IBM Watson: How it Works, and What it means for Society beyond winning Jeopardy!

sBD07
IBM Watson: How it Works
and What it Means for Society
Beyond Winning Jeopardy!

Tony Pearson
IBM Master Inventor and Senior
Managing Consultant

#IBMEDGE © 2012 IBM Corporation

In 2011, the IBM Watson computer was
able to beat the top-earning human
winners on the trivia game-show
“Jeopardy!” Presenter Tony Pearson,
author of "How to Build Your Own
Watson Jr. in Your Basement," will
explain how the IBM Watson system
was put together, how it works, and
what examples of text mining and big
data analytics means for society as we
apply technology to meet
tomorrow's challenges.


Sessions -- Tony Pearson
• Monday
– 1:00pm Storing Archive Data for Compliance Challenges
– 4:15pm IBM Watson: What it Means for Society
• Tuesday
– 4:15pm Using Social Media: Birds of a Feather (BOF)
• Wednesday
– 9:00am Data Footprint Reduction: IBM Storage options
– 2:30pm IBM's Storage Strategy in the Smarter Computing era
– 4:15pm IBM SONAS and the Cloud Storage Taxonomy
• Thursday
– 9:00am IBM Watson: What it Means for Society
– 10:30am Tivoli Storage Productivity Center Overview
– 5:30pm IBM Edge “Free for All” hosted by Scott Drummond

3

Today’s Information Challenge

Data volume is expanding at an incredible rate
…Data will grow 800% in the next five years
…Unstructured data growing faster than structured

Data is getting more social
…20M articles on Wikipedia
…30B pieces of Facebook content are shared monthly
…There are 156M public blogs

An estimated 2 billion people are now on the Web
… and a trillion connected objects – cars, appliances,
cameras, roadways, pipelines

4

Dying of Thirst in an Ocean of Data

90% 80% 20%
of the world’s data of the world’s amount of available
was created in the data today is data traditional
last two years unstructured systems leverages

1 in 2 83% 54%
Business leaders don’t CIO’s cited BI and analytics Companies use
have access to data as part of their visionary analytics for
they need plan competitive advantage

Source: GigaOM, Software Group, IBM Institute for Business Value"
5

What if an enterprise had all the
answers it needs to succeed?

Can we design a computing
system that rivals a human’s
ability to retrieve, analyze and
interpret vast amounts of
information?

6

The Jeopardy! Challenge:
A compelling and notable way to drive and measure the technology of
automatic Question Answering along 5 Key Dimensions

$200 $1000
If you're standing, it's the The first person mentioned
direction you should look to by name in ‘The Man in the 1. Broad Domain
check out the wainscoting. Iron Mask’ is this hero of a 2. Complex Language
previous book by the same
3. High Precision
author.
4. Accurate Confidence
5. High Speed

$600 $2000
This actor, Audrey’s husband
In cell division, mitosis
from 1954 to 1968, directed
splits the nucleus &
her as Rima the bird girl in
cytokinesis splits this ‘Green Mansions’
liquid cushioning the
nucleus

7

The Plan: Compete against Humans
to Demonstrate Technology

8

Do you Remember IBM Deep Blue?

•Chess
– A finite, mathematically well-defined search space
– Limited number of moves and states
– All the symbols are completely grounded in the
mathematical rules of the game

•Human Language
– Words by themselves convey different meanings
– Only grounded in human cognition
– Words navigate, align and communicate an infinite
space of intended meaning
– Computers can not ground words to human
experiences to derive meaning

9

Why is it so hard for computers to
understand humans?
Structured Data Unstructured Data

Physicist Birth Place “One day, from among his city
Where was A. Einstein Ulm views of Ulm, Otto chose a
water color to send to Albert
Einstein N. Bohr Copenhagen Einstein as a remembrance of
born? M. Curie Warsaw Einstein´s birthplace”
Source: Spreadsheet, Database, etc. Source: http://www.schaeffenacker-ulm.de/en/otto.html

Person Organization

L. Gerstner IBM “If leadership is an art then
surely Jack Welch has proved
Welch ran J. Welch GE himself a master painter during
this? W. Gates Microsoft his tenure at GE”

Source: Jack Welch and the GE Way, Robert Slater
Source: Spreadsheet, Database, etc.
Source: IBM Research

10

Informed Decision Making:
Search vs. Expert Q&A
Expert
Understands Question
Decision Maker
Asks NL Question Produces Possible Answers & Evidence

Analyzes Evidence, Computes Confidence
Considers Answer & Evidence

Delivers Response, Evidence & Confidence

Decision Maker
Has Question Search Engine

Distills to 2-3 Keywords Finds Documents containing Keywords

Reads Documents, Finds Matches Delivers Documents based on Popularity

Finds & Analyzes Evidence

11
11

Computers in SciFi Movies…
Lots of Lights and Cardboard!
IBM Watson….Lots of Work!

12

Unstructured Information
Management Architecture (UIMA)
To date, UIMA is the only industry standard for content analytics.
Developed by IBM, it is now an OASIS standard, with source code
for reference implementation kept by Apache Software Foundation.

Question 1000’s of
100s Possible 100,000’s scores from many simultaneous
Pieces of Evidence Text Analysis Algorithms
100s sources Answers
Multiple
Interpretations

Question & Final Confidence
Question Hypothesis Hypothesis and
Topic Synthesis Merging &
Decomposition Generation Evidence Scoring
Analysis Ranking

Hypothesis Hypothesis and Evidence
Generation Scoring
Answer &
Confidence
...

13

Answering Precision, circa 2006
Each dot represents an actual historical human Jeopardy! game

Winning Human
Winning Human
Performance
Performance
Grand Champion
Grand Champion
Computers, circa 2006
Computers, circa 2006 Human
Human
Performance
Performance

14

DeepQA: Progress in Answering
IBM Watson
Precision Playing in the Winners Cloud

v0.8 11/10

V0.7 04/10

v0.6 10/09
v0.5 05/09
v0.4 12/08
v0.3 08/08

v0.2 05/08
v0.1 12/07

Baseline 12/06

15

Precision / Confidence & Speed
• Deep Analytics – Combining many analytics in a
novel architecture, we achieved very high levels of
Precision and Confidence over a huge variety of
content.

• Speed – By optimizing Watson’s computation for
Jeopardy! on 2,880 POWER7 processing cores we
went from 2 hours per question on a single CPU to an
average of just 3 seconds.

• Results – in 55 real-time sparring games against
former Tournament of Champion Players in 2010,
Watson put on a very competitive performance in all
games -- placing 1st in 71% of the them!
16

IBM Watson vs. Wolfram Alpha

Source: http://www.quora.com/IBM-Watson/Whats-the-system-architecture-of-the-IBM-Watson


Real-Time Game Configuration
Insulated and
Clue Grid Self-Contained

Human Player
1

Decisions to Watson’s
Buzz and Bet
QA Engine
Clue &
Strategy
Category
Watson’s 2,880
Jeopardy! Game IBM POWER7
Game Controller Compute
Control Answers & Cores
Text-to-Speech
System Confidences
15 TB of
Memory

Human Player
2 Analysis of natural
language content
equivalent to 1 Million
Books
Clues, Scores & Other Game Data

18

IBM Watson Components
10 Frames of
Hardware:
• 88 Compute nodes
Decisions to
• 2 Storage nodes
Clue &
Buzz and Bet Category • 4 SAS disk shelves
Strategy • 10GbE Network
Watson’s Watson’s • 80 TeraFLOPS
Game QA Engine
Controller Software:
Text-to-Speech Answers & 2,880
Confidences IBM POWER7 • SLES 11 Linux
Compute • Clustered NFS
Cores • GPFS file system
Avatar - Voice synthesis,
15 TB of • Hadoop, UIMA-AS
Apple Mac strategies for betting,
DRAM memory • 700 KLOC Java
notebook buzzing in, clue
• 300 KLOC C++
selection &
IBM Power750
exchanging info with
servers (POWER7)
Jeopardy Computers
Windows 7
Lenovo desktop
19

Storage in IBM Watson
16 TB of DRAM memory • Sources
– Encyclopedias
– Dictionaries
– Books and Web pages
– Quotations
– Wire News
2 IBM Power750 servers
• Clustered NFS – Knowledge Bases
• IBM GPFS file system – Lexical Database of English

• Test and Training Data
4 IBM EXP 12S disk shelves – J! Archive
• 48 x 450GB SAS drives
• 10.4 TB of RAID-1 space
• 1 TB of unstructured data

On February 14-16, 2011, IBM Watson changed history, introducing a
system that rivaled a human’s ability to answer questions posed in
natural language with speed, accuracy and confidence.

Watson Wins!
Largest Jeopardy! in 5 years
34.5M Jeopardy! Viewers
1.3B+ Impressions
Over 10,000 Media Stories
11,000 attend watch events
2.5M+ Videos Views
12,582 Twitter tweets
25,763 Facebook Fans

21

Reflections on IBM Watson


How to Build your Own Watson Jr.
In your Basement (eight steps)
1. Acquire Hardware

2. Establish Networking

3. Install Linux and Middleware

4. Download information sources

Server 1: Server 2: Server 3:
Presentation Business Logic File / Database
Server Server Server

This will be your This will be your This will be your
avatar interface to compute node for information source
ask questions and analytics repository
display answers

23

How to Build your Own Watson Jr.
In your Basement (eight steps)
5. Query Panel – Parsing the Question

6. Implement Hadoop, UIMA with Java, C++ and XML

• This is the part we call in the industry
a “Small Matter of Programming” (SMOP)

7. UIMA-AS Parallel Processing
Element # of Cores Response
Single core 1 2 hours
3 Quad-Core servers 12 10 minutes
1 Frame (Watson) 288 30 seconds
IBM Watson 2880 3 seconds

8. Testing and Training

24

One Year Later –
IBM Watson by the numbers

15 Million viewers watched the rerun of
IBM Watson’s triumph on Jeopardy!

386 Universities are collaborating
with IBM on Watson and
Analytics

5 Members of U.S. Congress
that have competed against
Watson

77 Thousand downloads of “How to
build your own Watson Jr. in
your basement”

25

IBM Watson brings together a set of
transformational technologies to
drive optimized outcomes Generates and
Understands evaluates
Natural hypothesis for
Language better outcomes
of human
speech

Adapts and
…built on a massively parallel
Learns from probabilistic evidence-based
user selections architecture
and responses

26

Watson was built for Jeopardy!
Can be enhanced for future applications
Early 2011 Future
Watson's current capabilities were ...but future Watson enhancements are
constrained for Jeopardy! requirements... possible with further development...

• English only • Multiple, varied users

• A single questioner per system • More dynamic content updates
instance
• More/varied training data
• 3-second response time
• Varied response times
• Static content
• Additional languages
• Unstructured text

• Requires training data – history
of questions and answers
27
27 8/2/2011

IBM PureSystems

IBM Watson IBM PureFlex
10 Frames 4 Frames

60% Reduced Floor Space!

28

Transforming how Business Thinks,
Acts, and Operates

Healthcare Financial Services
Diagnostic/treatment Investment and
assistance, evidenced- retirement planning,
based insights, institutional trading and
collaborative medicine decision support

Contact Center Government
Call center and tech support Public safety, improved
services, enterprise information sharing,
knowledge management, security
consumer insight

IBM Watson has the capabilities to address grand
business and societal challenges
29

Healthcare Industry is beset with
complex information challenges

Medical information
is doubling every 5
years, much of
which is
unstructured

81% of physicians
report spending 5
hours or less per
month reading
medical journals

Medicine has become too complex (and only) about 20 percent of the knowledge clinicians use
today is evidence-based.”
--- Steven Shapiro, Chief Medical and Scientific Officer, UPMC
Source: International Journal of Circumpolar Health, DoctorDirectory.com, Institute for Medicine"
30

Why is Watson Technology
ideal for Healthcare?
What condition has red eye, pain,
What condition has red eye, pain,
Interprets and understands inflammation, blurred vision, floating
inflammation, blurred vision, floating
natural language questions spots and sensitivity to light?
spots and sensitivity to light?

Physician Notes, Medical Journals,
Physician Notes, Medical Journals,
Analyzes large volumes Pathology results, Clinical Trials,
Pathology results, Clinical Trials,
of unstructured data Wikipedia, etc
Wikipedia, etc

Quantifies degrees of Uveitis
Uveitis 91%
91%
confidence in potential Iritis
Iritis 48%
48%
answers Keratitis
Keratitis 29%
29%

Supports iterative Family History, Physical Exam,
Family History, Physical Exam,
dialogue to refine results Current Medications,
Current Medications,
etc.
etc.

Adapts and learns to New Clinical Recommendations.
New Clinical Recommendations.
improve results over time New Drugs. Approved use of Drugs,
New Drugs. Approved use of Drugs,
etc.
etc.
Source: IBM Research, MI, SCIP, BCG analysis
31

IBM Watson for Healthcare
Medical Professionals and Patients

• Improve quality of care
• Reduce errors
• Engage patients Watson-enabled Solutions from major
healthcare solution providers
• Improve audit trails
• Private data
• Improve efficiency Customized Watson • Custom algorithms
Solution Appliance
• Better utilize skills • Custom applications

• Advance
Watson for Healthcare Service Evidenced-based
Patient ... Differential ... Second ... Customized
Care
Workup Diagnosis Opinion Solution
• Foster a
healthcare
• Right content, Watson Engine and Scoring and
analytics
right time Confidence Models
Evidence Annotators ecosystem
• Best-practices to Data Relationship Training and
Data Data Algorithms • Capture value
point of care
• Capture value
Healthcare
Healthcare ... Benefits ...
Benefits Public
Public
Publishers ...
Publishers Providers
Providers Providers
Providers domain
domain

32

Watson @ WellPoint

• WellPoint & IBM agreement
• WellPoint will develop and launch Waston-based solution
–Help improve patient care
–Provide delivery of up-to-date, evidence-based healthcare
• IBM will develop the base Watson healthcare technology
• Targeted implementation:
– Physician Helper: Will be a consultant with the ability to analyze
various inputs to help humans make a decision
– Load Watson with medical data to analyze and identify conditions
• Ranging from heart disease to cancer to diabetes.
• Medical histories, test results, possible drug interactions and treatment
options will be evaluated too.
– Working with select physician groups in clinical spots

33

Seton Healthcare
• First client to utilize IBM Content and Predictive Analytics for
Healthcare
– Combines IBM's Watson technology with industry solutions offering
• Extract relevant clinical information from vast amounts of patient data
– Better analyze the past
– Understand the present
– Predict future outcomes
• Seton to focus on
– Determine root causes of hospital re-admissions
– Ways to decrease preventable multiple hospital visits

• Facts…
– One in five patients suffer from preventable re-admissions
– Represents $17.4 billion of the current $102.6 billion Medicare budget *
– Beginning in 2012, hospitals are penalized for high re-admission rates with
reductions in Medicare discharge payments
* According to the New England Journal of Medicine
34

IBM Content and Predictive
Analytics for Healthcare:
• First of a kind solution for healthcare and available to help
healthcare organizations with transformation opportunities
– Integrates structured and unstructured data
– Applies predictive root cause analysis, natural language processing
(like IBM Watson), and built-in medical terminology support
– Identifies trends, patterns and deviations revealing clinical and
operational insights. It is a first of a kind solution for healthcare and
available to help healthcare organizations with transformation
opportunities.

• Pairs Content Analytics and SPSS Modeler Professional
with solution and healthcare industry specific medical
terminology support and services
– Synergistic solution to IBM Watson
– Healthcare solution that pairs natural language processing with
predictive root cause analysis.

35

Financial services firms are
beset with complex information
challenges
Reuters publishes the
equivalent of 9000 pages of
financial news every day1
Five new research
documents come out of Wall
Street every minute1
Asset managers receive up
to 1,000 e-mails daily1

Sources: 1 - www.financial-domain.info/integrating-qualitative-and-quantitative-information/
2- IBM Client experience with ForEx traders
3 – Derived from NYSE data
36

Financial Services– Role based
use case examples
Utilize more information, more
effectively and efficiently, to support
investment and credit decisions

Institutional Investment Advisor

Provide investment advice directly
to retail investors and/or support
advisors for high net worth clients

Retail Financial Advisor

Leverage superior capabilities
for fraud detection and/or
Compliance support

Risk Management officer
37

Citigroup

• Announced plans to explore how Watson fits into the
realm of digital banking
• Citigroup will examine…
– Watson's ability to “Help analyze customer needs”
– Process vast amounts of up-to-the-minute financial, economic,
product and client data,
– Provide rapid, personalized banking solutions.
– Watson's Deep-content analytics, Natural language processing
and Evidence-based learning with how the company interacts
with customers to advance digital banking
• Watson's financial assistance will be provided as a
“Cloud-based service"

38

Need to rethink what it will take to
get ahead tomorrow

Emerging IT
• Structured & unstructured (global)
Traditional IT •
•
Probabilistic Applications
Discovery Oriented
• Structured data (local)
• Big Data Insights
• Deterministic Applications
• Natural Language
• Search Oriented
• Query Results
• Machine Language
39

Summary
• IBM Watson is...
– A reasoning system that processes questions and answers in
Natural Language, across structured and unstructured data
sources, using Deep Analytics that learns for optimal results

• IBM Watson is not…
– An advanced search engine, database retrieval system, our
new computer overlord, or the beginning of Skynet

• IBM Watson works by...
– Analyzing the question, generating hypotheses, evaluating
evidence and presenting results scored by confidence level

• Which means that…
– Society now has a new tool to help tackle some of the biggest
information challenges in healthcare, financial services, etc.


Thank You!

Session: sBD07
Presenter: Tony Pearson

#IBMEDGE
Intel, the Intel logo, Xeon and Xeon Inside are trademarks or registered
trademarks of Intel Corporation in the U.S. and /or other countries.

Learn more at:

www.ibmwatson.com
www.facebook.com/ibmwatson
www.twitter.com/ibmwatson
(Tweet hashtag #ibmwatson )
www.youtube.com/ibm

See Watson in action at an IBM Lab, Briefing
Center or Analytics Solution Center

Tony Pearson
9000 S. Rita Road
About the Speaker Master Inventor,
Bldg 9070 Mail 9070
Tucson, AZ 85744
Senior Managing
Consultant
Mr. Tony Pearson +1 520-799-4309 (Office)
Master Inventor, IBM System Storage™
tpearson@us.ibm.com
Senior Managing Consultant
IBM System Storage

Tony Pearson is a Master Inventor and Senior managing consultant for the IBM System Storage™ product line. Tony joined
IBM Corporation in 1986 in Tucson, Arizona, USA, and has lived there ever since. In his current role, Tony presents briefings on
storage topics covering the entire System Storage product line, Tivoli storage software products, and topics related to Cloud
Computing. He interacts with clients, speaks at conferences and events, and leads client workshops to help clients with
strategic planning for IBM’s integrated set of storage management software, hardware, and virtualization products.

Tony writes the “Inside System Storage” blog, which is read by hundreds of clients, IBM sales reps and IBM Business Partners
every week. This blog was rated one of the top 10 blogs for the IT storage industry by “Networking World” magazine, and #1
most read IBM blog on IBM’s developerWorks. The blog has been published in series of books, Inside System Storage: Volume
I through IV.

Over the past years, Tony has worked in development, marketing and customer care positions for various storage hardware and
software products. Tony has a Bachelor of Science degree in Software Engineering, and a Master of Science degree in
Electrical Engineering, both from the University of Arizona. Tony holds 19 IBM patents for inventions on storage hardware and
software products.


Additional Resources

Email:
tpearson@us.ibm.com

Twitter:
http://twitter.com/az99Øtony

Blog:
http://ibm.co/brAeZØ

Books:
http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/99Ø_tony

IBM Expert Network:
http://www.slideshare.net/az99Øtony

44
44

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Information is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind.

The customer examples described are presented as illustrations of how those customers have used IBM products and the results they may have achieved. Actual
environmental costs and performance characteristics may vary by customer.

Information concerning non-IBM products was obtained from a supplier of these products, published announcement material, or other publicly available sources and does not
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