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Chapter	
  9:	
  	
  
Project	
  Risk	
  Management	
  
Stevbros	
  Training	
  &	
  Consultancy	
  
www.stevbros.edu.vn	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   1	
  
PMI,	
  PMP	
  and	
  PMBOK	
  are	
  registered	
  marks	
  of	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  
Overview	
  
	
  	
   Ini%a%ng	
  
process	
  
group	
  
Planning	
  process	
  group	
   Execu%ng	
  
process	
  
group	
  
Monitoring	
  &	
  
controlling	
  
process	
  
group	
  
Closing	
  
process	
  
group	
  
Project	
  risk	
  
management	
  
	
  	
   •  Plan	
  Risk	
  
Management	
  
•  IdenJfy	
  Risks	
  
•  Perform	
  QualitaJve	
  
Risk	
  Analysis	
  
•  Perform	
  QuanJtaJve	
  
Risk	
  Analysis	
  
•  Plan	
  Risk	
  Responses	
  
	
  	
   •  Control	
  
Risks	
  
	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   2	
  
What	
  is	
  Risk?	
  
•  Risk	
  is	
  an	
  uncertain	
  event	
  or	
  condiJon	
  that,	
  if	
  it	
  
occurs,	
  has	
  a	
  posiJve	
  or	
  negaJve	
  effect	
  on	
  a	
  
project’s	
  objecJves	
  
•  Example	
  of	
  posiJve	
  events	
  
–  You	
  ordered	
  new	
  soVware	
  which	
  is	
  cheaper	
  than	
  your	
  
old	
  soVware	
  because	
  of	
  budget	
  constraints.	
  However,	
  
the	
  new	
  soVware	
  turns	
  out	
  to	
  be	
  more	
  efficient.	
  
•  Example	
  of	
  negaJve	
  events	
  
–  The	
  government	
  mandates	
  a	
  compulsory	
  holiday	
  due	
  
to	
  an	
  outbreak	
  of	
  swine	
  flu.	
  The	
  project	
  gets	
  delayed	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   STEVBROS	
  -­‐	
  Global	
  PMI	
  R.E.P	
   3	
  
Concepts	
  
•  Risk	
  appe9te,	
  which	
  is	
  the	
  degree	
  of	
  uncertainty	
  an	
  
enJty	
  is	
  willing	
  to	
  take	
  on,	
  in	
  anJcipaJon	
  of	
  a	
  reward.	
  
•  Risk	
  averse,	
  one	
  who	
  does	
  not	
  take	
  risks.	
  
•  	
  Risk	
  tolerance,	
  which	
  is	
  the	
  degree,	
  amount,	
  or	
  
volume	
  of	
  risk	
  that	
  an	
  organizaJon	
  or	
  individual	
  will	
  
withstand.	
  	
  
•  Risk	
  threshold,	
  which	
  refers	
  to	
  measures	
  along	
  the	
  
level	
  of	
  uncertainty	
  or	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  impact	
  at	
  which	
  a	
  
stakeholder	
  may	
  have	
  a	
  specific	
  interest.	
  Below	
  that	
  
risk	
  threshold,	
  the	
  organizaJon	
  will	
  accept	
  the	
  risk.	
  
Above	
  that	
  risk	
  threshold,	
  the	
  organizaJon	
  will	
  not	
  
tolerate	
  the	
  risk.	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   STEVBROS	
  -­‐	
  Global	
  PMI	
  R.E.P	
   4	
  
Risk	
  categorizaJon	
  
	
  examples	
  
•  Example	
  1:	
  	
  
–  External:	
  regulatory,	
  governmental,	
  subcontractors,	
  suppliers,	
  and	
  
environmental	
  	
  
–  Internal:	
  funding,	
  resource,	
  and	
  prioriJzaJon	
  
–  Technical:	
  requirements,	
  technology,	
  and	
  quality	
  
–  Project	
  Management:	
  esJmaJng,	
  planning,	
  schedule,	
  and	
  communicaJon	
  
•  Example	
  2:	
  
–  Schedule	
  risk:?	
  
–  Cost	
  Risk?	
  
–  Quality	
  Risk?	
  
–  Scope	
  Risk:	
  Looks	
  like	
  you	
  have	
  not	
  understood	
  the	
  work	
  properly	
  and	
  you	
  
might	
  have	
  to	
  redo	
  the	
  whole	
  thing!	
  	
  
–  Resource	
  Risk:	
  CEO	
  has	
  asked	
  the	
  technical	
  architect	
  to	
  work	
  on	
  another	
  
project.	
  In	
  such	
  cases,	
  who	
  would	
  make	
  design	
  decisions	
  on	
  the	
  projects?	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   STEVBROS	
  -­‐	
  Global	
  PMI	
  R.E.P	
   5	
  
Plan	
  risk	
  	
  
management	
  
•  The	
   process	
   of	
   defining	
   how	
   to	
   conduct	
   risk	
   management	
  
acJviJes	
   for	
   a	
   project.	
   The	
   key	
   benefit	
   of	
   this	
   process	
   is	
   it	
  
ensures	
   that	
   the	
   degree,	
   type,	
   and	
   visibility	
   of	
   risk	
  
management	
  are	
  commensurate	
  with	
  both	
  the	
  risks	
  and	
  the	
  
importance	
  of	
  the	
  project	
  to	
  the	
  organizaJon.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   6	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Body	
  of	
  Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  Guide)	
  ©2013	
  Project	
  Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  Figure	
  11-­‐2	
  Page	
  313.	
  
Inputs	
  
1.  Project	
  Management	
  Plan	
  	
  
–  all	
   approved	
   subsidiary	
   management	
   plans	
   and	
   baselines	
   should	
   be	
  
taken	
  into	
  consideraJon	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  make	
  the	
  risk	
  management	
  plan	
  
consistent	
  with	
  them	
  
2.  Project	
  Charter	
  	
  
–  can	
  provide	
  various	
  inputs	
  such	
  as	
  high-­‐level	
  risks,	
  high-­‐level	
  project	
  
descripJons,	
  and	
  high-­‐level	
  requirements.	
  	
  
3.  Stakeholder	
  Register	
  	
  
4.  Enterprise	
  Environmental	
  Factors	
  	
  
–  contain	
   risk	
   aetudes,	
   thresholds,	
   and	
   tolerances	
   that	
   describe	
   the	
  
degree	
  of	
  risk	
  that	
  an	
  organizaJon	
  will	
  withstand.	
  	
  
5.  OrganizaJonal	
  Process	
  Assets	
  	
  
–  contain	
   risk	
   categories,	
   common	
   definiJons	
   of	
   concepts	
   and	
   terms,	
  
risk	
  statement	
  formats,	
  standard	
  templates,	
  roles	
  and	
  responsibiliJes,	
  
authority	
  levels	
  for	
  decision	
  making,	
  and	
  lessons	
  learned.	
  	
  
	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   7	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques	
  
1.  AnalyJcal	
  Techniques	
  
– for	
   example,	
   a	
   stakeholder	
   risk	
   profile	
   analysis	
  
may	
   be	
   performed	
   to	
   grade	
   and	
   qualify	
   the	
  
project	
   stakeholder	
   risk	
   appeJte	
   and	
   tolerance.	
  
Other	
  techniques,	
  such	
  as	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  strategic	
  risk	
  
scoring	
   sheets,	
   are	
   used	
   to	
   provide	
   a	
   high-­‐level	
  
assessment	
   of	
   the	
   risk	
   exposure	
   of	
   the	
   project	
  
based	
  on	
  the	
  overall	
  project	
  context.	
  	
  
2.  Expert	
  Judgment	
  
3.  MeeJngs	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   8	
  
Outputs	
  
1.  Risk	
  Management	
  Plan	
  	
  
–  Methodology:	
   approaches,	
   tools,	
   and	
   data	
   sources	
   that	
   will	
   be	
  
used	
  to	
  perform	
  risk	
  management	
  on	
  the	
  project.	
  	
  
–  Roles	
  and	
  responsibiliJes	
  
–  BudgeJng	
  
–  Timing	
  
–  Risk	
  categories	
  
–  DefiniJons	
  of	
  risk	
  probability	
  and	
  impact	
  
–  Probability	
  and	
  impact	
  matrix	
  (details	
  at	
  next	
  slide).	
  	
  
–  Revised	
  stakeholders’	
  tolerances.	
  
–  ReporJng	
  formats	
  
–  Tracking:	
  documents	
  how	
  risk	
  acJviJes	
  will	
  be	
  recorded	
  for	
  the	
  
benefit	
   of	
   the	
   current	
   project	
   and	
   how	
   risk	
   management	
  
processes	
  will	
  be	
  audited.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   9	
  
Probability	
  &	
  
impact	
  matrix	
  
•  Risk	
  Probability:	
  High:	
  50	
  percent	
  or	
  higher	
  (likely);	
  Medium:	
  Between	
  10	
  
and	
  50	
  percent	
  (unlikely);	
  Low:	
  10	
  percent	
  or	
  lower	
  (very	
  unlikely).	
  
•  Risk	
  Impact:	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   10	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  
Project	
  
Management	
  
Body	
  of	
  
Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  
Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  
Guide)	
  ©2013	
  
Project	
  
Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  	
  
All	
  Rights	
  
Reserved.	
  	
  Table	
  
11-­‐1	
  Page	
  318.	
  
IdenJfy	
  risks	
  
•  The	
   process	
   of	
   determining	
   which	
   risks	
   may	
   affect	
   the	
   project	
   and	
  
documenJng	
  their	
  characterisJcs.	
  The	
  key	
  benefit	
  of	
  this	
  process	
  is	
  the	
  
documentaJon	
  of	
  exisJng	
  risks	
  and	
  the	
  knowledge	
  and	
  ability	
  it	
  provides	
  
to	
  the	
  project	
  team	
  to	
  anJcipate	
  events.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   11	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Body	
  of	
  Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  Guide)	
  ©2013	
  Project	
  Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  Figure	
  11-­‐5	
  Page	
  319.	
  
Inputs(1/3)	
  
1.  Risk	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  are	
  the	
  assignments	
  of	
  roles	
  and	
  responsibiliJes,	
  provision	
  for	
  risk	
  
management	
  acJviJes	
  in	
  the	
  budget	
  and	
  schedule,	
  and	
  categories	
  
of	
   risk,	
   which	
   are	
   someJmes	
   expressed	
   as	
   a	
   risk	
   breakdown	
  
structure	
  	
  
2.  Cost	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  provides	
  processes	
  and	
  controls	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  used	
  to	
  help	
  idenJfy	
  
risks	
  across	
  the	
  project.	
  
3.  Schedule	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  provides	
   insight	
   to	
   project	
   Jme/schedule	
   objecJves	
   and	
  
expectaJons	
   which	
   may	
   be	
   impacted	
   by	
   risks	
   (known	
   and	
  
unknown).	
  
4.  Quality	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  provides	
   a	
   baseline	
   of	
   quality	
   measures	
   and	
   metrics	
   for	
   use	
   in	
  
idenJfying	
  risks.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   12	
  
Inputs(2/3)	
  
5.  Human	
  Resource	
  Management	
  Plan	
  	
  
–  provides	
   guidance	
   on	
   how	
   project	
   human	
   resources	
   should	
   be	
  
defined,	
  staffed,	
  managed,	
  and	
  eventually	
  released.	
  
6.  	
  Scope	
  Baseline	
  	
  
–  uncertainty	
   in	
   project	
   assumpJons	
   should	
   be	
   evaluated	
   as	
  
potenJal	
  causes	
  of	
  project	
  risk.	
  
–  the	
   WBS	
   is	
   a	
   criJcal	
   input	
   to	
   idenJfying	
   risks	
   as	
   it	
   facilitates	
   an	
  
understanding	
  of	
  the	
  potenJal	
  risks	
  at	
  both	
  the	
  micro	
  and	
  macro	
  
levels.	
   Risks	
   can	
   be	
   idenJfied	
   and	
   subsequently	
   tracked	
   at	
  
summary,	
  control	
  account,	
  and/or	
  work	
  package	
  levels.	
  	
  
7.  AcJvity	
  Cost	
  EsJmates	
  	
  
–  acJvity	
  cost	
  esJmate	
  reviews	
  are	
  useful	
  in	
  idenJfying	
  risks	
  	
  
8.  AcJvity	
  DuraJon	
  EsJmates	
  	
  
–  acJvity	
  duraJon	
  esJmate	
  reviews	
  are	
  useful	
  in	
  idenJfying	
  risks	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   13	
  
Inputs(3/3)	
  
9.  Stakeholder	
  Register	
  	
  
–  ensure	
   that	
   key	
   stakeholders,	
   especially	
   the	
   stakeholder,	
   sponsor,	
   and	
  
customer	
   are	
   interviewed	
   or	
   otherwise	
   parJcipate	
   during	
   the	
   IdenJfy	
   Risks	
  
process	
  
10.  Project	
  Documents	
  	
  
–  include	
   project	
   charter,	
   project	
   schedule,	
   schedule	
   network	
   diagrams,	
   issue	
  
log,	
   quality	
   checklist,	
   and	
   other	
   informaJon	
   proven	
   to	
   be	
   valuable	
   in	
  
idenJfying	
  risks.	
  	
  
11.  Procurement	
  Documents	
  	
  
–  the	
  complexity	
  and	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  detail	
  of	
  the	
  procurement	
  documents	
  should	
  be	
  
consistent	
  with	
  the	
  value	
  of,	
  and	
  risks	
  associated	
  with,	
  planned	
  procurement.	
  
12.  Enterprise	
  Environmental	
  Factors	
  
–  include	
   published	
   informaJon,	
   including	
   commercial	
   databases,	
   academic	
  
studies,	
   published	
   checklists,	
   benchmarking,	
   industry	
   studies,	
   and	
   risk	
  
aetudes.	
  
13.  OrganizaJonal	
  Process	
  Assets	
  	
  
–  include	
  project	
  files,	
  including	
  actual	
  data,	
  organizaJonal	
  and	
  project	
  process	
  
controls,	
  risk	
  statement	
  formats	
  or	
  templates,	
  and	
  lessons	
  learned.	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   14	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques(1/2)	
  
1.  DocumentaJon	
  Reviews	
  	
  
–  The	
  quality	
  of	
  the	
  plans,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  consistency	
  between	
  those	
  plans	
  and	
  
the	
  project	
  requirements	
  and	
  assumpJons,	
  may	
  be	
  indicators	
  of	
  risk	
  in	
  the	
  
project.	
  	
  
2.  InformaJon	
  Gathering	
  Techniques	
  	
  
–  Include	
  brainstorming,	
  Delphi	
  technique,	
  Interviewing,	
  Root	
  cause	
  analysis.	
  	
  
3.  Checklist	
  Analysis	
  	
  
–  are	
   developed	
   based	
   on	
   historical	
   informaJon	
   and	
   knowledge	
   that	
   has	
  
been	
  accumulated	
  from	
  previous	
  similar	
  projects	
  and	
  from	
  other	
  sources	
  
of	
   informaJon.	
   The	
   lowest	
   level	
   of	
   the	
   RBS	
   can	
   also	
   be	
   used	
   as	
   a	
   risk	
  
checklist.	
  
4.  AssumpJons	
  Analysis	
  
–  Every	
  project	
  and	
  its	
  plan	
  is	
  conceived	
  and	
  developed	
  based	
  on	
  a	
  set	
  of	
  
hypotheses,	
  scenarios,	
  or	
  assumpJons.	
  AssumpJons	
  analysis	
  explores	
  the	
  
validity	
  of	
  assumpJons	
  as	
  they	
  apply	
  to	
  the	
  project.	
  It	
  idenJfies	
  risks	
  to	
  the	
  
project	
   from	
   inaccuracy,	
   instability,	
   inconsistency,	
   or	
   incompleteness	
   of	
  
assumpJons.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   15	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques(2/2)	
  
5.  Diagramming	
  Techniques	
  
–  Include	
  Cause	
  and	
  effect	
  diagrams,	
  System	
  or	
  process	
  
flow	
  charts,	
  Influence	
  diagrams.	
  (details	
  at	
  next	
  slides)	
  
6.  SWOT	
  Analysis	
  	
  
–  examines	
   the	
   project	
   from	
   each	
   of	
   the	
   strengths,	
  
weaknesses,	
  opportuniJes,	
  and	
  threats	
  (SWOT)	
  	
  
perspecJves	
  to	
  increase	
  the	
  breadth	
  of	
  idenJfied	
  risks	
  
by	
  including	
  internally	
  generated	
  risks	
  
7.  Expert	
  Judgment	
  	
  
–  Risks	
   may	
   be	
   idenJfied	
   directly	
   by	
   experts	
   with	
  
relevant	
  experience	
  with	
  similar	
  projects	
  or	
  business	
  
areas.	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   16	
  
Root-­‐cause	
  
analysis	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   17	
  
Influence	
  
diagram	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   18	
  
Outputs	
  
1.  Risk	
  Register	
  
– List	
  of	
  idenJfied	
  risks:	
  	
  	
  
•  A	
   structure	
   for	
   describing	
   risks	
   using	
   risk	
   statements	
  
may	
  be	
  applied,	
  for	
  example,	
  EVENT	
  may	
  occur	
  causing	
  
IMPACT,	
  or	
  If	
  CAUSE	
  exists,	
  EVENT	
  may	
  occur	
  leading	
  to	
  
EFFECT.	
  	
  
•  In	
  addiJon	
  to	
  the	
  list	
  of	
  idenJfied	
  risks,	
  the	
  root	
  causes	
  
of	
  those	
  risks	
  may	
  become	
  more	
  evident.	
  
– List	
  of	
  potenJal	
  responses	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   19	
  
Perform	
  qualitaJve	
  
risk	
  analysis	
  
•  The	
  process	
  of	
  prioriJzing	
  risks	
  for	
  further	
  analysis	
  or	
  acJon	
  by	
  assessing	
  
and	
  combining	
  their	
  probability	
  of	
  occurrence	
  and	
  impact.	
  The	
  key	
  benefit	
  
of	
  this	
  process	
  is	
  that	
  it	
  enables	
  project	
  managers	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  
uncertainty	
  and	
  to	
  focus	
  on	
  high-­‐priority	
  risks.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   20	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Body	
  of	
  Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  Guide)	
  ©2013	
  Project	
  Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  Figure	
  11-­‐8	
  Page	
  328.	
  
Inputs	
  
1.  Risk	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  Analysis	
   process	
   include	
   roles	
   and	
   responsibiliJes	
   for	
   conducJng	
   risk	
  
management,	
   budgets,	
   schedule	
   acJviJes	
   for	
   risk	
   management,	
   risk	
  
categories,	
   definiJons	
   of	
   probability	
   and	
   impact,	
   the	
   probability	
   and	
  
impact	
  matrix,	
  and	
  revised	
  stakeholders’	
  risk	
  tolerances	
  
2.  Scope	
  Baseline	
  
–  E.g.	
   Projects	
   of	
   a	
   common	
   or	
   recurrent	
   type	
   tend	
   to	
   have	
   more	
   well-­‐
understood	
   risks.	
   Projects	
   using	
   state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art	
   or	
   first-­‐of-­‐its-­‐kind	
  
technology,	
  and	
  highly	
  complex	
  projects,	
  tend	
  to	
  have	
  more	
  uncertainty.	
  
3.  Risk	
  Register	
  	
  
–  contains	
  the	
  informaJon	
  that	
  will	
  be	
  used	
  to	
  assess	
  and	
  prioriJze	
  risks.	
  	
  
4.  Enterprise	
  Environmental	
  Factors	
  	
  
–  include	
   industry	
   studies	
   of	
   similar	
   projects	
   by	
   risk	
   specialists,	
   and	
   risk	
  
databases	
  that	
  may	
  be	
  available	
  from	
  industry	
  or	
  proprietary	
  sources.	
  	
  
5.  OrganizaJonal	
  Process	
  Assets	
  	
  
–  include	
  informaJon	
  on	
  prior,	
  similar	
  completed	
  projects	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   21	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques	
  
1.  Risk	
  Probability	
  and	
  Impact	
  Assessment	
  (next	
  slides)	
  
2.  Probability	
  and	
  Impact	
  Matrix	
  (next	
  slides)	
  
3.  Risk	
  Data	
  Quality	
  Assessment	
  	
  
–  assessment	
  is	
  a	
  technique	
  to	
  evaluate	
  the	
  degree	
  to	
  which	
  the	
  data	
  about	
  risks	
  is	
  
useful	
  for	
  risk	
  management.	
  It	
  involves	
  examining	
  the	
  degree	
  to	
  which	
  the	
  risk	
  is	
  
understood	
  and	
  the	
  accuracy,	
  quality,	
  reliability,	
  and	
  integrity	
  of	
  the	
  data	
  about	
  
the	
  risk.	
  
4.  Risk	
  CategorizaJon	
  	
  
–  risks	
  to	
  the	
  project	
  can	
  be	
  categorized	
  by	
  sources	
  of	
  risk	
  (e.g.,	
  using	
  the	
  RBS),	
  the	
  
area	
  of	
  the	
  project	
  affected	
  (e.g.,	
  using	
  the	
  WBS),	
  or	
  other	
  useful	
  categories	
  (e.g.,	
  
project	
  phase)	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  areas	
  of	
  the	
  project	
  most	
  exposed	
  to	
  the	
  effects	
  
of	
  uncertainty.	
  Risks	
  can	
  also	
  be	
  categorized	
  by	
  common	
  root	
  causes.	
  	
  
5.  Risk	
  Urgency	
  Assessment	
  	
  
–  risks	
  requiring	
  near-­‐term	
  responses	
  may	
  be	
  considered	
  more	
  urgent	
  to	
  address.	
  
Indicators	
  of	
  priority	
  may	
  include	
  probability	
  of	
  detecJng	
  the	
  risk,	
  Jme	
  to	
  affect	
  a	
  
risk	
  response,	
  symptoms	
  and	
  warning	
  signs,	
  and	
  the	
  risk	
  raJng.	
  
6.  Expert	
  Judgment	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   22	
  
Probability	
  &	
  
impact	
  matrix	
  
•  Risk	
  Probability:	
  High:	
  50	
  percent	
  or	
  higher	
  (likely);	
  Medium:	
  Between	
  10	
  
and	
  50	
  percent	
  (unlikely);	
  Low:	
  10	
  percent	
  or	
  lower	
  (very	
  unlikely).	
  
•  Risk	
  Impact:	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   23	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  
Project	
  
Management	
  
Body	
  of	
  
Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  
Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  
Guide)	
  ©2013	
  
Project	
  
Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  
Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  
Table	
  11-­‐1	
  Page	
  
318.	
  
Probability	
  &	
  
impact	
  matrix	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   24	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Body	
  of	
  Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  Guide)	
  ©2013	
  Project	
  Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  Figure	
  11-­‐10	
  Page	
  331.	
  
Outputs	
  
1.  Project	
  Documents	
  Updates	
  	
  
–  Risk	
  register	
  updates.	
  	
  
•  As	
   new	
   informaJon	
   becomes	
   available	
   through	
   the	
  
qualitaJve	
  risk	
  assessment,	
  the	
  risk	
  register	
  is	
  updated.	
  	
  
•  Updates	
   to	
   the	
   risk	
   register	
   may	
   include	
   assessments	
   of	
  
probability	
  and	
  impacts	
  for	
  each	
  risk,	
  risk	
  ranking	
  or	
  scores,	
  
risk	
  urgency	
  informaJon	
  or	
  risk	
  categorizaJon,	
  and	
  a	
  watch	
  
list	
  for	
  low	
  probability	
  risks	
  or	
  risks	
  requiring	
  further	
  analysis.	
  	
  
–  AssumpJons	
  log	
  updates.	
  	
  
•  As	
   new	
   informaJon	
   becomes	
   available	
   through	
   the	
  
qualitaJve	
  risk	
  assessment,	
  assumpJons	
  could	
  change.	
  	
  
•  The	
  assumpJons	
  log	
  needs	
  to	
  be	
  revisited	
  to	
  accommodate	
  
this	
  new	
  informaJon.	
  AssumpJons	
  may	
  be	
  incorporated	
  into	
  
the	
  project	
  scope	
  statement	
  or	
  in	
  a	
  separate	
  assumpJons	
  log.	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   25	
  
Perform	
  quanJtaJve	
  
risk	
  analysis	
  
•  The	
   process	
   of	
   numerically	
   analyzing	
   the	
   effect	
   of	
   idenJfied	
   risks	
   on	
  
overall	
   project	
   objecJves.	
   The	
   key	
   benefit	
   of	
   this	
   process	
   is	
   that	
   it	
  
produces	
  quanJtaJve	
  risk	
  informaJon	
  to	
  support	
  decision	
  making	
  in	
  order	
  
to	
  reduce	
  project	
  uncertainty.	
  This	
  process	
  isn’t	
  applied	
  for	
  projects	
  with	
  
low	
  complexity,	
  low	
  dollar	
  value.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   26	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Body	
  of	
  Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  Guide)	
  ©2013	
  Project	
  Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  Figure	
  11-­‐11	
  Page	
  334.	
  
Inputs	
  
1.  Risk	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  provides	
   guidelines,	
   methods,	
   and	
   tools	
   to	
   be	
   used	
   in	
   quanJtaJve	
   risk	
  
analysis.	
  	
  
2.  Cost	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  provides	
  guidelines	
  on	
  establishing	
  and	
  managing	
  risk	
  reserves.	
  	
  
3.  Schedule	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  plan	
  provides	
  guidelines	
  on	
  establishing	
  and	
  managing	
  risk	
  reserves.	
  	
  
4.  Risk	
  Register	
  	
  
–  register	
  is	
  used	
  as	
  a	
  reference	
  point	
  for	
  performing	
  quanJtaJve	
  risk	
  	
  
analysis.	
  	
  
5.  Enterprise	
  Environmental	
  Factors	
  	
  
–  include	
   industry	
   studies	
   of	
   similar	
   projects	
   by	
   risk	
   specialists,	
   and	
   risk	
  
databases	
  that	
  may	
  be	
  available	
  from	
  industry	
  or	
  proprietary	
  sources.	
  	
  
6.  OrganizaJonal	
  Process	
  Assets	
  	
  
–  include	
  informaJon	
  from	
  prior,	
  similar	
  completed	
  projects.	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   27	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques	
  
1.  Data	
  Gathering	
  and	
  RepresentaJon	
  Techniques	
  	
  
–  Such	
  as	
  interviewing,	
  probability	
  distribuJons	
  (PERT)	
  
2.  QuanJtaJve	
  Risk	
  Analysis	
  and	
  Modeling	
  Techniques	
  	
  
–  Such	
   as	
   sensiJvity	
   analysis,	
   expected	
   monetary	
   value	
  
analysis,	
  modeling	
  and	
  simulaJon	
  (next	
  slides)	
  
3.  Expert	
  Judgment	
  	
  
–  Expert	
  judgment	
  also	
  comes	
  into	
  play	
  in	
  the	
  interpretaJon	
  
of	
   the	
   data.	
   Experts	
   should	
   be	
   able	
   to	
   idenJfy	
   the	
  
weaknesses	
  of	
  the	
  tools	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  their	
  strengths.	
  Experts	
  
may	
   determine	
   when	
   a	
   specific	
   tool	
   may	
   or	
   may	
   not	
   be	
  
more	
   appropriate	
   given	
   the	
   organizaJon’s	
   capabiliJes	
   and	
  
culture.	
  	
  
	
  Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   28	
  
Decision	
  Tree	
  and	
  EMV	
  
•  EVM used with Decision Tree to choose between
many alternative which take into account the future
events
•  Example:
[ ]∑ ×= (Impact)ty)(ProbabiliEVM
Example	
  Source:	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   29	
  
SensiJvity	
  Analysis	
  
•  To determine which risks have the most potential impact to the project
•  Changing one or more elements/variables and set other elements to its
baseline then see the impact.
•  One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   30	
  
Modeling	
  and	
  
	
  simulaJon	
  
A	
   Guide	
   to	
  
the	
   Project	
  
Management	
  
B o d y 	
   o f	
  
Knowledge,	
  	
  
FiEh	
   Edi9on	
  
( P M B O K ®	
  
G u i d e )	
  
© 2 0 1 3	
  
P r o j e c t	
  
Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
   Inc.	
  	
  
A l l	
   R i g h t s	
  
Reserved.	
  	
  
Figure	
   11-­‐17	
  
Page	
  340.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   31	
  
Outputs	
  
1.  Project	
  Documents	
  Updates	
  	
  
–  ProbabilisJc	
   analysis	
   of	
   the	
   project:	
   EsJmates	
   are	
  
made	
  of	
  potenJal	
  project	
  schedule	
  and	
  cost	
  outcomes	
  
lisJng	
   the	
   possible	
   compleJon	
   dates	
   and	
   costs	
   with	
  
their	
  associated	
  confidence	
  levels.	
  
–  Probability	
  of	
  achieving	
  cost	
  and	
  Jme	
  objecJves:	
  For	
  
instance,	
  in	
  Figure	
  11-­‐17,	
  the	
  likelihood	
  of	
  achieving	
  
the	
  cost	
  esJmate	
  of	
  US$41	
  million	
  is	
  about	
  12%	
  
–  PrioriJzed	
  list	
  of	
  quanJfied	
  risks	
  
–  Trends	
   in	
   quanJtaJve	
   risk	
   analysis	
   results:	
   As	
   the	
  
analysis	
   is	
   repeated,	
   a	
   trend	
   may	
   become	
   apparent	
  
that	
  leads	
  to	
  conclusions	
  affecJng	
  risk	
  responses	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   32	
  
Plan	
  risk	
  response	
  
•  The	
   process	
   of	
   developing	
   opJons	
   and	
   acJons	
   to	
   enhance	
  
opportuniJes	
  and	
  to	
  reduce	
  threats	
  to	
  project	
  objecJves.	
  The	
  
key	
   benefit	
   of	
   this	
   process	
   is	
   that	
   it	
   addresses	
   the	
   risks	
   by	
  
their	
   priority,	
   inserJng	
   resources	
   and	
   acJviJes	
   into	
   the	
  
budget,	
  schedule	
  and	
  project	
  management	
  plan	
  as	
  needed.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   33	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Body	
  of	
  Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  Guide)	
  ©2013	
  Project	
  Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  Figure	
  11-­‐18	
  Page	
  342.	
  
Inputs	
  
1.  Risk	
  Management	
  Plan	
  
–  include	
  roles	
  and	
  responsibiliJes,	
  risk	
  analysis	
  definiJons,	
  
Jming	
  for	
  reviews	
  (and	
  for	
  eliminaJng	
  risks	
  from	
  review),	
  
and	
  risk	
  thresholds	
  for	
  low,	
  moderate,	
  and	
  high	
  risks.	
  Risk	
  
thresholds	
   help	
   idenJfy	
   those	
   risks	
   for	
   which	
   specific	
  
responses	
  are	
  needed.	
  
2.  Risk	
  Register	
  
–  refers	
   to	
   idenJfied	
   risks,	
   root	
   causes	
   of	
   risks,	
   lists	
   of	
  
potenJal	
  responses,	
  risk	
  owners,	
  symptoms	
  and	
  warning	
  
signs,	
   the	
   relaJve	
   raJng	
   or	
   priority	
   list	
   of	
   project	
   risks,	
  
risks	
   requiring	
   responses	
   in	
   the	
   near	
   term,	
   risks	
   for	
  
addiJonal	
   analysis	
   and	
   response,	
   trends	
   in	
   qualitaJve	
  
analysis	
  results,	
  and	
  a	
  watch	
  list,	
  which	
  is	
  a	
  list	
  of	
  low-­‐	
  
priority	
  risks	
  within	
  the	
  risk	
  register.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   34	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques	
  (1/3)	
  
1.	
  Strategies	
  for	
  NegaJve	
  Risk	
  or	
  Threats:	
  
–  Avoid:	
   Eliminate	
   the	
   threat	
   enJrely,	
   isolate	
   project	
  
objecJves	
  from	
  the	
  risk’s	
  impact.	
  
–  Transfer	
  (Deflect,	
  Allocate):	
  shiV	
  some	
  or	
  all	
  the	
  negaJve	
  
impact	
  of	
  a	
  threat	
  to	
  a	
  third	
  party	
  
–  MiJgate:	
   implies	
   a	
   reducJon	
   in	
   the	
   probability	
   and/or	
  
impact	
   of	
   an	
   adverse	
   risk	
   event	
   to	
   be	
   within	
   acceptable	
  
threshold	
  limits	
  
–  Accept:	
   deal	
   with	
   the	
   risks,	
   project	
   management	
   plan	
   is	
  
not	
  changed	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   35	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques	
  (2/3)	
  
2.	
  Strategies	
  for	
  PosiJve	
  Risks	
  or	
  OpportuniJes:	
  
– Exploit:	
  seek	
  to	
  ensure	
  the	
  opportuniJes	
  definitely	
  
happen	
  
– Share:	
  allocate	
  some	
  or	
  all	
  of	
  the	
  ownership	
  of	
  the	
  
opportunity	
   to	
   a	
   third	
   party	
   who	
   is	
   best	
   able	
   to	
  
capture	
  the	
  opportunity	
  for	
  the	
  project	
  benefit.	
  
– Enhance:	
   increase	
   the	
   probability	
   and/or	
   the	
  
posiJve	
  impacts	
  of	
  an	
  opportunity.	
  
– Accept:	
  not	
  acJvely	
  pursuing	
  an	
  opportunity	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   36	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques(3/3)	
  
3.  ConJngent	
  Response	
  Strategies	
  
–  contain	
  events	
  that	
  trigger	
  the	
  conJngency	
  response,	
  such	
  
as	
   missing	
   intermediate	
   milestones	
   or	
   gaining	
   higher	
  
priority	
   with	
   a	
   supplier,	
   should	
   be	
   defined	
   and	
   tracked.	
  
Risk	
   responses	
   idenJfied	
   using	
   this	
   technique	
   are	
   oVen	
  
called	
   conJngency	
   plans	
   or	
   fallback	
   plans	
   and	
   include	
  
idenJfied	
  triggering	
  events	
  that	
  set	
  the	
  plans	
  in	
  effect.	
  	
  
4.  Expert	
  Judgment	
  	
  
–  is	
   input	
   from	
   knowledgeable	
   parJes	
   pertaining	
   to	
   the	
  
acJons	
  to	
  be	
  taken	
  on	
  a	
  specific	
  and	
  defined	
  risk.	
  ExperJse	
  
may	
  be	
  provided	
  by	
  any	
  group	
  or	
  person	
  with	
  specialized	
  
educaJon,	
   knowledge,	
   skill,	
   experience,	
   or	
   training	
   in	
  
establishing	
  risk	
  responses.	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   37	
  
Outputs(1/2)	
  
•  Project	
  Management	
  Plan	
  Updates	
  	
  
Include	
   schedule	
   management	
   plan,	
   cost	
  
management	
   plan,	
   quality	
   management	
   plan,	
  
procurement	
   management	
   plan,	
   human	
  
resource	
   management	
   plan,	
   scope	
   baseline,	
  
schedule	
  baseline,	
  cost	
  baseline.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   38	
  
Outputs	
  (2/2)	
  
•  Project	
  Documents	
  Updates	
  	
  
–  Update	
  to	
  risk	
  register	
  
•  Risk	
  owners	
  and	
  assigned	
  responsibiliJes;	
  	
  
•  Agreed-­‐upon	
  response	
  strategies;	
  	
  
•  Specific	
  acJons	
  to	
  implement	
  the	
  chosen	
  response	
  strategy;	
  	
  
•  Trigger	
  condiJons,	
  symptoms,	
  and	
  warning	
  signs	
  of	
  a	
  risk	
  occurrence;	
  	
  
•  Budget	
  and	
  schedule	
  acJviJes	
  required	
  to	
  implement	
  the	
  chosen	
  responses;	
  	
  
•  ConJngency	
  plans	
  and	
  triggers	
  that	
  call	
  for	
  their	
  execuJon;	
  	
  
•  Fallback	
   plans	
   for	
   use	
   as	
   a	
   reacJon	
   to	
   a	
   risk	
   that	
   has	
   occurred	
   and	
   the	
   primary	
  
response	
  proves	
  to	
  be	
  inadequate;	
  	
  
•  Residual	
   risks	
   that	
   are	
   expected	
   to	
   remain	
   aVer	
   planned	
   responses	
   have	
   been	
  
taken,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  those	
  that	
  have	
  been	
  deliberately	
  accepted;	
  	
  
•  Secondary	
  risks	
  that	
  arise	
  as	
  a	
  direct	
  outcome	
  of	
  implemenJng	
  a	
  risk	
  response;	
  and	
  	
  
•  ConJngency	
  reserves	
  that	
  are	
  calculated	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  quanJtaJve	
  risk	
  analysis	
  of	
  
the	
  project	
  and	
  the	
  organizaJon’s	
  risk	
  thresholds.	
  	
  
–  Other	
   updates:	
   assumpJons	
   log	
   updates,	
   technical	
   documentaJon	
  
updates,	
  change	
  requests	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   39	
  
Control	
  risks	
  
•  The	
  process	
  of	
  implemenJng	
  risk	
  response	
  plans,	
  tracking	
  idenJfied	
  risks,	
  
monitoring	
  residual	
  risks,	
  idenJfying	
  new	
  risks,	
  and	
  evaluaJng	
  risk	
  process	
  
effecJveness	
   throughout	
   the	
   project.	
   The	
   key	
   benefit	
   of	
   this	
   process	
   is	
  
that	
  it	
  improves	
  efficiency	
  of	
  the	
  risk	
  approach	
  throughout	
  the	
  project	
  life	
  
cycle	
  to	
  conJnuously	
  opJmize	
  risk	
  responses.	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   40	
  
A	
  Guide	
  to	
  the	
  Project	
  Management	
  Body	
  of	
  Knowledge,	
  FiEh	
  Edi9on	
  (PMBOK®	
  Guide)	
  ©2013	
  Project	
  Management	
  
Ins9tute,	
  Inc.	
  	
  All	
  Rights	
  Reserved.	
  	
  Figure	
  10-­‐20	
  Page	
  349.	
  
Inputs	
  
1.  Project	
  Management	
  Plan	
  	
  
–  includes	
  the	
  risk	
  management	
  plan,	
  provides	
  guidance	
  for	
  risk	
  monitoring	
  
and	
  controlling.	
  	
  
2.  Risk	
  Register	
  	
  
–  has	
  key	
  inputs	
  that	
  include	
  idenJfied	
  risks	
  and	
  risk	
  owners,	
  agreed-­‐upon	
  
risk	
  responses,	
  control	
  acJons	
  for	
  assessing	
  the	
  effecJveness	
  of	
  response	
  
plans,	
   risk	
   responses,	
   specific	
   implementaJon	
   acJons,	
   symptoms	
   and	
  
warning	
  signs	
  of	
  risk,	
  residual	
  and	
  secondary	
  risks,	
  a	
  watch	
  list	
  of	
  low-­‐
priority	
  risks,	
  and	
  the	
  Jme	
  and	
  cost	
  conJngency	
  reserves	
  
3.  Work	
  Performance	
  Data	
  	
  
–  deliverable	
  status,	
  schedule	
  progress,	
  and	
  costs	
  incurred	
  
4.  Work	
  Performance	
  Reports	
  	
  
–  take	
   informaJon	
   from	
   performance	
   measurements	
   and	
   analyze	
   it	
   to	
  
provide	
   project	
   work	
   performance	
   informaJon	
   including	
   variance	
  
analysis,	
  earned	
  value	
  data,	
  and	
  forecasJng	
  data.	
  These	
  data	
  points	
  could	
  
be	
  impacsul	
  in	
  controlling	
  performance	
  related	
  risks.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   41	
  
Tools	
  and	
  
techniques	
  
1.  Risk	
  Reassessment	
  
–  oVen	
   results	
   in	
   idenJficaJon	
   of	
   new	
   risks,	
   reassessment	
   of	
   current	
   risks,	
   and	
   the	
  
closing	
  of	
  risks	
  that	
  are	
  outdated.	
  Risk	
  reassessments	
  should	
  be	
  regularly	
  scheduled	
  
2.  Risk	
  Audits	
  
–  examine	
  and	
  document	
  the	
  effecJveness	
  of	
  risk	
  responses	
  in	
  dealing	
  with	
  idenJfied	
  
risks	
   and	
   their	
   root	
   causes,	
   as	
   well	
   as	
   the	
   effecJveness	
   of	
   the	
   risk	
   management	
  
process.	
  	
  
3.  Variance	
  and	
  Trend	
  Analysis	
  	
  
4.  Technical	
  Performance	
  Measurement	
  	
  
–  compares	
   technical	
   accomplishments	
   during	
   project	
   execuJon	
   to	
   the	
   schedule	
   of	
  
technical	
   achievement.	
   Such	
   technical	
   performance	
   measures	
   may	
   include	
   weight,	
  
transacJon	
  Jmes,	
  number	
  of	
  delivered	
  defects,	
  storage	
  capacity,	
  etc.	
  DeviaJon,	
  such	
  
as	
  demonstraJng	
  more	
  or	
  less	
  funcJonality	
  than	
  planned	
  at	
  a	
  milestone,	
  can	
  help	
  to	
  
forecast	
  the	
  degree	
  of	
  success	
  in	
  achieving	
  the	
  project’s	
  scope.	
  	
  
5.  Reserve	
  Analysis	
  	
  
–  compares	
  the	
  amount	
  of	
  the	
  conJngency	
  reserves	
  remaining	
  to	
  the	
  amount	
  of	
  risk	
  
remaining	
  at	
  any	
  Jme	
  in	
  the	
  project	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  determine	
  if	
  the	
  remaining	
  reserve	
  is	
  
adequate.	
  
6.  MeeJngs	
  	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   42	
  
Outputs	
  
1.  Work	
  Performance	
  InformaJon	
  	
  
2.  Change	
  Requests	
  	
  
–  ImplemenJng	
  conJngency	
  plans	
  or	
  workarounds	
  someJmes	
  results	
  in	
  a	
  
change	
   request.	
   It	
   includes	
   recommended	
   correcJve	
   acJons,	
  
recommended	
  prevenJve	
  acJons	
  
3.  Project	
  Management	
  Plan	
  Updates	
  
4.  Project	
  Documents	
  Updates	
  
–  outcomes	
  of	
  risk	
  reassessments,	
  risk	
  audits,	
  and	
  periodic	
  risk	
  reviews.	
  
5.  Actual	
  outcomes	
  of	
  the	
  project’s	
  risks	
  and	
  of	
  the	
  risk	
  responses	
  
6.  OrganizaJonal	
  Process	
  Assets	
  Updates	
  	
  
–  include	
  templates	
  for	
  the	
  risk	
  management	
  plan,	
  including	
  the	
  probability	
  
and	
   impact	
   matrix	
   and	
   risk	
   register;	
   risk	
   breakdown	
   structure;	
   and	
  
lessons	
  learned	
  from	
  the	
  project	
  risk	
  management	
  acJviJes.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   43	
  
Summary	
  
IdenJfy	
  Risk	
  
• Input:	
  uncertainJes	
  
• Output:	
  risk	
  register	
  
QualitaJve/
QuanJtaJve	
  
Analysis	
  
• Input:	
  risk	
  register	
  
• Output:	
  updated	
  risk	
  register,	
  watch-­‐list	
  
Plan	
  Risk	
  Response	
  
• Input:	
  risk	
  register	
  
• Output:	
  conJngency	
  plan,	
  fallback	
  plan,	
  residual	
  risk,	
  secondary	
  risk	
  
Control	
  Risk	
  
• Input:	
  risk	
  register	
  
• Output:	
  workaround,	
  correcJve	
  acJons,	
  prevenJve	
  acJons	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   44	
  
Summary	
  
•  Watch	
   list,	
   residual	
   risk,	
   secondary	
   risk,	
  
fallback	
   plan,	
   conJngency	
   plan,	
   conJngency	
  
reserve,	
  workarounds.	
  
•  4	
  response	
  strategies	
  for	
  threads.	
  
•  4	
  response	
  strategies	
  for	
  opportunity.	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   45	
  
QuesJons	
  
for	
  review	
  
Copyright@STEVBROS	
   Project	
  Mamagement	
  Fundamentals	
   46	
  
•  You	
  did	
  the	
  good	
  job	
  at	
  this	
  chapter.	
  	
  Please	
  
complete	
  quesJons	
  for	
  review	
  before	
  moving	
  
to	
  next	
  chapter.	
  

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Project Risk Management

  • 1. Chapter  9:     Project  Risk  Management   Stevbros  Training  &  Consultancy   www.stevbros.edu.vn   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   1   PMI,  PMP  and  PMBOK  are  registered  marks  of  the  Project  Management  Ins9tute,  Inc.  
  • 2. Overview       Ini%a%ng   process   group   Planning  process  group   Execu%ng   process   group   Monitoring  &   controlling   process   group   Closing   process   group   Project  risk   management       •  Plan  Risk   Management   •  IdenJfy  Risks   •  Perform  QualitaJve   Risk  Analysis   •  Perform  QuanJtaJve   Risk  Analysis   •  Plan  Risk  Responses       •  Control   Risks       Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   2  
  • 3. What  is  Risk?   •  Risk  is  an  uncertain  event  or  condiJon  that,  if  it   occurs,  has  a  posiJve  or  negaJve  effect  on  a   project’s  objecJves   •  Example  of  posiJve  events   –  You  ordered  new  soVware  which  is  cheaper  than  your   old  soVware  because  of  budget  constraints.  However,   the  new  soVware  turns  out  to  be  more  efficient.   •  Example  of  negaJve  events   –  The  government  mandates  a  compulsory  holiday  due   to  an  outbreak  of  swine  flu.  The  project  gets  delayed   Copyright@STEVBROS   STEVBROS  -­‐  Global  PMI  R.E.P   3  
  • 4. Concepts   •  Risk  appe9te,  which  is  the  degree  of  uncertainty  an   enJty  is  willing  to  take  on,  in  anJcipaJon  of  a  reward.   •  Risk  averse,  one  who  does  not  take  risks.   •   Risk  tolerance,  which  is  the  degree,  amount,  or   volume  of  risk  that  an  organizaJon  or  individual  will   withstand.     •  Risk  threshold,  which  refers  to  measures  along  the   level  of  uncertainty  or  the  level  of  impact  at  which  a   stakeholder  may  have  a  specific  interest.  Below  that   risk  threshold,  the  organizaJon  will  accept  the  risk.   Above  that  risk  threshold,  the  organizaJon  will  not   tolerate  the  risk.     Copyright@STEVBROS   STEVBROS  -­‐  Global  PMI  R.E.P   4  
  • 5. Risk  categorizaJon    examples   •  Example  1:     –  External:  regulatory,  governmental,  subcontractors,  suppliers,  and   environmental     –  Internal:  funding,  resource,  and  prioriJzaJon   –  Technical:  requirements,  technology,  and  quality   –  Project  Management:  esJmaJng,  planning,  schedule,  and  communicaJon   •  Example  2:   –  Schedule  risk:?   –  Cost  Risk?   –  Quality  Risk?   –  Scope  Risk:  Looks  like  you  have  not  understood  the  work  properly  and  you   might  have  to  redo  the  whole  thing!     –  Resource  Risk:  CEO  has  asked  the  technical  architect  to  work  on  another   project.  In  such  cases,  who  would  make  design  decisions  on  the  projects?   Copyright@STEVBROS   STEVBROS  -­‐  Global  PMI  R.E.P   5  
  • 6. Plan  risk     management   •  The   process   of   defining   how   to   conduct   risk   management   acJviJes   for   a   project.   The   key   benefit   of   this   process   is   it   ensures   that   the   degree,   type,   and   visibility   of   risk   management  are  commensurate  with  both  the  risks  and  the   importance  of  the  project  to  the  organizaJon.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   6   A  Guide  to  the  Project  Management  Body  of  Knowledge,  FiEh  Edi9on  (PMBOK®  Guide)  ©2013  Project  Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All  Rights  Reserved.    Figure  11-­‐2  Page  313.  
  • 7. Inputs   1.  Project  Management  Plan     –  all   approved   subsidiary   management   plans   and   baselines   should   be   taken  into  consideraJon  in  order  to  make  the  risk  management  plan   consistent  with  them   2.  Project  Charter     –  can  provide  various  inputs  such  as  high-­‐level  risks,  high-­‐level  project   descripJons,  and  high-­‐level  requirements.     3.  Stakeholder  Register     4.  Enterprise  Environmental  Factors     –  contain   risk   aetudes,   thresholds,   and   tolerances   that   describe   the   degree  of  risk  that  an  organizaJon  will  withstand.     5.  OrganizaJonal  Process  Assets     –  contain   risk   categories,   common   definiJons   of   concepts   and   terms,   risk  statement  formats,  standard  templates,  roles  and  responsibiliJes,   authority  levels  for  decision  making,  and  lessons  learned.       Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   7  
  • 8. Tools  and   techniques   1.  AnalyJcal  Techniques   – for   example,   a   stakeholder   risk   profile   analysis   may   be   performed   to   grade   and   qualify   the   project   stakeholder   risk   appeJte   and   tolerance.   Other  techniques,  such  as  the  use  of  strategic  risk   scoring   sheets,   are   used   to   provide   a   high-­‐level   assessment   of   the   risk   exposure   of   the   project   based  on  the  overall  project  context.     2.  Expert  Judgment   3.  MeeJngs     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   8  
  • 9. Outputs   1.  Risk  Management  Plan     –  Methodology:   approaches,   tools,   and   data   sources   that   will   be   used  to  perform  risk  management  on  the  project.     –  Roles  and  responsibiliJes   –  BudgeJng   –  Timing   –  Risk  categories   –  DefiniJons  of  risk  probability  and  impact   –  Probability  and  impact  matrix  (details  at  next  slide).     –  Revised  stakeholders’  tolerances.   –  ReporJng  formats   –  Tracking:  documents  how  risk  acJviJes  will  be  recorded  for  the   benefit   of   the   current   project   and   how   risk   management   processes  will  be  audited.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   9  
  • 10. Probability  &   impact  matrix   •  Risk  Probability:  High:  50  percent  or  higher  (likely);  Medium:  Between  10   and  50  percent  (unlikely);  Low:  10  percent  or  lower  (very  unlikely).   •  Risk  Impact:   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   10   A  Guide  to  the   Project   Management   Body  of   Knowledge,  FiEh   Edi9on  (PMBOK®   Guide)  ©2013   Project   Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.       All  Rights   Reserved.    Table   11-­‐1  Page  318.  
  • 11. IdenJfy  risks   •  The   process   of   determining   which   risks   may   affect   the   project   and   documenJng  their  characterisJcs.  The  key  benefit  of  this  process  is  the   documentaJon  of  exisJng  risks  and  the  knowledge  and  ability  it  provides   to  the  project  team  to  anJcipate  events.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   11   A  Guide  to  the  Project  Management  Body  of  Knowledge,  FiEh  Edi9on  (PMBOK®  Guide)  ©2013  Project  Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All  Rights  Reserved.    Figure  11-­‐5  Page  319.  
  • 12. Inputs(1/3)   1.  Risk  Management  Plan   –  are  the  assignments  of  roles  and  responsibiliJes,  provision  for  risk   management  acJviJes  in  the  budget  and  schedule,  and  categories   of   risk,   which   are   someJmes   expressed   as   a   risk   breakdown   structure     2.  Cost  Management  Plan   –  provides  processes  and  controls  that  can  be  used  to  help  idenJfy   risks  across  the  project.   3.  Schedule  Management  Plan   –  provides   insight   to   project   Jme/schedule   objecJves   and   expectaJons   which   may   be   impacted   by   risks   (known   and   unknown).   4.  Quality  Management  Plan   –  provides   a   baseline   of   quality   measures   and   metrics   for   use   in   idenJfying  risks.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   12  
  • 13. Inputs(2/3)   5.  Human  Resource  Management  Plan     –  provides   guidance   on   how   project   human   resources   should   be   defined,  staffed,  managed,  and  eventually  released.   6.   Scope  Baseline     –  uncertainty   in   project   assumpJons   should   be   evaluated   as   potenJal  causes  of  project  risk.   –  the   WBS   is   a   criJcal   input   to   idenJfying   risks   as   it   facilitates   an   understanding  of  the  potenJal  risks  at  both  the  micro  and  macro   levels.   Risks   can   be   idenJfied   and   subsequently   tracked   at   summary,  control  account,  and/or  work  package  levels.     7.  AcJvity  Cost  EsJmates     –  acJvity  cost  esJmate  reviews  are  useful  in  idenJfying  risks     8.  AcJvity  DuraJon  EsJmates     –  acJvity  duraJon  esJmate  reviews  are  useful  in  idenJfying  risks     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   13  
  • 14. Inputs(3/3)   9.  Stakeholder  Register     –  ensure   that   key   stakeholders,   especially   the   stakeholder,   sponsor,   and   customer   are   interviewed   or   otherwise   parJcipate   during   the   IdenJfy   Risks   process   10.  Project  Documents     –  include   project   charter,   project   schedule,   schedule   network   diagrams,   issue   log,   quality   checklist,   and   other   informaJon   proven   to   be   valuable   in   idenJfying  risks.     11.  Procurement  Documents     –  the  complexity  and  the  level  of  detail  of  the  procurement  documents  should  be   consistent  with  the  value  of,  and  risks  associated  with,  planned  procurement.   12.  Enterprise  Environmental  Factors   –  include   published   informaJon,   including   commercial   databases,   academic   studies,   published   checklists,   benchmarking,   industry   studies,   and   risk   aetudes.   13.  OrganizaJonal  Process  Assets     –  include  project  files,  including  actual  data,  organizaJonal  and  project  process   controls,  risk  statement  formats  or  templates,  and  lessons  learned.     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   14  
  • 15. Tools  and   techniques(1/2)   1.  DocumentaJon  Reviews     –  The  quality  of  the  plans,  as  well  as  consistency  between  those  plans  and   the  project  requirements  and  assumpJons,  may  be  indicators  of  risk  in  the   project.     2.  InformaJon  Gathering  Techniques     –  Include  brainstorming,  Delphi  technique,  Interviewing,  Root  cause  analysis.     3.  Checklist  Analysis     –  are   developed   based   on   historical   informaJon   and   knowledge   that   has   been  accumulated  from  previous  similar  projects  and  from  other  sources   of   informaJon.   The   lowest   level   of   the   RBS   can   also   be   used   as   a   risk   checklist.   4.  AssumpJons  Analysis   –  Every  project  and  its  plan  is  conceived  and  developed  based  on  a  set  of   hypotheses,  scenarios,  or  assumpJons.  AssumpJons  analysis  explores  the   validity  of  assumpJons  as  they  apply  to  the  project.  It  idenJfies  risks  to  the   project   from   inaccuracy,   instability,   inconsistency,   or   incompleteness   of   assumpJons.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   15  
  • 16. Tools  and   techniques(2/2)   5.  Diagramming  Techniques   –  Include  Cause  and  effect  diagrams,  System  or  process   flow  charts,  Influence  diagrams.  (details  at  next  slides)   6.  SWOT  Analysis     –  examines   the   project   from   each   of   the   strengths,   weaknesses,  opportuniJes,  and  threats  (SWOT)     perspecJves  to  increase  the  breadth  of  idenJfied  risks   by  including  internally  generated  risks   7.  Expert  Judgment     –  Risks   may   be   idenJfied   directly   by   experts   with   relevant  experience  with  similar  projects  or  business   areas.     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   16  
  • 17. Root-­‐cause   analysis   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   17  
  • 18. Influence   diagram   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   18  
  • 19. Outputs   1.  Risk  Register   – List  of  idenJfied  risks:       •  A   structure   for   describing   risks   using   risk   statements   may  be  applied,  for  example,  EVENT  may  occur  causing   IMPACT,  or  If  CAUSE  exists,  EVENT  may  occur  leading  to   EFFECT.     •  In  addiJon  to  the  list  of  idenJfied  risks,  the  root  causes   of  those  risks  may  become  more  evident.   – List  of  potenJal  responses   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   19  
  • 20. Perform  qualitaJve   risk  analysis   •  The  process  of  prioriJzing  risks  for  further  analysis  or  acJon  by  assessing   and  combining  their  probability  of  occurrence  and  impact.  The  key  benefit   of  this  process  is  that  it  enables  project  managers  to  reduce  the  level  of   uncertainty  and  to  focus  on  high-­‐priority  risks.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   20   A  Guide  to  the  Project  Management  Body  of  Knowledge,  FiEh  Edi9on  (PMBOK®  Guide)  ©2013  Project  Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All  Rights  Reserved.    Figure  11-­‐8  Page  328.  
  • 21. Inputs   1.  Risk  Management  Plan   –  Analysis   process   include   roles   and   responsibiliJes   for   conducJng   risk   management,   budgets,   schedule   acJviJes   for   risk   management,   risk   categories,   definiJons   of   probability   and   impact,   the   probability   and   impact  matrix,  and  revised  stakeholders’  risk  tolerances   2.  Scope  Baseline   –  E.g.   Projects   of   a   common   or   recurrent   type   tend   to   have   more   well-­‐ understood   risks.   Projects   using   state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art   or   first-­‐of-­‐its-­‐kind   technology,  and  highly  complex  projects,  tend  to  have  more  uncertainty.   3.  Risk  Register     –  contains  the  informaJon  that  will  be  used  to  assess  and  prioriJze  risks.     4.  Enterprise  Environmental  Factors     –  include   industry   studies   of   similar   projects   by   risk   specialists,   and   risk   databases  that  may  be  available  from  industry  or  proprietary  sources.     5.  OrganizaJonal  Process  Assets     –  include  informaJon  on  prior,  similar  completed  projects   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   21  
  • 22. Tools  and   techniques   1.  Risk  Probability  and  Impact  Assessment  (next  slides)   2.  Probability  and  Impact  Matrix  (next  slides)   3.  Risk  Data  Quality  Assessment     –  assessment  is  a  technique  to  evaluate  the  degree  to  which  the  data  about  risks  is   useful  for  risk  management.  It  involves  examining  the  degree  to  which  the  risk  is   understood  and  the  accuracy,  quality,  reliability,  and  integrity  of  the  data  about   the  risk.   4.  Risk  CategorizaJon     –  risks  to  the  project  can  be  categorized  by  sources  of  risk  (e.g.,  using  the  RBS),  the   area  of  the  project  affected  (e.g.,  using  the  WBS),  or  other  useful  categories  (e.g.,   project  phase)  to  determine  the  areas  of  the  project  most  exposed  to  the  effects   of  uncertainty.  Risks  can  also  be  categorized  by  common  root  causes.     5.  Risk  Urgency  Assessment     –  risks  requiring  near-­‐term  responses  may  be  considered  more  urgent  to  address.   Indicators  of  priority  may  include  probability  of  detecJng  the  risk,  Jme  to  affect  a   risk  response,  symptoms  and  warning  signs,  and  the  risk  raJng.   6.  Expert  Judgment     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   22  
  • 23. Probability  &   impact  matrix   •  Risk  Probability:  High:  50  percent  or  higher  (likely);  Medium:  Between  10   and  50  percent  (unlikely);  Low:  10  percent  or  lower  (very  unlikely).   •  Risk  Impact:   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   23   A  Guide  to  the   Project   Management   Body  of   Knowledge,  FiEh   Edi9on  (PMBOK®   Guide)  ©2013   Project   Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All   Rights  Reserved.     Table  11-­‐1  Page   318.  
  • 24. Probability  &   impact  matrix   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   24   A  Guide  to  the  Project  Management  Body  of  Knowledge,  FiEh  Edi9on  (PMBOK®  Guide)  ©2013  Project  Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All  Rights  Reserved.    Figure  11-­‐10  Page  331.  
  • 25. Outputs   1.  Project  Documents  Updates     –  Risk  register  updates.     •  As   new   informaJon   becomes   available   through   the   qualitaJve  risk  assessment,  the  risk  register  is  updated.     •  Updates   to   the   risk   register   may   include   assessments   of   probability  and  impacts  for  each  risk,  risk  ranking  or  scores,   risk  urgency  informaJon  or  risk  categorizaJon,  and  a  watch   list  for  low  probability  risks  or  risks  requiring  further  analysis.     –  AssumpJons  log  updates.     •  As   new   informaJon   becomes   available   through   the   qualitaJve  risk  assessment,  assumpJons  could  change.     •  The  assumpJons  log  needs  to  be  revisited  to  accommodate   this  new  informaJon.  AssumpJons  may  be  incorporated  into   the  project  scope  statement  or  in  a  separate  assumpJons  log.     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   25  
  • 26. Perform  quanJtaJve   risk  analysis   •  The   process   of   numerically   analyzing   the   effect   of   idenJfied   risks   on   overall   project   objecJves.   The   key   benefit   of   this   process   is   that   it   produces  quanJtaJve  risk  informaJon  to  support  decision  making  in  order   to  reduce  project  uncertainty.  This  process  isn’t  applied  for  projects  with   low  complexity,  low  dollar  value.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   26   A  Guide  to  the  Project  Management  Body  of  Knowledge,  FiEh  Edi9on  (PMBOK®  Guide)  ©2013  Project  Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All  Rights  Reserved.    Figure  11-­‐11  Page  334.  
  • 27. Inputs   1.  Risk  Management  Plan   –  provides   guidelines,   methods,   and   tools   to   be   used   in   quanJtaJve   risk   analysis.     2.  Cost  Management  Plan   –  provides  guidelines  on  establishing  and  managing  risk  reserves.     3.  Schedule  Management  Plan   –  plan  provides  guidelines  on  establishing  and  managing  risk  reserves.     4.  Risk  Register     –  register  is  used  as  a  reference  point  for  performing  quanJtaJve  risk     analysis.     5.  Enterprise  Environmental  Factors     –  include   industry   studies   of   similar   projects   by   risk   specialists,   and   risk   databases  that  may  be  available  from  industry  or  proprietary  sources.     6.  OrganizaJonal  Process  Assets     –  include  informaJon  from  prior,  similar  completed  projects.     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   27  
  • 28. Tools  and   techniques   1.  Data  Gathering  and  RepresentaJon  Techniques     –  Such  as  interviewing,  probability  distribuJons  (PERT)   2.  QuanJtaJve  Risk  Analysis  and  Modeling  Techniques     –  Such   as   sensiJvity   analysis,   expected   monetary   value   analysis,  modeling  and  simulaJon  (next  slides)   3.  Expert  Judgment     –  Expert  judgment  also  comes  into  play  in  the  interpretaJon   of   the   data.   Experts   should   be   able   to   idenJfy   the   weaknesses  of  the  tools  as  well  as  their  strengths.  Experts   may   determine   when   a   specific   tool   may   or   may   not   be   more   appropriate   given   the   organizaJon’s   capabiliJes   and   culture.      Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   28  
  • 29. Decision  Tree  and  EMV   •  EVM used with Decision Tree to choose between many alternative which take into account the future events •  Example: [ ]∑ ×= (Impact)ty)(ProbabiliEVM Example  Source:   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   29  
  • 30. SensiJvity  Analysis   •  To determine which risks have the most potential impact to the project •  Changing one or more elements/variables and set other elements to its baseline then see the impact. •  One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   30  
  • 31. Modeling  and    simulaJon   A   Guide   to   the   Project   Management   B o d y   o f   Knowledge,     FiEh   Edi9on   ( P M B O K ®   G u i d e )   © 2 0 1 3   P r o j e c t   Management   Ins9tute,   Inc.     A l l   R i g h t s   Reserved.     Figure   11-­‐17   Page  340.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   31  
  • 32. Outputs   1.  Project  Documents  Updates     –  ProbabilisJc   analysis   of   the   project:   EsJmates   are   made  of  potenJal  project  schedule  and  cost  outcomes   lisJng   the   possible   compleJon   dates   and   costs   with   their  associated  confidence  levels.   –  Probability  of  achieving  cost  and  Jme  objecJves:  For   instance,  in  Figure  11-­‐17,  the  likelihood  of  achieving   the  cost  esJmate  of  US$41  million  is  about  12%   –  PrioriJzed  list  of  quanJfied  risks   –  Trends   in   quanJtaJve   risk   analysis   results:   As   the   analysis   is   repeated,   a   trend   may   become   apparent   that  leads  to  conclusions  affecJng  risk  responses   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   32  
  • 33. Plan  risk  response   •  The   process   of   developing   opJons   and   acJons   to   enhance   opportuniJes  and  to  reduce  threats  to  project  objecJves.  The   key   benefit   of   this   process   is   that   it   addresses   the   risks   by   their   priority,   inserJng   resources   and   acJviJes   into   the   budget,  schedule  and  project  management  plan  as  needed.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   33   A  Guide  to  the  Project  Management  Body  of  Knowledge,  FiEh  Edi9on  (PMBOK®  Guide)  ©2013  Project  Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All  Rights  Reserved.    Figure  11-­‐18  Page  342.  
  • 34. Inputs   1.  Risk  Management  Plan   –  include  roles  and  responsibiliJes,  risk  analysis  definiJons,   Jming  for  reviews  (and  for  eliminaJng  risks  from  review),   and  risk  thresholds  for  low,  moderate,  and  high  risks.  Risk   thresholds   help   idenJfy   those   risks   for   which   specific   responses  are  needed.   2.  Risk  Register   –  refers   to   idenJfied   risks,   root   causes   of   risks,   lists   of   potenJal  responses,  risk  owners,  symptoms  and  warning   signs,   the   relaJve   raJng   or   priority   list   of   project   risks,   risks   requiring   responses   in   the   near   term,   risks   for   addiJonal   analysis   and   response,   trends   in   qualitaJve   analysis  results,  and  a  watch  list,  which  is  a  list  of  low-­‐   priority  risks  within  the  risk  register.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   34  
  • 35. Tools  and   techniques  (1/3)   1.  Strategies  for  NegaJve  Risk  or  Threats:   –  Avoid:   Eliminate   the   threat   enJrely,   isolate   project   objecJves  from  the  risk’s  impact.   –  Transfer  (Deflect,  Allocate):  shiV  some  or  all  the  negaJve   impact  of  a  threat  to  a  third  party   –  MiJgate:   implies   a   reducJon   in   the   probability   and/or   impact   of   an   adverse   risk   event   to   be   within   acceptable   threshold  limits   –  Accept:   deal   with   the   risks,   project   management   plan   is   not  changed   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   35  
  • 36. Tools  and   techniques  (2/3)   2.  Strategies  for  PosiJve  Risks  or  OpportuniJes:   – Exploit:  seek  to  ensure  the  opportuniJes  definitely   happen   – Share:  allocate  some  or  all  of  the  ownership  of  the   opportunity   to   a   third   party   who   is   best   able   to   capture  the  opportunity  for  the  project  benefit.   – Enhance:   increase   the   probability   and/or   the   posiJve  impacts  of  an  opportunity.   – Accept:  not  acJvely  pursuing  an  opportunity   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   36  
  • 37. Tools  and   techniques(3/3)   3.  ConJngent  Response  Strategies   –  contain  events  that  trigger  the  conJngency  response,  such   as   missing   intermediate   milestones   or   gaining   higher   priority   with   a   supplier,   should   be   defined   and   tracked.   Risk   responses   idenJfied   using   this   technique   are   oVen   called   conJngency   plans   or   fallback   plans   and   include   idenJfied  triggering  events  that  set  the  plans  in  effect.     4.  Expert  Judgment     –  is   input   from   knowledgeable   parJes   pertaining   to   the   acJons  to  be  taken  on  a  specific  and  defined  risk.  ExperJse   may  be  provided  by  any  group  or  person  with  specialized   educaJon,   knowledge,   skill,   experience,   or   training   in   establishing  risk  responses.     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   37  
  • 38. Outputs(1/2)   •  Project  Management  Plan  Updates     Include   schedule   management   plan,   cost   management   plan,   quality   management   plan,   procurement   management   plan,   human   resource   management   plan,   scope   baseline,   schedule  baseline,  cost  baseline.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   38  
  • 39. Outputs  (2/2)   •  Project  Documents  Updates     –  Update  to  risk  register   •  Risk  owners  and  assigned  responsibiliJes;     •  Agreed-­‐upon  response  strategies;     •  Specific  acJons  to  implement  the  chosen  response  strategy;     •  Trigger  condiJons,  symptoms,  and  warning  signs  of  a  risk  occurrence;     •  Budget  and  schedule  acJviJes  required  to  implement  the  chosen  responses;     •  ConJngency  plans  and  triggers  that  call  for  their  execuJon;     •  Fallback   plans   for   use   as   a   reacJon   to   a   risk   that   has   occurred   and   the   primary   response  proves  to  be  inadequate;     •  Residual   risks   that   are   expected   to   remain   aVer   planned   responses   have   been   taken,  as  well  as  those  that  have  been  deliberately  accepted;     •  Secondary  risks  that  arise  as  a  direct  outcome  of  implemenJng  a  risk  response;  and     •  ConJngency  reserves  that  are  calculated  based  on  the  quanJtaJve  risk  analysis  of   the  project  and  the  organizaJon’s  risk  thresholds.     –  Other   updates:   assumpJons   log   updates,   technical   documentaJon   updates,  change  requests   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   39  
  • 40. Control  risks   •  The  process  of  implemenJng  risk  response  plans,  tracking  idenJfied  risks,   monitoring  residual  risks,  idenJfying  new  risks,  and  evaluaJng  risk  process   effecJveness   throughout   the   project.   The   key   benefit   of   this   process   is   that  it  improves  efficiency  of  the  risk  approach  throughout  the  project  life   cycle  to  conJnuously  opJmize  risk  responses.     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   40   A  Guide  to  the  Project  Management  Body  of  Knowledge,  FiEh  Edi9on  (PMBOK®  Guide)  ©2013  Project  Management   Ins9tute,  Inc.    All  Rights  Reserved.    Figure  10-­‐20  Page  349.  
  • 41. Inputs   1.  Project  Management  Plan     –  includes  the  risk  management  plan,  provides  guidance  for  risk  monitoring   and  controlling.     2.  Risk  Register     –  has  key  inputs  that  include  idenJfied  risks  and  risk  owners,  agreed-­‐upon   risk  responses,  control  acJons  for  assessing  the  effecJveness  of  response   plans,   risk   responses,   specific   implementaJon   acJons,   symptoms   and   warning  signs  of  risk,  residual  and  secondary  risks,  a  watch  list  of  low-­‐ priority  risks,  and  the  Jme  and  cost  conJngency  reserves   3.  Work  Performance  Data     –  deliverable  status,  schedule  progress,  and  costs  incurred   4.  Work  Performance  Reports     –  take   informaJon   from   performance   measurements   and   analyze   it   to   provide   project   work   performance   informaJon   including   variance   analysis,  earned  value  data,  and  forecasJng  data.  These  data  points  could   be  impacsul  in  controlling  performance  related  risks.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   41  
  • 42. Tools  and   techniques   1.  Risk  Reassessment   –  oVen   results   in   idenJficaJon   of   new   risks,   reassessment   of   current   risks,   and   the   closing  of  risks  that  are  outdated.  Risk  reassessments  should  be  regularly  scheduled   2.  Risk  Audits   –  examine  and  document  the  effecJveness  of  risk  responses  in  dealing  with  idenJfied   risks   and   their   root   causes,   as   well   as   the   effecJveness   of   the   risk   management   process.     3.  Variance  and  Trend  Analysis     4.  Technical  Performance  Measurement     –  compares   technical   accomplishments   during   project   execuJon   to   the   schedule   of   technical   achievement.   Such   technical   performance   measures   may   include   weight,   transacJon  Jmes,  number  of  delivered  defects,  storage  capacity,  etc.  DeviaJon,  such   as  demonstraJng  more  or  less  funcJonality  than  planned  at  a  milestone,  can  help  to   forecast  the  degree  of  success  in  achieving  the  project’s  scope.     5.  Reserve  Analysis     –  compares  the  amount  of  the  conJngency  reserves  remaining  to  the  amount  of  risk   remaining  at  any  Jme  in  the  project  in  order  to  determine  if  the  remaining  reserve  is   adequate.   6.  MeeJngs     Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   42  
  • 43. Outputs   1.  Work  Performance  InformaJon     2.  Change  Requests     –  ImplemenJng  conJngency  plans  or  workarounds  someJmes  results  in  a   change   request.   It   includes   recommended   correcJve   acJons,   recommended  prevenJve  acJons   3.  Project  Management  Plan  Updates   4.  Project  Documents  Updates   –  outcomes  of  risk  reassessments,  risk  audits,  and  periodic  risk  reviews.   5.  Actual  outcomes  of  the  project’s  risks  and  of  the  risk  responses   6.  OrganizaJonal  Process  Assets  Updates     –  include  templates  for  the  risk  management  plan,  including  the  probability   and   impact   matrix   and   risk   register;   risk   breakdown   structure;   and   lessons  learned  from  the  project  risk  management  acJviJes.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   43  
  • 44. Summary   IdenJfy  Risk   • Input:  uncertainJes   • Output:  risk  register   QualitaJve/ QuanJtaJve   Analysis   • Input:  risk  register   • Output:  updated  risk  register,  watch-­‐list   Plan  Risk  Response   • Input:  risk  register   • Output:  conJngency  plan,  fallback  plan,  residual  risk,  secondary  risk   Control  Risk   • Input:  risk  register   • Output:  workaround,  correcJve  acJons,  prevenJve  acJons   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   44  
  • 45. Summary   •  Watch   list,   residual   risk,   secondary   risk,   fallback   plan,   conJngency   plan,   conJngency   reserve,  workarounds.   •  4  response  strategies  for  threads.   •  4  response  strategies  for  opportunity.   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   45  
  • 46. QuesJons   for  review   Copyright@STEVBROS   Project  Mamagement  Fundamentals   46   •  You  did  the  good  job  at  this  chapter.    Please   complete  quesJons  for  review  before  moving   to  next  chapter.