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How to Think like a Strategist

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How to think like a strategist on 3 levels: 1) general strategy 2) business strategy 3) product strategy. Using the "Playing to win" framework, the "Data, Diagnosis, Direction, Do next" cycle developed by Roger Fisher (famous for "Getting to yes"), the behaviour model by B. J. Fogg, and other tools.

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How to Think like a Strategist

  1. 1. How to Think Like a Strategist The „Playing to Win” Framework and Other Tools
  2. 2. Message as a Six Word Story + Motto (Instead of an Executive Summary) Playing to Win 2 Great Products Require Great Strategy Choices http://www.sixwordmemoirs.com/ Iwapo unataka kwenda haraka, nenda peke yako. If you want to go quickly, go alone. Iwapo mnataka kwenda mbali, nendeni pamoja. If you want to go far, go together. Allagedly African proverb, transtated back from English to Swahili
  3. 3. Who Can Think Strategically? Playing to Win 3 You will understand the question better later on:
  4. 4. Why You Should Think Stratigically #organization, #leadership_style, #creative_collaboration Playing to Win 4 https://vimeo.com/109611584 Spotify TED + BCG: How should a CEO lead? https://labs.spotify.com/2014/03/27/spotify-engineering-culture-part-1/
  5. 5. The Design Principle Requires Strategy Choices Playing to Win 5 How to Reach the Centre from Almost There: •   Tweak the business model* •   Look for better technical solution •   Enhance design https://www.ideo.com/about/  Competition  Risk  Scarce resources Choose  Where to Play  How to Win Based on tested hypotheses    * http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/
  6. 6. Disclaimer #1: Nothing in this Presentation was Invented by Me Playing to Win 6
  7. 7. Disclaimer #2: Strategy Frameworks Go Only So Far as The 2 Circles Playing to Win 7 How to draw an owl (SethGodin) The problem with most business and leadership advice is that it's a little like this. The two circles aren't the point. Getting the two circles right is a good idea, but lots of people manage that part. No, the difficult part is learning to see what an owl looks like. Drawing an owl involves thousands of small decisions, each based on the answer to just one question, "what does the owl look like?" If you can't see it (in your mind, not with your eyes), you can't draw it. There are hundreds of thousands of bullet points and rules of thumb about how to lead people, how to start and run a company, how to market, how to sell and how to do work that matters. Most of them involve drawing two circles. (HT to Stefano for the owl). Before any of these step by step approaches work, it helps a lot to learn to see. When someone does this job well, what does it look like? When you've created a relationship that works, what does it feel like? Incubator programs and coaching work their best not when they teach people which circles to draw, but when they engage in interactive learning after you've gone ahead and drawn your circle. The iterative process of drawing and erasing and drawing some more is how we learn to see the world.
  8. 8. Disclaimer #3: No Checklist, a Toolbox Version #1 for Marketing people Playing to Win 8 You don’t have to use all these tools all the time. Use them like tools in IDEOs Design Thinking Toolkit: https://www.ideo.com/work/human-centered-design-toolkit/
  9. 9. Disclaimer #3: No Checklist, a Toolbox Version #2 for IT people Playing to Win 9 You don’t have to use all these tools all the time. Use them like importable modules are used in programming languages, eg.: Python’s basic toolset doesn’t contain the value of pi = 3.14... From the „math” module you can import pi with limited precision If you need more digits (say 1000), you can use a module designed for arbitrary precision floating point calculations
  10. 10. The 3 Levels of Thinking Strategically Strategy in General Business Strategy Product Strategy Playing to Win 10
  11. 11. Strategy in General Playing to Win 11
  12. 12. An Emotionally Inspiring -- and Logically Somewhat Vague Approach Playing to Win 12 https://www.ted.com/talks/simon_sinek_how_great_leaders_inspire_action  What is this approach very good for?  What is it not so good for? (Hints: #leadership, #inspire_action, #feelings)  Neocortex WHAT  Rational, analytical thinking  Language  [ Kahneman: slow thinking System 2]  Limbic brain  WHY and HOW  Feelings ‒ trust, loyalty  Behavior  No capacity for language  [ Kahneman: fast thinking System 1] See also: Why-How Laddering https://dschool.stanford.edu/wp-content/themes/dschool/method-cards/why-how-laddering.pdf Related: 5 ThingsYou Didn't Know AboutApple's '1984' Super BowlAd (Like How It Almost Didn't Air)
  13. 13. Strategy is a Stage of Thinking & Learning Playing to Win 13  Source of claritiy: one border crossing at each step  Optional step #0: all logical possibilities for Do next http://www.amazon.com/Getting-It-Done-Youre-Charge/dp/0887309585 The 4 Stages of the Thinking Process Learning = Thinking + Doing Sometimes we start here – which can be OK, if we proceed to the next cycle. If you start here, you need to reverse engineer you strategy = test its underlying hypotheses
  14. 14. Problem solving in „Getting to Yes” Playing to Win 14 Data Diagnosis Direction Do next Future RealWorldTheory Now     http://www.williamury.com/books/getting-to-yes/
  15. 15. Problem solving in „Getting to Yes” Playing to Win 15 Data Diagnosis Direction Do next Future RealWorldTheory Now    
  16. 16. Learning = thinking + doing + thinking + … Playing to Win 16         http://www.amazon.com/Getting-It-Done-Youre-Charge/dp/0887309585
  17. 17. A viable strategy requires correct diagnosis: a simplistic textbook example Playing to Win 17 Diagnosis => Direction = ? Data: the extent of fire damage ~ # of firefighters on the scene
  18. 18. Fire damage vs firefighters – diagnosis A or B? Playing to Win 18 Data Diagnosis Direction Do next Future RealWorldTheory  Fire damage ~ # of FFs on the scene Now  Diagnosis A: # of FFs => severity of damage  Diagnosis B: severity of fire => # of FFs & damage  Direction A: send less FFs  Direction B: BAU  Do next A: next time no FFs  Do next B: BAU    
  19. 19. Fire damage vs firefighters – diagnosis A or B? Playing to Win 19 Data Diagnosis Direction Do next Future RealWorldTheory  Fire damage ~ # of FFs on the scene Now  Diagnosis A: # of FFs => severity of damage  Diagnosis B: severity of fire => # of FFs & damage  Direction A: send less FFs  Direction B: BAU  Do next A: next time no FFs  Do next B: BAU    
  20. 20. Food for Thought Playing to Win 20 1) Compare the 4D matrix with the Lean Cycle framework: 2) What dimension would make sense to add (in addition to Time = now vs future, Reality = real world vs theory) when we wnat to think about strategy?
  21. 21. Business Strategy Playing to Win 21
  22. 22. Steve Jobs Discussing „Where to Play” and „How to Win” with Professional Workstations Playing to Win 22 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNfRgSlhIW0
  23. 23. A Specific Business Strategy Framework: Direction  Playing to Win Playing to Win 23
  24. 24. Where to Play and How to Win Playing to Win 24  Choices also indicate options not to be chosen  Consistent horizontally and vertically  Based on tested hypotheses  Embrace inherent risk of business http://www.amazon.com/Playing-Win-Strategy-Really-Works-ebook/dp/B00AJVJ1HI/ The „Heart” of Strategy
  25. 25. Where to Play and How to Win Playing to Win 25 http://www.amazon.com/Playing-Win-Strategy-Really-Works-ebook/dp/B00AJVJ1HI/ The „Heart” of Strategy Sometimes overlooked. Famous mgmt systems include eg. :  P&G’s codified Brand Building Framework  Toyota Production System  Apple’s DRI system  Holacracy Revenues Costs Message to employees, investors, competition Products + Infrastructure + Mktg / sales machine + Analytics + ... Leadership style + Strategy creation + Collaboration + KPIs + Decision making + Talent mgmt + Incentives + ...
  26. 26. A Canvas for Strategy Workshops Playing to Win 26 http://matthewemay.com/introducing-the-play-to-win-strategy-canvas-2-0/
  27. 27. The Big Lie of Strategic Planning #1 [Strategic planning] may be an excellent way to cope with fear of the unknown, but fear and discomfort are an essential part of strategy making. In fact, if you are entirely comfortable with your strategy, there’s a strong chance it isn’t very good. You’re probably stuck in one or more of the traps I’ll discuss in this article. You need to be uncomfortable and apprehensive: True strategy is about placing bets and making hard choices. The objective is not to eliminate risk but to increase the odds of success. Comfort Trap 1: Strategic Planning The subtle slide from strategy to planning occurs because planning is a thoroughly doable and comfortable exercise. Comfort Trap 2: Cost-Based Thinking [T]he predictability of costs is fundamentally different from the predictability of revenue. Planning can’t and won’t make revenue magically appear, and the effort you spend creating revenue plans is a distraction from the strategist’s much harder job: finding ways to acquire and keep customers. Comfort Trap 3: Self-Referential Strategy Frameworks [The resource-based view (RBV) of the firm] holds that the key to a firm’s competitive advantage is the possession of valuable, rare, inimitable, and non-substitutable capabilities. [...] The problem, of course, is that capabilities themselves don’t compel a customer to buy. Only those that produce a superior value equation for a particular set of customers can do that. Playing to Win 27 https://hbr.org/2014/01/the-big-lie-of-strategic-planning
  28. 28. The Big Lie of Strategic Planning #2 Escaping the Traps Rule 1: Keep the strategy statement simple. Two choices determine success: the where-to-play decision (which specific customers to target) and the how-to-win decision (how to create a compelling value proposition for those customers). Rule 2: Recognize that strategy is not about perfection. [G]iven that strategy is primarily about revenue rather than cost, perfection is an impossible standard. At its very best, therefore, strategy shortens the odds of a company’s bets. Rule 3: Make the logic explicit. The only sure way to improve the hit rate of your strategic choices is to test the logic of your thinking: For your choices to make sense, what do you need to believe about customers, about the evolution of your industry, about competition, about your capabilities? It is critical to write down the answers to those questions, because the human mind naturally rewrites history and will declare the world to have unfolded largely as was planned rather than recall how strategic bets were actually made and why. If the logic is recorded and then compared to real events, managers will be able to see quickly when and how the strategy is not producing the desired outcome and will be able to make necessary adjustments. Playing to Win 28 https://hbr.org/2014/01/the-big-lie-of-strategic-planning
  29. 29. 6 of the Most Common Strategy Traps • The do-it-all strategy: failing to make choices, and making everything a priority. Remember, strategy is choice. • The Don Quixote strategy: attacking competitive “walled cities” or taking on the strongest competitor first, head-to-head. Remember, where to play is your choice. Pick somewhere you can have a chance to win. • The Waterloo strategy: starting wars on multiple fronts with multiple competitors at the same time. No company can do everything well. If you try to do so, you will do everything weakly. • The something-for-everyone strategy: attempting to capture all consumer or channel or geographic or category segments at once. Remember, to create real value, you have to choose to serve some constituents really well and not worry about the others. • The dreams-that-never-come-true strategy: developing high-level aspirations and mission statements that never get translated into concrete where-to-play and how-to-win choices, core capabilities, and management systems. Remember that aspirations are not strategy. Strategy is the answer to all five questions in the choice cascade. • The program-of-the-month strategy: settling for generic industry strategies, in which all competitors are chasing the same customers, geographies, and segments in the same way. The choice cascade and activity system that supports these choices should be distinctive. The more your choices look like those of your competitors, the less likely you will ever win. Playing to Win 29
  30. 30. Where to Play: Citizens of 2 Worlds Extremistan vs Mediocristan Playing to Win 30 MODERATE EXTREME How to achieve Win – Win? https://www.facebook.com/events/927274840643068/ http://magyarnarancs.hu/egotripp/maga-itt-a-tanctanar-81841 risk Smart to take Telcos vs Travels Inside Mediocristan The Strange Country of Extremistan
  31. 31. Zappos Founder about Poker Learnings Playing to Win 31 [Where to Play]  Table selection is the most important decisionyou can make.  It's okay to switch tables if you discover it's too hard to win at your table.  If there are too many competitors (some irrational or inexperienced), even if you're the best it's a lot harder to win.  Don't play games that you don't understand, even if you see lots of other people making money from them.  Figure out the game when the stakes aren't high. [How to Win]  Act weak when strong, act strong when weak. Know when to bluff.  Remember that it's a long-term game. You will win or lose individual hands or sessions, but it's what happens in the long term that matters.  You need to adjust your style of play throughout the night as the dynamics of the game change. Be flexible.  Differentiate yourself. Do the opposite of what the rest of the table is doing.  Hope is not a good plan.  Don't let yourself go "on tilt." It's much more cost-effective to take a break, walk around, or leave the game for the night. http://deliveringhappiness.com/what-poker-taught-tony-hsieh-about-business/
  32. 32. Your Strategy Needs a Stretegy Playing to Win 32 The exploration versus exploitation trade-off is at the heart of all business strategy. https://www.bcgperspectives.com/yourstrategyneedsastrategy
  33. 33. Where to Play and How to Win, an Alternate Approach: Stakeholder Analysis Identify which stakeholders you depend on for success •Customers •Supplyers •Employees •Shareholders •Etc Recognize what you want from your stakeholders •Sales and revenue growth from customers •Productivity and innovation from employees •Quality goods and services at the right price from suppliers Recognize what your stakeholders want from you = strategic factors (example: what ship operators want from a port) •Port capability (suitability for a ship’s size and freight) •Freight availability (to pick up on the return leg) •Congestion (speed of unloading and turnaround time in the port) •Location (which affects “steaming time,” or time between destinations) •Price (port charges for docking and remaining moored) Playing to Win 33 https://hbr.org/2014/11/a-list-of-goals-is-not-a-strategy
  34. 34. Product Strategy Playing to Win 34
  35. 35. Is Your Product a „Vitamin” or „Painkiller?” Playing to Win 35 http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736
  36. 36. Is Your Product a „Vitamin” or „Painkiller?” Playing to Win 36 http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736  PRO: Pains are usually common and easy to identify  CON: once pain has gone, no room for further value creation  CON: Imagination needed to comprehend benefits  PRO: infinite room for value creation
  37. 37. Usually Both, in Varying Degree Playing to Win 37 http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736 Also looks good Also gives peace of mind
  38. 38. Product = Combination of Vitamin and Painkiller Features Playing to Win 38 http://blog.strategyzer.com/posts/2015/2/19/5-common-mistakes-to-avoid-when-using-the-value-proposition-canvas Outside of our control Common mistake: Creating your Customer Profile through the lens of your value proposition Within our control
  39. 39. Different Kinds of Benefits Playing to Win 39 Painkillers Vitamins
  40. 40. How to Win = How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition Playing to Win 40 http://www.behaviormodel.org/
  41. 41. How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition Playing to Win 41 http://www.behaviormodel.org/ Challenge Seekers High Extreme Sales SweetSpot Low Extreme Comfort Zone Seekers
  42. 42. How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition Playing to Win 42 http://www.behaviormodel.org/   ??? ??? Trigger = ???
  43. 43. How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition Playing to Win 43 http://www.behaviormodel.org/   Brand ? Value Prop? Content? CEX ? Education? Trigger = MarComm? Discount ? - 
  44. 44. How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition Playing to Win 44 http://www.behaviormodel.org/   Brand ? Value Prop? Content? CEX ? Education? Trigger = MarComm? Discount ? -  BJ Fogg: ROI(Changing Ability) >> ROI(Changing Motivation) You should make it easy for customers to do WHAT THEY ALREADY WANT TO DO  Nir Eyal (Hooked) External vs Internal Triggers Hook your users via INTERNAL TRIGGERS, VARIABLE REWARD and INVESTMENT
  45. 45. How to Change Customer Behavior More Successfully than Competition Playing to Win 45 http://www.behaviormodel.org/   6 Simplicity Factors:  Time  Money  Physical Effort  Brain Cycles  Social Deviance  Non-routine Core Motivators  + Pleasure / - Pain  + Hope / - Fear  + Social Acceptance / - Rejection See Job-to-be-done, Purpose Brands by Clayton Christensen http://www.wsj.com/articles/S B113323520565808847
  46. 46. The Hooked Model to Implement Internal Triggers, Reward and Investment Playing to Win 46 http://www.nirandfar.com/hooked VITAMIN  PAINKILLER
  47. 47. Product vs Brand Playing to Win 47 Brand image is not always under your control
  48. 48. Deep Dive Material Playing to Win 48
  49. 49. 3 vs 4 Step Thinking / Learning Cycle Playing to Win 49 http://theleanstartup.com/principles
  50. 50. 3 vs 4 Step Thinking / Learning Cycle Playing to Win 50 Diagnosis Direction http://theleanstartup.com/principles Do Next
  51. 51. Why-How Laddering Playing to Win 51 https://dschool.stanford.edu/wp-content/themes/dschool/method-cards/why-how-laddering.pdf 
  52. 52. Mediocristan vs Extemistan Playing to Win 52
  53. 53. Mediocristan vs Extremistan Playing to Win 53
  54. 54. 54 „A strategy that only works if competitors continue to do exactly what they are already doing is a dangerous strategy indeed.” Playing to Win
  55. 55. Playing to Win: Making Stratey Choices Playing to Win 55   https://hbr.org/2012/09/bringing-science-to-the-art-of-strategy
  56. 56. Questions for Reverse-Engineering (Step #3) Playing to Win 56
  57. 57. Reverse Engineering Example from P&G Playing to Win 57
  58. 58. The First Question to Ask of Any Strategy Playing to Win 58 So do a little test of your strategy before committing to it. Ask:  Is the opposite stupid on its face?  Have most of my competitors made the same choice as me? If the answers are “yes,” you have more work to do to have a smart strategy rather than just a non-stupid one. https://hbr.org/2015/05/the-first-question-to-ask-of-any-strategy
  59. 59. Example #1: Procter & Gamble What is our winning aspiration? • For Oil of Olay, it was to become a leading skin care brand again. Where will we play? • The Oil of Olay brand stayed with its mass market retailers (e.g., Target and Wal-Mart) rather than the prestige stores (e.g., Macy’s). But it positioned itself as a "masstige" product — higher end (and higher priced) than the traditional mass market beauty product. How will we win? • Among Oil of Olay’s winning strategies was producing a better anti-aging skin care product — a product at the right price (e.g., not too low) that would entice the prestige customer base. What capabilities must be in place? • Oil of Olay, for example, was able to leverage P&G’s strengths in consumer understanding and brand building. What management systems are required? • Oil of Olay was also able to leverage P&G’s systems as well as its channel and partner systems. Playing to Win 59
  60. 60. Example #2: Vodafone Group Playing to Win 60 How to Win:  Worry-Free data usage with Red plans  Monthly fee = stable revenue stream, fixed customers pay typically monthly fee  Broad coverage, a reliable connection, increasing speeds and data capacity, content, payment services Capabilities:  Project Spring: network development  Service Design  International brand  India: more small-scale shops than competitors Mgmt System:  The Vodafone Way, Code of Conduct http://www.vodafone.com/content/annualreport/annualreport15/assets/pdf/full_annual_report_2015.pdf
  61. 61. Strategy Under Uncertainty: Strategic Postures Playing to Win 61 https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
  62. 62. Players and strategies in the TIME industry 62 Strategic Choices in Converging Industries TIME = Telco, Info tech, Media, Entertainment Playing to Win
  63. 63. The Strategy Map (from Business Model Generation) 63Playing to Win
  64. 64. Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos Playing to Win 64 https://www.tmforum.org/tm-forum-frameworx/browse-clickable-model/ https://workflowy.com/s/2sJTXT54lA
  65. 65. Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos Playing to Win 65 Decision  Commit
  66. 66. Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos Playing to Win 66 Product & Offer Portfolio Planning processes develop strategies for products at the portfolio level. The decision is made as to which product types the enterprise wants or needs to offer, and how it plans to enter or grow in these sectors. This will be done based on multiple inputs: including Enterprise Strategies, Market Research and Market Analysis.
  67. 67. Business (as opposed to Technical) Strategy Domains Strategic & Enterprise Planning •The Strategic & Enterprise Planning process grouping focuses on the processes required to develop the strategies and plans for the service provider enterprise. •This process grouping includes the discipline of Strategic Planning that determines the business and focus of the enterprise, including which markets the enterprise will address, what financial requirements must be met, what acquisitions may enhance the enterprise's financial or market position, etc. •Enterprise Planning develops and coordinates the overall plan for the business working with all key units of the enterprise. These processes drive the mission and vision of the enterprise. Market Strategy & Policy •Market Strategy & Policy processes enable the development of a strategic view of an enterprise’s existing and desired market-place, activities and aims. •Market segmentation and analysis is performed, to determine an enterprise’s target and addressable markets, along with the development of marketing strategies for each market segment or set of target customers. •The decision is made as to which markets the enterprise wants or needs to be in, and how it plans to enter or grow in these markets and market segments. •This will be achieved through multiple inputs: including Enterprise Strategies, Market Research, Market Analysis. Product & Offer Portfolio Planning •Product & Offer Portfolio Planning processes develop strategies for products at the portfolio level. •The decision is made as to which product types the enterprise wants or needs to offer, and how it plans to enter or grow in these sectors. •This will be done based on multiple inputs: including Enterprise Strategies, Market Research and Market Analysis Playing to Win 67

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