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Analyse financière et évaluation des société non cotées

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Evaluation des sociétés non-cotées et effet de levier:

- Maîtriser les différentes méthodes d’évaluation de sociétés
- Comprendre les mécanismes d’effet de levier
- Connaissance des outils utilisés pour l’effet de levier: OCA, ORA, OBSA…

Voir notre formation Evaluation des sociétés non cotées et effet de levier :
http://formation.actions-finance.com/evaluation-des-societes-non-cotees-et-effet-de-levier/

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Veröffentlicht in: Wirtschaft & Finanzen
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Analyse financière et évaluation des société non cotées

  1. 1. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées  L’analyse financière       le Bilan Le Compte de Résultat Les Indicateurs Les Ratios Le tableau de Flux de Trésorerie L’évaluation des entreprises non cotées    Méthode DCF Méthode des Multiples Méthode Patrimoniale 1
  2. 2. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées La structure du bilan Actif Immobilisations nettes Passif Capitaux propres Dettes à Long terme Stocks Créances d’exploitation Liquidités Dettes d’exploitation Crédits de trésorerie 2
  3. 3. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Bilan : Fonds de Roulement et Besoin en Fonds de Roulement Besoin en Fonds de Roulement Fonds de Roulement Passif stable Actif circulant Fonds Propres Actif immobilisé Stocks Immobilisations « non valeurs » Dettes Long Terme FR = Fonds Propres + DLT – Immos – non valeurs = Ressources stables - Emplois stables Créances d’exploitation Passif circulant Dettes d’exploitation BFR = Stocks + Créances - Dettes = Actif circulant - Passif circulant Trésorerie Nette = FR - BFR 3
  4. 4. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Le Compte de Résultat - Charges d’exploitation = Résultat d’exploitation - Charges financières = Résultat financier - Charges exceptionnelles = Résultat exceptionnel - Impôts sur les sociétés = Résultat net Produits d’exploitation Produits financiers Produits exceptionnels Résultat d’exploitation + Résultat financier + Résultat exceptionnel 4
  5. 5. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Les principaux indicateurs de structure : Situation Nette et Fonds Propres Capital Situation nette comptable Situation nette comptable Capitaux Propres Réserves + RàN Résultats non distribués Situation nette comptable Non Valeurs (cap.souscrit non appelé ; Frais d’établisst ; Goodwill) Provisions réglementées et Subventions Situation nette économique Capitaux Propres Autres Fonds Propres (pdts émission de titres participatifs ; avances conditionnées) Fonds Propres 5
  6. 6. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Les principaux indicateurs de Gestion : Valeur Ajoutée ; EBE (EBITDA) ; CAF Production vendue + Ventes de marchandises Prod. vendue + Prod. Stockée + Prod. immobilisée Prod. de l’exercice + Marge commerciale - Achats mat. Premières - variat. Stocks (MP et appros) - Autres charges ext Chiffre d’Affaires Production de l’exercice Valeur Ajoutée Résultat net de l’exercice + Dot. Aux amort. & provis. - Reprises amort. & prov. - Pdts cession élts Actif - Subv. Investisst virées au CdR Vtes de marchandises - Achats - Variation stocks marc. Valeur Ajoutée + Subv. exploitation - Impôts et taxes - Charges de personnel Marge commerciale EBE (EBITDA) CAF Capacité (d’Autofinancement) 6
  7. 7. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Quelques ratios significatifs Rentabilité financière >> ROE (Return On Equity) => Résultat Net / Capitaux propres Rentabilité économique => Résultat courant avant impôt / (Immobilisations + BFR) Marge d’exploitation => EBE / Chiffre d’Affaires Levier => Total Dettes / EBE Productivité => Charges de personnel / Chiffre d’Affaires ou => Chiffre d’Affaires / Nb de salariés Création de valeur (pérennité) => Situation nette / Capital social Liquidité immédiate => Trésorerie nette / Dettes court terme Capacité de remboursement => Dettes à long et moyen terme / CAF 7
  8. 8. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Les flux de trésorerie Résultat net + Dotation aux amortissements et provisions - Variation du BFR Flux de trésorerie d’exploitation - Acquisitions d’immobilisations + Cessions d’immobilisations Flux de trésorerie d’investissement +/- Variation des emprunts +/- Variation des Fonds propres - Dividendes versés Flux de trésorerie liée aux financements 8
  9. 9. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Evaluation des sociétés : les différentes méthodes Indiquée pour mémoire Applicables aux sociétés non cotées Approche dynamique DCF Discounted free Cash Flow Valeur actuelle des flux de trésorerie disponibles Approche comparative Les Multiples Valeur Entreprise / CA VE / EBE VE / Résultat exploit. Application de ces ratios pour comparer les performances de sociétés du même secteur Approche patrimoniale Approche boursière Price to book Situation Nette ou Actif net réévalué Capitalisation boursière / Capitaux propres 9
  10. 10. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Avantage de la méthode DCF Limites de la méthode DCF Du fait de la projection modélisée des Free Cash Flows toutes les hypothèses de fonctionnement de l‘entreprise sur le long terme sont prises en compte : Croissance Rentabilité Investissement Exactitude et pertinence des projections sur l’horizon explicite. « Challenger » au maximum les hypothèses retenues pour bâtir le business plan : Sur quelle durée maximale l’entreprise peut-elle continuer sa croissance sur les bases actuelles ? Les contraintes économiques exogènes ont-elle été correctement dosées ? Le poids de la concurrence a-t-il été correctement évalué ? Avantage de la méthode des Multiples Limites de la méthode des Multiples A votre avis, quels sont les avantages de cette méthode ? Difficulté d’obtenir un échantillon de sociétés exactement comparables. Société cotée : possibilité de trouver des éléments issus de rapports sectoriels Sociétés non cotées : exercice difficile surtout si le marché est atone, sans cession Solution : engager une veille par secteur avec saisie systématique des bilans de quelques sociétés significatives Avantage de la méthode Patrimoniale Limites de la méthode Patrimoniale Très simple à mettre en œuvre Prend en compte l’ensemble des actifs et passifs identifiés Particulièrement recommandée pour l’estimation de grands groupes à forte intensité capitalistique : Immobilier ; Métallurgie ; Sociétés industrielles Les Actifs incorporels sont très difficiles à évaluer Risque de dérive dans l’estimation de la société Se pose par conséquent la problématique du Goodwill (ou Survaleur) 10
  11. 11. Analyse financière et évaluation des sociétés non cotées Pour suivre cette formation ou être mis en contact avec le formateur pour plus de précisions, contactez-nous : contact@actions-finance.com 01 47 20 37 30 11

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