This document summarizes projections for population growth and development in Utah and surrounding areas from 2010 to 2030. It finds that Utah and the Wasatch Front region will experience rapid population growth, adding over 1 million and 1.1 million new residents respectively. This growth will drive significant demand for new housing, commercial development, and infrastructure. The document also notes trends toward smaller households, increasing ethnic diversity, and demand for more compact, mixed-use development patterns.

1. Utah Past, Present &
FAST FORWARD
Arthur C. (Christian “Chris”) Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor & Director
Metropolitan Research Center
University of Utah
January 11, 2010

3. America Grows
200 million in 1968
300 million in 2006
400 million in 2034
500 million in 2050
America adds 100 million people faster
than any other nation except India and
Pakistan – But faster than China.
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research,
University of Utah.

4. The Boom to Come 2010-30
Area Utah Rank
1990-2010
Pop. Growth 1.2M 14
Growth Rate 68% 3
2010-2030
Pop. Growth 1.5M 11
Growth Rate 51% 1
Will rise from 34th to 28th most populous state
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah.

5. The Boom to Come
Salt Lake Metro
Metros > 1M (52) Salt Lake Rank
1990-2010
Pop. Growth 400k 28
Growth Rate 53% 12
2010-2030
Pop. Growth 500k 27
Growth Rate 42% 8
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center,
University of Utah.

6. The Boom to Come
Salt Lake Metro
More Growth than: San Antonio
San Jose
Tucson
Virginia Beach
Will Surpass: Louisville
Memphis
Milwaukee
Oklahoma City

7. The Boom to Come
Salt Lake Metro
Faster Growth rate than: Orlando
Dallas-Ft. Worth
Denver
Washington DC
Tampa
Seattle

8. The Boom to Come
Provo & Ogden Metros
Metros > 500k-1M (51) Provo Ogden
1990-2010
Pop. Growth 300k 5 210k 11
Growth Rate 110% 1 60% 5
2010-2030
Pop. Growth 360k 6 170k 20
Growth Rate 63% 2 30% 14
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah.

9. The Boom to Come
Logan & St. George Metros
Metros < 250k (183) Logan St. George
1990-2010
Pop. Growth 50k 32 120k 4
Growth Rate 63% 12 240% 1
2010-2030
Pop. Growth 70k 22 250k 1
Growth Rate 52% 8 150% 1
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah.

10. The Boom to Come
BC, Cedar City & Heber Micros
Micro (574) Brigham Cedar City Heber
1990-2010
Pop. Growth 13k 110 30k 28 15k 100
Growth Rate 36% 79 140% 5 145% 4
2010-2030
Pop. Growth 20k 61 40k 22 25k 46
Growth Rate 42% 29 75% 4 100% 1
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah.

11. 464 billion
2040 square feet
132 billion
square feet
332 billion
square feet 287 billion
square feet
155 billion
square feet
2010 2040
Source: Data from Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center,
University of Utah. Image from Architect magazine, premier issue, November 2006.

13. Wasatch Range Megapolitan
Area 2010-30
3rd fastest growing behind:
Las Vegas & Sun Corridor
Faster growing than “high-growth” megas:
Front Range & Cascadia
Sierra Pacific & Southern Cal
Texas Triangle & Florida
Piedmont & Chesapeake

14. Population Growth 2010-2030
Area 2010 2030 Change Percent
Wasatch 2.5M 3.6M 1.1M 45%
Utah 2.9M 4.4M 1.5M 50%
Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures adapted from 2008 Economic
Report to the Governor, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.

15. Residential Units 2010-2030
Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10
Wasatch 900k 1.35M 450k 50%
Utah 1.1M 1.65M 550k 50%
Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures based on residential units per
capita 2000 adjusted for declining household size, plus loss factor based on census analysis.

16. Employment Growth 2010-2030
Area 2010 2030 Change Percent
Wasatch 1.5M 2.2M 700k 50%
Utah 1.7M 2.6M 900k 50%
Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Employment includes full- and part-time
jobs as defined by BEA.

17. Nonresidential Space 2010-2030
Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10
Wasatch 750M 1.1B 900M 120%
Utah 850M 1.3B 1.2B 120%
Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of
Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding.

18. Life-Span of Building Function
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah,
based on DoE Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey.

21. Bottom Line Construction
Wasatch Megapolitan
2010-2030
Residential $190 billion
Nonresidential $140 billion
Infrastructure $ 70 billion
Total $400 billion
Annual Average $20 billion
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director,
Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

23. 40,000 Housing Units Short
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University
of Utah

24. Substantial Pent-Up Demand
100,000 more Utahns “doubling up” than 2005.
Pent-up demand for about 40,000 new units
Economic recovery will mean housing gets a
One-Two Punch:
New homes needed to serve growth
New homes needed to reduce doubling up
During 2010 & 2011100,000 new units needed
But ….

25. How Does It Grow?

26. Households are Changing
Household Type 1960 2000 2040
US
HH with Children 48% 33% 26%
HH without Children 52% 67% 74%
Single/Other HH 13% 29% 34%
_________________________________________
Utah
HH with Children 47% 38%
HH without Children 53% 62%
Single/Other HH 18% 22%
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University
of Utah.

27. People Turning 65 Each Year
[Figures in 000s]
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
95
00
05
10
15
20
25
90
75
80
85
50
55
60
65
70
20
20
20
19
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005 .

28. Share of Growth 2000-2040
US HH Type Share
With children 14%
Without children 86%
Single/Other 30%
Utah
With children 25%
Without children 75%
Single/Other 25%
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan
Research Center, University of Utah.

29. “New Urbanity” Preferences
Source: National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.

30. Importance of Community Attributes
1. Housing type (23-26%)
2. Neighborhood age/life stage mix
1/2 to 2/3 (55-65%)
(20-24%) 7
3. Public transportation options 6
(12-14%) 1
4. Type of community (12-15%)
5. Size of yard (11-12%) 5
6. Open space (9-11%)
7. Architectural design (5-6%)
4
2
Source: Adapted from Harris Interactive for Envision Utah
3

31. Preferred Community Attributes
Housing type: Mix of single family
Preferred homes & town homes
Combination
of 75% of Neighborhood age/life stage
Utahns mix: Mix of ages & stages
Public transportation options:
Was about Bus, Rail, TRAX
25% in
1990s Type of community: Village
Lot size: Variety of lot sizes
Open space: Active & passive
Architecture: Distinctive
Source: Envision Utah based on Harris Interactive

32. New Housing Market Realities
Sub-prime mortgages are history
Alt-A mortgages no more
FHA-like conventional mortgages king
“Jumbo” loans problematic
Demand for $1million+ homes tanked
Realization that location matters for investment
Meaning
Smaller homes on smaller lots
More renters
Trend to more “urbane” location options

33. Growth Share by Ethnicity
Ethnicity 2000 2030 Rate Share
White* 1.5M 2.1M 40% 45%
Non-White 260k 1.0M 285% 55%
*Non-Hispanic White
Source: Adapted from Woods & Poole Economics (2008) by Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP, Presidential Professor and
Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

34. Home Ownership by Ethnicity - Utah
Ethnicity Ownership 2006
All Households 72%
White* 74%
Black 48%
Hispanic 50%
Asian/Pacific Islander 53%
*Non-Hispanic White
Source: Freddie Mac.

35. The Future is all About Education
100 Latina/o Elementary 100 White Elementary
Students Students
40 High School Graduates 84 High School Graduates
4 College Graduates 26 College Graduates
1 Masters Degree 10 Masters Degrees
~0.1 Doctorate 1 Doctorate
Source: Adapted from Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah.

36. Shifting Tenure Market
Salt Lake, Provo & Ogden Metros
Tenure 2006 2030 Change Share
Owner 480k 650k 170k 51%
Renter 200k 360k 160k 49%
Total 680k 1.0M 330k
2008-2015 2/3–3/4 of New Housing will be for
Renters including those who rent detached homes
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.

37. 2040 1+1+5+25 =
Wasatch “New Urbanity” Demand
1%+ Demand for downtown SLC
40,000 people (minimum)
1%+ Demand for secondary centers (Ogden, Sandy, Provo)
40,000 people
5%+ Demand for near-center living (Several SLC locations)
200,000 people
25%+ Demand for transit-connected, suburban planned
communities (Day Break)
1,000,000 people
= Two-thirds of all new development to 2040

38. Top Planning Programs

39. THANK YOU
http://metroresearch.utah.edu/