The future of work and artisanal cheese
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"When robots can do every job better than humans, what's left for us?" Robots promise to make perfect products, drive perfectly well, cook perfect meals. In our future, perfection will be commonplace, imperfection rare. What will be rare will be the human-made, the artisanal. Does our post-work future lie in making artisanal cheese? If it does, who will eat it all?
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The future of work and artisanal cheese
- 1. Artisanal Cheese and the Future of Work azeem.azhar@exponentialview.co @azeem
- 2. www.exponentialview.co Gaspard Clair Français Marie-Riche de Prony 1791 Task: Mapping France after the revolution
- 3. www.exponentialview.co Gaspard Clair Français Marie-Riche de Prony 1791 Task: Mapping France after the revolution Approach: Hire human computers and store data in cache
- 6. www.exponentialview.co Computers can catch up with ‘human abilities’
- 7. www.exponentialview.co Computers can catch up with ‘human abilities’ AI system LipNet 93.4% of words correctly Human lip-readers 52.3% of words correctly
- 8. www.exponentialview.co Computers can catch up with ‘human abilities’ Microsoft speech recognition error rates 5.8% Human speech recognition error rates 5.9%
- 9. www.exponentialview.co Computers can catch up with ‘human abilities’ Sketch-a-Net identified type of bird in sketches 42.5% of the time Humans identified type of bird in sketches 24.8% of the time
- 10. www.exponentialview.co Predictions of current automation 47% of US jobs are at 'high risk' of automation in the next 1-2 decades Frey and Osborne, 2013 Typists, personal assistants, bank and post office clerks, assemblers are between 85-99% probability of automation; there is 1% probability nurses, teachers, educators will be replaced. Deloitte, The Impact of Technology on Jobs in the UK, 2013 35% of UK jobs are at 'high risk' of automation in the next 1-2 decades Deloitte, The Future of Work, 2017
- 12. www.exponentialview.co The ATM (didn’t) steal my job
- 13. www.exponentialview.co The Lump of Labour Fallacy
- 14. www.exponentialview.co But the picture is mixed
- 15. www.exponentialview.co Labour market shifts In areas exposed to industrial robots both employment and wages decline in robust and significant manner [between 1990 and 2007] One more robot per thousand workers reduces aggregate employment to population ratio by about 0.34 percentage points Acemoglu and Restreppo, 2017
- 16. www.exponentialview.co Employees to support $5bn in revenues 0 1 3 4 5 6 Blockbuster (1) Blockbuster (2) Netflix 90k 59k 2k
- 17. www.exponentialview.co The dematerialising company 0 7.5 15 22.5 30 GM (1979) Microsoft (2015) Facebook (2015) Rev/employee Mktcap/employee
- 20. www.exponentialview.co A world where computers can do everything better
- 21. www.exponentialview.co Automated perfection will be common place, human imperfection will be relatively scarcer
- 22. www.exponentialview.co The human-made will be valuable because it is rare
- 23. www.exponentialview.co The Lump of Labour Fallacy
- 26. www.exponentialview.co Mass production of perfect
- 28. www.exponentialview.co But is there enough for an artisan economy? 🙋🧀 🧀 Perfect Human No Yes Yes No Experiential, discretionary, intimate High risk, reliable, repetitive 🧀 🧀🧀♂️ 👬 🌴 💉 👮🧀 ✈️ 📚
- 29. www.exponentialview.co The Lump of Labour Fallacy
- 32. www.exponentialview.co Mass production of perfect
- 34. www.exponentialview.co de Prony’s cheese makers?