This document summarizes research on factors that influence whether individuals change their behavior at work. The research identified both "hard beliefs" and feelings that are present to different degrees depending on whether change was successful. A simple survey tool was developed to measure these factors and predict success or failure of initiatives, targeting areas for improvement. The tool provides a "traffic light" view of how well an initiative is addressing the key factors compared to past successful and unsuccessful changes. Sample diagnostics show how the tool could be used to redirect investment in a current initiative toward the most important factors it is not adequately addressing.

1. 2014 research in the UK retail and FMCG sectors
Alastair Campbell
willwechange.com
What role do feelings, logic and managers’
behaviour play in making individuals change
their behaviour at work?
Why do we change?

2. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Summary
Development OpportunityIdea Research
Research quantified
the ‘tipping points’ for
each indicator in success
There were some
significant surprises
A simple 12 question
survey tool can predict
success or failure and
highlight what to do
about it
Massively improve
success rates in change by
repeating diagnostic to
continually target investment
Easy and cheap to use, easy
to act on and repeat to refine
results
Applicable in any sector
Cancer survival rates are
being transformed by
using big data and open
research to develop
cheap and simple
diagnostics to spot
cancer early and target
treatment early. Why
can’t we use similar
techniques to transform
success rates in
organisational change?
Research on beliefs and
feelings experienced in
successful change
carried out by Jon Dean
at Celebrate the Corners
and Alastair Campbell
over 20 years
We tested these
indicators quantitatively in
2014 with a large sample
of UK participants from
leading retail and FMCG
businesses
2

3. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Over 85 percent of all pancreatic cancers are diagnosed late, when someone has less than
two percent chance of survival. How could this be? Jack Andraka developed a promising
early detection test for pancreatic cancer that’s super cheap, effective and non-invasive —
before his16th birthday. Making the test 100 times cheaper and simple makes early diagnosis
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From www.ted.com all rights reserved 3

4. We have a similar problem in
changing organisations
85% of pancreatic cancers are diagnosed late because diagnostics are too
expensive or complex to administer.
98% of people diagnosed late with pancreatic cancer die of the disease.
Surveys consistently report that 70% of change initiatives fail to deliver
planned benefits despite massive investment in making change happen.
Failure is diagnosed late after expensive investment and by then it’s too late and
expensive to treat.
Most investment in leading and enabling change is made based on a ‘one size
fits all’ model or the leader’s or change agent’s most recent experience, which
leads to the 70% failure.
So can we apply some of the features of Andraka’s approach to this similar-
sounding problem with change management?
CANCER
85%
CHANGE
70%
4

5. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
ISOLATE
INDICATORS
DEVELOP
CHEAP TEST
Dramatic
improvement
opportunity
Develop a cheap and simple
way to test for presence of
those indicators
Andraka
approach
Find the things that indicate
the presence of cancer by
studying large volumes of
historic data
Roll out the cheap and
simple test to many more
people
Act on results, track
outcomes and continually
refine the test
Develop a cheap and simple
tool to test for the presence
of these across a whole
organisation or teams in an
organisation
Cheap and simple enough to
be used regularly to track
status nearer ‘real time’
Our
approach
Find factors that indicate
future success or failure of a
change initiative
Roll out the cheap and
simple test to many
organisations
Act on the results, track
outcomes and continually
refine the test
Concept
5

6. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A different approach
6
When I didn’t
change
When I
changed
What I did
Much historic research has asked ‘leaders’ of change about the
methods they used when they believed they succeeded and what they
choose to blame for past failed initiatives. We felt this was flawed as it
is disproportionately affected by cognitive biases including self-
serving bias, hindsight bias and over-confidence bias. Many of those
research projects end up blaming ‘middle management’ or ‘resistance to
change’ for failure. These are not very actionable insights.
Our approach was different in that both quantitative and qualitative
elements asked people to reflect on when they had either changed or not
changed their own personal behaviour as part of specific change initiatives
at work. We did not seek the views of those people who sponsored or
worked on the change initiatives - we simply asked the ‘end user’ of
change.

7. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved 7
Qualitative
330
people1
1 tool20 years
Quantitative Toolkit
Method
Our qualitative research phase lasted twenty years. Our quantitative phase covered 330 individuals feeding back on two initiatives each
across >50 organisations and more than 500 initiatives in total.
1. Retail research organisation IGD invited more than 1,000 participants from their members including Co-operative, Morrison, Nestle, Sainsbury’s, Unilever, United Biscuits to
respond to the quantitative survey. 330 people responded and attended events where Alastair Campbell presented survey findings.
Jon Dean of ‘Celebrate the Corners’ worked
over 20 years to identify beliefs and feelings
that were present when people changed
their behaviour.
He used primary research with participants
in change management courses as well as
secondary research.
We developed a means to measure
these beliefs and feelings.
In 2014 we proved the validity
of these factors quantitatively.
We worked with the UK retail and
FMCG sector with support from
retail research organisation IGD.
Participants included Nestle,
Sainsbury’s, Unilever, and
United Biscuits.
>500
initiatives
Simple tool predicts success or
failure of initiative using a
quantified ‘envelope of
success’.
The tool also precisely targets
areas for action.

8. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
We found two kinds of factors predict success
8
What people see and believe about the
change. This includes the factors
typically included in change
methodologies
‘Hard’ beliefs Feelings
The way people feel about their
involvement in the change. This was
new.

9. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
‘Hard’ beliefs
9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
There is a clear need
for the change
The right solution is
being used to deliver
the change
The change was good
and provided a fair
future for those
impacted
The transition process
was feasible
Leaders in the
organisation
demonstrated their
commitment to the
change through their
own actions
The list of factors here will be very familiar to most people. Similar lists have been developed in a wide
variety of change management methodologies.
Our research broke new ground in two ways. Firstly, we quantified the degree to which each factor was
present in more than 300 different situations where individuals changed their behaviour and more than
300 situations where people didn’t change their behaviour. Our data is based on asking the end user about
what they ACTUALLY changed, not sponsors or people attempting to manage change.
Most people looking at our research find it an interesting
exercise to try to draw two lines on this chart:
• One line to show the extent to which each factor was
believed to be present across our sample of 330 people
in situations when they changed their behaviour.
• A second line to show the
extent to which each factor
was believed to be present
across our sample of 330
people in situations when they
chose not to change
their behaviour

10. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
‘Hard’ beliefs quantified
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
There was a clear
need for the change
The right solution
was used to deliver
the change
The change was
good and provided a
fair future for those
impacted
Other
The transition
process was
feasible
Leaders in the
organisation
demonstrated their
commitment to the
change through their
own actions
I changed I didn't change
The ‘Big 5’ factors make the difference
Very few respondents raised other factors as significant in making them
change (or not). And the difference between success and failure for
these other factors was much smaller than any of ‘the big 5’.
Without a clear case for change FORGET IT
Almost no initiative succeeded without this - this
means you ALWAYS NEED this. But it’s not
sufficient - 60% of initiatives with this still failed.
It’s important to note this is not just the external
organisational case for change. It is the
case for change felt by the individual.
Often this requires tactics beyond compelling
communication of the external case for change.
Demonstrable leader commitment was less
important than most people believe
We found that this was the least important of
the big 5 factors - so arguably leaders can
best invest their time in delivering the other
four factors, rather than personal role modelling
of the change.
People sabotage change they find unfair
95% of people changing their behaviour believed the change to be ‘good and fair’. The
average in ‘no change’ situations was 40%.

11. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Feelings
11
The second way in which our research broke new
ground was in identifying and quantifying a set of
feelings which are felt to different extents when
individuals changed their behaviour and when they
chose not to change their behaviour.
The set of feelings was identified over twenty years of
qualitative research with participants on change
management courses as well as secondary research on
change management methods.
Again, we quantified the degree to which
people reported experiencing these feelings
in situations where they changed
their behaviour and where they
chose not to change their behaviour.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Included
Clear
Responsible
Equipped Confident
Valued
Motivated

12. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Feelings quantified
12
7 feelings make the difference
Each of these feelings was experienced in a minimum of 75% of
situations where people changed their behaviour.
Yet none proved to be essential in all situations:
RESPONSIBLE and MOTIVATED were reported in 88% of
situations where people changed, with INCLUDED being
reported in 86% of cases.
Yet these feelings were reported in at least 35% of situations
when they chose NOT to change their behaviour.
These feelings can be addressed in a logical sequence
Most audiences we have shown these findings to observe
that there is some potential sequencing of actions to create
these feelings.
Feeling INCLUDED and VALUED often happens as a result of
early involvement, recognition and being listened to. Opinions
then differ about the typical sequencing of other feelings. It
appears that people have different personal ‘recipes for success’
for sequencing activities to generate these feelings.
This demonstrates the value of using the tool throughout an
initiative to track the ongoing progress in developing these
feelings to the threshold required for success.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Included
Clear
Responsible
Equipped Confident
Valued
Motivated
I changed I didn't change

13. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A sample diagnostic: ‘Hard’ beliefs
13
Using our results as a benchmarking tool is
potentially very powerful. It allows the
level of beliefs and feelings generated
in a change initiative to be compared with
thresholds for success. Then you can direct
activity based on data rather than anecdotes
or personal ‘recipes for success’.
The graph opposite shows feedback from a simple
survey of people impacted by a particular change
at two points in the early delivery of the change.
The dark blue dashed line shows that in the survey
in Month 1, the initiative was just getting going and
was nowhere near the threshold needed for success
on any of the ‘hard beliefs’.
The lighter blue dotted line shows the Month 2 survey,
where substantial investment had been made in demonstrable
leadership commitment. This showed that the initiative was well into the
success zone on this one dimension, but still well in the failure zone on
other important measures. Arguably, investment could be redirected
away from actions that demonstrate leadership commitment. This
investment could then be targeted on actions to ensure then demonstrate
that the right solution is being adopted and that the change is fair.
There is a clear need
for the change
The right solution is
being used to deliver
the change
The change is good
and provides a fair
future for those
impacted
The transition process
is feasible
Leaders in the
organisation
demonstrate their
commitment to the
change through their
own actions
Successful initiatives
Unsuccessful initiatives
Initiative Month 1
Initiative Month 2

14. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A sample diagnostic: Feelings
14
Included
Clear
Responsible
Equipped Confident
Valued
Motivated
Successful initiatives
Unsuccessful initiatives
Initiative 1
In this particular situation, a lot of work has gone
into making people feel included and responsible
for making the change, but they are not feeling
valued, clear or equipped. This is likely to
lead to sabotage of the initiative.
It is clear that further investment in making
people responsible (e.g. updating their
personal objectives or clarifying individual
accountabilities) would be wasted.
Instead, the sponsor of this change needs to decide between work
to make people feel more valued and clear or using other tactics to
secure compliance with the change.
Increasing feelings of being valued might be as easy as
• simple recognition of some of the teams and individuals
• acknowledging specific contributions they have made to date
• acknowledging the difficulties they are contending with.

15. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Simple traffic light ‘envelope of success’
15
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
There was a clear
need for the change
The right solution
was used to deliver
the change
The change was
good and provided a
fair future for those
impacted
Other
The transition
process was
feasible
Leaders in the
organisation
demonstrated their
commitment to the
change through their
own actions
I changed I didn't change
We developed a simple traffic light system to show the ‘envelope of
success’ for change. It draws from the green lines shown earlier for
the average presence of each factor in situations where people
changed and didn’t change respectively.
The area within the red line is deemed the red zone. If an initiative is
in this area, the presence of those factors is less than the average of
situations where people didn’t change.
The area beyond the green line is deemed
the green zone. This is where an initiative
is showing a higher presence of a factor
than the average of situations where people
changed.
The amber zone lies between these. In this
zone, an initiative is between the average for
‘change’ and ‘no change’.
Green zone: past the average ‘tipping point’
where people changed their behaviour
Red zone: below even the average
level when people chose NOT to change
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
There was a clear
need for the change
The right solution
was used to deliver
the change
The change was
good and provided a
fair future for those
impacted
Other
The transition
process was
feasible
Leaders in the
organisation
demonstrated their
commitment to the
change through their
own actions
I changed I didn't change

16. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A sample dashboard
16
Having developed a traffic light system, we can now use the benchmark diagnostic to test all of the indicators more precisely within
the organisation or community that we are trying to change. This could be split by organisational unit as shown below. It could
also be another kind of split (e.g. by geography, age group, length of service, gender etc).
This allows more precise targeting of spend. Repeating the diagnostic will allow ongoing precise targeting of investment.
We can see Ops UK is well on track whereas Ops Europe clearly requires more investment in each of the areas. There is also a
worrying indication that there is a relatively widespread belief that the solution may not be the right one. This requires urgent action to
understand whether this is a perception issue or a deeper problem with the solution. A perception issue can be solved with more
communication, prototyping, piloting etc. However, if there is evidence to support the belief that the solution is wrong, significant re-
work should be considered.

17. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Summary
17
INDICATORS
ISOLATED
CHEAP
AND SIMPLE
TEST
Surgically
target
investment
<5 minutes for respondents to
complete the survey
Easy to repeat regularly to
track progress and continually
refine investment targeting
Low cost
‘Big 5’ beliefs
‘Big 7’ feelings
Quantified benchmarks
from large and improving
data sample
Re-direct wasted or low
value investment
Double success rate?

18. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Summary
Alastair Campbell
al@willwechange.com
+44(0)7739 896354
Traditional approaches to a change initiative deliver the 70% failure rate widely reported. Typically, a trusted leader and team attempt
to make change happen based on on a personal belief about ‘what works’. This is subject to a lot of individual cognitive bias and is
probably weighted too heavily by the individual’s most recent experiences. A bit like a doctor treating a patient on the basis of the
final outcome from the last few patients they worked with, rather than a precise set of diagnostic tests for the individual patient.
Our approach is regular diagnostic tests and surgical targeting - we propose using regular fast, simple and cheap diagnostic
tests (like a regular smear test or mammogram).
We quantified feelings as well as traditional factors in change. Measuring these feelings makes it easy to understand how people
are reacting to your chosen approach to change and therefore to understand where investment is working and where it’s not (and a
new approach is needed).
We found that some factors (especially demonstrable leadership commitment through personal
action) were significantly less important than expected by most audiences.
We identified a clear ‘envelope for success’ for each indicator.
We quantified ‘tipping points’ for change.
This super-simple survey tool can:
- correct for personal biases in approaches to change
- reduce effort/spend on factors which are unnecessary or where ‘tipping point’ has been reached
- target spend on an ongoing basis where the data shows it’s actually needed across:
+ ‘hard’ beliefs (case for change etc)
+ feelings (perceived fairness etc)
+ each team or community in the organisation based on how close they are to the tipping point.
This could revolutionise our approach to managing change.
Contact Alastair Campbell if you would like to discuss our research or pilot our diagnostic tool.
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