SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 11
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
The Economic Recovery Index
     An Amárach Research Briefing
         October Index Results




       The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator




             September 2010 Results

                                        © Amárach Research 2009
2

                                 Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs

                                       • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one

                                       • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
                                         when do we know the recession is over and
                                         recovery has started?

                                       • Amárach Research has developed the
                                         Recovery Indicator to help us track the
                                         economic cycle more closely

                                       • This report summarises the Recovery
                                         Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
                                         to September 2010

                                       • The fieldwork was conducted on 13th to 22nd
                                         September 2010
3

                         A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
  150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
  which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’

• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
4

                          A Matter of Measurement
• The general sense in September ‘10 is marginally less positive than August. Although
  the trend versus April 2009 is one of improvement, September sees a more concerned
  response than that of August.




                                                                 April’09 0%     September’10
                                                                                      *



                                                                 April’09 1%     August’10 2%



        April’09 77%   September‘10                           April’09 8%      August’10 21%
                           45%



                               April’09 14%   September’10
                                                  29%
5


                         AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
  from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• Summer positivity of June and July declines at the start of Autumn.

   30
                                                                         27.1                              26
   25                                                                                                    25.3     24
                                                                                 22.7 23.8
                                                                                    23.5       23.8
   20                                               19.6                                                                19.2
                      17.8                 18.4            17.8 18.3
                                      17
   15                          15

   10
              8.3
    5

    0
        Apr     Jun     July    Aug    Sept   Oct     Nov    Dec   Jan     Feb    Mar   Apr   May June    July   Aug   Sept
        '09                                                        '10                  '10
6


                                Recovery Outlook 1
          Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
                                % agree strongly/slightly

                                                52%                   42%
                          48%         41% 43%                                      39%
       41%44% 42% 43% 46%                         41%   42% 43% 42% 42%
 34%                                                                                 31%

 Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
 '09                                   '10


               I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
                                % agree strongly/slightly

                                      61%                                54% 55%
57%    59% 65%58%
                  60% 62% 55% 51% 51%                                                 46%
                                                      55% 54% 52% 53%              50%



 Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
 '09                                   '10
7


                               Recovery Outlook 2
           I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the
                           recession: % agree strongly/slightly


                                     45% 45% 50%                    47%   41%
  48% 48%51% 47% 48% 48% 46%                    47% 43% 47%     45%    46%
                                                            45%


 Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
 '09                                   '10



       Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than
                      it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
                                          56% 55%53% 55%
59%   62% 61%60% 61% 60% 56%                                                   55%      53%
                            52%                              53% 51% 50%             54%



 Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
 '09                                   '10
8


          Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
    Percent of adults who agree with each statement: Sept 2009 and Sept 2010 (unless otherwise stated)

                                         I am more relaxed about          I am saving a lot more
                                          spending money than I           than before because of
             Impact on:                    was a few months ago                the recession
             •Spending
             •Saving                                                        33%
             •Debt                         18%            18%                                 24%

             •Borrowing
                                          Sept '09      Sept' 10           Sept'09          Sept '10

        # Paying off debts is my                                          # Now is a good time to
           main financial priority         # I would be happy to           buy a house* for those
                                           borrow from a bank if I              who want to
             61%                                   need to
                             56%                                             62%                62%

                                            33%            27%



           Oct'09          Sept'10         Oct '09       Sept '10           Oct '09          Sept '10
                                                                                * ‘a new house’ in 2009
# Question first asked in October 2009
9

                          The Mood of the Nation 1
      Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
      April 2009 to September 2010

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%
                      Enjoyment        Happiness       Stress       Worry
10%

0%
      Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
      '09                                  '10         '10
10

                          The Mood of the Nation 2
      Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
      April 2009 to September 2010

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%
                        Anxiety         Sadness         Pain        Anger
5%

0%
      Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
      '09                                  '10         '10
11




AIB Contact Details     Amárach Contact Details
  Ronan Sheridan          Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
 Group Press Officer          Amárach Research
        AIB             11 Kingswood Business Centre
    Bankcentre            Citywest Business Campus
    Ballsbridge                    Dublin 24
      Dublin 4
                               T. (01) 410 5200
  T. (01) 641 4651      E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
  M. 086 388 0898           W. www.amarach.com
                       B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011Amarach Research
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010Amarach Research
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012Amarach Research
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011Amarach Research
 
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October 2011Amarach Research
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011Amarach Research
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011Amarach Research
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012Amarach Research
 
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014Amarach Research
 
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011Amarach Research
 
The 27th Quarterly C Suite Survey
The 27th Quarterly C Suite SurveyThe 27th Quarterly C Suite Survey
The 27th Quarterly C Suite Surveyjessihutcheson
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011Amarach Research
 

Was ist angesagt? (14)

AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index September 2012
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2011
 
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October 2011
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator August 2011
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator May 2011
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index August 2012
 
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator July 2011
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2013
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014
 
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator June 2011
 
The 27th Quarterly C Suite Survey
The 27th Quarterly C Suite SurveyThe 27th Quarterly C Suite Survey
The 27th Quarterly C Suite Survey
 
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011
 

Ähnlich wie AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2010

AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011Amarach Research
 
Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009
Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009
Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012Amarach Research
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012Amarach Research
 
The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009Amarach Research
 
The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009Amarach Research
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012Amarach Research
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012Amarach Research
 
The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016 Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016 Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011Amarach Research
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013Amarach Research
 

Ähnlich wie AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2010 (20)

AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011
AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2011
 
Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009
Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009
Economic Recovery Index November Results 2009
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012
 
The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index August Results 2009
 
The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012
 
Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012
Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012
Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012
 
The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009
The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2015
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2015
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index June 2014
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index September 2013
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016 Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016
Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011
Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2011
 
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013
Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013
 

Mehr von Amarach Research

Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019
Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019
Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019Amarach Research
 
CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019
CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019
CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019Amarach Research
 
Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019
Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019
Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019Amarach Research
 
The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018
The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018
The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018Amarach Research
 
Economic Recovery Index June 2018
Economic Recovery Index June 2018Economic Recovery Index June 2018
Economic Recovery Index June 2018Amarach Research
 
Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018
Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018
Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018Amarach Research
 
Economic Recovery Index May 2018
Economic Recovery Index May 2018Economic Recovery Index May 2018
Economic Recovery Index May 2018Amarach Research
 
Economic Recovery Index April 2018
Economic Recovery Index April 2018Economic Recovery Index April 2018
Economic Recovery Index April 2018Amarach Research
 
Economic Recovery Index March 2018
Economic Recovery Index March 2018Economic Recovery Index March 2018
Economic Recovery Index March 2018Amarach Research
 
The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018
The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018
The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018Amarach Research
 
Economic Recovery Index February 2018
Economic Recovery Index February 2018Economic Recovery Index February 2018
Economic Recovery Index February 2018Amarach Research
 
The Pharmacy Market Report 2018
The Pharmacy Market Report 2018The Pharmacy Market Report 2018
The Pharmacy Market Report 2018Amarach Research
 
Three Connected Ireland Report II
Three Connected Ireland Report IIThree Connected Ireland Report II
Three Connected Ireland Report IIAmarach Research
 
The Loyalty Market Report 2018
The Loyalty Market Report 2018The Loyalty Market Report 2018
The Loyalty Market Report 2018Amarach Research
 
Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018
Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018
Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018Amarach Research
 
Economic Recovery Index January 2018
Economic Recovery Index January 2018Economic Recovery Index January 2018
Economic Recovery Index January 2018Amarach Research
 

Mehr von Amarach Research (20)

Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019
Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019
Future Skills for Ireland - An Amárach Presentation to IITD 2019
 
Future of Ireland 3
Future of Ireland 3Future of Ireland 3
Future of Ireland 3
 
Future of Ireland 2
Future of Ireland 2Future of Ireland 2
Future of Ireland 2
 
Future of Ireland 1
Future of Ireland 1Future of Ireland 1
Future of Ireland 1
 
CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019
CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019
CII Engagement with Charities Research 2019
 
Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019
Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019
Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing in Ireland 2019
 
The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018
The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018
The Brand Impact of Cause Marketing in Ireland 2018
 
Economic Recovery Index June 2018
Economic Recovery Index June 2018Economic Recovery Index June 2018
Economic Recovery Index June 2018
 
Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018
Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018
Amárach Poll on E-Cigarettes June 2018
 
Economic Recovery Index May 2018
Economic Recovery Index May 2018Economic Recovery Index May 2018
Economic Recovery Index May 2018
 
Economic Recovery Index April 2018
Economic Recovery Index April 2018Economic Recovery Index April 2018
Economic Recovery Index April 2018
 
Economic Recovery Index March 2018
Economic Recovery Index March 2018Economic Recovery Index March 2018
Economic Recovery Index March 2018
 
The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018
The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018
The Latte Levy - An Amarach Research and Carr Communications Report 2018
 
Economic Recovery Index February 2018
Economic Recovery Index February 2018Economic Recovery Index February 2018
Economic Recovery Index February 2018
 
The Pharmacy Market Report 2018
The Pharmacy Market Report 2018The Pharmacy Market Report 2018
The Pharmacy Market Report 2018
 
Three Connected Ireland Report II
Three Connected Ireland Report IIThree Connected Ireland Report II
Three Connected Ireland Report II
 
Charities 2037
Charities 2037Charities 2037
Charities 2037
 
The Loyalty Market Report 2018
The Loyalty Market Report 2018The Loyalty Market Report 2018
The Loyalty Market Report 2018
 
Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018
Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018
Wellbeing and Decision Making in Everyday Life - UCD and Amárach Research 2018
 
Economic Recovery Index January 2018
Economic Recovery Index January 2018Economic Recovery Index January 2018
Economic Recovery Index January 2018
 

AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator September 2010

  • 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator September 2010 Results © Amárach Research 2009
  • 2. 2 Timing Recovery Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely • This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to September 2010 • The fieldwork was conducted on 13th to 22nd September 2010
  • 3. 3 A Matter of Measurement • Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ • Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
  • 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement • The general sense in September ‘10 is marginally less positive than August. Although the trend versus April 2009 is one of improvement, September sees a more concerned response than that of August. April’09 0% September’10 * April’09 1% August’10 2% April’09 77% September‘10 April’09 8% August’10 21% 45% April’09 14% September’10 29%
  • 5. 5 AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator • Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak). • Summer positivity of June and July declines at the start of Autumn. 30 27.1 26 25 25.3 24 22.7 23.8 23.5 23.8 20 19.6 19.2 17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3 17 15 15 10 8.3 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept '09 '10 '10
  • 6. 6 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 48% 41% 43% 39% 41%44% 42% 43% 46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 34% 31% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept '09 '10 I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54% 55% 57% 59% 65%58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51% 46% 55% 54% 52% 53% 50% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept '09 '10
  • 7. 7 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 45% 45% 50% 47% 41% 48% 48%51% 47% 48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 46% 45% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept '09 '10 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 56% 55%53% 55% 59% 62% 61%60% 61% 60% 56% 55% 53% 52% 53% 51% 50% 54% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept '09 '10
  • 8. 8 Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: Sept 2009 and Sept 2010 (unless otherwise stated) I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 33% •Debt 18% 18% 24% •Borrowing Sept '09 Sept' 10 Sept'09 Sept '10 # Paying off debts is my # Now is a good time to main financial priority # I would be happy to buy a house* for those borrow from a bank if I who want to 61% need to 56% 62% 62% 33% 27% Oct'09 Sept'10 Oct '09 Sept '10 Oct '09 Sept '10 * ‘a new house’ in 2009 # Question first asked in October 2009
  • 9. 9 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to September 2010 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 10% 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept '09 '10 '10
  • 10. 10 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to September 2010 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept '09 '10 '10
  • 11. 11 AIB Contact Details Amárach Contact Details Ronan Sheridan Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Group Press Officer Amárach Research AIB 11 Kingswood Business Centre Bankcentre Citywest Business Campus Ballsbridge Dublin 24 Dublin 4 T. (01) 410 5200 T. (01) 641 4651 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com M. 086 388 0898 W. www.amarach.com B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com