Diese Präsentation wurde erfolgreich gemeldet.
Die SlideShare-Präsentation wird heruntergeladen. ×

Rethinking residential real estate: 2023 and beyond

Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Anzeige
Wird geladen in …3
×

Hier ansehen

1 von 84 Anzeige

Rethinking residential real estate: 2023 and beyond

Herunterladen, um offline zu lesen

The past few years have accelerated underlying trends in how people live, work, and play within the built environment. At the same time, technology has democratized access to capital and information, changing the way residents use physical space. Value is shifting away from the assets themselves toward those who understand the needs of specific end users and can use technology to deliver comprehensive, on-demand solutions. With all of these changes, there is an urgent need for operators to think differently about their properties, customers, and competition.

In this webinar, Dror Poleg shares his perspectives based on two decades of experience working across four continents alongside the world’s leading real estate investors. Watch now to receive key insights on how to take advantage of emerging opportunities and transform your organization, project, venture, or career.

The past few years have accelerated underlying trends in how people live, work, and play within the built environment. At the same time, technology has democratized access to capital and information, changing the way residents use physical space. Value is shifting away from the assets themselves toward those who understand the needs of specific end users and can use technology to deliver comprehensive, on-demand solutions. With all of these changes, there is an urgent need for operators to think differently about their properties, customers, and competition.

In this webinar, Dror Poleg shares his perspectives based on two decades of experience working across four continents alongside the world’s leading real estate investors. Watch now to receive key insights on how to take advantage of emerging opportunities and transform your organization, project, venture, or career.

Anzeige
Anzeige

Weitere Verwandte Inhalte

Weitere von AppFolio (20)

Aktuellste (20)

Anzeige

Rethinking residential real estate: 2023 and beyond

  1. 1. 1 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential Rethinking residential real estate: 2023 and beyond We’ll get started soon
  2. 2. 2 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential December 6th, 2022 Rethinking residential real estate: 2023 and beyond
  3. 3. 3 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential As an attendee: ● Lines are muted, but your participation via chat is encouraged! ● Please ask questions via the chat or Q&A module ● Stick around for a bonus Q&A session at the end of the hour ● Let us know how we did via the post-webinar survey ● The recording and slides will be sent to you
  4. 4. 4 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential Author of Rethinking Real Estate, an award-winning book that predicted the current reshuffle of offices, homes, and cities. His insights have been featured in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, NBC, Bloomberg, and beyond Trusted advisor to the world's largest financial institutions, technology firms, and property owners including UBS, Bank of America, HSBC, BCG, AvalonBay, CBRE, Hines, Cushman & Wakefield and others. Economic Historian Dror Poleg Presenter
  5. 5. Rethinking Residential 2023 and Beyond Dror Poleg • AppFolio Webinar • December 2022 DrorPoleg.com
  6. 6. Who is this?
  7. 7. A YouTube prank…
  8. 8. 1,000 locations in less than a year
  9. 9. Location Relationship
  10. 10. Over the next hour… 1. What’s going on? 2. What does it mean for housing? 3. How can you make the most of it? Drop your questions in the chat
  11. 11. What’s going on?
  12. 12. The good news: A shortage of 3.8 million housing units Source: Freddie Mac
  13. 13. Lodging & Housing are converging: Airbnb in 2021… Source: Yahoo Finance 24% 100,000 Bookings of 28-days or longer Booked for 3-months or longer
  14. 14. “Airbnb is launching a listing service for rental apartments with some of the biggest landlords and property managers in the country, a bid to expand its business in multifamily buildings"
  15. 15. We thought Airbnb was disrupting hotels…
  16. 16. “Startup” brands are moving upmarket
  17. 17. Even Adam Neumann is back…
  18. 18. What did office landlords learn from Neumann? (higher OpEx, lower-quality leases, “unreasonable” market)
  19. 19. iBuyers have grown — and faltered — and evolved…
  20. 20. Inspiring a wave of multifamily iBuyers? (not yet… but tech is democratizing access to market data and capital)
  21. 21. Tech also enables big players move into smaller assets
  22. 22. Technology is changing demand patterns (people are getting old, but they’re not moving out…) Source: IPUMS Current Population Survey / NYT
  23. 23. Technology is changing demand patterns (people are growing up, but they aren’t forming new households) Source: Pew Research
  24. 24. And supply patterns… The conversation around zoning and ADU is heating up
  25. 25. Remote/hybrid working is reshuffling the world Source: NY Federal Reserve / Liberty Street Economics
  26. 26. …but offices are in trouble. Source: Placer.ai
  27. 27. 40% of software jobs now offer “remote” Source: Indeed.com
  28. 28. “Software Developers” are not just tech’s problem
  29. 29. Many in-person services are no longer tied to location Source: McKinsey & Co.
  30. 30. Even public education is going online Source: WSJ / Rand Corp. | New York Times "Roughly 26% of the 291 (school) districts were offering remote lessons as a full-time option last year, compared with 3% before the pandemic."
  31. 31. This has an effect on where people choose to live Source: Brookings / Census Bureau
  32. 32. … and on rents Source: Bloom & Ramani / Zillow
  33. 33. …and on where housing can be built Source: Federal Reserve Bank of KC
  34. 34. Meanwhile, everyone’s “solution” is everyone’s problem
  35. 35. With direct consequences for housing… 28,000 new apartments “converted” in 2020-2021 Source: New York Times / Rent Cafe
  36. 36. And more than 50,000 on the way by 2025 Source: CBRE
  37. 37. Institutional investors are running away from offices Source:WSJ / NCREIF
  38. 38. Some landlords are starting to face the music…
  39. 39. “It’s a huge market. Our acquisition group is solely focused on this right now.” — Marty Burger, CEO, Silverstein Properties
  40. 40. Most office landlords are stuck in The 5 Stages of RE Grief 🙈 Denial 2020: “It’s just temporary, everyone will come back…” 😾 Anger 2021: “Employees must come to the office!” 🥺 Bargaining 2022: “How about 3 days a week?! Free childcare?!” 😿 Depression 2023: “Sell it while you can…” 󰠺 Acceptance 2024: “OK, let’s try something else…”
  41. 41. All these changes will continue…
  42. 42. Is it enough to make a difference? E-Commerce Sales as % of Total (U.S.)
  43. 43. How will the office “apocalypse” affects housing? More institutional investment demand for multifamily New, unpredictable supply More space for housing-adjacent services (storage, cloud kitchens, laundry, healthcare, education) More competition More opportunity to reposition locations More opportunity for community and meaning outside the office
  44. 44. What makes real estate valuable? Location Visibility Accessibility Information Capital Regulation ● Location: Not scarce, no longer the main anchor ● Visibility: What it looks like online vs. what it looks like offline ● Accessibility: The journey begins online ● Information: No longer exclusive to insiders ● Capital: No longer exclusive, new sources available to anyone ● Regulation: No longer makes the world “predictable”
  45. 45. What does it all mean?
  46. 46. 47 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential 47 Question Break
  47. 47. What does it all mean?
  48. 48. The Bottom Line Strong demand for apartments — as a product and as an investment asset More competition, along new dimensions, more flexibility, less certainty
  49. 49. Doing the same things better
  50. 50. Doing different things
  51. 51. What makes a good strategy? Unique Value Proposition Unique Activities Clear Trade-Offs Interdependent Activities Implemented Continuously
  52. 52. Exhibit 1: Common Living
  53. 53. Exhibit 1: Common Living Unique Value Proposition Affordable, furnished room in a serviced apartment + flexible terms Unique Activities Online platform, design, legal, services, Clear Trade-Offs Not for everyone… Interdependent Activities Can’t lease by-the-room without all the other activities Implemented Continuously Yes
  54. 54. Exhibit 2: Kanso by AvalonBay
  55. 55. Exhibit 2: Kanso by AvalonBay Unique Value Proposition Affordable urban living Unique Activities Tech, site visits, design Clear Trade-Offs No staff, no elevators, no leasing office, no parking Interdependent Activities Design, systems, marketing, operations Implemented Continuously Recently started…
  56. 56. Exhibit 3: Sonder
  57. 57. Exhibit 3: Sonder Unique Value Proposition “Airbnb authenticity with hotel-quality service” Unique Activities Assets, design, app, marketing, support services Clear Trade-Offs No standard product, smaller assets, no lobby, no restaurant, no on-site staff Interdependent Activities Yes Implemented Continuously So far… publicly listed company
  58. 58. Exhibit 4: CitizenM
  59. 59. Exhibit 4: CitizenM Unique Value Proposition Affordable luxury in a great location Unique Activities Proprietary hardware and software, modular construction, membership club Clear Trade-Offs Tiny rooms, smaller buildings / floor plates, no restaurants, no room service, limited amenities Interdependent Activities Can’t achieve pricing and experience without integration Implemented Continuously 14 years… recently backed by GIC, APG
  60. 60. Exhibit 5: Airbnb
  61. 61. Exhibit 5: Airbnb Unique Value Proposition Short-term stay in a local apartment Unique Activities Online platform, insurance, safety response team, photographers, identity verification, online marketing, community management Clear Trade-Offs Lack of standardized supply, limited control over customer experience Interdependent Activities You can’t convince someone to stay at a stranger’s apartment without all the above… Implemented Continuously 14 years, $63b market cap
  62. 62. What if they fail? (that’s part of the game)
  63. 63. 66 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential 66 Question Break
  64. 64. Keep an eye on low-end customers and non-customers Traditional Mainstream Product (improves over time) Disruptive Competitor Features / Quality Time high end low end mainstream Based on the work of Clayton M. Christensen
  65. 65. Beware the “Innovator’s Dilemma” ➔ Listening to your best customers? ➔ Chasing attractive margins? ➔ Outsourcing low value activities? ➔ Focusing on fixed and sunk costs? ➔ Focusing on largest markets? ➔ Making decisions based on clear data? ➔ Trying to avoid failure?
  66. 66. Focus on “Jobs to be Done” (your customer’s circumstances and specific goal)
  67. 67. Keep an eye on informal behaviors Designed Path Desired Path Source: Point Forward
  68. 68. Profit / Value Add Value Chain Activities Keep an eye on low-value activities & points of friction Sales & Marketing Development / Ownership Branding Customer Support User Interface Concept & Design Components
  69. 69. How do you choose when all options are “good enough”? Buildings
  70. 70. Profit / Value Add Value Chain Activities The Smiling Curve: Value flows away from the asset/owner Unique Components Marketing Development / Ownership Branding Customer Support Unique Relationship Concept & Design 😊
  71. 71. Address barriers to innovation (structure, incentives, time horizon) University Endowment Pension Fund Family Office REIT Partner PE Fund Property Mgr. Cleaning Co. Security Co. Maintenance Co. Mortgage Provider Private Debt Fund
  72. 72. Stay close to your customers!
  73. 73. Thank you. Keep in touch. @drorpoleg Dror Poleg DrorPoleg.com
  74. 74. Ask us anything. 77 Questions?
  75. 75. 78 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential 78 Clarity to focus on what matters
  76. 76. 79 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential Would you like a customized demo of AppFolio Property Manager? 79 Poll
  77. 77. 80 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential What’s one thing you can do today after this webinar to put yourself on a path towards better strategy in 2023? Taking Action
  78. 78. 81 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential Listen to Dror Poleg's interview on The Top Floor podcast coming in January 2023. Subscribe now at appfolio.com/the-top-floor
  79. 79. 82 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential Thank you
  80. 80. 83 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential Ask us anything. 83 Extra Time
  81. 81. 84 2022 © AppFolio, Inc. Confidential Thank you

×