A monthly survey of Irish consumer sentiment in relation to the state of the economy and the timing of recovery.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs All recessions end in recovery – so will
this one
The biggest forecasting challenge is
timing: when do we know the recession
is over and recovery has started?
Amárach Research has developed the
Economic Recovery Index to help us
track the economic cycle more closely
This report summarises the ERI results
for April to October 2009
The July fieldwork was conducted on
18th-23rd October inclusive
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them
to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
October has seen the strongest ERI score since April: as many people
think the worst is over as think it’s still getting worse
April 0% October 0%
April 1% October 1%
April 77% October 47%
47%
April 8% October 23%
23%
April 14%
14% October 30%
30%
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

5. Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the survey we have created the Economic Recovery Index,
which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)
The ERI has improved strongly through August and October, recovering all of the
ground lost in June-July
2009 ERI Score
0 April 8.3
100
April October May 16.3
June 17.8
July 15.0
August 17.0
September 18.4
October 19.6
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

6. 6
Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: September and October 2009
Ireland will be through the I am optimistic in spite of The recession is
worst of the recession the current economic affecting other people
in 12 months time situation more than it is affecting
me
48% 62% 60%
46% 55% 56%
September October September October September October
I feel financially I am more relaxed about
comfortable enough to spending money than I
make it through the was a few months ago
recession
18%
48%
46% 16%
September October September October
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

7. 7
Mood of the Nation
Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?
September and October 2009
61% 61%
52% 54%
47%
40% 39%
34%
22%
18% 16% 19% 19%
13%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Sadness Physical Anger
Pain
September October
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

8. 8
Insights & Implications
October has seen a continuing improvement
in the general public’s perceptions of the
current status of the recession-recovery cycle.
This bodes well for consumer markets in
particular, and the wider economy in general,
if it translates into increased spending.
But that is a big ‘IF’. Other indicators in our
ERI survey point to little real change in
consumer sentiment in relation to willingness
to spend or confidence about their financial
ability to get through the recession.
So the improvement in the ERI in October
may well herald a better macro-economic
outlook in the months ahead, but it is too early
to tell if consumers are about to loosen their
purses and wallets in the run up to Christmas
and into 2010.
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

9. 9
About Amárach
Amárach Research is a full service
market research agency
The questions for the Economic
Recovery Index are run on our monthly
online omnibus survey of 1,000 adults
Keep up with Amárach’s thinking by
subscribing to our free fortnightly ezine:
Consumer Foresight
More information at:
www.amarach.com
Check out our blog here:
www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

10. 10
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Bernadette Coyne – Managing Director
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
bernadette.coyne@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index