BASF	
  Science	
  Symposium	
  
Smart	
  energy	
  for	
  a	
  sustainable	
  future	
  
9	
  –	
  10	
  March,	
  2015	
...
2	
  
In	
  1898,	
  Sir	
  William	
  Crookes	
  delivers	
  
an	
  address	
  his	
  inaugural	
  lecture	
  as	
  
Pres...
3	
  
Fritz	
  Haber:	
  1918	
   Carl	
  Bosch:	
  1931	
  
Gerhard	
  Ertl:	
  2007	
  
At	
  the	
  beginning	
  of	
  ...
4	
  
“The	
  baWle	
  to	
  feed	
  all	
  of	
  humanity	
  is	
  over	
  ...	
  In	
  the	
  
1970s	
  and	
  1980s	
  ...
5	
  
Norman	
  Borlaug	
  is	
  awarded	
  the	
  Nobel	
  Prize	
  	
  in	
  1970	
  
Borlaug	
  bred	
  disease-­‐
resi...
Source:	
  Food	
  and	
  Agriculture	
  Organiza4on	
  (FAO),	
  United	
  Na4ons	
  
World	
  ProducHon	
  of	
  Grain	
...
7
Today, there are ~7.3 billion people.
By ~2050 we will grow to ~ 9 billion.
Are technological “fixes” merely postponing ...
“Our ability to find and extract fossil fuels continues
to improve, and economically recoverable reservoirs
around the wor...
U.S. Oil Production (1945 – 2012)
U.S. is the biggest producer of oil + nat. gas liquids + ethanol
2013 ~ 7.5 M bbls/day
2...
Potential shale gas and tight oil reservoirs can change the
energy landscape of the Americas, Asia and Europe.
The	
  rest...
With all of the new oil and natural
gas supplies, is the world energy
problem solved?
We have an Energy -
Climate Change p...
12	
  
2014 was the hottest year on record.
14 of the 15 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century.	
  
© 2013 Munich Re
NatCatSERVICE
Weather-related loss events worldwide 1980 – 2013
Number of events
Meteorological	
  
event...
14	
  
Rate	
  of	
  sea	
  level	
  rise	
  
Jan	
  1993	
  –	
  Aug	
  2014	
  
3.2	
  mm/year,	
  
roughly	
  3x	
  fas...
15	
  
Muir Glacier, Alaska
August 31, 2004 	
  August 13, 1941	
  
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
Change in distance between 2 satellites is used to calculate the local gra...
18
Ground water in California measured by the GRACE satellite
Since	
  2011,	
  the	
  Sacramento	
  and	
  San	
  Joaquim...
 25	
  year	
  delay	
  aTer	
  the	
  
onset	
  of	
  smoking	
  
Smoking increases the risk of
•  Lung cancer: 25x
•  Co...
Harbin, China
ParHculate	
  maWer	
  PM2.5	
  (<	
  2.5	
  μm)	
  and	
  PM10	
  are	
  especially	
  deadly.	
  
36%	
  i...
Harbin, China
ParHculate	
  maWer	
  PM2.5	
  (<	
  2.5	
  μm)	
  and	
  PM10	
  are	
  especially	
  deadly.	
  
36%	
  i...
 25	
  year	
  delay	
  aTer	
  the	
  
onset	
  of	
  smoking	
  
The damage already done to our environment may
not be k...
•  Energy trends in fossil energy: oil and natural
gas
•  An epidemiological approach to climate
change
•  How science and...
“The	
  Stone	
  Age	
  came	
  to	
  an	
  end	
  not	
  for	
  a	
  lack	
  of	
  stones	
  
and	
  the	
  oil	
  age	
 ...
25	
  
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
Science and technology can and must
help change the current path we are on.
26	
  
R.	
  van	
  Buskirk,	
  C.	
  Kantner,	
  B.	
  Gerke	
  and	
  S,	
  Chu,	
  Environ.	
  Res.	
  LeW.	
  9	
  114...
27	
  
R.	
  van	
  Buskirk,	
  C.	
  Kantner,	
  B.	
  Gerke	
  and	
  S,	
  Chu,	
  Environ.	
  Res.	
  LeW.	
  9	
  114...
The Model T Ford (1908 – 1927) transformed
transportation by making it “a able”
Henry	
  Ford	
  
4-­‐cylinder	
  2.9	
  l...
29	
  
The Boeing 787 uses 30% of
the fuel of the 707,
carries 70% more passengers.
Its 2 jets have 80% more thrust
than t...
30	
  
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
Science and technology can and must
help change the current path we are on.
31	
  
100	
  meter	
  wind	
  tower	
   2.3	
  MW	
  turbine:	
  93	
  meter	
  diameter	
  
blades,	
  115	
  meters	
  ...
U.S. wind energy costs and installed capacity
(1980 – 2012). Long-term contracts at 3¢/kWh.
New natural gas is 5¢/kWh at $...
Solar Resources in the U.S. Germany and Spain
US Solar PPA Prices Jul 08 – Jul 2014 ($/MWh)
Utility-scale solar energy is Texas is equal to the cost of new
natural gas ...
United States Solar Electricity Generation 1985 – 2013
My time as
U.S. Secretary
of Energy
Solar energy accounts for only ...
36	
  
Solar efficiency of Perovskite solar cells:
3% (2009) in 2009 è 20% (2014)
Perovskite
solar energy
conversion	
  
37	
  
Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
Total cost of lithium ion battery packs for EVs and PHEVs
Tesla	
  Giga	
  Factory	
 ...
Volumetric energy density of Li-ion
batteries (courtesy Panasonic) 18650	
  Panasonic	
  
silicon	
  anode	
  Li-­‐
ion	
 ...
39
Tesla battery uses ~ 250 Wh/kg batteries.
Maximum theoretical energy density (Wh/kg)
85 kWh = 425 kg ~ 1200 lbs ~ $36,0...
$1,000/kW	
  and	
  $160/kWh	
  
10,000	
  cycles	
  (30	
  years)	
  
41	
  
Progress in Batteries and other
forms of energy “storage”
Pump	
  water	
  
when	
  the	
  wind	
  
blows	
  or	
  ...
42	
  
Solar modules and batteries that operate at at a wide range of
temperatures can bring inexpensive electricity for L...
U.S. Electrical Grid System (> 230 kV)
44	
  
China has installed a 2000 km 800 kV DC line. Less than 7%
of the energy is lost in conversion and transmission.
45
High power-high voltage IGBT transistors can revolutionize
HVDV transmission lines and Flexible AC Transmission
Need: i...
A	
  prototype	
  1	
  MW,	
  20	
  kV	
  SiC	
  transistor.	
  (Cree,	
  2013)	
  
Improved high frequency, high
voltage ...
47	
  
350	
  million	
  ]3	
  of	
  natural	
  gas/day	
  are	
  flared	
  in	
  the	
  Bakken	
  formaHon.	
  
A	
  singl...
Statoil,	
  GE,	
  Ferus	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  Fuels:	
  	
  
Sept.	
  2014	
  the	
  expansion	
  of	
  a	
  pilot	
  proj...
Need: portable Gas-to-Liquid platforms powered by
natural gas that would have been flared.
Can we use 30% wall-plug effici...
Commercial uses of CO2
•  EOR	
  +	
  associated	
  sequestraHon	
  
•  Methane	
  coal-­‐bed	
  and	
  hydrate	
  extracH...
53	
  
My challenge to chemists
(Seeking the 21st century “Haber–Bosch” solution)
Liquid chemical energy storage: e.g. use...
54	
  
We need improved methods for splitting
water for H2 and the reduction of captured
CO2 for hydrocarbon production.
•...
55	
  
Octane
Decane
Cetane
Captured
CO2
H2O
?	
  
56	
  
In a world of 50% intermittent wind and
solar energy, there will be significant surplus
electricity.
Even today, ni...
Earthrise	
  from	
  Apollo	
  8	
  (December	
  24,	
  1968)	
  
"We	
  came	
  all	
  this	
  way	
  to	
  explore	
  th...
58
There is an ancient Native American saying:
“We do not inherit the land from our
ancestors, we borrow it from our child...
59
end
Steven Chu at BASF Science Symposium
Steven Chu at BASF Science Symposium
Steven Chu at BASF Science Symposium
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Steven Chu at BASF Science Symposium

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Nobel Prize winner Professor Steven Chu of Stanford University spoke about energy, climate change and transitioning to a sustainable world at the BASF Science Symposium: smart energy for a sustainable future in Ludwigshafen on March 9th, 2015. For more information see https://creator-space.basf.com/content/basf/creatorspace/en/events/symposium-ludwigshafen.past.html

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Steven Chu at BASF Science Symposium

  1. 1. BASF  Science  Symposium   Smart  energy  for  a  sustainable  future   9  –  10  March,  2015   Energy and Climate Change and how to transition to a sustainable world
  2. 2. 2   In  1898,  Sir  William  Crookes  delivers   an  address  his  inaugural  lecture  as   President  of  the  BriHsh  AssociaHon   for  the  Advancement  of  Science.   “It  is  the  chemist  who  must  come  to  the   rescue  of  the  threatened  communiHes.  It  is   through  the  laboratory  that  starvaHon  may   ulHmately  be  turned  to  plenty.”     “England  and  all  civilized  naHons   stand  in  in  deadly  peril  of  not  having   enough  to  eat.”  
  3. 3. 3   Fritz  Haber:  1918   Carl  Bosch:  1931   Gerhard  Ertl:  2007   At  the  beginning  of  the   industrial  revoluHon  there   were  700  M    people.       The  Haber-­‐Bosch  process   enabled  us  to  feed  a   world  that  doubled  in   populaHon.  
  4. 4. 4   “The  baWle  to  feed  all  of  humanity  is  over  ...  In  the   1970s  and  1980s  hundreds  of  millions  of  people  will   starve  to  death  in  spite  of  any  crash  programs   embarked  upon  now.” Prof.  Paul  Ehrlich    Stanford  Biologist   The  Popula+on  Bomb   (1968)  
  5. 5. 5   Norman  Borlaug  is  awarded  the  Nobel  Prize    in  1970   Borlaug  bred  disease-­‐ resistant,  dwarf  strains  of   wheat  with  thick  stems   that  could  support    heavier   kernels.       His  plants  didn’t  collapse   a]er  rapid  growth  spurts   due  to  nitrogen  ferHlizer   used  in  the  poor  soils.    
  6. 6. Source:  Food  and  Agriculture  Organiza4on  (FAO),  United  Na4ons   World  ProducHon  of  Grain  (1961  –  2004)   1960:     Popula4on  =  3  B   2005:   Popula4on  =  6.5  B  
  7. 7. 7 Today, there are ~7.3 billion people. By ~2050 we will grow to ~ 9 billion. Are technological “fixes” merely postponing disaster? High-fertility: 2.5 children Low-fertility 1.6 Medium-fertility: 2.0 children
  8. 8. “Our ability to find and extract fossil fuels continues to improve, and economically recoverable reservoirs around the world are likely to keep pace with the rising demand for decades.” Steven Chu and Arun Majumdar, Nature (2012) Will we run out of oil and natural gas?
  9. 9. U.S. Oil Production (1945 – 2012) U.S. is the biggest producer of oil + nat. gas liquids + ethanol 2013 ~ 7.5 M bbls/day 2014 ~ 8.5 M bbls/day U.S. oil production from tight oil is ~ 4.5 M bbls/day
  10. 10. Potential shale gas and tight oil reservoirs can change the energy landscape of the Americas, Asia and Europe. The  rest  of  the  world  may  have  10  4mes  more  4ght  oil  and  shale  gas   than  the  U.S.  Also:  heavy  oil,  deep  water  oil,  oil  sands  …  
  11. 11. With all of the new oil and natural gas supplies, is the world energy problem solved? We have an Energy - Climate Change problem.
  12. 12. 12   2014 was the hottest year on record. 14 of the 15 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century.  
  13. 13. © 2013 Munich Re NatCatSERVICE Weather-related loss events worldwide 1980 – 2013 Number of events Meteorological   events   (Tropical  storm,   extra-­‐tropical   storm,  convecHve   storm,     local  storm)   Hydrological   events   (Flood,     mass   movement)   Climatological   events   (Extreme   temperature,     drought,  forest   fire)   200 400 600 800 1 000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Number   ©  2014  Münchener  Rückversicherungs-­‐Gesellscha],  Geo  Risks  Research,  NatCatSERVICE  –  As  at  February  2014   88% of World-wide losses were weather related
  14. 14. 14   Rate  of  sea  level  rise   Jan  1993  –  Aug  2014   3.2  mm/year,   roughly  3x  faster  than   1870  –  1940   Recent rate of sea level rise compared to historical record
  15. 15. 15   Muir Glacier, Alaska August 31, 2004  August 13, 1941  
  16. 16. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Change in distance between 2 satellites is used to calculate the local gravity
  17. 17. 18 Ground water in California measured by the GRACE satellite Since  2011,  the  Sacramento  and  San  Joaquim  river  basins  are  losing  15  km3  of   water  each  year.  Half  is  due  to  ground  water  pumping  in  the  Central  Valley.  
  18. 18.  25  year  delay  aTer  the   onset  of  smoking   Smoking increases the risk of •  Lung cancer: 25x •  Coronary heart disease: 2x - 4x •  Stroke: 2x – 4x
  19. 19. Harbin, China ParHculate  maWer  PM2.5  (<  2.5  μm)  and  PM10  are  especially  deadly.   36%  increase  in  lung  cancer  per  10  μg/m3  (The  Lancet  Oncology,  2014)      
  20. 20. Harbin, China ParHculate  maWer  PM2.5  (<  2.5  μm)  and  PM10  are  especially  deadly.   36%  increase  in  lung  cancer  per  10  μg/m3  (The  Lancet  Oncology,  2014)       PM2.5  measurements  at  U.S.  Embassy  in  Beijing  (Jan  2013)   Yearly  average  =  194  μg/m3       Smoking   rooms  in   U.S.   airports  
  21. 21.  25  year  delay  aTer  the   onset  of  smoking   The damage already done to our environment may not be known for a century. How long will CO2 remain in the atmosphere?  
  22. 22. •  Energy trends in fossil energy: oil and natural gas •  An epidemiological approach to climate change •  How science and technology will make clean energy the low cost option. Outline of talk
  23. 23. “The  Stone  Age  came  to  an  end  not  for  a  lack  of  stones   and  the  oil  age  will  end,  but  not  for  a  lack  of  oil.”       -­‐    Sheik  Ahmed  Zaki  Yamani,  former  Saudi  Oil  Minister       We transitioned to better solutions. If we don’t find better solutions, the oil, gas and coal will be used.
  24. 24. 25   Energy efficiency Clean energy sources Science and technology can and must help change the current path we are on.
  25. 25. 26   R.  van  Buskirk,  C.  Kantner,  B.  Gerke  and  S,  Chu,  Environ.  Res.  LeW.  9  114010  (2014)   The effect of appliance standards on total cost and purchase price
  26. 26. 27   R.  van  Buskirk,  C.  Kantner,  B.  Gerke  and  S,  Chu,  Environ.  Res.  LeW.  9  114010  (2014)   The effect of appliance standards on total cost and purchase price Refrigerator  cost  declines  by  28%  for  each  doubling  of   producHon.  Energy  saved  in  the  U.S.  each  year  is  more   than  270  TWh  =  30  nuclear  reactors  operaHng  at  1   GW  24  hours  a  day,  365  days  a  year.  
  27. 27. The Model T Ford (1908 – 1927) transformed transportation by making it “a able” Henry  Ford   4-­‐cylinder  2.9  liter  engine:  20  -­‐22  hp         Ford  3-­‐cylinder  1.0   liter  engine:  123  hp  
  28. 28. 29   The Boeing 787 uses 30% of the fuel of the 707, carries 70% more passengers. Its 2 jets have 80% more thrust than the 4 engines of the 707. Market forces drove fuel economy in airplanes
  29. 29. 30   Energy efficiency Clean energy sources Science and technology can and must help change the current path we are on.
  30. 30. 31   100  meter  wind  tower   2.3  MW  turbine:  93  meter  diameter   blades,  115  meters  high.     Wind  turbines  are  more  reliable,  efficient  and  bigger     The  Wright  Brothers’  first  flight  was  36.6  meters  
  31. 31. U.S. wind energy costs and installed capacity (1980 – 2012). Long-term contracts at 3¢/kWh. New natural gas is 5¢/kWh at $4/MMBtu
  32. 32. Solar Resources in the U.S. Germany and Spain
  33. 33. US Solar PPA Prices Jul 08 – Jul 2014 ($/MWh) Utility-scale solar energy is Texas is equal to the cost of new natural gas at $4/Million Btu! $  /MWh   Wholesale  prices  went  from   19¢  to  5¢/kWh  in  6  years  
  34. 34. United States Solar Electricity Generation 1985 – 2013 My time as U.S. Secretary of Energy Solar energy accounts for only 0.25% of all electricity generated in the U.S. in 2013. U.S. now has ~ 12 GW of installed capacity.
  35. 35. 36   Solar efficiency of Perovskite solar cells: 3% (2009) in 2009 è 20% (2014) Perovskite solar energy conversion  
  36. 36. 37   Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Total cost of lithium ion battery packs for EVs and PHEVs Tesla  Giga  Factory   baYery  pack  cost?  
  37. 37. Volumetric energy density of Li-ion batteries (courtesy Panasonic) 18650  Panasonic   silicon  anode  Li-­‐ ion   4-­‐fold  increase  in  energy  density   since  commercial  introduc4on.     Amprius  720  W/L    
  38. 38. 39 Tesla battery uses ~ 250 Wh/kg batteries. Maximum theoretical energy density (Wh/kg) 85 kWh = 425 kg ~ 1200 lbs ~ $36,000 @ $425/kWh   Yi  Cui  and  I  are  working  on  a  lithium-­‐  sulfur  baWery  that  may  increase   the  energy  density  5x  and  the  charging  rate  10x  of  today’s  baWeries.  
  39. 39. $1,000/kW  and  $160/kWh   10,000  cycles  (30  years)  
  40. 40. 41   Progress in Batteries and other forms of energy “storage” Pump  water   when  the  wind   blows  or  the   sun  shines  
  41. 41. 42   Solar modules and batteries that operate at at a wide range of temperatures can bring inexpensive electricity for LED lighting, cell phones, refrigeration, water purification. Water can be pumped, purified and stored for months.
  42. 42. U.S. Electrical Grid System (> 230 kV)
  43. 43. 44   China has installed a 2000 km 800 kV DC line. Less than 7% of the energy is lost in conversion and transmission.
  44. 44. 45 High power-high voltage IGBT transistors can revolutionize HVDV transmission lines and Flexible AC Transmission Need: improved dielectric materials HVDC undersea and underground power lines.
  45. 45. A  prototype  1  MW,  20  kV  SiC  transistor.  (Cree,  2013)   Improved high frequency, high voltage power electronics for inverters, converters Need:  High  power  –  high  voltage  Diamond  IGBT  transistors.  
  46. 46. 47   350  million  ]3  of  natural  gas/day  are  flared  in  the  Bakken  formaHon.   A  single  natural  gas  burner  is  as  loud  as  a  commercial  jet  engine.  
  47. 47. Statoil,  GE,  Ferus  Natural  Gas  Fuels:     Sept.  2014  the  expansion  of  a  pilot  project  to  capture  flare  gas  to   power  Statoil's  six  drill  rigs  and  one  frac  fleet  in  North  Dakota.    
  48. 48. Need: portable Gas-to-Liquid platforms powered by natural gas that would have been flared. Can we use 30% wall-plug efficient lasers or other methods operating on natural gas power to drive GTL reactions?
  49. 49. Commercial uses of CO2 •  EOR  +  associated  sequestraHon   •  Methane  coal-­‐bed  and  hydrate  extracHon  +  associated   sequestraHon   •  Enhanced  geothermal  energy     If we can capture carbon dioxide at < $15/ton, many opportunities in the capture and utilization of CO2 may become economically attractive.
  50. 50. 53   My challenge to chemists (Seeking the 21st century “Haber–Bosch” solution) Liquid chemical energy storage: e.g. use excess night time electricity to split water into H2 and O2 and combine with CO2 captured from power, cement and steel production to make liquid fuels that can be shipped and stored anywhere in the world.
  51. 51. 54   We need improved methods for splitting water for H2 and the reduction of captured CO2 for hydrocarbon production. •  Electrochemical conversion •  Photochemical conversion •  Biological conversion
  52. 52. 55   Octane Decane Cetane Captured CO2 H2O ?  
  53. 53. 56   In a world of 50% intermittent wind and solar energy, there will be significant surplus electricity. Even today, night-time electricity sell for ~ 0.5 - 2 cents/kWh In a world when renewable surplus electricity becomes very inexpensive, can we engineer industrial chemical processing to take advantage of this intermittent energy?
  54. 54. Earthrise  from  Apollo  8  (December  24,  1968)   "We  came  all  this  way  to  explore  the  moon  and   the  most  important  thing  is  that  we  discovered   the  Earth.”   Bill  Anders,    Apollo  8  Astronaut   57  
  55. 55. 58 There is an ancient Native American saying: “We do not inherit the land from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.”
  56. 56. 59 end

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