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Intelligence 2.0   an Overview of the Next Generation Priorities for CI Software to See Clearly, Think Ahead and Break Through Arik R. Johnson CICI CI & BI Software Summit Founder & Chairman Beijing China Aurora WDC Friday 6 March 2009
Who is Aurora WDC? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Three Intelligence Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why do cars have brakes?
[object Object],Why do cars have brakes? Most people would say brakes help slow you down… we think brakes help you go faster.
Competitive Intelligence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is about “Seeing Clearly” through Market Illusions
The 12 Application Priorities of CI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning &  Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users &  Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle
CI is About Better Decision-Making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Porter’s Five Forces
CI is a Critical Element in Strategy COMMERCIAL MARKET STRUCTURE & RESOURCES Strategic Position Strategic Position Competitive Position Market Attractiveness Scope & Context Strategic Issues Insight Stakeholder Score Card Financial Position Growth Economic Profitability Critical Success Factors & Key Performance Indicators  Performance Monitoring & Incentive Compensation Organizational Design Projects & Resources CAPITAL MARKET MANAGED PERFORMANCE Chosen Strategy Scenarios & Options Creativity Strategy Execution Strategy Formulation
Key Intelligence Topics (KITs) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KITs – Strategic Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KITs – Key Players ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KITs – Early Warning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Creating the Integrated Watch List ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source Extraction & Pattern Recognition Aggregate content, tag & categorize Hypertext links to similar content Personalization from forms/questionnaires  geodemographic profiling   Searching for information E-mailing  information to relevant  recipients Reformatting for multi- channel delivery, e.g. PDF to XML Answering customer inquiries via a help desk Manual Processes Process Automation Aggregation Automatic Categorization Hyperlinking Profiling Personalization Collaboration Delivery Retrieval Routing Alerting Integration Through Understanding Information  Theory  and Bayesian  Inference Notes News  Feeds Email Internet Database Files Document Management XML Audio/ Media
Research Collection Sources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],No Company Operates in Isolation Information is exchanged everywhere money is exchanged.
SCIP Code of Ethics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analysis is Key The Difference Between Data and Intelligence “ The competitor would make a good acquisition candidate. Its lean & mean structure would fit well with our current operations.” Intelligence: The insight that will allow you to make an informed decision “ After gathering more operational information and running a side-by-side profit & loss analysis, it appears the competitor has become highly efficient. It exceeds industry standards and has become a best-in-class facility.” Analysis: Distilled information “ Based on the D&B and the salesperson’s report, it appears the competitor has lost business.” Information: A pooling of these bits of facts, observations and rumors 2001: “The D&B report told us that the competitors plant had 100 employees.” 2004: “One of our salespeople just passed by the competitor’s plant and spotted only 30 cars in the lot.” Data: Scattered bits and pieces of facts, observations and rumors
Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence
STEEP (Macro Environmental) Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Product Life Cycle
Growth Vector Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],  Present Products Improved Products New Products Existing Market Market Penetration Product Extension Product Development Expanded Market Market Extension Market Segmentation / Product Differentiation Product Development / Market Extension New Market Market Development Product/Service Extension & Market Development Diversification
“ Competitive Strategy” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Marketing Warfare
Evolutionary Intelligence Parallels in Business & Government ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
U.S. IC Apparatus Failed to Evolve ,[object Object]
Connecting Emergent Phenomena
Parallel Reforms Create Equilibrium ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Marshall McLuhan ,[object Object],Strategy is concerned with what the corporation wants to do in the world. Intelligence is focused on what the world wants to do next, to the corporation, whether they know it or not but also beyond it.
[object Object],[object Object],Look Beyond the Current Business Peter Drucker
Success Breeds Complacency ,[object Object],[object Object]
“ Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat especially when markets are flat or growing slowly. Managers caught in this kind of competition almost universally say they dislike it and wish they could find a better alternative. They often know instinctively that innovation is the only way they can break free from the pack. But they simply don’t know where to begin. Admonitions to develop more creative strategies or to think outside of the box are rarely accompanied by practical advice.” Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne
The Ten Types of Innovation
10 Examples
Most Attempts at Innovation Fail But by integrating three types of insights -  customer needs, competitive patterns, and a company's own capabilities  - and combining them with solid protocols, innovation becomes a routine competence and companies can double or triple their success rates. And the really big hits are often the products that innovate in not one but two or three or more "innovation spaces."
Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
Disruptive Technology
Customers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”
RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.
Value Chain Evolution Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance
Customer Demand & Signals of Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Established Companies almost always Lose to Disruptive Innovators
Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
Welcome to Intelligence 2.0 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Reconnaissance Continuum includes  Both  Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Framework for Interpretation Recognize “Pattern Vector” History Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Trends Outcome is Often Observation Itself Emergent & Theoretical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Current Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Imposition Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual & Hypothetical
RECON ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Five Simple Rules of Engagement to Turn your Workforce into a Force to be Reckoned With
RISK Ensuring against risk to the core business is critical to making sure there is time for investments in new growth to start paying off. Maintaining a positive status quo by protecting the core is the chief role for managers in every business, with one caveat: good businesses can often be the foremost enemy of great businesses. Cannibalization of current market share should not exclude innovative ideas.
EFFICIENCY The ruthless cutting away of unnecessary costs in the value chain is essential for a new market innovation strategy to work. Create or build up that which is not yet good enough and diminish or destroy that which is unnecessary. Most of the unnecessary elements in the incumbent value chain have long-since outlived their usefulness or were never very important to customers in the first place .
CUSTOMERS Companies become too dependent on their best customers’ input for signals about how they should innovate. New forms of competition usually present themselves at the current consumption market. The day your customers begin complaining about how complicated or expensive or difficult your product is, you should ask, “why was it good enough for them yesterday” and who has offered an alternative?
OUTLOOK Traditional market segmentation based on demographic, geographic or sociographic data are fleeting at best and illusory at worst and many decisions have been based on flawed definitions of the fastest growing markets. Defining the market by the “jobs” customers wish to accomplish is more helpful in defining fast growing target markets. Focus groups are often the worst mechanism of market testing.
NOVELTY Differentiation is mandatory for all organizations to master and new market or “novel” solutions to customer problems are often ecosystems of providers working together to produce sought-after value. Companies must build a business model designed to test breakthroughs in the market more regularly. But the firm must also kill off those that do not work early on, so support and development resources can be allocated to those that do.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
Emergence of the Intelligence Community & Think Tank Model for TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION
Final Questions or Comments? ,[object Object],Arik R. Johnson Consulting & Training Institute [email_address] +01-715-720-1616 Derek L. Johnson Research & Analysis Bureau [email_address] +01-608-268-3470

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Intelligence 2.0 Keynote Presentation to the 1st China Competitive Intelligence Software Summit in Beijing PRC

  • 1. Intelligence 2.0 an Overview of the Next Generation Priorities for CI Software to See Clearly, Think Ahead and Break Through Arik R. Johnson CICI CI & BI Software Summit Founder & Chairman Beijing China Aurora WDC Friday 6 March 2009
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  • 5. Why do cars have brakes?
  • 6.
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  • 8. Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is about “Seeing Clearly” through Market Illusions
  • 9.
  • 10. Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning & Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users & Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle
  • 11.
  • 13. CI is a Critical Element in Strategy COMMERCIAL MARKET STRUCTURE & RESOURCES Strategic Position Strategic Position Competitive Position Market Attractiveness Scope & Context Strategic Issues Insight Stakeholder Score Card Financial Position Growth Economic Profitability Critical Success Factors & Key Performance Indicators Performance Monitoring & Incentive Compensation Organizational Design Projects & Resources CAPITAL MARKET MANAGED PERFORMANCE Chosen Strategy Scenarios & Options Creativity Strategy Execution Strategy Formulation
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  • 19. Source Extraction & Pattern Recognition Aggregate content, tag & categorize Hypertext links to similar content Personalization from forms/questionnaires geodemographic profiling Searching for information E-mailing information to relevant recipients Reformatting for multi- channel delivery, e.g. PDF to XML Answering customer inquiries via a help desk Manual Processes Process Automation Aggregation Automatic Categorization Hyperlinking Profiling Personalization Collaboration Delivery Retrieval Routing Alerting Integration Through Understanding Information Theory and Bayesian Inference Notes News Feeds Email Internet Database Files Document Management XML Audio/ Media
  • 20.
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  • 22. Analysis is Key The Difference Between Data and Intelligence “ The competitor would make a good acquisition candidate. Its lean & mean structure would fit well with our current operations.” Intelligence: The insight that will allow you to make an informed decision “ After gathering more operational information and running a side-by-side profit & loss analysis, it appears the competitor has become highly efficient. It exceeds industry standards and has become a best-in-class facility.” Analysis: Distilled information “ Based on the D&B and the salesperson’s report, it appears the competitor has lost business.” Information: A pooling of these bits of facts, observations and rumors 2001: “The D&B report told us that the competitors plant had 100 employees.” 2004: “One of our salespeople just passed by the competitor’s plant and spotted only 30 cars in the lot.” Data: Scattered bits and pieces of facts, observations and rumors
  • 23. Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence
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  • 35. “ Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat especially when markets are flat or growing slowly. Managers caught in this kind of competition almost universally say they dislike it and wish they could find a better alternative. They often know instinctively that innovation is the only way they can break free from the pack. But they simply don’t know where to begin. Admonitions to develop more creative strategies or to think outside of the box are rarely accompanied by practical advice.” Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne
  • 36. The Ten Types of Innovation
  • 38. Most Attempts at Innovation Fail But by integrating three types of insights - customer needs, competitive patterns, and a company's own capabilities - and combining them with solid protocols, innovation becomes a routine competence and companies can double or triple their success rates. And the really big hits are often the products that innovate in not one but two or three or more "innovation spaces."
  • 39. Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
  • 41. Customers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”
  • 42. RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.
  • 43.
  • 44. Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance
  • 45.
  • 46. Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
  • 47.
  • 48. The Reconnaissance Continuum includes Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Framework for Interpretation Recognize “Pattern Vector” History Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Trends Outcome is Often Observation Itself Emergent & Theoretical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Current Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Imposition Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual & Hypothetical
  • 49.
  • 50. RISK Ensuring against risk to the core business is critical to making sure there is time for investments in new growth to start paying off. Maintaining a positive status quo by protecting the core is the chief role for managers in every business, with one caveat: good businesses can often be the foremost enemy of great businesses. Cannibalization of current market share should not exclude innovative ideas.
  • 51. EFFICIENCY The ruthless cutting away of unnecessary costs in the value chain is essential for a new market innovation strategy to work. Create or build up that which is not yet good enough and diminish or destroy that which is unnecessary. Most of the unnecessary elements in the incumbent value chain have long-since outlived their usefulness or were never very important to customers in the first place .
  • 52. CUSTOMERS Companies become too dependent on their best customers’ input for signals about how they should innovate. New forms of competition usually present themselves at the current consumption market. The day your customers begin complaining about how complicated or expensive or difficult your product is, you should ask, “why was it good enough for them yesterday” and who has offered an alternative?
  • 53. OUTLOOK Traditional market segmentation based on demographic, geographic or sociographic data are fleeting at best and illusory at worst and many decisions have been based on flawed definitions of the fastest growing markets. Defining the market by the “jobs” customers wish to accomplish is more helpful in defining fast growing target markets. Focus groups are often the worst mechanism of market testing.
  • 54. NOVELTY Differentiation is mandatory for all organizations to master and new market or “novel” solutions to customer problems are often ecosystems of providers working together to produce sought-after value. Companies must build a business model designed to test breakthroughs in the market more regularly. But the firm must also kill off those that do not work early on, so support and development resources can be allocated to those that do.
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  • 65. Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
  • 66. Emergence of the Intelligence Community & Think Tank Model for TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION
  • 67.