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Can we use milk recording data to predict reproduction?An improvement on the fat to protein ratio,[object Object],A. Madouasse, J.N. Huxley, W.J. Browne, A.J. Bradley, M.J. Green,[object Object]
Background,[object Object],Start of lactation:,[object Object],Massive increase in energy demand,[object Object],Limited appetite,[object Object],[object Object],41.5 days (de Vries and Veerkamp, 2000),[object Object],Up to 8 weeks for most cows (Heuer et al, 2000),[object Object]
Background,[object Object],Poor reproductive performance in dairy cows:,[object Object],Later resumption of luteal activity in cows in NEB (Heuer et al, 1999),[object Object],Milder oestrus expression with increasing milk yield (Cutullic et al, 2009),[object Object],Negative correlation between milk yield and calving interval (Haile-Mariam et al, 2003) ,[object Object],Genetic selection on yield and composition has been accompanied by poorer reproduction (Lucy, 2001),[object Object]
Background,[object Object],Link between energy balance and milk composition at the start of lactation,[object Object],NEB associated with:,[object Object],Increase in milk butterfat percentage ,[object Object],(de Vries and Veerkamp, 2000),[object Object],Decrease in milk protein percentage,[object Object],(Duffield, 1997),[object Object],Increase in the fat to protein ratio ,[object Object],(Grieve, 1986),[object Object]
Question,[object Object],Can we predict the calving to conception interval from milk recording data?,[object Object]
Materials,[object Object],Selection from NMR data collected in 2004-2006:,[object Object],8,211,988 individual cow recordings,[object Object],992,625 lactations,[object Object],483,474 cows,[object Object],2,128 herds,[object Object]
What do we want to look at?,[object Object],[object Object]
Butterfat (% or kg)
Protein (% or kg)
Fat to Protein ratio
Somatic cell count,[object Object]
How ?,[object Object],Do you really want to know?,[object Object]
Outcome: calving to conception interval,[object Object],Calculated from recalving dates,[object Object],Gestation length of 280 days assumed,[object Object],Intervals categorised as:,[object Object],[20-60] ; [61-81] ; [82-102] ; [103-123] ; [124-144],[object Object],Calving 1,[object Object],Conception,[object Object],Calving 2,[object Object],280days,[object Object],Calving to Conception,[object Object],Interval,[object Object]
Cumulative Probability of Conception per Interval,[object Object]
How does it work?,[object Object]
Can we include raw data in our model?,[object Object],Variation in the percentage of butterfat,[object Object]
Can we include raw data in our model?,[object Object],Variation in the percentage of protein,[object Object]
Can we include raw data in our model?,[object Object],Variation in the fat to protein ratio,[object Object]
Model Results,[object Object]
Does the model work?,[object Object]
Model Predicted Effects,[object Object]
Interlude,[object Object],The parable of the ,[object Object],jet assisted take-off,[object Object],Darwin award, 1995,[object Object]
Interlude,[object Object],A US sergeant had fitted a jet-assisted take-off unit onto his car,[object Object],Went to a long straight road in the Arizona desert,[object Object],Put the gas on,[object Object]
Interlude,[object Object],The vehicle quickly reached a speed of between 250 and 300 mph ,[object Object],Continued at that speed, under full power, for an additional 20-25 seconds ,[object Object]
Interlude,[object Object],The car remained on the straight highway for approximately 2.6 miles ,[object Object],The driver applied the brakes,[object Object],Completely melting them,[object Object],Blowing the tires,[object Object],Leaving thick rubber marks on the road surface ,[object Object]
Interlude,[object Object],The vehicle then became airborne for an additional 1.3 miles,[object Object],Impacted a cliff face at a height of 125 feet,[object Object],Left a blackened crater 3 feet deep in the rock,[object Object]
Interlude,[object Object],The Arizona Highway Patrol were mystified when they arrived at the site,[object Object],The folks in the lab tried to figure it out,[object Object],Impact on a cliff face at a height of 125 feet,[object Object],Rubber marks on the road,[object Object],Straight road in the Arizona desert,[object Object],Blackened crater 3 feet deep in the rock,[object Object]
End of the ,[object Object],interlude,[object Object]
Have we fitted jet engines on our cows?,[object Object],Ketosis,[object Object],Poor reproduction,[object Object],Uncoupling of the somatotropic axis,[object Object],Displaced abomasum,[object Object],Early lactation,[object Object],Negative energy balance,[object Object],Delayed uterine involution,[object Object],Impaired immunity,[object Object],Changes in milk constituents,[object Object],Lameness,[object Object],Insulin resistance,[object Object],Low T3/T4,[object Object],Steatosis,[object Object]
Have we fitted jet engines on our cows?,[object Object],Cows selected on milk production for decades,[object Object],[object Object]
Much of the cow resources directed toward milk production as opposed to reproduction and other functions
Range of metabolic perturbations,[object Object]
Fat and fat to protein ratio unreliable as predictors of conception,[object Object]
Conclusion,[object Object]

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