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Future of Human Civilization

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Future of Human Civilization

  1. 1. Humanities The Future?
  2. 2. Future of Humanity Future of Religion Future of Government Future of Money Future of Art Future of Architecture Future of Science and Technology Future of Society Future of Humans
  3. 3. The most instructive way I know to express this cosmic chronology is to imagine the fifteen-billion-year lifetime of the universe (or at least its present incarnation since the Big Bang) compressed into the span of a single year. Then every billion years of Earth history would correspond to about twenty-four days of our cosmic year, and one second of that year to 475 real revolutions of the Earth about the sun. On this scale, the events of our history books-even books that make significant efforts to deprovincialize the present-are so compressed that it is necessary to give a second-by- second recounting of the last seconds of the cosmic year. Even then, we find events listed as contemporary that we have been taught to consider as widely separated in time. In the history of life, an equally rich tapestry must have been woven in other periods-for example, between 10:02 and 10:03 on the morning of April 6th or September 16th. But we have detailed records only for the very end of the cosmic year. -Gardens of Eden by Carl Sagan
  4. 4. PRE-DECEMBER DATES • Big Bang ~January 1 • Origin of the Milky Way Galaxy ~ May 1 • Origin of the solar system ~ September 9 • Formation of the Earth ~ September 14 • Origin of life on Earth ~ September 25 • Formation of the oldest rocks known on Earth ~ October 2 • Date of oldest fossils (bacteria and blue-green algae) ~ October 9 • Invention of sex (by microorganisms) ~ November 1 • Oldest fossil photosynthetic plants ~November 12 • Eukaryotes (first cells with nuclei) flourish ~ November 15
  5. 5. DECEMBER 31st • Origin of Proconsul and Ramapithecus, probable ancestors of apes and men ~ 1:30 P.M. • First humans ~ 10:30 P.M. • Widespread use of stone tools ~11:00 P.M. • Domestication of fire by Peking man ~11:46 P.M. • Beginning of most recent glacial period ~11:56 P.M. • Seafarers settle Australia ~11:58P.M. • Extensive cave painting in Europe ~11:59 P.M. • Invention of agriculture ~11:59:20 P.M. • Neolithic civilization; first cities ~11:59:35 P.M. • First dynasties in Sumer, Ebla and Egypt; development of astronomy ~11:59:50 P.M. • Invention of the alphabet; Akkadian Empire ~11:59:51P.M. • Hammurabic legal codes in Babylon; Middle Kingdom in Egypt ~11:59:52 P.M. • Bronze metallurgy; Mycenaean culture; Trojan War; Olmec culture: invention of the compass ~11:59:53 P.M.
  6. 6. DECEMBER 31st • Iron metallurgy; First Assyrian Empire; Kingdom of Israel; • founding of Carthage by Phoenicia ~11:59:54 P.M. • Ahsokan India; Ch'in Dynasty China; Periclean Athens; birth of Buddha ~11:59:55 P.M. • Euclidean geometry; Archimedean physics; Ptolemaic astronomy; Roman Empire; birth of Christ ~11:59:56 P.M. • Zero and decimals invented in Indian arithmetic; Rome falls; Moslem conquests- ~11:59:57 P.M. • Mayan civilization; Sung Dynasty China; Byzantine empire; Mongol invasion; Crusades ~11:59:58 P.M. • Renaissance in Europe; voyages of discovery from Europe and from Ming Dynasty China; emergence of the experimental method in science ~11:59:59 P.M. • Widespread development of science and technology; emergence of a global culture; acquisition of the means for self-destruction of the human species; The first steps in spacecraft planetary exploration and of the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence. ~ Now: first second of New Year's Day.
  7. 7. Understanding Time The construction of such tables and calendars is inevitably humbling. It is disturbing to find that in such a cosmic year the Earth does not condense out of interstellar matter until early September; dinosaurs emerge on Christmas Eve; flowers arise on December 28th; and men and women originate at 10:30 P.M. on New Year's Eve. All of recorded history occupies the last ten seconds of December 31; and the time from the waning of the Middle Ages to the present occupies little more than one second. But because I have arranged it that way, the first cosmic year has just ended. And despite the insignificance of the instant we have so far occupied in cosmic time, it is clear that what happens on and near Earth at the beginning of the second cosmic year will depend very much on the scientific wisdom and the distinctly human sensitivity of mankind.
  8. 8. Future Shock – Culture Shock The parallel term "culture shock" has already begun to creep into the popular vocabulary. Culture shock is the effect that immersion in a strange culture has on the unprepared visitor. The culture shock phenomenon accounts for much of the bewilderment, frustration, and disorientation that plagues people in their dealings with other societies. It causes a breakdown in communication, a misreading of reality, an inability to cope. Yet culture shock is relatively mild in comparison with the much more serious malady, future shock. Future shock is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future. It may well be the most important disease of tomorrow.
  9. 9. Future Shock – Culture Shock Future shock is a time phenomenon, a product of the greatly accelerated rate of change in society. It arises from the superimposition of a new culture on an old one. It is culture shock in one's own society. Take an individual out of his own culture and set him down suddenly in an environment sharply different from his own, with a different set of cues to react to different conceptions of time, space, work, love, religion, sex, and everything else then cut him off from any hope of retreat to a more familiar social landscape, and the dislocation he suffers is doubly severe. Moreover, if this new culture is itself in constant turmoil, and if—worse yet—its values are incessantly changing, the sense of disorientation will be still further intensified. Given few clues as to what kind of behaviour is rational under the radically new circumstances, the victim may well become a hazard to himself and others.
  10. 10. Future Shock Time frame Painting with the broadest of brush strokes, biologist Julian Huxley informs us that "The tempo of human evolution during recorded history is at least 100,000 times as rapid as that of pre-human evolution." Inventions or improvements of a magnitude that took perhaps 50,000 years to accomplish during the early Palaeolithic era were, he says, "run through in a mere millennium toward its close; and with the advent of settled civilization, the unit of change soon became reduced to the century." The rate of change, accelerating throughout the past 5000 years, has become, in his words, "particularly noticeable during the past 300 years."
  11. 11. Future Shock “Technology” To most people, the term technology conjures up images of smoky steel mills or clanking machines. Perhaps the classic symbol of technology is still the assembly line created by Henry Ford half a century ago and made into a potent social icon by Charlie Chaplin in Modern Times. This symbol, however, has always been inadequate, indeed, misleading, for technology has always been more than factories and machines. The invention of the horse collar in the middle ages led to major changes in agricultural methods and was as much a technological advance as the invention of the Bessemer furnace centuries later. Moreover, technology includes techniques, as well as the machines that may or may not be necessary to apply them. It includes ways to make chemical reactions occur, ways to breed fish, plant forests, light theatres, count votes or teach history.
  12. 12. Future Shock “Acceleration” The old symbols of technology are even more misleading today, when the most advanced technological processes are carried out far from assembly lines or open hearths. Indeed, in electronics, in space technology, in most of the new industries, relative silence and clean surroundings are characteristic—even sometimes essential. And the assembly line—the organization of armies of men to carry out simple repetitive functions—is an anachronism. It is time for our symbols of technology to change—to catch up with the quickening changes in technology, itself. This acceleration is frequently dramatized by a thumbnail account of the progress in transportation. It has been pointed out, for example, that in 6000 B.C. the fastest transportation available to man over long distances was the camel caravan, averaging eight miles per hour. It was not until about 1600 B.C. when the chariot was invented that the maximum speed was raised to roughly twenty miles per hour. So impressive was this invention, so difficult was it to exceed this speed limit, that nearly 3,500 years later, when the first mail coach began operating in England in 1784, it averaged a mere ten mph. The first steam locomotive, introduced in 1825, could muster a top speed of only thirteen mph, and the great sailing ships of the time laboured along at less than half that speed. It was probably not until the 1880's that man, with the help of a more advanced steam locomotive, managed to reach a speed of one hundred mph. It took the human race millions of years to attain that record. It took only fifty-eight years, however, to quadruple the limit, so that by 1938 airborne man was cracking the 400-mph line. It took a mere twenty-year flick of time to double the limit again. And by the 1960's rocket planes approached speeds of 4000 mph, and men in space capsules were circling the earth at 18,000 mph. Plotted on a graph, the line representing progress in the past generation would leap vertically off the page.
  13. 13. Future Shock “Are we blind to change?” • “You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her decks? I have no time for such nonsense.” - Napoléon Bonaparte Within a few years ships with sails got replaced by steam ships. • In 1865 a newspaper editor told his readers that "Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.“ Less than 10 years later Telephone was invented. • Famous American astronomer, Simon Newcomb, had not long before assured the world that "No possible combination of known substances, known forms of machinery and known forms of force, can be united in a practical machine by which man shall fly long distances.“ Just a few years later Wright brother made the first flight. • "nothing less than feeblemindedness to expect anything to come of the horseless carriage movement.“ 6 Years later 1 Million Ford Model T cars were made in Detroit. • Rutherford, himself, the discoverer of the atom, who said in 1933 that the energy in the atom's nucleus would never be released. In 1942 First controlled Chain reaction took place. Again and again the human brain—including the first class scientific brain—has blinded itself to the novel possibilities of the future, has narrowed its field of concern to gain momentary reassurance, only to be rudely shaken by the accelerative thrust. -Future Shock by Alvin Toffler
  14. 14. Future of Humanity ▪ Most science fictional and futurist visions of the future tend towards the negative - and for good reason. Our environment is a mess, we have a nasty tendency to misuse technologies, and we're becoming increasingly capable of destroying ourselves. ▪ But civilizational demise is by no means guaranteed. Should we find a way to manage the risks and avoid dystopic outcomes, our far future looks astonishingly bright. Here are seven best- case scenarios for the future of humanity. ▪ But before we go forward it's worth noting that many of the scenarios listed are not mutually exclusive. If things go really well, our civilization will continue to evolve and diversify, leading to many different types of futures. Dystopia is an imaginary community or society that is undesirable or frightening. It is literally translated as "not-good place", an antonym of utopia.
  15. 15. Status quo ▪ While this is hardly the most exciting outcome for humanity, it is still an outcome. we may not be around to see the next century. ▪ Our ongoing survival even if it's under our current state of technological development could be considered a positive outcome. ▪ Some have even suggested that we've already reached our pinnacle as a species.
  16. 16. A bright green Earth ▪ Visions of the far future tend to conjure images of a Cybertron-like Earth, covered from pole-to-pole in steel and oil. It's an environmentalist's worst nightmare — one in which nature has been completely swept aside by the onslaught of technology and the ravages of environmental exploitation. ▪ Yet it doesn't have to be this way; the future of our planet could be far more green and verdant than we ever imagined. ▪ Emerging branches of futurism, including technogaianism and bright green environmentalism, suggest that we can use technologies to clean up the Earth and create sustainable energy models, and even to transform the planet itself.
  17. 17. Watched over by machines of loving grace ▪ Regrettably, it's very possible that the technological Singularity will be an extinction event. The onset of radically advanced machine intelligence — perhaps as early as 30 years from now — will be so beyond our control and understanding that it will likely do us in, whether it happens deliberately, accidentally, or by our own mismanagement of the process. ▪ But the same awesome power that could destroy us could also result in the exact opposite. It's this possibility — that a machine intelligence could create a veritable utopia for humanity ▪ If future AI designers can guide and mould the direction of these advanced systems and most importantly their goal orientation it's conceivable that we could give rise to what's called ‘friendly AI' — a kind of Asimovian intelligence that's incapable of inflicting any harm. And in fact, it could also serve as a supremely powerful overseer and protector.
  18. 18. The Three Laws of Robotics or Asimov's Laws 1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. 2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. 3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
  19. 19. To boldly go where no one has gone before... • We need to get off this rock and start colonizing other solar systems — there's no question about it. Not only does our ongoing survival depend on it (the ‘all our eggs in one basket problem'), it's also in our nature as a species to move on. • Indeed, by venturing beyond our borders and blowing past our biological limitations we have continually pushed our society forward — what has resulted in ongoing technological, social, political, and economic progress. • Even today, our limited ventures into space have reaped countless benefits, including satellite technologies, an improved understanding of science — and even the sheer thrill of seeing a high-definition image streamed back from the surface of Mars.
  20. 20. Inner space, not outer space • Alternatively (or in conjunction with space travel), we could attain an ideal existential mode by uploading ourselves into massive supercomputers. • It's an idea that makes a lot of sense; given the computational capacity of a mega scale computer, like a Matrioshka Brain (in which the matter of entire planet is utilized for the purpose of computation) or Dyson Sphere (which can capture the energy output of the sun), there would be more to experience in a simulated universe than in the real one itself.
  21. 21. Eternal bliss • Virtually every religion fantasizes about a utopian afterlife. This only makes sense given the imperfections and dangers of the real world; religion gives people the opportunity to express their wildest projections of an ideal state of existence. • Given our modern materialist tendencies, many of us no longer believe in heaven or anything else awaiting us in some supposed afterlife. But that doesn't mean we can't create a virtual heaven on Earth using our technologies. The elimination of all suffering and the onset of perpetual pleasure. This could be as simple as eliminating pain and negative emotional states, or something far more dramatic and profound, like maximizing the amount of psychological, emotional, and physical pleasure that a single consciousness can experience.
  22. 22. Cosmological transcension • This is basically a place for those far-off future states we can't possibly imagine — but are desirable nonetheless. • While this line of speculation tends to venture into the realms of philosophy and metaphysics (not that many of the other items on this list haven't done the same), it's still interesting and worthwhile to consider some super-speculative possibilities. • For example, futurist John Smart has suggested that human civilization is increasingly migrating into smaller and smaller increments of matter, energy, space, and time (MEST). Eventually, he argues, we'll take our collective intelligence into a cosmological realm with the same efficiency and density as a black hole — where we'll essentially escape the universe.
  23. 23. Quantifying The Development of Civilization ▪ Kardashev and Barrow Scale • The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement, based on the amount of energy a civilization is able to utilize. • The scale has three designated categories called Type I, II, and III. A Type I civilization uses all available resources on its home planet, Type II harnesses all the energy of its star, and Type III of its galaxy.
  24. 24. Quantifying The Development of Civilization ▪ Kardashev and Barrow Scale • The Barrow Scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement, based on the scale of objects we can manipulate. i.e. Measurement of Miniaturization. • It starts from Humans being able to manipulate things similar to their scale and somewhere midway is human’s ability to manipulate atoms. • It ends with the Planck constant where civilization are able to manipulate space and time’s structure.
  25. 25. The end?

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