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The Coming Global Triumph of Communications and the Threat to American Standards of Living   VON.x Conference and Expo- Industry Perspective Panel  March 18- 2008 Reed Hundt
 
U.S. HOUSEHOLD WEALTH DECLINES $ Billions Source: Financial Times.com, March 6, 2007 3Q 07 57,718 4Q 07 -1% 58,251 57,718
China – The world’s manufacturer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China the technology innovator Source:  Morgan Stanley Research ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China the information society Source:  CNNIC; World Bank; Morgan Stanley Research ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China the consumer market Source:  CNNIC; Morgan Stanley Research ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],111m  64.3 m 393 m $963 m  $570 m $281 m Size 18 50 17 24 46 28 Annual growth Percent
But China doesn’t compete with USA and Chinese don’t directly compete with Americans ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chinese firms . . .
Advantages for Chinese firms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Advantages for American firms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Disadvantages for American firms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
If firms don’t invest in America, they may invest in job creation in other countries Source:  New York Times “ In the United States, nonresidential fixed investment as a percentage of GDP fell to 11.56% in 2005 from 12.55% in 2000” 27 Text  Text  Text
[object Object],[object Object]
As a result, as the world economy grew ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
China United States 1990 international dollars Source: Maddison (2001) American per capita GDP has soared for nearly 200 years
Qianlong Emperor, 1793 "We have never valued ingenious articles, nor do we have the slightest need of your country's manufactures."
There are three keys to success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Americans should want ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The right response to China is more firm creation in America:  here’s how
Source:  U.S. Census Bureau Employment size Employment Employer firms covered in Statistics of U.S. Business 2,500 employees  or more Firms 5,657,774 3,634 115,061,184 43,877,243 Employers (firms with payroll) – 5,541,918
The big winners have to come from creative destruction . . . ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source:  Peter Drucker “ Innovation in Schumpeter’s famous phrase is also  ‘creative destruction’ .  It makes obsolete yesterday’s capital equipment and capital investment.”
A big American advantage ,[object Object]
In the 90s, births > deaths by 1-2% . . .
. . . and not surprisingly ,[object Object],[object Object]
The hotbed of firm creation has  been the Internet markets . . . which show: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Different way ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Not just firms but individuals have to be more entrepreneurial ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source: The New York Times Goal:  achieve the employer-to-employer mobility rates and income levels of Silicon Valley: both about 40% higher than the U.S. average
The American Dream ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]

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Hundt Reed

  • 1. The Coming Global Triumph of Communications and the Threat to American Standards of Living VON.x Conference and Expo- Industry Perspective Panel March 18- 2008 Reed Hundt
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  • 3. U.S. HOUSEHOLD WEALTH DECLINES $ Billions Source: Financial Times.com, March 6, 2007 3Q 07 57,718 4Q 07 -1% 58,251 57,718
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  • 13. If firms don’t invest in America, they may invest in job creation in other countries Source: New York Times “ In the United States, nonresidential fixed investment as a percentage of GDP fell to 11.56% in 2005 from 12.55% in 2000” 27 Text Text Text
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  • 16. China United States 1990 international dollars Source: Maddison (2001) American per capita GDP has soared for nearly 200 years
  • 17. Qianlong Emperor, 1793 "We have never valued ingenious articles, nor do we have the slightest need of your country's manufactures."
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  • 21. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Employment size Employment Employer firms covered in Statistics of U.S. Business 2,500 employees or more Firms 5,657,774 3,634 115,061,184 43,877,243 Employers (firms with payroll) – 5,541,918
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  • 23. Source: Peter Drucker “ Innovation in Schumpeter’s famous phrase is also ‘creative destruction’ . It makes obsolete yesterday’s capital equipment and capital investment.”
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  • 25. In the 90s, births > deaths by 1-2% . . .
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  • 30. Source: The New York Times Goal: achieve the employer-to-employer mobility rates and income levels of Silicon Valley: both about 40% higher than the U.S. average
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