Caltrain ridership has more than doubled in the last decade. What are the drivers of this trend, what can be done to keep up with needs including grade separations

1. Keeping up with
Caltrain Ridership
Adina Levin - Friends of Caltrain
February 2014

2. Keeping up with Caltrain ridership
Who’s in the room?
Caltrain’s ridership growth
Underlying trends driving ridership growth
How Caltrain can keep up with growth
Grade separations
Funding opportunities
What can we do?

3. Ridership doubled in last decade
Dot.Com
Crash
Baby Bullet
Great
Recession

4. Trains are crowded
Standing room only
Platforms 4th & King

5. Trains are crowded

6. Fastest-growing transit in Bay Area

7. Rapid growth in Palo Alto
Average weekday ridership grew over 30% in last
two years
Rank 2012 2013 2014 Change
Palo Alto
University
2 4,461 5,469 6,156 38%
Cal Ave 12 1,069 1,294 1,408 31%

8. High usage by Stanford, Tech Cos
Stanford
~25% Caltrain
~45% Drivealone
Palantir, SurveyMonkey, RelateIQ
Less than 50% drive and park...

9. Cars off the freeway
If Caltrain were shut down,
it would take 4-5 extra
lanes on Highway 101 to
carry the extra rush hour
traffic.
1,500 cars/hour/lane
8,000 pax/peak hour trad peak
6,000 pax/peak hour rev. peak

10. Back to the Future
Caltrain corridor is original transit-
oriented development
Cities grew
around train
RWC, PA, MV
1938

11. Transit corridor growth
State policy to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions,
coordinate transportation &
land use
Accommodate 80% of
housing, 60% of job growth
in < 5% of land with transit
access

12. City policies to reduce trips
Transportation Demand Management
● Accommodate more people with less cars,
traffic, parking demand
● Transit passes, shuttles, carpool, carshare,
education/marketing
● Transportation Management Association
Nonprofit (typically)
● Funded by employers, developments, parking
● Data, reporting, accountability
Established Developing

13. Stanford: More people, fewer cars

14. Changing transportation preferences
Caltrain rider average income $117,000 (could drive if they
wanted to)
30% don’t have a car or don’t drive at all (survey didn’t ask
who is “car-light”)
Less than 30% drive to station
55% are under 35...

15. Changing transportation preferences
Younger people driving less…
● High school seniors with driver’s licenses declined from
85% to 73% between 1996 and 2010 (AAA)
● Average miles driven by 16 to 34 year-olds dropped by
23% between 2001 & 2009 - fewer trips, shorter trips,
larger share of non-auto trips
● 75% of millennials expect to live in a place where they
do not need a car to get around (Rockefeller Foundation
& Transportation for America)

16. Better access to jobs in San Francisco
Credit: Clem TIllier
Downtown
extension to
Transbay 202x

17. Better access to jobs in San Francisco
Central Subway
2019
Connects to Powell
Street BART and
Muni Metro

18. Double ridership in the next decade
“We need to double Caltrain ridership from
60,000 to 120,000 daily trips by the next
decade”
Carl Guardino, Silicon Valley Leadership Group

19. How can Caltrain keep up?
Current peak - 5 car trains, 5 trains per hour = 25

20. 1) Surplus cars from LA Metrolink
6 cars x 5 trains per hour = 30

21. 2) Electrification
Faster acceleration
More stops in same
end to end time
Serve underserved
stations - Cal Ave,
San Antonio
6 trains per hour x 6 car trains = 36

22. 3) Longer platforms, level boarding
8-car trains
Level boarding
● faster service
● better for mobility-impaired, strollers,
bikes
● more reliable
6 trains/hour x 8 cars = 48

23. 4) Increase frequency
Blended system: Caltrain &
HSR share tracks
No passing tracks - up to 2
HSR trains per hour
With passing tracks - up to
4 HSR trains per hour
Don’t need to wait for HSR
8 trains per hour x 8 car trains = 64

24. How can Caltrain keep up?
Scenario Peak service Peak hour train cars
Today 5x5 25
Metrolink used cars 6x5 30
Electrification 6x6 36
Longer platforms 6x8 48
Increase frequency (w/HSR) 8x8 64

25. Cost for capacity improvements

26. Grade separations
● More frequent service leads
to more stress at
intersections
● 40 at-grade crossings
remaining (⅔ separated)
● Palo Alto studying options
for Churchill, Meadow,
Charleston (not Alma by
San Franciscquito Creek)

27. Grade separation options and costs
Depress tracks in a trench
● Trench at 1% grade - $1B
● Trench at 2% grade - $500M
Road under tracks
● 3 underpasses - ~ $480M
● 65 property takes

28. Grade separation options
Split (part up, part down)
like Belmont/San Carlos
Less expensive
(Belmont/San Carlos
cost $170M in 2002)
Not being considered in
in Palo Alto, policy
against any elevation

29. Grade separation funding options
San Mateo County
● Bucket of funds in Measure A sales tax
● Cities create design, apply for $
● Belmont/San Carlos, San Bruno, next call
Santa Clara County
● Projects picked 20 years in advance?
● Will PA be ready with a design by 2016?
● Better to use San Mateo “bucket” approach

30. Grade separation funding opportunity
Value Capture
● Development in right of way
contributes funding to
infrastructure
● San Francisco Transbay
developments contributing
$400M to cost of Downtown
Extension, parks, public space
● Land value in PA and MV could
probably generate $$ - if a city
chooses this approach

31. Grade separation funding issues
Palo Alto Policy
● No local match allowed
● Only external sources of funding
● Most expensive options

32. Funding options
2016 Transportation Ballot Measures
San Francisco
San Mateo County (preliminary)
Santa Clara County
2018 - RM3 - renewed bridge tolls
State Cap and Trade funds
High Speed Rail

33. Santa Clara County Ballot Measure
2014 version that did not go forward
$3.5 billion over 30 years
BART to San Jose
Caltrain
Expressways/Freeways
Road paving
$0 for bus network
Clean slate for 2016 - Envision Silicon Valley

34. Santa Clara - where did the money go?
Mostly to BART
● Cost 2x projections in
2000
● Revenue 50% of
projections
● 2000 measure said $325M
for electrification, $60M
contributed

35. Ballot measure focus for 2016
Need guarantee for Caltrain
Palo Alto and Mountain View have leverage -
⅔ voter approval is difficult
Partner with Stanford, Google, LinkedIn, etc.
Grade separations - bucket approach
Need 3-county strategy to double ridership

36. Things you can do
1) Engage in local discussions on grade separation design
and policy
2) Urge North County cities and employers to insist on
strong Caltrain package in Santa Clara County measure
3) Extra credit: Urge Caltrain and 3 counties to work
together to fully fund “double-the-ridership”