24.39%
- THE OLD WORLD ‘Consumer Software, Services & Devices’, ‘Entertainment & Devices’ Division Profit/Loss Lifetime results for this division = $7.807B loss
- THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% SNE -46.42%
- THE OLD WORLD ‘Games’, ‘Networked Products & Services’, ‘Consumer Products & Services’ Results for this division since 2000 = ¥252.9B loss (around $3.1B)
- THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% NTDOY -71.28%
- THE OLD WORLD US Annual sales (hardware and software) 1997-2011 (NPD, billions USD)
- THE OLD WORLD UK Annual sales (hardware and software, billions GBP)
- THE OLD WORLD
- THE OLD WORLD
- THE OLD WORLD
- THE OLD WORLD
- THE OLD WORLD IS LARGE BUT SHRINKING FAST • In summary; • Investors are not showing confidence in the future of large traditional publishers • Sony, Microsoft showing losses for console divisions over the last 10 years • Nintendo in ‘disarray’ • Retail sales dropping year on year since 2009 • Major European retailer Game in serious trouble • Casual & kids games on console and handhelds hit by an unseen force
- THE DEATH OF DEDICATED ELECTRONICS HARDWARE Down 17% Down 42.5% Down 32.6% Down 20.5% Down 20.8%
- THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY The New World
- THE NEW WORLD Top 5 dedicated gaming companies by market cap, August 2008 (millions USD) 123 33 30 26 43
- THE NEW WORLD Top 5 dedicated gaming companies by market cap, March 2012 (millions USD) 123 33 5 8 18
- THE NEW WORLD Audience sizes for games 25 million sales 500 million downloads
- THE NEW WORLD ‘100’ 20 19 Market caps of platform companies (billions USD) 267 495 198
- THE NEW WORLD Combined market caps of platform companies (billions USD) 793 306
- THE NEW WORLD Growth rates of platforms (assumes 70% of iOS are gamers, 50% of FB are gamers, excludes iPod touch sales)
- THE NEW WORLD The Japanese revolution
- THE NEW WORLD IS GROWING VERY FAST • In summary; • Now 3 out of 5 of the world’s largest gaming companies distribute digitally, are freemium focussed • The audience sizes for a hit game has increased 20x on new platforms like FB, iOS and Android • New Mobile/Social platforms are driven by huge companies • In Japan freemium social mobile has already overtaken the traditional business
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE When The Arcades Died, What Came Next?
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research The 1980’s Traditional Retail revenue hovers between 3% and 35% of Arcade
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research The 1990’s Traditional Retail revenue grows steadily from 38% to 166% of Arcade
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research The 2000’s Traditional Retail revenue grows sharply, ending up 17x the size of (declining) Arcade
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research What happened here? The Tipping Point What killed the arcade?
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1980’s •Arcades dominated home experience •Better graphics •Bigger screens •Better controllers
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1980’s •Arcades dominated home experience •Better graphics •Bigger screens •Better controllers
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1980’s •Arcades dominated home experience •Better graphics •Bigger screens •Better controllers
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1990’s • Arcades start much more powerful than home consoles • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start competing with textured 3D arcade games • Sony’s entry into the business - a company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as Naomi system board, less memory
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1990’s • Arcades start much more powerful than home consoles • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start competing with textured 3D arcade games • Sony’s entry into the business - a company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as Naomi system board, less memory
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1990’s • Arcades start much more powerful than home consoles • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start competing with textured 3D arcade games • Sony’s entry into the business - a company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as Naomi system board, less memory
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 2000’s • Home consoles now in parity or above arcades in power • Arcade still have better controllers, bigger screens • Microsoft’s entry into the business - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x Nintendo • Dead arcades - novelty controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 2000’s • Home consoles now in parity or above arcades in power • Arcade still have better controllers, bigger screens • Microsoft’s entry into the business - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x Nintendo • Dead arcades - novelty controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
- THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 2000’s • Home consoles now in parity or above arcades in power • Arcade still have better controllers, bigger screens • Microsoft’s entry into the business - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x Nintendo • Dead arcades - novelty controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
- THE TIPPING POINT • Two big things happened; 1.Bigger companies entered the games business • More marketing clout, grow the overall business 2.Chips got cheap enough and lower power enough • Creating an ‘arcade experience’ in the home, that pulled in the arcade gamers • Home consoles had always been cheaper and more convenient, but these advantages now really mattered • Worth noting arcades still often had bigger screens & always better controllers
- THE NEXT BIG CHANGE ? When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?
- THE NEXT BIG CHANGE When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?
- THE DEATH OF DEDICATED ELECTRONICS HARDWARE Down 17% Down 42.5% Down 32.6% Down 20.5% Down 20.8%
- DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
- • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate • Disruptive tech enters the market • Incumbents don’t take it seriously • It rapidly increases in performance • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
- • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate Large scale businesses computing • Disruptive tech enters the Scientific market computing Personal • Incumbents don’t take it Computer seriously Small business computing • It rapidly increases in performance Hobby computing • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
- • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate AAA Console Games • Disruptive tech enters the market Handheld Games iOS/Android • Incumbents don’t take it devices seriously • It rapidly increases in Kids Games performance Casual Phone Games • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
- We are here • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate AAA Console Games • Disruptive tech enters the market Handheld Games iOS/Android • Incumbents don’t take it devices seriously • It rapidly increases in Kids Games performance Casual Phone Games • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
- DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER My Little Tank (2005)
- DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER Gran Turismo 4 (Polyphony Digital 2005) God of War (Sony Santa Monica 2005)
- DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER Infinity Blade Dungeons (Epic 2012)
- DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER Modern Warfare 3 (Activision 2011)
- WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW? • Two big things are happening; 1.Bigger companies have entered the games business • More marketing clout grows the overall business 2.Chips are getting cheap enough and lower power enough • Creating a ‘console experience’ on the move, pulling in the console gamers • Mobile games have always been cheaper and more convenient, but these advantages now really matter • Worth noting that consoles will still often had bigger screens & always better controllers
- WHAT A STRANGE, MARGINALIZED OPINION!
- JOHN CARMACK “platform wise, you could certainly imagine a future where, instead of having your console, you have your mobile device”
- PHIL HARRISON “If they carry on unrestrained in their growth, then there’s a pretty good chance that Apple will be the games industry”
- MIKE CAPPS
- HIDEO KOJIMA “Gamers should be able to take the experience with them in their living rooms, on the go, when they travel -- wherever they are and whenever they want to play. It should be the same software and the same experience,”
- GABE NEWELL “I suspect Apple will launch a living room product that redefines people's expectations really strongly and the notion of a separate console platform will disappear”
- KOTAKU ‘Tim Cook holds the future of gaming in his hands.’
- CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV!
- CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV! % of the US population who visited the cinema on a weekly basis (Michelle Pautz, Elon University, 2002)
- CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV! Total UK cinema attendance (British Film Institute, Cinema Advertising Association & Rentrack EDI)
- CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV! UK box office cinema revenue as a % of GDP (Bakker 2008 and ONS)
- CINEMA WAS CRUSHED BY TV • The ‘platform holder’ (cinema) didn’t do ok - thousands of cinemas closed down • The ‘content people’ (movie studios/distributors) did ok • Made movies available on the lower-res ‘free to watch’ TV and ‘for hire’ VHS platforms • Games content developers need to do the same - move content to new low-res platforms - or we will suffer the same fate as the cinema
- FOX THEATRE SAN FRANCISCO
- TWITTER: @BENJAMINCOUSINS
