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Geopolitics Oil & gas management Distribution, Sigve Hamilton Aspelund
Global geo politics
Oil & gas management
Sigve Hamilton Aspelund
The geopolitics of oil and gas
The Geopolitics of Oil and Gas
Why are oil prices falling - explained in 60 seconds?
Inside Story - What's driving oil prices down?
Saudi Arabia's SECRET to Cause a MASSIVE Drop in Price of Oil!
Oil Apocalypse: Peak Oil - What If the Oil Runs Out?
World Without Oil: What If All The Oil Ran Out? - Documentary
Russia's economic crisis, explained
Saudi Arabia will not cut oil production
Oil prices drop following OPEC decision to maintain output
"USA-SAUDI ARABIA" WILL PAY FOR THEIR "OIL PRICE MANIPULATIONS"!
The Geopolitics of World War III
2015 - The Dangers Ahead
Dollar Collapse : The Effect of low low Oil prices on the Dollar is bad
Why Low Gas Prices Are Bad For The World
Why China Supports North Korea
Could China Save The World?
Who Supports ISIS?
Why China Hates Japan
Why are Russia and Ukraine Fighting?
Ukraine's History Explained: WWI to 2014 Revolution
Hidden Motives Behind the Ukraine-Russia Conflict
World War 3 : NATO intercepts 4 groups of Russian Nuclear Bombers over
Europe (Oct 31, 2014)
Russia vs NATO 2014- The statistics
U.S. Will Defend NATO Allies Against Russia
China "Aggressively" Intercepts US Military Plane
The World's Future MEGAPROJECTS (2015-2030's)
"The World in 2030" by Dr. Michio Kaku
Future Military Robots
Inside the Stealth B2 Bomber - Military Documentary
The Origins of the 6 Major Religions Explained
World Religions Astonishing Facts
Southern Gas Corridor
The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) project is a mega gas pipeline project
that aims to transport Caspian natural gas to Europe. 4 components
1) Shah Deniz II
Offshore Field Development (Drilling-Subsea)
Shah Deniz II
Shah Deniz II is the second stage of the Shah Deniz Full Field Development
as well as the expansion of the South Caucasus Pipeline. It will deliver an
additional 16 bcma of gas and up to 100,000 barrels of condensate, tripling
overall production from the field.
The Shah Deniz II Project development includes new offshore platforms
constructed in Azerbaijan, up to 30 subsea wells, over 500 km of subsea
pipelines, laid by a fleet of local vessels, a major expansion of Sangachal
Terminal and the expansion of the 700 km South Caucasus Pipeline to
Georgia and Turkey to over 20 bcma per year.
The new Shah Deniz gas volumes will be exported to Europe as well as to
the existing markets in Georgia and Turkey.
2) South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP)
South Caucasus Pipeline (also known as: Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum Pipeline, BTE pipeline, or Shah Deniz
Pipeline) is a natural gas pipeline from the Shah Deniz gas field in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian
Sea to Turkey. It runs parallel to the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline.
3) Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline
The Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) is a natural gas pipeline
from Azerbaijan through Turkey to Europe. It would transport gas from the second phase of the Shah Deniz gas
4) Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)
Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP; Albanian: Gazsjellësi Trans-Adriatik, Azerbaijani: Trans Adriatik Boru
Xətti Greek: Αδριατικός Αγωγός Φυσικού Αερίου, Italian: Gasdotto Trans-Adriatico) is a pipeline project to
transport natural gas from the Caspian sea (Azerbaijan), starting from Greece via Albania and the Adriatic
Sea to Italy and further to Western Europe.
Shah Deniz natural gas field
The Shah Deniz natural gas field is one of the world’s largest natural gas fields, and the largest in
It is located 55 km from Baku in the offshore section of the Caspian Sea.
It holds almost 1.4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.
Shah Deniz I, the first stage of the Shah Deniz field, has been operational since 2006 and produces 9
billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, of which almost 6.6 bcm is delivered to Turkey.
Shah Deniz II, the second stage of the Shah Deniz field, is a major source base and the upstream part of
the Southern Gas Corridor.
It is expected that the Shah Deniz II field will be operational by 2018.
The project will supply natural gas to the European market directly from Azerbaijan for the first time,
opening the Southern Gas Corridor.
As part of the project, 25-year sales agreements were reached on September 19, 2013 for over 10 billion
cubic meters of natural gas per year from the Shah Deniz II field.
Nine companies will buy this gas from Italy, Greece and Bulgaria. The Final Investment Decision (FID) was
signed on December 17, 2013 for the Shah Deniz II project.
Putin: Who gave NATO right to kill Gaddafi?
The Truth About Muammar Gaddafi
Air Crash Investigations Lockerbie Disaster
Gadaffi to pay victims of IRA
Understanding Libya Attacks after
Qaddafi Regime and Rivalry
In spite of the NATO operations completed 2011, terrorist attacks major on Tripoli in August after
fierce fighting with nationalist forces.
Libya's economy took a heavy hit when rebels blockaded export terminals in July 2013.
This situation is now causing output to float along with all-important oil revenues.
The attack was part of a wider struggle between rival political and militant factions seeking to
control the oil-rich country which, since the fall of Dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 has
spiralled into an ever greater state of anarchy.
The war has also taken on regional dimensions with Libya Dawn reportedly receiving support
from Qatar, which has long sponsored the Muslim Brotherhood.
The seven-month-long conflict has now centred on the control of country’s sizeable oil reserves.
We can say that Libya’s most serious problem since 2011 has been the lack of stability and
Insecurity has had negative impact on daily life to ordinary people.
The lack of security stems primarily from the failure of the effort to disarm and demobilize rebel
militias after the war.
As a result, various types of armed groups control much of the country and the elected
government is at their mercy.
Since the overthrow of Libya's long-time dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, political
divisions and is now governed by rival governments and a patchwork of overlapping
militia’s Islamist-dominated group known as Libya Dawn – the newest of the Middle East's
self-proclaimed revolutionary movements – said it had launched an operation to "liberate
oilfields and terminals".
“The attack by the so-called Libya Dawn militias represents a serious development in the
nature of the conflict in Libya, threatening national unity and leading the country to civil
war,” the Libyan government statement warned.
Abdullah Al-Thani’s government fled to the eastern city of Tobruk in August after Islamist
militias, known as Libya Dawn, seized control of the capital Tripoli and its airport.
Islamists, with links to Libya’s outgoing parliament, the General National Council (GNC),
have rejected Thani’s government which was elected in June, installing their own rival
prime minister and government in Tripoli.
On December 25, 2014, the Libyan radical Islamist fighting groups organized an attack toward the
energy facilities of Libya.
During that attack, the oil export terminals were targeted by this group.
They did target Es Sider, the largest oil export terminal of Libya.
In this terminal, one of six storage tanks were attacked and on December 25, and distorted on Monday.
Five tanks taking place in the terminal has still been swamping as result of the fire.
Mohammed Elharari, a spokesman for National Oil Corporation has remarked to the Libya Herald
newspaper, a total of 21 tanks having the capacity of 6.2 million barrels of oil are located in in Es Sidar
At the moment, the greatest fear is the possibility of spilling 6 million barrels of oil into the Mediterranean.
In Bloomberg, it is stated by the Energy Aspects Ltd.
There has been a decrease in oil production from 850 000 barrels per day (bpd) in October to 300 000
This harsh decrease has occurred after the attacks of extremist militants to energy facilities, specifically to
Es Sider terminal.
Impact of the Libya Conflict on North
Understanding to evaluate critical energy security matter requires interdisciplinary approach and integration of the
research into various disciplines, such as energy, economics, systems reliability, risk, political sciences.
In this regard, considering the Libya case, protection of critical energy infrastructure needs understanding the
general framework of the possible economic developments and its political-military impacts.
We know well the ports and oil-gas terminals are one of the major security weaknesses in the critical energy security
In our argument the Libya Dawn (Islamist/Misratan Coalition) supports the General National Congress in Tripoli and is
battling General Haftar and the Nationalist Coalition, which supports the Council of Representatives in Tobruk.
The political and security chaos in Libya has led various regional governments to lend financial, arms, and military
support to their favoured groups in a proxy war – with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia
backing the Nationalist Coalition and the Council of Representatives.
We think, the above mentioned developments are having mid and long terms effects on Libya and its energy
Terrorist groups are targeting in same time dual oil terminals that aim to economically collapse countries’ oil energy
sector and income.
They also challenge to lead control not only the cities and energy facilities but also join to the Libya’s oil, political
and military bureaucracies.
Not surprise, recently UN Security Council to implement the resolution 2174 which calls for the immediate
implementation of a ceasefire in Libya and the holding of inclusive national dialogue between rival political parties.
The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) appealed to all sides of Libyan
civil war to cease all armed hostilities and engage in an inclusive political dialogue, seeking to build a State based
on democracy, according to the joint statement of UN organizations.
In conclusion, just after the NATO operation to Libya, within the framework of UN resolution,
required security and stability have not been able to be in place within the country.
However, in addition to the Syrian Crisis and its threats and uncertainties in the
Mediterranean, there is still the possibility that ISIS may expand on the Iraq territory.
Moreover, another possibility that the civil war in Libya breaks out brings the threat that this
violence may spread to the neighbouring countries such as Algeria and Egypt in the North
This new picture implies that the state and public bureaucracy have collapsed, the 2%
share of Libya in world’s energy production is in danger, and also implies the risk that the
government and oil income would be controlled by terrorist organizations via armament
This may also ring forward the possibility of the revision of NATO’s support to Libyan Army
and democratic state structure on the Brussel’s agenda.
In the spring of 2015, below issues may be expected to occupy the agenda in terms of
preventing the terrorist actions from passing the red line:
• International society should take substantial steps for humanitarian aid within the framework
of international law to prevent the deepening of the violence and to protect the civilians from
the devastating effects of this violence.
• UN Security Council should address this issue immediately to establish the stability, disarm the
warring factions and to sustain the public order and democratic political system.
• Border security of Libya should be strengthened in order to prevent the infiltration of the
foreign terrorist groups, as was the case in Syria Crisis.
• Sea security should be sustained by sharing intelligence with the naval forces for early
warning against possible terrorist attacks. This can also contribute to the prevention and
deterrence of possible terrorist attacks to energy infrastructures in the future.
• NATO and EU, together with Arab Union, should prepare a joint solution package to give
further assistance to Libyan air, naval and army forces on energy security chain and
navigation and sea security in the Mediterranean.
22 Libyan soldiers killed in boat attack on oil terminals
December 26, 2014
Black smoke billows out of a storage oil tank in the port of Es Sider in Ras Lanuf after a rocket hit it.
Benghazi: Islamists have killed at least 22 soldiers
after a surprise attack in which they used speedboats
in a failed bid to seize some of Libya's main oil
The fighting in the oil-rich region came as pro-
government forces lost ground to Islamist militias in
the eastern city of Benghazi, where jihadists
beheaded six people and killed another 14, military
The militiamen belonging to the Fajr Libya, or Libya
Dawn, launched the attack on Al-Sidra port by firing
rockets from speedboats, setting an oil tank on fire,
security sources said on Friday.
Soldiers damaged three of the
vessels before clashes in which
the militants were eventually
"These speedboats had fired
several rockets at the terminals of
Ras Lanuf and Al-Sidra and one of
them hit a tank south of Al-Sidra
port which then caught fire," said
Ali al-Hassi, security spokesman for
Al-Sidra is in the "oil crescent"
region that has been the scene of
recent fighting between
government forces and Fajr Libya.
The latest clashes pushed oil
prices higher in Asia on Friday,
with US benchmark West Texas
Intermediate for February delivery
rising US28 cents to $US56.12,
while Brent for February gained
US13 cents to $US60.37.
Libyan Army Forces that are part of the Libya Dawn operation fire a vehicle-mounted weapon on the outskirts of Al Sidra.
Terrorist threats to energy infrastructure in North Africa
Secure energy supplies play a crucial role in the world economy and are
essential to fuel the development of contemporary society.
North Africa is a region characterised by a high amount of energy
resources, and its governments struggle to guarantee the protection of
energy infrastructures, which are becoming targets for terrorist groups
aiming to disrupt the economy of North Africa’s states and to hit Western
Several non-state actors with different agendas are active within the region
and have shown on several occasions the will and the capabilities to target
The relevance of North Africa’s energy
North Africa is an important area for the production of hydrocarbons.
Libya, Algeria and Egypt play a leading role as producing states and are
net energy exporters.
Tunisia and Morocco are also characterised by a smaller production and
are transit countries for important pipelines.
Although oil and gas production and the reserves present in this region
cannot be compared to those in other areas, such as the Middle East,
North Africa’s role is still significant: according to the British Petroleum (BP)
Statistical Review of World Energy, the region boasts 3.9% of world oil
reserves and 4.5% of the world’s production.
At the same time, as regards to natural gas, the whole region has 4.3% of
gas reserves and produces 4.6% of the world’s production.
Libya is the holder of Africa’s largest proved oil reserves (2.9% of the world’s
reserves), while it accounts for 0.8% of world gas reserves (the fourth largest
amount on the continent). Oil production was disrupted in 2011 and again
in 2013 as a result of the civil war and political turmoil.
North Africa is an important source of energy, especially gas, for several
European countries: Spain, Italy and France
The European Union imports, on the whole, 13% of its natural gas from
Algeria, which is the third country from which Europe imports natural gas
after Russia and Norway.
At a time when Europe is looking to ease dependence on Russian reserves,
especially after the events in Ukraine in 2014, consistency and the possible
growth in production in the North Africa region can be particularly relevant.
Most attacks hit Algeria, Libya and Egypt
North Africa is characterised by the presence of several groups that have
an interest in hitting energy infrastructures and disrupting the flow of energy
between North Africa and foreign countries.
In 2013, for example, including kidnappings, assassinations, bombings, and
direct assaults on government facilities and personnel, 51 terrorist attacks
have been carried out in Algeria, 146 in Libya and 17 in Tunisia. These have
been the highest figures since 2001.
In Algeria, complex regional dynamics have brought about a situation
where ideology, ethnicity, economic considerations and criminality are
Insecurity in Algeria has increased in recent years also because of the
collapse of the Libyan state in 2011 and the insurgency in northern Mali.
Algeria has experienced the most famous attack against energy
infrastructure in the last few years.
The Al Mulathameen Battalion led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar, an al-Qaeda in
the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) splinter group, claimed responsibility for the
terrorist attack at Tiguentourine, near In Amenas, which led to the death of
11 Algerians and 37 foreigners.
Will In Amenas gas plant attack deter Algeria investors?
Hostages missing after Algeria raid on In Amenas plant
Minnes ofrene fra In Amenas
Algeria hostage crisis: Inside the In Amenas complex
Statoils pressekonferanse om In Amenas
Etterlatte saksøker BP etter In Amenas-angrepet
Egypt has been affected by several attacks to energy infrastructure, especially
in the Sinai Peninsula that is often seen as a good platform to confront both
Israel and the Egyptian government.
The gas pipeline connecting Egypt to Israel and Jordan, for example, was
attacked 15 times between early 2011 and July 2012.
In February 2011, terrorists hit the pipeline near the El Arish natural gas
compressor station, provoking a disruption of the supplies.
In April and July 2011, other attacks were carried out against the pipelines near
Al-Sabil village in the El-Arish region and near Nagah.
These acts led to severe disruptions in the flow of gas from Egypt to Jordan and
to a complete halt of Egyptian natural gas supply to Israel.
In 2014, the attacks have again increased, with four attacks against the Arab
The Arab Gas Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline in the Middle
It exports Egyptian natural gas to Jordan, Syria,
and Lebanon, with a branch underwater pipeline to Israel.
It has a total length of 1,200 kilometres (750 mi) at a cost of
As of March 2012, the gas supply to Israel and Jordan
stopped due to 13 separate attacks on GASCO's feeder
pipeline to El-Arish that have taken place since the
beginning of the 2011 Egyptian revolution—carried out by
Bedouin complaining of economic neglect and
discrimination by the central Cairo government.
By spring 2013 the pipeline returned to continuous operation,
however, due to persistent natural gas shortages in Egypt,
the gas supply to Israel was suspended indefinitely while the
supply to Jordan was resumed, but at a rate substantially
below the contracted amount.
The pipeline has since been targeted by militants several
Six Day War - Israeli victory
Economic distress, not ideological fervor, is
behind Sinai's terror boom
It's too easy to blame al-Qaida and
other radical groups when looking for
the motivation behind the 13
explosions that hit the gas line
connecting Egypt and Israel, as well as
When one sees the Bedouin pay
inordinate sums for whatever gas
supply they receive, and as they see
how GASCO, operating from land
taken from them, generates huge
profit from pumping gas to Israel and
Jordan, one cannot help but ponder
the frustration that may drive them to
act, or aid those who wish to injure
The pipeline explosion in the Sinai, Feb. 6, 2011.
Egyptian gas supply to Jordan stabilises
at below contract rate
Natural gas exports from Egypt to Jordan are stable at 100 million cubic
feet per day, although the contract between the countries stipulates 240
million cubic feet
A fire is seen on a gas pipeline in the Massaeed area west of the Mediterranean coastal town of al-Arish,
North of Sinai, February 5, 2012
The supply of gas from Egypt to Jordan has been
interrupted 15 times since 5 February 2011, as the
pipeline in Sinai has been repeatedly attacked.
Egypt produces six billion cubic feet of natural gas a day,
of which 55 per cent goes to the electricity sector, 20 per
cent is exported, 13 per cent goes to industries and less
than 3 per cent goes to households.
Arab gas pipeline agreement
Amman - 26 January 2004 - The Egyptian, Jordanian, Syrian and
Lebanese prime ministers signed the agreement of the second
phase of the Arab Gas Pipeline.
The second phase extends over 390 km from the city of Aqaba to
the Rehab in Jordan just 24 km from the Syrian boarder with 36-inch
diameter and capacity of 10 billion cubic meter per year to face
the increasing Arab markets demand of natural gas.
The third phase will extend from north where the Jordanian-Syrian
borders to the Turkish-Syrian boarders and from the west to Banias
and Tripoli in Lebanon.
Oil and Gas Pipeline News in Egypt
Egypt Militants Bomb Gas Pipeline to Jordan
Egypt’s Drop in Gas Supplies Renews Concerns in Jordan
Hurghada's Resorts to be Fuelled with Natural Gas
Egypt Compensates Jordan for Gas Supply Disruption
Egypt to Increase Gas Exports to Jordan
Jordan to Replace Imports of Natural Gas From Egypt
Gas Pipeline to Jordan & Israel Blow Up for 10th Time
Threatens from Israel Over Gas Prices
Second Explosion Hits Egypt Gas Terminal
Egyptian Gas Pipeline to Israel, Jordan Bombed
Corruption Charges Against Mubarak Sons in Connection with Gas Exports
Terrorists Try to Blow Up Egypt-Israel Gas Pipeline
Pumping Egyptian Natural Gas to Israel
EMG's Gas Supply to Resume on March 14th
Resuming the supply of Egyptian Gas to Jordan Soon
Repair Work in Egypt to Israel Gas Pipeline
Gas Supply to Israel to Resume No Later than 4 March
President of EMG Company resigns
Gas Explosion in Sinai Peninsula
T.D. Williamson Performs Subsea Hot Tap Operation
Resuming the supply of Egyptian Gas to Jordan Soon
EMG's Gas Supply to Resume on March 14th
Pumping Egyptian Natural Gas to Israel
Terrorists Try to Blow Up Egypt-Israel Gas Pipeline
Egyptian Gas Pipeline to Israel, Jordan Bombed
Corruption Charges Against Mubarak Sons in Connection with Gas Exports
Second Explosion Hits Egypt Gas Terminal
Threatens from Israel Over Gas Prices
Gas Pipeline to Jordan & Israel Blow Up for 10th Time
Jordan to Replace Imports of Natural Gas From Egypt
Egypt to Increase Gas Exports to Jordan
Egypt Compensates Jordan for Gas Supply Disruption
Hurghada's Resorts to be Fuelled with Natural Gas
Egypt’s Drop in Gas Supplies Renews Concerns in Jordan
Egypt Militants Bomb Gas Pipeline to Jordan
Ukraine Crisis: Development Scenarios
Baku, 15 December 2014
It is no secret that Kiev has turned into a grave geopolitical problem
between the West and Russia.
The issue is of such a great magnitude that it is being debated about within
almost all major international events.
The parties are accusing one another, while the Minsk agreement contains
number of provisions that regrettably remain unfulfilled.
For now experts are suggesting different development scenarios and
evaluate various options.
Yet, no conclusive positions are shaped and therefore the problem only
adds to the geopolitical uncertainty.
Almost $60 billion evaporated from Russia’s stock market on
Monday as global investors were spooked by Vladimir Putin’s
invasion of Crimea and the West explores economic sanctions.
Russian Stocks Plunge on Ukraine Crisis; Equity Index Sheds $58B
Published March 03, 2014
Ukraine Crisis - Russian Military Intervention
Early 2014 saw the worst stand-off between
Russia and the West since the Cold War.
On February 21, Ukrainian authorities and
opposition leaders signed an agreement backed
by the European Union on settling the political
crisis, including the establishment of a national
unity government within 10 days.
On February 22, following three months of large
protests and violent clashes, former President
Yanukovych fled Kyiv. The Ukrainian Parliament
established an interim government on February
Russian forces occupied the Crimean Peninsula in
support of the Russian Federation’s claim of Crimean
annexation and these forces continued to take further
actions in the Crimean Peninsula consistent with its claim.
The United States and Ukraine do not recognize this
The Russian Federation positioned military forces along
the border of eastern Ukraine while armed militants in
several eastern Ukrainian cities staged demonstrations,
seized government buildings, and attacked police and pro-
Another Putin-Obama Phone Call Goes
Poorly As Ukraine Crisis Continues To
MAR 7 2014
Before calling Putin, Obama announced the first
sanctions against Russia since the start of the crisis,
ordering visa bans and asset freezes against so far
unidentified persons deemed responsible for
threatening Ukraine’s sovereignty.
In their telephone call, Obama said he urged
Putin to accept the terms of a potential
diplomatic solution to the dispute over Crimea
that would take account of Russia’s legitimate
interests in the region.
Oil drama: Russian finances are
People buy things to protect their money against inflation
Oil price is decresing
Oil price 52 $/bbl vs 115 in June
The biggest oil producing countries
Russia is one of the countries that
is struggeling the most 06.01.15
Ukraine War 2015 - Novorossian Rebels In Heavy Clashes And Fighting Near
UKRAINE: Minsk Peace Deal to End in War
Ukraine War - Heavy Combat Action During Fighting Between Ukrainian Army
And Novorossian Rebels
War in Ukraine Bloody battles for the South East / Война в Украине Кровавые
бои за Юго Восток
2015 Updates! VLADIMIR PUTIN prepares for WAR with the Beast over Ukraine
2015 Oil Price: What You Need to Know...Putin, Shale, & the Saudi's
Russia Vs. Saudi Arabia, $50 Oil - Oil Wars Vol. 1
US Collapse from Shale Oil - Oil Wars Vol. 2
"USA-SAUDI ARABIA" WILL PAY FOR THEIR "OIL PRICE MANIPULATIONS"!
PUTIN gives EUROPE ULTIMATUM - I WILL CUT OFF YOUR OIL - WW3 is HERE
Vladimir Putin Illuminati? Truth about ISIS, Malaysia Air, WW3 ... (Documentary
Flight MH17 False Flag Conspiracy FULLY EXPOSED! Complete Compilation Of
ALL The Evidence! - BUSTED!
MH370 Malaysian Flight: Real Truth Behind
The Road to World War 3: Oil Prices, Ukraine, Russia, America, Collapse U.S.
The Silent Buildup To World War III
Signs Of World War III - World War 3 Is Possible - World War III Could Happen
Russia vs NATO 2014- The statistics
Hidden Motives Behind the Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Wealth & Purpose Show 030 "Is it Time To Buy Oil Stocks?“
The Secrets of the Rich
OPEC sends oil prices further down and you may be affected
Why OPEC's decision means Russia will suffer the most
Jim Rickards on The Currency War and Economic Crisis 2015
The First 12 Hours of a US Dollar Collapse
WW3 Simulation 2015
WW3 Atomic Senario Simulation
The EU Agreement On The 2030 Framework
For Climate And Energy Policy
At its last meeting on October 23rd, the European Council finally agreed on
a common framework on climate and energy policy for the period 2020 to
The Heads of State and Government of the 28 member states of the EU
decided after long negotiations that by 2030 the EU must reduce its
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% with reference to the 1990
More precisely, economic sectors covered by the European Emission
Trading Scheme (ETS), i.e. power plants, smelters, paper factories and the
like, must reduce their emissions by 43%, while non-ETS sectors (buildings,
transportation, small enterprises, etc.) must globally decrease their GHG
emissions by 30%.
Other three targets are part of the climate and energy deal struck in Brussels.
The first concerns renewable sources of energy which must represent at least 27% of the
European gross final energy consumption; however, this binding goal must be reached at
the European level and does not involve any specific enforceable target for individual
The second target is merely indicative and is about energy efficiency: by 2030 the EU must
reduced its total energy consumption by at least 27% with reference to the consumption
level foreseen by the business as usual scenario computed in 2007.
Finally, by 2030 any EU member states must be well interconnected with the energy grids
of its neighbours; more specifically, any state must have interconnections with the electric
networks of it neighbours equal, at least, to a 15% of its own generation capacity; the
European Commission (EC) will report on the issue and try to fully exploit any financial
resource available for the completion of already selected projects of common interest.
The agreement reached in Brussels confirms the commitment of the EU to fight against
climate change and lead on-going international negotiations that are supposed to
achieve a meaningful conclusion at the UN Conference in Paris next year.
Indeed, a couple of weeks after the European Council agreed on the 2030 policy
framework, America and China followed suit, unveiling a framework agreement on GHG
emissions, according to which America will reduce emissions by 26-28% by 2025 (the
baseline year adopted here is 2005), while China will augment the use of low carbon
energy sources and stop the increase of its own emissions by 2030.
The decision of the European Council seems in line with the Climate and Energy Package
adopted by the EU in 2009 and with the content of the 2011 European Roadmap to a low
carbon economy by 2050; however, despite the similarities the deal agreed last October is
different at least for two aspects.
2030 Framework on Climate and Energy - Connie Hedegaard | European Commissioner
for Climate Action
The Phantom of Russia-China Gas Deal
New gas deal between Russia and China is a good instrument for Beijing to receive the
access to many attractive Russian assets while for Kremlin it is a weak attempt to show the
existing alternative for energy partnership with the West.
China is the side that receiving the most from the war between Ukraine and Russia and the
clash in international relations that appeared during the conflict.
After Russian aggression against Ukraine Moscow received the full scale sanctions from EU,
US and many more others international players for rude violation of international law,
human rights and a whole set of international treaties.
Having no intention to solve the conflict and reduce the level of violence on the East of
Ukraine Russian president Vladimir Putin decided to play the Eastern game with the
attempt of tight cooperation with China.
The prominent place of such special relations between Moscow and Beijing should have
been the new gas deal.
Signed in May 2014 and technically supported in October 2014 treaty
between Russia and China about joint realization of project “Sila Sibiri
(Power of Siberia)” instead of great turn to the East became the second
role pipeline to China with unclear perspectives.
According to the basic memorandum signed in May the contract was
signed for 30 years with the price of 400 billions dollars.
According to it Russia is supposed to export about 38 billions of cubic
meters of gas annually to China.
The first gas was supposed to come in 2018.
Now Russian side announces the delay of first gas export on 2020 and the
reduction of gas volume up to 5 Bcm at the beginning.
The thing is that Russia now has no money to build this gas pipeline by itself.
Loans in Western banks are now no longer available.
Russia’s own financial abilities are vanishing due to the dynamic fall of oil price which is the main
Russian export product.
So the only possible donor is China.
But Beijing is not in a big hurry to give money for the new gas pipeline.
So far Russian gas is not being critical for China.
The main role of new gas contract, which is extremely important for Vladimir Putin, is to open the
access to Russia’s resources deposits and new technologies mostly in the military sphere.
By relatively not expensive price (about 25 billions of dollars as loans for Russia on the pipeline
construction which will be returned by gas export) Beijing is getting the access and can become
the side in exploiting the Siberian oil and gas fields.
Moreover, Russia opened the gate for China to enter the Arctic projects for oil and gas
The gas for the new pipeline to China was supposed to be produced on gas fields of Kovykta
But because of international sanctions of Russia the development of these fields will be delayed
as Russia does not produce all necessary equipment for the gas production itself.
It is also possible to add that new gas pipeline to China brings many other risks to Russia.
One of them is technological as Russia is falling in deep international isolation without the
possibility to break import technological dependence, especially in energy sphere.
So the only possible substitution for Moscow could be more tight technological cooperation with
Beijing in oil and gas production on Russian fields that bears additional political risks.
They can lead to the situation when big groups of Chinese workers will come to exploit Russian
Siberia which will be the start of open Chinese expansion on the current Russian territories.
Besides, delivering to Beijing new military technologies Moscow will find the situation that China
can one day become more technologically developed in military and defense sphere then
Future of NATO and Atlantic Security after
the 2014 Wales Summit
NATO Wales Summit - North Atlantic Council opening, 05 SEP 2014
The History of Nato
Almost a quarter century after the Cold War, NATO leaders met in Newport at a
critical transition moment in history of the alliance.
The latest NATO summit which was described as ‘one of the most important
summits in the history of our alliance’ by Rasmussen, was held on September 4-5,
2014 in Wales, United Kingdom.
This summit should be handled carefully as it was NATO’s first meeting since
Russia provided large-scale military support to separatist forces fighting in
Ukraine and the last before the completion of the alliance’s mission in
Summit meetings tend to speed up the decision-making processes in NATO.
Allied leaders have encountered with the new challenging tasks and blurred
visions for re-defining NATO’s possible strategic roles and providing the means of
credibility and stability in the Euro Atlantic region, from Ukraine to Africa and
New developments and regional crises have led to better relations between
American and European allies; and also reinforced the determination.
NATO’s political and military dimensions are faced with a new kind of alarming
nature in ongoing risks and threats.
With the civil war in Eastern Ukraine and radical Islamic extremists’ attacks
across Syria and Northern Iraq; NATO has turned its face toward new threats
and also made a final decision to withdraw the ISAF mission from Afghanistan.
During the Wales Summit, NATO discussed how to respond to Russia’s politics in
Ukraine and how to stop the civil war since the ongoing conflict affects the
border security of member states.
Russian President Putin was not invited to the NATO summit, but he was still the
center of attention for 67 heads of state and government gathered in Wales.
Future of NATO’s Deterrence Capacity
Recent NATO summit has succeeded in building a reliable response to new security
The leaders have decided to organize a new mode of Readiness Action Plan; reconciled
NATO’s missions of collective defense capacity and crisis management ability.
From a pessimistic perspective, when we observe the ongoing military and political
developments of global strategic trends, we can see that today the world is turning out to
be a far more dangerous place than a peaceful place.
But in spite of NATO’s enlargement, the allies have encountered with a new kind of
responsibility mission that differs from the Cold War security challenges: piracy, terrorism,
cyber-warfare, and Russia’s hybrid de-stabilization strategy.
Nature of the strategic security environment has changed dramatically, which is full of
friction with traditional and non-traditional risks and emerging threats.
However, we think that these unpredictable challenges will not be eliminated soon.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the
end of the Cold War, it might have been legitimate to question NATO’s
From those 12 founding members in 1949, there are now 28 members
accounting for over 60 percent of world defense expenditures.
NATO has recently focused on taking more ‘operational’ roles – with
missions in the Balkans, whereas the former Secretary General Lord Roberts
has noted that it primarily operated to save the lives of Bosnian Muslims.
It operated in Iraq… and, most recently, of course, in Afghanistan
Cold War Documentary 1917-1945
Cold War Documentary Part 24/24 - Conclusions - 1989 - 1991
Allies affirm the alliance’s unrivalled military might and they are committed to
provide the resources needed to address today’s and tomorrow’s challenges;
but they also pledge to use NATO as the unique and essential transatlantic
forum for political consultation as it was always intended to be.
Russia broke that trust by annexing Crimea and invading Eastern Ukraine, and
the NATO Parliamentary Assembly decided earlier this year to expel the Russian
Parliament after it authorized the use of military force.
Furthermore, we are grateful for the contributions of recent conflicts which have
reminded us that we cannot take security for granted.
In Wales, allies have recognized that NATO’s relationship with Russia has
fundamentally changed, demonstrating unity by stepping up NATO and allies’
political, economic and military support for Ukraine, deploying more defensive
assets in Eastern Europe, and strengthening NATO’s rapid reaction capability
and its ability to respond to ‘hybrid warfare’
NATO has adopted a “Readiness Action Plan” to strengthen NATO’s
collective defense and shield Central and Eastern European states as the
former Soviet bloc that joined the alliance in the last 15 years by
modernizing their military infrastructure, pre-positioning equipment and
supplies, rotating air patrols and holding regular joint exercises on their
• Can NATO provide credible collective defense to its members?
• Can NATO still keep effective deterrence capability?
• Has NATO missed early warning signs of emerging security threats?
• What are the successes and failures of the alliance for response?
These questions are at the heart of NATO’s strategic challenges.
Many analysts claim that the Wales Summit is the most important meeting and
the most difficult test for NATO.
The alliance must rise to the challenge emerged with Russia’s aggression to
reassert its own credibility.
Prior to the summit, it is expected that the most important topics would be the
end of the ISAF operation in Afghanistan by emphasizing the question:
‘How will NATO be able to continue its presence in Afghanistan and its activities
The other relevant discussion topics were:
‘What will be the future of NATO and where the alliance goes?’
‘What will be the value of military capabilities of the alliance’
‘The situation in Ukraine and NATO’s role in it’.
In fact, the following are the formal agenda items outlined by NATO’s leaders
for the Wales Summit;
Enhancing allied readiness and strengthening collective defense capabilities in
response to Russian aggression,
Marking the planned withdrawal of the NATO’s ISAF in Afghanistan at the end of
2014 and launching a non-combat security sector training mission in the country
Boosting NATO’s support for partners.
Nevertheless, according to official documents, it could be claimed that the
meeting’s agenda has been marked by the Ukraine crisis as well as the
emergence of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
In that regard, in order to reach a comprehensive approach regarding the
overall consequences of the summit, it will be useful to examine the final
Islamic State crisis: US hits IS oil targets in
Photos released by the Pentagon show the Gbiebe
Modular Oil Refinery in eastern Syria before (left) and
after air strikes
25 September 2014
The US-led coalition against Islamic State
(IS) has targeted 12 oil refineries in Syria on
a third night of air strikes against the
Raids carried out by US, Saudi and UAE aircraft killed 14 of the group's
fighters and five civilians in eastern Syria, activists said.
According to the Pentagon, the refineries generated up to $2m (£1.2m) per
day in revenue for the militants.
In northern Syria, Kurdish forces say they have pushed back an IS advance.
US President Barack Obama has vowed to dismantle the IS "network of
Poison Gas Attack In Syria
Syrian Civil War 2014 (Part 1)
Syrian Civil War 2014 (Part 2)
Syrian Civil War 2014 - Part 3
Syria War 2015
SYRIA WAR. ISIS rebels attacked by
the Syrian army tanks and air strikes.
Mann fra Levanger drept i Syria
Fem norske kvinner i Syria mot sin vilje
NRK: – Etterlyst kvinne fortalte om terrorplaner
Mann fra Levanger drept i Syria
Syria: Mapping the conflictIn particular, over the last few months,
fighters from Islamic State (IS) - the
extremist group that grew out of al-Qaeda
in Iraq - have been battling regime forces in
new areas, clashing with other armed
groups close to Damascus as well as
invading Kurdish regions.
Syria conflict: BBC exclusive interview with
President Bashar al-Assad
Syrian refugees in the region
The escalating violence and recent IS advances
have had a significant humanitarian impact on Syria
and its neighbours.
Syria is now the world's biggest internal
displacement crisis, with an estimated 6.5m people
forced from their homes but remaining in the
Overall, the UN Office for the Co-ordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) estimates that there are
10.8m people in need inside Syria.
Meanwhile, more than three million Syrians have
fled the country's borders, mainly taking refuge in
Lebanon and Turkey have each taken in more than
one million Syrians, while Jordan, Iraq and Egypt
have become home to hundreds of thousands more.
Islamic State (IS) oil production
Is believed to control six out of 10 of Syria's oil fields, including the Omar
facility, and four small fields in Iraq, including Ajeel and Hamreen
Production in Syria is estimated at 50,000 barrels per day and 30,000 in Iraq,
generating revenue of between $1m (£600,000) and $5m per day
Oil is sold to local merchants, or to middlemen who smuggle it into Iraqi
Kurdistan or over borders with Turkey, Iran and Jordan, and then sell to
traders in a grey market; oil is also sold to the Syrian government
Seizures of smuggled fuel in Turkey rose from 35,260 tons in 2011 to more
than 50,000 tons in the first six months of 2014, before the Turkish authorities
began to crack down on illegal trade
IS has seized large areas of Syria and Iraq in recent months and controls
several oilfields. Sales of smuggled crude oil have helped finance its
offensive in both countries.
The US has launched nearly 200 air strikes against the militants in Iraq since
August and expanded the operation against IS to Syria on Monday.
Syria News 25/1/2015, Syrian Arab Army eliminates hundreds of
ISIS ISIL DAESH Behead 2 Japanese Hostages Breaking News
Why does Russia support Syria's Al-Assad?
Iran's sphere of influence
In other developments:
The Netherlands has advised its soldiers not to wear uniform in public while
travelling on public transport as a precautionary measure as the Dutch
prepare to deploy six F-16 fighters to join the US-led air campaign
Syria's army said it had retaken the key strategic town of Adra, north-east of
Damascus, which had been held by militants from the Nusra Front among
France launched air strikes on IS targets in northern Iraq - its first there in
nearly a week - and pledged more support for opposition forces in Syria
IS publicly killed a human rights lawyer, Samira Salih al-Nuaimi, in the Iraqi
city of Mosul after convicting her of apostasy, the UN announced
US Rear Admiral John Kirby: Strikes aimed at stopping IS making money
'Successful strikes‘ Ten fighters from the UAE and Saudi Arabia joined six US
jets to carry out Wednesday night's strikes, the Pentagon said.
The strikes hit "small-scale" refineries that were producing "between 300-500
barrels of refined petroleum per day".
"We are still assessing the outcome of the attack on the refineries, but have
initial indications that the strikes were successful," the US Central
Command said in a statement.
Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm John Kirby said the purpose of the strikes
was "not necessarily to kill militants" but to destroy the facilities, which were
funding IS through the black market.
He said the Pentagon was looking into reports that civilians had been killed
in coalition air strikes.
Planes came "with a terrifying sound and red lights before the explosions",
said one activist quoted by AP news agency.
The strikes killed 14 IS fighters in Deir al-Zour and five civilians in Hassakeh,
according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an activist
group that monitors the Syrian conflict.
Kurdish forces said they had pushed back IS fighters near the Syrian town of
Kobane, close to the border with Turkey.
There are reports of heavy gunfire outside the town, and Kurdish
commanders have again called for coalition air strikes on IS positions in the
Mark Lowen, on Turkey-Syria border:
"[Syrian refugees] don't want to be here"
IS had besieged Kobane for several days, taking control
of the surrounding villages and forcing more than 140,000
Syrian Kurds to flee into Turkey.
The BBC's Mark Lowen, who is on the Syria-Turkey
border, says some of those Kurds are now trying to return
to Kobane to fight with the Kurdish militia.
Turkey has been overwhelmed by an estimated 1.5 million
Syrian and Iraqi refugees since the conflict in Syria
between opposition forces and Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad began three years ago.
A US Navy F-18E Super Hornet receiving fuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker over north Iraq this week
Residents collect goods in Tel Abyad, a Syrian town close to the Turkish border, as an Islamic State flag flutters from a post
Syrian refugees wait at the Syrian-Turkish border near Sanliurfa
A Syrian refugee family load their belongings on to a lorry near the Syrian-Turkish border in Sanliurfa
On Wednesday, the UN Security Council adopted a binding resolution
compelling states to prevent their nationals joining jihadists in Iraq and Syria.
The US says more than 40 countries have offered to join the anti-IS coalition.
Barack Obama: IS "must be degraded and then ultimately destroyed"
UK Prime Minister David Cameron has said the British military is ready to
"play its part" in the fight against IS and the UK Parliament has been
recalled to discuss plans for air strikes.
In 60 seconds: What does Islamic State
Formed out of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in 2013, IS first captured Raqqa in
It captured broad swathes of Iraq in June, including Mosul, and declared a
"caliphate" in areas it controls in Syria and Iraq
Pursuing an extreme form of Sunni Islam, IS has persecuted non-
Muslims such as Yazidis and Christians, as well as Shia Muslims, whom it
regards as heretics
Known for its brutal tactics, including beheadings of soldiers, Western
journalists and aid workers
The CIA says the group could have as many as 31,000 fighters in Iraq and
NATO’s Reaction to Ukraine Conflict
NATO decided to carry out exploration and monitoring activities on land
and at sea regularly across Eastern Europe and the Baltic states that are
believed to be under Russian threat.
Anticipated field of activity will remain limited within NATO territories.
In the solution of the Ukraine problem which drew attention as the priority
issue of the summit, NATO preferred to develop a series of military and
diplomatic precautions, communicating a harsh warning letter to Moscow
In a meeting with the President of the European Commission José Manuel
Barroso, President of Russia Vladimir Putin said, “I can conquer Kiev in two
weeks if I want to.”
This statement was an alarm bell for NATO allies.
In that regard, Rasmussen underlined that they were faced with a dramatically
changed security environment by Russian attacks to Ukraine.
In Wales Summit Declaration, it is clearly stated that ‘Russia’s aggressive actions
against Ukraine have fundamentally challenged our vision of a whole, free and
Additionally, the joint statement released by the heads of state and
government officially condemns Russia’s escalating and illegal military
intervention in Ukraine and urge Russia to stop and withdraw its forces from
Ukraine and along the Ukrainian border.
According to NATO, “the violence and insecurity in the region caused by Russia
and the Russian-backed separatists are resulting in a deteriorating humanitarian
situation and material destruction in Eastern Ukraine.”
Violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is a serious breach of
international law and a major challenge to Euro-Atlantic security.’
Rasmussen clearly stated that, as long as Kremlin continued on its current path,
a seven-point peace plan introduced by Putin was meaningless.
Rasmussen also noted that Russia was called to step back and take the path to
Among the members of the alliance, it is possible to observe a general
consensus on Russia’s role in destabilizing the region.
Crimea case in March 2014 could seem as the first land grab in Europe by a
major power since the end of the Cold War.
Even though this ‘illegitimate occupation’ which raised legitimate concerns
among the members of the alliance seemed as the most serious crisis in Europe
after the fall of the Berlin Wall, NATO’s response was mostly rhetorical.
Nevertheless, as a response to the annexation in April 1, the alliance has suspended all its
practical cooperation with Moscow for the second time since Russia’s invasion of Georgia.
In the 2014 summit, NATO has once again underlined that they do not and will not
recognize Russia’s illegal and illegitimate ‘annexation’ of Crimea.
It is important to highlight that, Crimea’s annexation has demonstrated the effectiveness of
unconventional warfare tactics.
Nevertheless, the alliance noted in the Article 23 that NATO does not seek a confrontation
and poses no threat to Russia.
However, they added, “we cannot and will not compromise on the principles on which
our alliance and security depend, and we see a concerted campaign of violence by
Russia and Russian-backed separatists at destabilizing Ukraine as a sovereign state.”
For instance, we consider that the developments in Eastern Europe bring a strong wake up
call to NATO for reevaluating the plans towards giving meaning to the strategic relation
For the alliance, Ukraine seems as a long-standing and distinctive partner.
It is clearly stated by the alliance that they value Ukraine’s past and present
contributions to current operations and NATO’s response force.
Also the alliance declared that they will continue to encourage and
support the reforms in Ukraine through the Annual National Program.
It is expressed that additional efforts will be launched to support the reform
and transformation of the security and defense sectors and to promote
greater interoperability between Ukraine’s and NATO’s forces.
At the end of the summit, NATO recognized Ukraine’s intention to expand
its Distinctive Partnership with NATO and strategic consultations in the
However, this approach and Ukraine’s attempts to establish closer relations with the alliance is
strongly criticized by Russia.
As stated by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the West and NATO are warned against
offering any kind of membership to Ukraine and not supporting Kiev’s desire for establishing closer
relations with the alliance, saying that it threatens the attempts to reach a cease-fire.
Lavrov underlined the importance to curb such attempts and stop provoking such approaches
from abroad to ensure national unity in Ukraine.
Another centerpiece of NATO summit was the announcement of a more robust rapid response
force on Ukraine’s eastern flank, which would aim to serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression.
In the joint statement of Obama and Cameron, it is underlined that “We must use our military to
ensure a persistent presence in Eastern Europe, making clear to Russia that we will always uphold
our Article 5 commitments to collective self-defense”.
At that point, it is important to add that NATO has agreed on a new Readiness Action Plan which
means the alliance will update its defense planning and increase its presence on Central and
Eastern Europe with additional equipment, training, exercises and troop rotations.
U.S will contribute $1 billion to support this plan.
Consisting of 4,000 NATO troops, it will initially deploy in the Baltics this fall.
Clearly, NATO does not view such a deployment as a violation of the 1997 NATO-Russia
Founding Act, in which NATO had promised not to place combat forces on the territory of
new member states.
In any event, that deployment will be followed by two weeks of joint NATO-Ukrainian
military exercises outside of L’viv in September followed in a short order by bilateral UK-
Polish military exercises in October.
In the Wales Declaration, it is expressed that while Russia’s military intervention, armed
separatists and instability continue in Ukraine, NATO continues to support sanctions
imposed by the European Union and G7 to address the destabilizing behavior of Russia to
arrive at a political solution.
Amongst these are the measures taken by allies including Canada, Norway and the
United States, as well as the EU’s decisions to limit access to capital markets for Russian
state-owned financial institutions, trade in arms, establish restrictions for export of goods for
military purposes, curtail Russian access to sensitive defense and energy sector
technologies and other measures.
Syria and Islamic State Terrorism Threat
in the Middle East
Discussions among NATO allies at the summit raised new arguments about the crisis in Syria and Iraq due
to ISIL terrorist organization.
Indeed, US President Obama declared that several NATO states were forming a “new coalition of the
willing” to combat ISIL in Middle East.
President Obama says “strong regional partnerships” are the cornerstone of any comprehensive strategy
to confront Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria.
The rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East and limited success of NATO’s operations in Afghanistan
and Libya are other actors that will determine NATO’s future direction.
On that subject, Rasmussen told that international community has an obligation to stop the Islamic State
from advancing further.
The alliance accepted that the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) poses a grave threat to Iraqi and
Syrian people and beyond.
It is also indicated that, if the security of any ally is threatened, NATO will not hesitate to take all
necessary steps to ensure collective security.
As a response to the threat posed by ISIL, ‘a core coalition’ has declared that key allies stand ready to
confront the terrorist threat through military intelligence, law enforcement and diplomatic efforts.
Afghanistan Problem and Defense
Budgets of the Allies
NATO’s mission in Afghanistan will end in December 2014 and the alliance
requested Afghanistan to sign relevant Security Agreements that will enable
NATO troops to remain in the country in 2015 onwards.
Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan has specifically been a NATO mission and during 2014
the alliance is committed to withdraw fully from combat operations which will
be the end of the longest and most expensive mission in NATO history.
In the Wales statement, it is declared that the nature and scope of NATO’s
engagement will change the alliance’s estimation on a period of transmission.
According to the statement, three parallel activities are being provided: in the
short period NATO allies and partners will be ready to continue to exercise, train
and assist the Afghan Security Forces; in the medium term, they will reaffirm the
financial sustainment; and in the long term, the alliance is planning to establish
a stronger partnership with Afghanistan.
NATO allies and partner nations stand ready to continue to train, advice and
assist the ANSF after 2014.
For this purpose, a new, non-combat mission will be established depending on
the signing of the US-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement and NATO-
Afghanistan Status of Forces Agreement.
The Resolute Support Mission should be in consultation with the Government of
Afghanistan and it should be supported by a United Nations Security Council
NATO and its allies are committed to the NATO-Afghanistan Enduring
Under this partnership, both the political and practical elements of the
partnership should be jointly owned and strengthened through regular
consultation on issues of strategic concern.
NATO is ready to work with Afghanistan to develop this partnership in line with
NATO’s Partnership Policy, possibly including the development of an Individual
Partnership Cooperation Program at an appropriate time.
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Another key discussion topic of the summit was the defense budgets of the
alliance’s members, underlining that one of the key objectives is to reverse the
ongoing downward trend in defense spending.
North America and Europe agreed to increase their defense expenditure in real
terms as GDP grows and will direct their defense budgets as efficiently and
effectively as possible.
Allies agreed to reverse the declining defense budgets and aim to limit their
defense spending to 2% of GDP within a decade, as the alliance’s goal is 2% of
GDP on defense.
In 2013, total spending of NATO’s European allies was around 1.6% of GDP.
On the contrary, Russia has increased its defense spending by about 50% since
However, many analysts do not expect European allies to substantially increase
their defense spending in short to medium term.
Reaffirmation of transatlantic solidarity,
– “Welfare instead of warfare” –
For the first time, NATO is prepared to deploy forces at new military installations
along Russia’s western border that would include the bases in Poland, Lithuania,
Estonia and Latvia to host NATO troops.
Leaders will agree to modernize their military might, creating a “spearhead”
rapid-response force of 4,000 troops.
At this point, US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel addresses that these forces
are formed by the USA, UK, Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany,
Italy, Poland and Turkey.
At the NATO summit in Newport, Wales, the United States announced that
Turkey, as an ally in the US-led NATO military alliance, is the only Muslim nation in
a "core coalition" of 10 countries committed to battle IS militants in Iraq.
"Everybody understands that the Turks are in a special category," said a US
Turkey attended the NATO Summit under the presidency of President Recep
Erdoğan met with US President Barack Obama, Prime Minister of Germany
Angela Merkel, President of France François Hollande and the leaders of other
Erdoğan pointed out that Turkey has a different position both within NATO and
similar new entities.
Obama told, "I want to express my appreciation for the cooperation between
US and Turkish military and intelligence services in dealing with the issue of
foreign fighters, an area where we still have more work to do."
During the summit, Erdoğan said, “Illegal annexation of Crimea will not be
recognized”, and emphasized that Crimean Tatar Turks who are exposed to
pressure should be isolated and the efforts for finding a solution to the crisis
should be supported.
With an intervention at the session, Erdoğan asserted that NATO should fulfill its
commitments for Azerbaijan and solve the Karabakh problem within the framework of
Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.
But after the summit, despite the increasing pressure on Turkey, a surprising development
The hostages captured by ISIL from the Turkish Embassy building in Mosul, Iraq on
September 20 were saved by the National Intelligence Service of Turkey (MIT) and brought
President Erdoğan recorded that 49 embassy personnel who were detained by ISIL were
saved by means of “a local operation”, which is crucial for indicating Turkey’s level.
Ankara is expected to make arrangements for a new road map in the Syria phase of the
fight against ISIL.
Turkish government is wary of Syrian Kurds and their YPG militia, which is believed to be
affiliated with the Kurdish PKK movement in south-east Turkey that has waged a long
Just after the summit, the US central command said warplanes from the United
States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates launched airstrikes on four
locations in Syria on Saturday and Sunday, including three on Kobani that
destroyed an ISIL fighting position and staging area.
The Obama administration had been pressing Ankara to play a larger role
against the extremists, who have taken control of large swaths of Syria and Iraq,
including territory on Turkey’s border.
US defense officials said that Turkey agreed to let US and coalition forces use its
bases, including a key installation within 100 miles of the Syrian border, for
operations against Islamic State (ISIL) militants in Syria and Iraq.
Beyond training and bases, there are other issues that US expects Turkey to
US officials have not said which issues they are because of ongoing discussions.
Lessons from the past twenty-five years put forward the need for NATO with a more global outlook, which
can only be achieved by a stable Europe.
As its principal outcome, the Wales Summit had an assurance of enduring credibility of NATO, and sent a
powerful message which guarantees the collective security of 28 members and Euro Atlantic
NATO must continue to serve both as an indispensable guarantor of transatlantic bond and our
collective defense, and as an essential tool for crisis management.
NATO is the ultima ratio guardian of liberty and security.
NATO is part of democratic peace and stability as well as a high-politics institution, and must therefore
engage far more effectively.
For the defense of our security capacity and our common democratic values, North America and
Europe are the backbones of our alliance.
NATO is the democracy and human rights keeper in Europe; the continent would not be united, free, or
peaceful without its power.
For today and tomorrow, NATO may continue to be our collective democratic defense club, which
guards the way for prosperity and development.
But in a wider perspective on partnership and cooperation principle, there is a highly important transition
in world affairs and ongoing developments; NATO is entering a new and unpredictable era as the
alliance shifts from operations to contingencies.
The Syrian and Ukrainian crises demonstrate the danger of several threats.
There is a new balance today, which necessitates the ability and capability of NATO to conduct
operations across the full spectrum of missions from stabilization and reconstruction to high-end war
In this regard, allies have to sharpen NATO’s decision making processes as well as its ability to deploy
NATO’s New Readiness Action Plan aims to provide the capability to rapidly deploy a force in an even
Also, the alliance’s existing Standing Naval Forces should be reorganized with a focus on the model of
co-operation and interoperability within the same rapid response capability against possible sudden
In conclusion, today NATO is entering the new-missions age, and allied states want to increase NATO’s
collective firepower and to achieve reasonable deterrence credibility as a collective security
phenomenon that deals with the aggression and threats of today.
SIGNIFICANCE OF UZBEKISTAN
Located at the heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan has an indispensable position in terms of peace
and stability in the region with its approximately 30 million population, geostrategic location, rich
cultural values and growing industry.
Uzbekistan is also the only country to have borders with all of the Central Asian Republics,
Uzbekistan is strategically located at the midpoint of the Modern Silk Road, thus attracting the
interest of Turkey.
Uzbekistan’s location facilitates the connection of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia to the Far East,
which brings significant opportunities.
Furthermore, Uzbekistan has the youngest and most intense population in the region.
The Uzbek population constitutes 46 percent of the total population of the Central Asian
While about 2 million Tajiks are living in Uzbekistan, Uzbeks constitute 2 percent of Kazakhstan’s
total population; 9.2 percent of Turkmenistan’s total population; 12.9 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s total
population; and 25 percent of Tajikistan’s total population.
For this reason, Uzbekistan’s growth has a direct impact on the other Central Asian countries.
NATURAL RESOURCES OF UZBEKISTAN
A total of 600 million barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas
reserves are available in Uzbekistan.
Oil and natural gas make up 16 percent of Uzbekistan’s GDP compared to
other energy-rich countries in the Caspian region.
In addition, energy items comprise 25 percent of the country’s exports.
This also shows that Uzbekistan’s economy is more diversified in comparison
to other energy-rich countries in the region—its industry has developed
while its dependence on energy has declined.
Most of the oil reserves in Uzbekistan are located in Bukhara-Khiva, Surhan-Darya and Ferghana regions.
As a net oil importer, the country’s oil production has declined in recent years.
Oil produced in Uzbekistan covers only 80 percent of its need, and the remaining amount is imported from Kazakhstan.
Uzbekistan is planning to overcome its dependence on foreign oil resources by producing shale oil.
The country holds 10 billion tons of proven and 47 billion tons of potential shale oil, which corresponds to 2.5 percent of the
total proven shale oil reserves in the world.
Shale oil in Uzbekistan has been explored in the Uchkyr, Urtabulak and Sangruntau fields.
Feasibility studies have started particularly in the Sangruntau field and production is expected to commence in 2018.
This development has the potential to decrease Uzbekistan’s oil dependence in the medium and long term and eventually
make it self-sufficient.
Moreover, there are 3 oil refineries in Uzbekistan: Ferghana, Altyaryk and Bukhara refineries.
Total capacity of these refineries is approximately 225,000 barrels per day.
However, due to the recent decline in oil production, Uzbekistan can only use 60 percent of this capacity.
The country imports crude oil, and exports processed oil through Kazakhstan and other neighboring countries by railway or
land. It also produces naphtha, gasoline and diesel at current refineries.
Uzbekistan holds around 3 trillion cubic meters proven and 6.7 trillion cubic meters potential natural gas reserves.
In the Caspian region, the country has the third highest natural gas production rate after Russia and Turkmenistan.
About 61 bcm of natural gas is produced in the country per year, and only 20 bcm is exported.
Due to its insufficient oil resources, natural gas constitutes 85 percent of total energy consumption in the country.
This rate is well beyond the average natural gas consumption in the world, which is around 24 percent.
In order to overcome this problem, Uzbekistan is planning to increase its natural gas production by 20 percent and decrease
the consumption by the same rate until 2020.
That means production is expected to increase to 73 bcm, whereas consumption decline to 32 bcm.
In this case it will be able to export 41 bcm annually.
Furthermore, there are 100 different mineral resources throughout the country.
These resources include gold, copper, uranium, potassium salts, kaolin, etc.
Uzbekistan has the 4th largest gold reserves, 7th largest uranium reserves and 10th largest copper reserves in the world.
These rich resources have also attracted foreign investors to Uzbekistan.
Regarded as the Project of the Century, Marmaray’s opening on October
29, 2013 was a vital step in reviving the Modern Silk Road.
After the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway becomes operational in 2015, an
uninterrupted railway route will be created from the Far East to Europe.
Uzbekistan has a key location in this regard. As the leading supplier of Asian
countries in the market and a high trade capacity with industrialized
European countries, the Modern Silk Road will offer new economic
opportunities for Central Asian countries.
Uzbekistan has a great potential for an expanded tourism industry in Central Asia.
Located on the Great Silk Road, linking Europe and Asia, Uzbekistan offers both historical
and cultural attractions.
Turkish tourists are attracted to its ancient cities like Bukhara, Samarkand, Tashkent, Khiva
Uzbekistan is among the top 10 countries globally with the highest number of historical
artifacts in the world.
Uzbekistan’s mineral-rich natural resources are also widely used to treat different diseases.
Conversely, Turkey is the most frequently visited country by Uzbek tourists.
The positive improvement in bilateral relations and Turkey’s visa-free regime for Uzbek
citizens led to a significant increase in the number of Uzbek tourists coming to Turkey.
Where to Go in Oil Prices
Oil prices have declined by more than $15 over the last three months and
have dipped slightly below $100.
The recent movement in oil prices is good news for countries that are
largely dependent on imported oil whereas countries that mostly rely on oil
revenues are concerned whether this decline in prices will continue.
It seems that the factors that affect the oil prices in the short-run and in the
long-run are quite different and therefore we need take into account these
differences when making projections about the future movements in oil
In the short-run news about demand and supply dynamics are largely
speculated in the market and oil prices are significantly affected from this
We should look at the recent price movements in that way and make our
forecasts based on that.
When northern Iraq city of Mosul was seized by ISIS at the beginning of
June, markets started to make a speculation that this might create a cut in
oil supply and prices have increased by more than 5% in two weeks’ time.
Later it was seen that developments in Iraq did not give a harm to oil
production and prices started to decline.
Investors who have taken a position by expecting an increase in prices probably closed
their positions and this has played a significant role in the recent decline in oil prices.
Another important factor that could explain the recent movement in prices is the
euro/dollar exchange rate.
One can easily see that over the last three months there emerged a very high correlation
(0.84) between euro/dollar exchange rate and oil prices.
It seems that in the short-run oil prices will continue to be affected from the developments
in euro/dollar exchange rate.
European Central Bank has recently reduced the interest rates and has announced that
they will buy more asset backed securities.
Accompanied by a slow economic growth in European Union, this means that the
downward pressure on Euro might continue for the next couple of months and this might
reflect itself as a decline in oil prices.
The slowdown in global economic growth and news related with this might also be
speculated in the market and this may also lead to a decline in prices in the short-run.
Although developments in financial markets are very important in
understanding and predicting oil prices in the short-run, market
fundamentals, that is demand and supply, play a bigger role in affecting oil
prices in the long-run.
In Asia-Pacific which accounts for one third of the total oil consumption in
the world demand has significantly slowed down in 2013.
While in 2011 and 2012 the whole increase in world’s total consumption has
come from Asia-Pacific, in 2013 this ratio has declined to 34%.
On the other hand in North America which is the second largest consumer
in the world, oil demand which has been declining since 2010, has shown a
large increase in 2013.
In Europe the economic recovery is still very slow and demand stays
In Middle East demand has been steadily increasing as it is in Asia-Pacific.
However as the share of this region in total consumption is only 9.2% the
increase in oil demand has a limited impact in prices.
In the long-run it seems that there will not be a rapid economic growth in
Asia-Pacific as it was the case over the last decade.
Besides that many developing countries are facing lower economic growth
Therefore, we will probably not see huge increases in oil demand for the
next couple of years.
On the supply side we need to watch the developments about two very important countries for oil markets.
These are Iran and Iraq.
The total proved reserves of Iraq and Iran is around 307 billion barrels and this number is more than three times the reserves
that Russia owns.
However, when we look at the actual production the total oil supply of Iran and Iraq is only 62% of Russian supply.
These numbers reveal that Iraq and Iran has a huge potential in terms of meeting the future increase in oil demand.
If the embargoes on Iran are loosened and the political stability is achieved in Iraq they can easily produce up to 7-8 million
barrels per day.
Especially Iraq could reach these levels in a very short period of time. These developments on the supply side might put a
downward pressure in oil prices in the long-run.
Both the short-run and long-run dynamics reveal that the downward trend in oil prices might continue for a while.
However, we should take into account that fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas, will continue to be a major source of
energy for the world and large price declines will not be possible.
Gas Transmission Network in Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan, rather than Uzbekistan, has been the chief exporter of natural
gas via the Central Asia-Centre pipeline.
In the past over 90% of Turkmenistan's natural gas exports have been
directed through the eastern branch of the pipeline, mainly because the
majority of Turkmen natural gas production is in the eastern part of the
Qara Qum desert, but also because the western branch of the pipeline is in
poor technical condition.
Turkmenistan has had a supply agreement with Russia’s Gazprom for some
years and has been exporting a growing volume of gas to Russia,
exceeding 40 billion cubic metres in 2005.
Gazprom has a separate agreement with Uztransgaz for the transmission of
Turkmen gas through the Uzbek pipeline network for delivery to Russia.
That Iranian Equation
In Beijing, they take the matter of diversifying oil supplies very, very seriously.
When oil reached $150 a barrel in 2008 – before the U.S.-unleashed global
financial meltdown hit – Chinese state media had taken to calling foreign
Big Oil “international petroleum crocodiles,” with the implication that the
West’s hidden agenda was ultimately to stop China’s relentless
development dead in its tracks.
Twenty-eight percent of what’s left of the world’s proven oil reserves are in
the Arab world.
China could easily gobble it all up.
Few may know that China itself is actually the world’s fifth largest oil
producer, at 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd), just below Iran and slightly
In 1980, China consumed only 3 percent of the world’s oil.
Now, its take is around 10 percent, making it the planet’s second largest
It has already surpassed Japan in that category, even if it’s still way behind
the U.S., which eats up 27 percent of global oil each year.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China will account for over 40
percent of the increase in global oil demand until 2030.
And that’s assuming China will grow at “only” a 6 percent annual rate which, based on
present growth, seems unlikely.
Saudi Arabia controls 13 percent of world oil production.
At the moment, it is the only swing producer – one, that is, that can move the amount of oil
being pumped up or down at will – capable of substantially increasing output.
It’s no accident, then, that, pumping 500,000 bpd, it has become one of Beijing’s major oil
The top three, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce, are Saudi Arabia, Iran, and
By 2013-2014, if all goes well, the Chinese expect to add Iraq to that list in a big way, but
first that troubled country’s oil production needs to start cranking up.
In the meantime, it’s the Iranian part of the Eurasian energy equation that’s really nerve-
racking for China’s leaders.
Chinese companies have invested a staggering $120 billion in Iran’s energy
sector over the past five years.
Already Iran is China’s number two oil supplier, accounting for up to 14 percent
of its imports; and the Chinese energy giant Sinopec has committed an
additional $6.5 billion to building oil refineries there.
Due to harsh U.N.-imposed and American sanctions and years of economic
mismanagement, however, the country lacks the high-tech know-how to
provide for itself, and its industrial structure is in a shambles.
The head of the National Iranian Oil Company, Ahmad Ghalebani, has publicly
admitted that machinery and parts used in Iran’s oil production still have to be
imported from China.
Sanctions can be a killer, slowing investment, increasing the cost of trade by
over 20 percent, and severely constricting Tehran’s ability to borrow in global
Nonetheless, trade between China and Iran grew by 35 percent in 2009 to $27
So while the West has been slamming Iran with sanctions, embargoes, and
blockades, Iran has been slowly evolving as a crucial trade corridor for China –
as well as Russia and energy-poor India.
Unlike the West, they are all investing like crazy there because it’s easy to get
concessions from the government; it’s easy and relatively cheap to build
infrastructure; and being on the inside when it comes to Iranian energy reserves
is a necessity for any country that wants to be a crucial player in Pipelineistan,
that contested chessboard of crucial energy pipelines over which much of the
New Great Game in Eurasia takes place.
Undoubtedly, the leaders of all three countries are offering thanks to whatever
gods they care to worship that Washington continues to make it so easy (and
lucrative) for them.
Few in the U.S. may know that last year Saudi Arabia – now (re)arming to
the teeth, courtesy of Washington, and little short of paranoid about the
Iranian nuclear program – offered to supply the Chinese with the same
amount of oil the country currently imports from Iran at a much cheaper
But Beijing, for whom Iran is a key long-term strategic ally, scotched the
As if Iran’s structural problems weren’t enough, the country has done little to diversify its economy
beyond oil and natural gas exports in the past 30 years; inflation’s running at more than 20
percent; unemployment at more than 20 percent; and young, well-educated people are fleeing
abroad, a major brain drain for that embattled land.
And don’t think that’s the end of its litany of problems.
It would like to be a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – the multi-
layered economic/military cooperation union that is a sort of Asian response to NATO – but is only
an official SCO observer because the group does not admit any country under U.N. sanctions.
Tehran, in other words, would like some great power protection against the possibility of an
attack from the U.S. or Israel.
As much as Iran may be on the verge of becoming a far more influential player in the Central
Asian energy game thanks to Russian and Chinese investment, it’s extremely unlikely that either of
those countries would actually risk war against the U.S. to “save” the Iranian regime.
The Great Escape
From Beijing’s point of view, the title of the movie version of the intractable U.S. vs. Iran conflict
and a simmering U.S. vs. China strategic competition in Pipelineistan could be Escape From
Hormuz and Malacca.
The Strait of Hormuz is the definition of a potential strategic bottleneck.
It is, after all, the only entryway to the Persian Gulf and through it now flow roughly 20 percent of
China’s oil imports.
At its narrowest, it is only 36 kilometers wide, with Iran to the north and Oman to the south.
China’s leaders fret about the constant presence of U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups on station
and patrolling nearby.
With Singapore to the North and Indonesia to the south, the Strait of Malacca is another potential
bottleneck if ever there was one – and through it flow as much as 80 percent of China’s oil
At its narrowest, it is only 54 kilometers wide and like the Strait of Hormuz, its security is also of the
In a future face-off with Washington, both straits could quickly be closed or controlled by the U.S.
Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the
Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint due to its
daily oil flow of about 17 million bbl/d in 2011.
Flows throught the Strait in 2011 were roughly 35 percent of all seaborne oil,
or almost 20 percent of oil traded worldwide.
More than 85 percent of these crude oil exports went to Asian markets, with
Japan, India, South Korea and China reprensenting the largest destinations.
In addition, Qatar exports about 2 trillion cubic feet per year of liquefied
natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for almost 20
percent of global LNG trade.
At its narrowest point, the Strait is 21 miles wide, but the width of the
shipping lane in either direction is only two miles, separated by a two-mile
The Strait is deep and wide enough to handle the world’s largest crude oil
tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of
150,000 deadweight tons.
Most potential options to bypass Hormuz are currently not operational.
Only Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) presently have
pipelines able to ship crude oil outside of the Gulf, and only the latter two
countries currently have additional pipeline capacity to circumvent
At the start of 2012, the total available pipeline capacity from the two
countries combined, which is not utilized, was approximately 1 million bbl/d.
The amount could potentially increase to 4.3 bbl/d by the end of this year,
as both countries have recently completed steps to increase standby
pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait.
Iraq has one major crude oil pipeline, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline (Iraq-
Turkey) that transports oil from the north of Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean
port of Ceyhan.
This pipeline pumped about 0.4 million bbl/d in 2011, far below its
nameplate capacity of 1.6 million bbl/d and it has been the target of
Moreover this pipeline cannot send additional volumes to bypass the Strait
of Hormuz unless it receives oil from southern Iraq via the Strategic Pipeline,
which links northern and southern Iraq.
Currently portions of the Strategic Pipeline are closed and renovations to
the Strategic Pipeline could take several years to complete.
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Energy Security and Transition Nature of the
New Radical Religious Terrorism Threat in the
Different than Cold War era, energy security nature lives an untraditional transformation in the Middle East.
From the international relations picture, our planet is being shaken, but the persistence of religion is more a symptom than a
In each of these conflicts in Iraq and Syria, it is a clash among Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, Turkmen, and others; in Nigeria, among
Muslims, Christians, and assorted tribal groupings; in South Sudan, between the Dinka and Nuer.
Indeed, radical groups can control energy and water resources including pipelines with economic dimensions.
Iraq’s political crisis worsened, NATO declared a “high probability” of Russian military intervention in Ukraine and Gaza
remained on a knife edge.
Just after Israel’s Gaza Operation, the two remains a cause of concern and the Syrian civil war is spilling over to the wider
region, what has dominated international headlines in recent days has been the sudden flare-up in Iraq.
Jihadist groups around the world are growing ever more dangerous.
The UN Security Council warned that ISIS posed a threat not only to Iraq and Syria but to “regional peace, security and
Also, from the Vatican, side, Pope Francis renewed his appeal for peace and the "end of the humanitarian tragedy taking
place in Iraq".
These critical developments described by the US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel “The world is exploding all over.
Initially we look from the American perspective in Iraq and main arguments of the USAF
Of course it is a difficult matter giving legitimized military support to Washington different
than 2003 Iraq operation that Iraq government has authorized the US to conduct against
ISIS fighters in Iraq.
Also UN Security Council criticises ISIS attack from humanitarian perspective and
international law perspectives.
Pentagon has started the deepest American engagement in Iraq since US troops withdrew
in late 2011.
US President Barack Obama has authorized targeted air strikes against Islamic militants in
Iraq, as the US military began an airborne operation to bring relief to thousands of minority
Iraqis driven to a grim, mountain-top refuge.
Describing the threats against stranded Yazidi refugees as holding the potential for
“genocide”, the president said he had authorized limited air strikes to help Iraqi forces.
Although the joint US-Turkish air base at İncirlik appears to have been used in the delivery of humanitarian relief, the US has
launched air strikes from the USS George HW Bush carrier in the Gulf, possibly without the consideration of Turkey's hostage
Obama said he would “not allow the United States to be dragged into fighting another war” but added that strikes would
continue “if necessary”.
Obama has deployed humanitarian terms ("to prevent a potential act of genocide") as well as self-interest ("to protect our
American armed drones currently patrol the skies above Baghdad.
Not only are they carrying out terrorist attacks with virtual impunity, as events in Iraq have shown, they are capable of
controlling ever more territory and recruiting ever more fighters.
The struggle over energy resources has been a conspicuous factor in many recent conflicts, including the Iran-Iraq War of
1980-1988, the Gulf War of 1990-1991, and the Sudanese Civil War of 1983-2005.
At first glance, the fossil-fuel factor in the most recent outbreaks of tension and fighting may seem less evident.
But look more closely and we can discriminate that each of these conflicts is, at heart, an energy and water war.
The current conflict also affects the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose slightly as fighting intensified before steadying
Now let us discuss why the nature of terrorism is under transition in Iraq and
Of course, it is a reality that new waves of terrorism have endorsed a
complex threat to peace and security in Iraq, the entire region and
Sectarian tensions in the region, particularly those emanating from the crisis
in Syria, and domestic Iraqi politics provide background drivers for the
strengthening of local militant groups.
Attacks by these groups are increasing, but not as rapidly as the al-Qaeda
The radical Islamic terrorist organization has unleashed using violence, mass murder, and destruction
over nearly one-third of Iraq.
Thus, terrorist groups have targeting incentives including intimidation levels, symbolism, attack feasibility,
and concerns for stakeholders.
We argue that terrorists in general have comparatively few incentives to attack energy supply
infrastructures based on our assessment of these factors.
On the other hand, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) continues to strengthen its position,
making unprecedented territorial gains.
The group, which has declared a caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria to rule over all Muslims, poses the
biggest challenge to the stability of OPEC member Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
The United Nations Security Council met in an emergency session to discuss the crisis in Iraq, calling on
the governments of the international community to assist Baghdad in dealing with the humanitarian crisis
caused by the jihad offensive in the north of the country.
The UN Security Council notes with concern that any oilfields and related infrastructure controlled by
terrorist organizations could generate material income for terrorists, which would support their
recruitment efforts, including foreign terrorist fighters, and strengthen their operational capability to
organize and carry out terrorist attacks.
In Syria, the degradation of the state has been the consequence of a civil war in which the
government of Bashar al-Assad has turned its fire on its own people.
In Iraq, the explanation comes in two parts. First, the US-led invasion of 2003 smashed the
Second, the current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has hollowed out what was left,
eviscerating national institutions lest they pose a challenge to him and his narrow Shia
Most importantly, he orders the Iraqi army, seeing a body of one million men under arms as
a personal threat rather than a national asset.
The weakening of ISIS in Syria may provide an opening for the regime of Bashar al-Assad to
strengthen its position.
But most importantly, the ISIS offensive comes at a time when global oil markets could
soon look tight due to supply disruptions in a number of big producers, and it could have
important knock-on effects on Iraqi oil production over the medium term.
ISIS has realized sudden, short-term disruptions seriously endangering the energy security.
ISIS fighters have seized the control of Iraq's electricity-generating Mosul’s biggest dam, Ain
Zalah oilfield and three more towns since sweeping across much of northern Iraq.
In some respects, it is a fanatical, sectarian religious organization, seeking to reproduce the
pure, uncorrupted piety of the early Islamic era.
At the same time, it is engaged in a conventional nation-building project, seeking to
create a fully functioning state with all its attributes.
ISIS seeks both to deny petroleum supplies and oil revenue to the Baghdad government
and enhancing its capacity for nation-building and further military advances.
ISIS also have seized Iraq's largest oil refinery at Baiji, which was previously under the control
of Sunni militants who used to siphon off crude and petroleum products to finance their
However, as it now occupies the key oil-producing areas of Syria and oil-refining facilities in
Iraq, it is in a unique position to do so.
Oil, then, is absolutely essential to the organization’s grand strategy.
It appears that ISIS sells oil from the fields it controls to shadowy middlemen who in turn
arrange for its transport — mostly by tanker trucks — to buyers in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.
ISIS deal in Iraq's energy supply region has resulted more than % 12 increase.
These sales are said to provide the organization with the funds needed to pay its troops
and acquire its vast stockpiles of arms and ammunition.
Many observers also claim that ISIS is selling oil to the Assad regime in return for immunity
from government air strikes of the sort being launched against other rebel groups.
They are very well organized, very well equipped, they coordinate their operations and
they have thus far shown the ability to attack on multiple axes.