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U.S. Energy Outlook




Ramon Sanchez (rsanchez@hsph.harvard.edu)
           Harvard University
              April 4, 2012
U.S. Total Energy Market Share
           by Type of Fuel




                     Slide # 2
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Petroleum Fuel

    Price of fuel presents variations




                            Slide # 3
 Ramon Sanchez
 Harvard University
Energy in Transportation
Fuel Used in the USA in 2009
                                                     2009
Air
Certificated carriersa
 Jet fuel (million gallons)                                 11,147
General aviationb
 Aviation gasoline (million gallons)                          227
 Jet fuel (million gallons)                                 1,447
Highway

Gasoline, diesel and other fuels (million gallons)
 Light duty vehicle, short wheel base and
 motorcyclec                                            86,035
 Light duty vehicle, long wheel basec                   35,764
 Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more truck                16,342
 Combination truck                                      28,130
 Bus                                                     1,869
Transitd
Electricity (million kWh)                                   4,695
Motor fuel (million gallons)
 Diesele                              f
                                                              658
 Gasoline and other nondiesel fuels                            98
 Compressed natural gas                                       142    Transportation Mode   Energy used
Rail, Class I (in freight service)
Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons)                  3,192
                                                                     (MJ)
Amtrak                                                               Highway               2.35E+13
Electricity (million kWh)                                     565
Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons)                     62    Air                   1.97E+12
Water
Residual fuel oil (million gallons)                         4,543
                                                                     Water                 3.34E+11
Distillate / diesel fuel oil (million gallons)              1,266    Transit               1.42E+11
Gasoline (million gallons)                                  1,130
                                                                     Amtrak
                                                                       Slide # 4
                                                                                           1.16E+10
   Ramon Sanchez
   Harvard University
Transportation per type of
                                 vehicle
Transportation Mode           Passenger Miles Traveled in the USA in 2008
(Millions)
Passenger Vehicles                      3199116
SUVs                          1049667
Air Carriers                  583281
Intercity Buses               314278
Trucks                        310681
Motorcycles                   26430
Inner City Buses              21198
Heavy Rail                    16850
Commuter Rail                 11032
Amtrak                        6179
Light Rail                              2081
Other                         1156
Taxis                         844
Ferry Boat                    390
Trolley Bus                   161
                                               Slide # 5
   Ramon Sanchez
   Harvard University
Current Trends in Transportation

     Energy efficient vehicles, people are
      finding ways to use less fuel

     Emerging Technologies (diesel, hybrid and
      electric vehicles)




                          Slide # 6
 Ramon Sanchez
 Harvard University
Hybrid vehicles


                                                    For every 100
                                                    Units of Input
                                                    Energy you
                                                    get 32 Output
                                                    Units (Overall
                                                    40 – 50 mpg)




                                        Slide # 7
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard School of Public Health
Hybrid Vehicle Technology




                                  Slide # 8
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard School of Public Health
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

                                         Plug-in Hybrid: It is an electric vehicle
                                         that uses Lithium-ion technology
                                         batteries to achieve an autonomy of 35
                                         miles per charge (Chevy Volt). If the
                                         user would like to drive for longer
                                         distances, the hybrid system would
                                         activate the internal combustion engine
                                         and the car would become a hybrid
                                         vehicle. Under just electric operation it
                                         would give you an equivalent of 165
                                         miles/gallon and in the hybrid operation
                                         you would get 140 miles/gallon. It takes
                                         8 to 6 hours to recharge the battery, but
                                         it could potentially be used as a
                                         supplemental energy source for your
                                         home after a long drive, it may be good
                                      Slide # 9
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard School of Public Health          for 98 % of non-heavy duty applications.
Limitations for plug-in hybrid
             vehicle technologies
       Concerns about environmental equity, pollution
        from mobile sources in urban areas might switch
        to point sources in rural areas (i.e. Power Plants)

       Supply problems with rare earths needed for
        electromagnetic components




                               Slide # 10
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Electricity by type of fuel in the
                    U.S.
                      Proportion of U.S.
 Energy Source
                       electricity (2010)
      Coal                   44.0%
   Natural Gas               24.0%
     Nuclear                 19.5%
   Hydroelectric             6.3%
Biomass and other            3.5%
       Oil                   0.9%
      Wind                   0.8%
      Solar                  0.7%
   Geothermal                0.3%


          Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration




                                            Slide # 11
 Ramon Sanchez
 Harvard University
Electricity Residential Average
             Price in the USA




                     Slide # 12
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Emission factors for
                     conventional electricity
       Different emissions for electricity from different
        fuel sources




Source: Air pollution from electricity-generating large combustion plants
An assessment of the theoretical emission reduction of SO2 and NOX
through implementation of BAT as set in the BREFs . European Environmental
Agency
                                   Slide # 13
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Electricity from Natural Gas with
          Co-generation
         Natural Gas represents 24% of
          electricity




   It has a higher efficiency than any other type of conventional power
   generation facility (close to 50% efficiency)
                                        Slide # 14
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Hydroelectric Power

    A hydroelectric dam, provides relatively
     clean energy and serves as a water
     reserve for agriculture and human
     consumption




                              Slide # 15
 Ramon Sanchez
 Harvard University
Hydroelectric Power




                             Slide # 16
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Nuclear Power




                                       It represents almost 20% of all
                                       energy produced in the USA


                          Slide # 17
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
The Clean Coal Dilemma

         What is Clean Coal ?
                              Monoethanolamine Plant:
                              Used to toxic emissions and
                              Capture CO2




                               Slide # 18
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
The Clean Coal Dilemma

            Problems with Carbon Capture and
             Sequestration (i.e. Clean Coal)
                                  Energy Intensive: Electricity output decreases
                                  between 18 and 23%
                                  Capital costs increase by 60%
                                  Operating costs increase by 30-40%
                                  Electricity prices increase between 80 to 100%
                                  Long-term health effects from carbon capture are
                                  unknown
  Clean Coal is not a myth, it    Carbon sequestration is uncertain, certain
is just too expensive.            geological formations are required to capture
Electricity generators are        carbon underground
unwilling to invest if there is
                                  Capture period is uncertain, constant monitoring
no legislative mandate
                                  and risk analysis are needed
                                       Slide # 19
   Ramon Sanchez
   Harvard University
Solution to Clean Coal
Dilemma might be in renewable
              fuels
         Renewable Fuels: They come from
          carbohydrates and lipids from plants
          and animals, they are replenished
          consistently every year




                            Slide # 20
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Non-edible crops

    Potential Solution to renewable fuel problems:
     Non-edible Energy Crops (low water
     requirements)




                      Jatropha Curcas                Microalgae Farming

                                        Slide # 21
 Ramon Sanchez
 Harvard University
Microalgae Farming

            Area of opportunity: Algae Biodiesel
Species                      Algae      Inoculation +CO2             Mixing       Harvesting     Extraction
Selection                    Culture    and nutrients




                                          Soap and                  Glycerin Recovery
                                          Cosmetics




   Biodiesel
                                                       Slide # 22
   Ramon Sanchez
   Harvard University Public Health
           School of
                                                                                           Transesterification
Algae farming might pay for
                      Clean Coal
           Results Carbon Capture + Algae Farm
                    Reduction of 76% in the carbon intensity of fuels
                     (compared to fossil fuels)

                    Reduction of 95% in the carbon intensity of electricity
                     with no additional costs (the algae farm pays for
                      Clean Coal operation)

                    Elimination of 95% of toxic emissions from power
                     plants

                                    +                       =
                                             Slide # 23
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Photovoltaic Electricity

         Costs have decreased by 70% in the past
          decade                           New
                                                           Technologies:
                                                           Solar laminate
                                                           panels




                     PV is an international
                     commodity

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYJe12X6T50

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?
 v=VdQK5wq4T_E&feature=fvwp&NR=1
                                              Slide # 24
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Concentrated Solar Power Tech

         Emerging




 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIv-gbZQC4k&feature=fvsr
                                  Slide # 25
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
New Waste-To-Energy Tech

         Reduced toxic emissions and solid
          waste



                                                                  Plasma
                                                                  incinerator:
                                                                  Produces
                                                                  electricity from
                                                                  trash, produces
                                                                  synthetic gas and
                                                                  reduces landfill
                                                                  space
                                         Slide # 26
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVKm_i0Fvw8
Energy Efficiency Programs

         People embrace this program
                       Electricity used in
                       Commercial Buildings
                       in the USA


                                              SEDS: State Energy
                                              Data Systems




                               Space
                               Cooling




                               Slide # 27
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Wind Power




                         Slide # 28
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Fuel Cell Vehicle




                                                      It has no mobile parts in its engine, it
                                                      gets its energy from the reaction of
                                                      Hydrogen and Oxygen. The issue,
                                                      how do you get, store and distribute
                                                      the hydrogen???


                                         Slide # 29
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard School of Public Health
Fuel Cell Technology

    The main problem
     with fuel cells is:
     How do you get
     the hydrogen in a
     sustainable way?




                                   Slide # 30
     Ramon Sanchez
     Harvard University
New Technologies to get
                              hydrogen
Daniel Nocera, formerly at
MIT, now a Professor in the
Harvard School of
Engineering and Applied
Sciences




                                   Slide # 31
   Ramon Sanchez
   Harvard University
Opportunities for domestic fuel
                cells




                     For more information, click in the following link:
                     http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/03/clean-energy-
                     pioneer-brings-lab-to-harvard/
                                               Slide # 32
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Other applications for fuel cells




                     For more information, click in the following links:
                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khK_QTWl5Nc
                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaNGJul2FZ0&feature=endscreen&NR=1
                                                 Slide # 33
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Questions??




                          Slide # 34
Ramon Sanchez ©
Harvard University
Thank you!!!

  There is nothing more
difficult to execute nor
more dubious of success nor
more dangerous to administer
than to introduce a New Order
of Things




                                Slide # 35
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Potential problems with
           conventional renewable fuels
                     Oil Producing Crop           Scientific Name             Kg of oil/ Hectare .Yr
                     Corn                         Zea mays                    145
                     Cotton                       Gossypium hirsutum          273
                     Hemp                         Cannabis sativa             305
                     Soy Beans                    Glycine max                 375
                     Linseed                      Linum usitatissimum         402
                     Cartamus                     Carthamus tinctorius        655
                     Buffalo plant                Cucurbita foetidissima      665
                     Rice                         Oriza sativa L.             696
                     Sunflower                    Helianthus annuus           800
                     Cocoa Beans                  Theobroma cacao             863
                     Penauts                      Arachis hypogaea            890
                     Canola                       Brassica napus              1000
                     Olive                        Olea europaea               1019
                     Castor                       Ricinus communis            1188
                     Pecan                        Carya illinoensis           1505
                     Jojoba                       Simmondsia chinensis        1528
                     Babassu Palm                 Orbignya martiana           1541
                     Jatropha                     Jatropha curcas             1590
                     Avocado                      Persea americana            2217
                     Coconut                      Cocos nucifera              2260
                     Maacauba Palm                Acrocomia aculeata          3775
                     Oil Palm                     Elaeis guineensis           5000
                     Spirulina microalgae         Spirullina Sp.              18000
                     Diatom algae                 Chlorella Diatomea family   43200
                     Nannochoropsis (off-shore)   Nannochloropsis family      116800

                                                             Slide # 36
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Potential problems with
           conventional renewable fuels




                        Slide # 37
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University
Potential problems with
           conventional renewable fuels
         Carbon Debt due to land use changes
    USA
                     Brazil

                                           Brazil




                                           After Subsidies:
                                           Deforestation of the
Before Corn                                Rainforest in Brazil to
Subsidies in the                           plant soybeans to feed
USA: Crop Rotation                         U.S. Cattle. Carbon
of Corn and Soy                            Debt is subsidized by
                              Slide # 38   the U.S. Government
Ramon Sanchez
Harvard University

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U.S. Energy Outlook: Transportation Fuels and Emerging Technologies

  • 1. U.S. Energy Outlook Ramon Sanchez (rsanchez@hsph.harvard.edu) Harvard University April 4, 2012
  • 2. U.S. Total Energy Market Share by Type of Fuel Slide # 2 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 3. Petroleum Fuel   Price of fuel presents variations Slide # 3 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 4. Energy in Transportation Fuel Used in the USA in 2009   2009 Air Certificated carriersa Jet fuel (million gallons) 11,147 General aviationb Aviation gasoline (million gallons) 227 Jet fuel (million gallons) 1,447 Highway Gasoline, diesel and other fuels (million gallons) Light duty vehicle, short wheel base and motorcyclec 86,035 Light duty vehicle, long wheel basec 35,764 Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more truck 16,342 Combination truck 28,130 Bus 1,869 Transitd Electricity (million kWh) 4,695 Motor fuel (million gallons) Diesele f 658 Gasoline and other nondiesel fuels 98 Compressed natural gas 142 Transportation Mode Energy used Rail, Class I (in freight service) Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons) 3,192 (MJ) Amtrak Highway 2.35E+13 Electricity (million kWh) 565 Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons) 62 Air 1.97E+12 Water Residual fuel oil (million gallons) 4,543 Water 3.34E+11 Distillate / diesel fuel oil (million gallons) 1,266 Transit 1.42E+11 Gasoline (million gallons) 1,130 Amtrak Slide # 4 1.16E+10 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 5. Transportation per type of vehicle Transportation Mode Passenger Miles Traveled in the USA in 2008 (Millions) Passenger Vehicles 3199116 SUVs 1049667 Air Carriers 583281 Intercity Buses 314278 Trucks 310681 Motorcycles 26430 Inner City Buses 21198 Heavy Rail 16850 Commuter Rail 11032 Amtrak 6179 Light Rail 2081 Other 1156 Taxis 844 Ferry Boat 390 Trolley Bus 161 Slide # 5 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 6. Current Trends in Transportation   Energy efficient vehicles, people are finding ways to use less fuel   Emerging Technologies (diesel, hybrid and electric vehicles) Slide # 6 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 7. Hybrid vehicles For every 100 Units of Input Energy you get 32 Output Units (Overall 40 – 50 mpg) Slide # 7 Ramon Sanchez Harvard School of Public Health
  • 8. Hybrid Vehicle Technology Slide # 8 Ramon Sanchez Harvard School of Public Health
  • 9. Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid: It is an electric vehicle that uses Lithium-ion technology batteries to achieve an autonomy of 35 miles per charge (Chevy Volt). If the user would like to drive for longer distances, the hybrid system would activate the internal combustion engine and the car would become a hybrid vehicle. Under just electric operation it would give you an equivalent of 165 miles/gallon and in the hybrid operation you would get 140 miles/gallon. It takes 8 to 6 hours to recharge the battery, but it could potentially be used as a supplemental energy source for your home after a long drive, it may be good Slide # 9 Ramon Sanchez Harvard School of Public Health for 98 % of non-heavy duty applications.
  • 10. Limitations for plug-in hybrid vehicle technologies   Concerns about environmental equity, pollution from mobile sources in urban areas might switch to point sources in rural areas (i.e. Power Plants)   Supply problems with rare earths needed for electromagnetic components Slide # 10 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 11. Electricity by type of fuel in the U.S. Proportion of U.S. Energy Source electricity (2010) Coal 44.0% Natural Gas 24.0% Nuclear 19.5% Hydroelectric 6.3% Biomass and other 3.5% Oil 0.9% Wind 0.8% Solar 0.7% Geothermal 0.3% Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Slide # 11 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 12. Electricity Residential Average Price in the USA Slide # 12 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 13. Emission factors for conventional electricity   Different emissions for electricity from different fuel sources Source: Air pollution from electricity-generating large combustion plants An assessment of the theoretical emission reduction of SO2 and NOX through implementation of BAT as set in the BREFs . European Environmental Agency Slide # 13 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 14. Electricity from Natural Gas with Co-generation   Natural Gas represents 24% of electricity It has a higher efficiency than any other type of conventional power generation facility (close to 50% efficiency) Slide # 14 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 15. Hydroelectric Power   A hydroelectric dam, provides relatively clean energy and serves as a water reserve for agriculture and human consumption Slide # 15 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 16. Hydroelectric Power Slide # 16 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 17. Nuclear Power It represents almost 20% of all energy produced in the USA Slide # 17 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 18. The Clean Coal Dilemma   What is Clean Coal ? Monoethanolamine Plant: Used to toxic emissions and Capture CO2 Slide # 18 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 19. The Clean Coal Dilemma   Problems with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (i.e. Clean Coal) Energy Intensive: Electricity output decreases between 18 and 23% Capital costs increase by 60% Operating costs increase by 30-40% Electricity prices increase between 80 to 100% Long-term health effects from carbon capture are unknown Clean Coal is not a myth, it Carbon sequestration is uncertain, certain is just too expensive. geological formations are required to capture Electricity generators are carbon underground unwilling to invest if there is Capture period is uncertain, constant monitoring no legislative mandate and risk analysis are needed Slide # 19 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 20. Solution to Clean Coal Dilemma might be in renewable fuels   Renewable Fuels: They come from carbohydrates and lipids from plants and animals, they are replenished consistently every year Slide # 20 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 21. Non-edible crops   Potential Solution to renewable fuel problems: Non-edible Energy Crops (low water requirements) Jatropha Curcas Microalgae Farming Slide # 21 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 22. Microalgae Farming   Area of opportunity: Algae Biodiesel Species Algae Inoculation +CO2 Mixing Harvesting Extraction Selection Culture and nutrients Soap and Glycerin Recovery Cosmetics Biodiesel Slide # 22 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University Public Health School of Transesterification
  • 23. Algae farming might pay for Clean Coal   Results Carbon Capture + Algae Farm   Reduction of 76% in the carbon intensity of fuels (compared to fossil fuels)   Reduction of 95% in the carbon intensity of electricity with no additional costs (the algae farm pays for Clean Coal operation)   Elimination of 95% of toxic emissions from power plants + = Slide # 23 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 24. Photovoltaic Electricity   Costs have decreased by 70% in the past decade New Technologies: Solar laminate panels PV is an international commodity http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYJe12X6T50 http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=VdQK5wq4T_E&feature=fvwp&NR=1 Slide # 24 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 25. Concentrated Solar Power Tech   Emerging http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIv-gbZQC4k&feature=fvsr Slide # 25 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 26. New Waste-To-Energy Tech   Reduced toxic emissions and solid waste Plasma incinerator: Produces electricity from trash, produces synthetic gas and reduces landfill space Slide # 26 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVKm_i0Fvw8
  • 27. Energy Efficiency Programs   People embrace this program Electricity used in Commercial Buildings in the USA SEDS: State Energy Data Systems Space Cooling Slide # 27 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 28. Wind Power Slide # 28 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 29. Fuel Cell Vehicle It has no mobile parts in its engine, it gets its energy from the reaction of Hydrogen and Oxygen. The issue, how do you get, store and distribute the hydrogen??? Slide # 29 Ramon Sanchez Harvard School of Public Health
  • 30. Fuel Cell Technology   The main problem with fuel cells is: How do you get the hydrogen in a sustainable way? Slide # 30 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 31. New Technologies to get hydrogen Daniel Nocera, formerly at MIT, now a Professor in the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Slide # 31 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 32. Opportunities for domestic fuel cells For more information, click in the following link: http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/03/clean-energy- pioneer-brings-lab-to-harvard/ Slide # 32 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 33. Other applications for fuel cells For more information, click in the following links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khK_QTWl5Nc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaNGJul2FZ0&feature=endscreen&NR=1 Slide # 33 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 34. Questions?? Slide # 34 Ramon Sanchez © Harvard University
  • 35. Thank you!!! There is nothing more difficult to execute nor more dubious of success nor more dangerous to administer than to introduce a New Order of Things Slide # 35 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 36. Potential problems with conventional renewable fuels Oil Producing Crop Scientific Name Kg of oil/ Hectare .Yr Corn Zea mays 145 Cotton Gossypium hirsutum 273 Hemp Cannabis sativa 305 Soy Beans Glycine max 375 Linseed Linum usitatissimum 402 Cartamus Carthamus tinctorius 655 Buffalo plant Cucurbita foetidissima 665 Rice Oriza sativa L. 696 Sunflower Helianthus annuus 800 Cocoa Beans Theobroma cacao 863 Penauts Arachis hypogaea 890 Canola Brassica napus 1000 Olive Olea europaea 1019 Castor Ricinus communis 1188 Pecan Carya illinoensis 1505 Jojoba Simmondsia chinensis 1528 Babassu Palm Orbignya martiana 1541 Jatropha Jatropha curcas 1590 Avocado Persea americana 2217 Coconut Cocos nucifera 2260 Maacauba Palm Acrocomia aculeata 3775 Oil Palm Elaeis guineensis 5000 Spirulina microalgae Spirullina Sp. 18000 Diatom algae Chlorella Diatomea family 43200 Nannochoropsis (off-shore) Nannochloropsis family 116800 Slide # 36 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 37. Potential problems with conventional renewable fuels Slide # 37 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  • 38. Potential problems with conventional renewable fuels   Carbon Debt due to land use changes USA Brazil Brazil After Subsidies: Deforestation of the Before Corn Rainforest in Brazil to Subsidies in the plant soybeans to feed USA: Crop Rotation U.S. Cattle. Carbon of Corn and Soy Debt is subsidized by Slide # 38 the U.S. Government Ramon Sanchez Harvard University