Presented in class on Friday, July, 31, 2015

1. Polling&PoliticsPolling&Politics “The FirsT Thing
we oughT To do
is line up all
The pollsTers
and shooT ‘em.”
Senator Ernest F. Hollings

2. Criticism ofCriticism of
the media’sthe media’s
handling ofhandling of
the pollsthe polls

3. • Too much attention is given to the horse race aspects of theToo much attention is given to the horse race aspects of the
campaign, and polling about and coverage of issues are slighted.campaign, and polling about and coverage of issues are slighted.

4.  Survey results can be altered by questions wording, methodological
differences, and sampling strategies, and the media are not well
enough informed about polling practices to alert the public.
 The media report findings as if they true for all time rather than
being a snapshot of opinion.
 The articles must be simplistic
 Journalists have a tendency to oversimplify, exaggerate, and
fragment. The methodology of the survey rarely is covered.

5. • Polls get more costly the more they are
“filtered,” filtering being a process of
refinement that scrutinizes, separates,
codifies, and “breaks down” the “don’t
knows.” So it’s not surprising that you
read questions like “Are the poor
lazy?” (Los Angeles Times) rather than
“Does the Federal Reserve’s tight
money policy favor the rich, the poor,
or neither?”

6. Findings seldom are put in to context. The changeFindings seldom are put in to context. The change
between surveys or whether the latest survey agreesbetween surveys or whether the latest survey agrees
with previous studies often is ignored.with previous studies often is ignored.

7.  Polls interfere with the election process and have becomePolls interfere with the election process and have become
more powerful as other elements, such as the role of themore powerful as other elements, such as the role of the
political parties, have grown weaker.political parties, have grown weaker.
 Citizens answering preprimary polls are responding toCitizens answering preprimary polls are responding to
name recognition only. Thus lesser known candidatesname recognition only. Thus lesser known candidates
begin to be frozen out of the process, with workers andbegin to be frozen out of the process, with workers and
contributions drying up.contributions drying up.

8. • After winning the Iowa caucuses in January 1976 Carter became theAfter winning the Iowa caucuses in January 1976 Carter became the
presidential choice of 12 percent of Democrats, according to thepresidential choice of 12 percent of Democrats, according to the
February 1976 CBS/New York Times poll. He went on to take theFebruary 1976 CBS/New York Times poll. He went on to take the
New Hampshire primary, make the covers of Time and Newsweek,New Hampshire primary, make the covers of Time and Newsweek,
and win primaries in Florida and Illinois. Within one month the sameand win primaries in Florida and Illinois. Within one month the same
poll made him the first choice of 46 percent of Democrats. There arepoll made him the first choice of 46 percent of Democrats. There are
two views about this. The first is that of former Congressman Motwo views about this. The first is that of former Congressman Mo
Udall, who as a Democratic presidential candidate in ’76, objected toUdall, who as a Democratic presidential candidate in ’76, objected to
the pollsters’ practice of “defining” a “front-runner” in this waythe pollsters’ practice of “defining” a “front-runner” in this way
before most voters had gotten near a booth and long before any realbefore most voters had gotten near a booth and long before any real
policy arguments had been heard. He later put it thus: “It’s like apolicy arguments had been heard. He later put it thus: “It’s like a
football game, in which you say to the first team that makes a firstfootball game, in which you say to the first team that makes a first
down with ten yards, “Hereafter your team has a special rule. Yourdown with ten yards, “Hereafter your team has a special rule. Your
first downs are five yards. And if you make three of those you get afirst downs are five yards. And if you make three of those you get a
two-yard first down. And we’re going to let your first touch downtwo-yard first down. And we’re going to let your first touch down
count twenty-one points. Now the rest of you bastards play catch-upcount twenty-one points. Now the rest of you bastards play catch-up
under the regular rules.”under the regular rules.”

9. By conducting their own polls,By conducting their own polls,
the media are making news.the media are making news.

10. • Polls are deployed only when they might prove useful—that
is, helpful to the powers that be in their quest to maintain
their position and influence. Indeed, the polling industry is
a powerful ally of depoliticization and its counterpart, which
is consensus. The polls undoubtedly help decide what
people think, but their most important long-term influence
may be on how people think. The interrogative process is
very distinctly weighted against the asking of an intelligent
question or the recording of a thoughtful answer. And, as
all pollsters will tell you privately, the answers to poll
questions are very greatly influenced by what has lately
been defined as important by the television news. Since the
television news, in turn, relies upon opinion polls to
determine what is really going on, the range of discourse is
increasingly constricted.

11. • Stupid answers traditionally come from stupid questions.Stupid answers traditionally come from stupid questions.
Stupid questions, however, need not come from stupidStupid questions, however, need not come from stupid
people.people.

12. • Biased?Biased? Meaningless?Meaningless? More meaninglessMore meaningless
than thethan the ABC News/Washington PostABC News/Washington Post poll ofpoll of
July 1985, which actually askedJuly 1985, which actually asked
interviewees whether or not they thoughtinterviewees whether or not they thought
Ronald Reagan’s cancer would recur beforeRonald Reagan’s cancer would recur before
he left office?he left office? No fewer than 45 percentNo fewer than 45 percent
solemnly responded that it wouldn’t, and 33solemnly responded that it wouldn’t, and 33
percent said that they thought it would, andpercent said that they thought it would, and
only 12 percent gave the sane reply that theyonly 12 percent gave the sane reply that they
had no idea—“choice,” on this occasion, nothad no idea—“choice,” on this occasion, not
being “forced.”being “forced.”

13. Meaning Define Polls, Not Numbers

14. What Do You Think?What Do You Think?
• “Like many other technologies in politics,” says Pat Caddell, polling
is essentially “an instrument for deception whereby the truth is
obscured and the public will be excluded and ignored.” Which is a
former pollster’s way of calling polling an increasingly dangerous
substitute for democracy, if not the precise negation of it.