Inclusivity and AI: opportunity or threat

Alan Dix
Alan DixProfessor um Computational Foundry, Swansea University
Alan Dix
https://alandix.com/
@alanjohndix
Inclusivity and AI
opportunity or threat
Inclusivity and AI: opportunity or threat
ACCESS
DOING
IT RIGHT
POLICY
AI for Social Justice
impact of AI
what AI does
how AI shapes society
c.f. cars
what cars do
+ve transport, independence
–ve accidents, speeding, drunk drivers
how cars shape society
– suburban sprawl
– car poverty
– global warming
impact of AI
what AI does
– productivity
– bias
– policing
– warfare
impact of AI
what AI does
– productivity, bias, policing, warfare
how AI shapes society
– economy, education, environment
– politics, power
– democracy, digital poverty
AI … why now?
1990 2000 2010 2020
1980
1970
1950 1960
AI winters
AI … why now?
1990 2000 2010 2020
Early
NN
web
search
recommender
systems
MapReduce
deep NN
AlphaGo
LLM
ChatGPT
Big Data
AI and Computation
deep NN were always known about
… what changed?
web (search, ecommerce)
=> big data
=> big data centres
big data + big computation => DNN
the new AI
new AI
BIG data + BIG computation
=
BIG business
Datanomics
2000s – networks … 2 kinds
internet
–global reach => transnational markets
–loss of national control (e.g. online gambling)
human networks
network effects
networks of connections
within groups and
between groups
networks change value
– if your colleagues use Word
it is more of value to you
teachers
parents
children
feedback loops
negative – stability, balance, golden mean
– smooth shapes, spherical water drop
– universal controller
positive – instability, dynamism, extremes
– sharp edges, fractals, snowflake
– tipping points and hysteresis
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=44338386
markets and monopolies
market economics assumes open markets
monopolies
– natural – single resource
– engineered
=> anti-trust laws (national)
network effects
=> winner takes all
=> emergent monopoly
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=127909261
digital breaks
market economics
AI and peacock tails
Jatin Sindhu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
why peacock tails?
Darwinian explanation
– runaway sexual selection
economics often described in Darwinian terms
– technological evolution
– commercial survival of the fittest
how does AI fit in?
the attention economy
on the ‘free’ web
… ultimately advertising pays
web sites (e.g. social networks, search)
best placement
=> best click-throughs
advertisers want click-throughs
=> advertisers choose best placement
winner takes all
add AI
big data + best AI
=> best placement
advertisers winner takes all
=> best AI takes most of the money
small improvement in AI => lots more money
+ AI relatively small part of cost
=> runaway AI … well beyond ‘optimal’
financial and
environmental cost
Inclusivity and AI: opportunity or threat
2019
626,000 lbs
CO2 to train
2020
warnings
from within
2023
trillion
training
tokens
who can
afford it?
companies and countries?
Open Data
“I don’t know if any public sector
has necessarily cracked the nut on attracting the
right skills and capabilities,” …
“The commercial sector has,
because they’ve got the dollars to spend.”
Ian Bartram, Gartner
signs of hope
Google open LLaMa
the model’s carbon
footprint has been reduced
to a seventh of GPT-3
the pretrained model will obviate
the need to train the model
… deploy the full model “using
only 16 NVIDIA V100 GPUs.”
~ $400,000
LORA – open and (relatively) cheap
reduce cost and carbon
low dimension
representation
of inner layers
citizens and communities?
a growing divide?
signs of hope
generative enables niche
education
– personalised tutors => choice of materials
– changes what we need to learn
… not necessarily digital!
minority languages
accessibility
– no more alt tags?
– neurodiversity too
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/11/sweden-says-back-to-basics-schooling-works-on-paper
summary
AI and digital
– changes society & undermines market economics
– can entrench power and disenfranchise the poor
signs of hope
– lower cost lower carbon foot print AI
– opportunities to redress inequalities
Inclusivity and AI
opportunity or threat
Alan Dix
https://alandix.com/academic/talks/ ICOCI2023-keynote /
the difference … is you
1 von 37

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Inclusivity and AI: opportunity or threat

  • 4. impact of AI what AI does how AI shapes society
  • 5. c.f. cars what cars do +ve transport, independence –ve accidents, speeding, drunk drivers how cars shape society – suburban sprawl – car poverty – global warming
  • 6. impact of AI what AI does – productivity – bias – policing – warfare
  • 7. impact of AI what AI does – productivity, bias, policing, warfare how AI shapes society – economy, education, environment – politics, power – democracy, digital poverty
  • 8. AI … why now? 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1970 1950 1960 AI winters
  • 9. AI … why now? 1990 2000 2010 2020 Early NN web search recommender systems MapReduce deep NN AlphaGo LLM ChatGPT Big Data
  • 10. AI and Computation deep NN were always known about … what changed? web (search, ecommerce) => big data => big data centres big data + big computation => DNN the new AI
  • 11. new AI BIG data + BIG computation = BIG business
  • 12. Datanomics 2000s – networks … 2 kinds internet –global reach => transnational markets –loss of national control (e.g. online gambling) human networks
  • 13. network effects networks of connections within groups and between groups networks change value – if your colleagues use Word it is more of value to you teachers parents children
  • 14. feedback loops negative – stability, balance, golden mean – smooth shapes, spherical water drop – universal controller positive – instability, dynamism, extremes – sharp edges, fractals, snowflake – tipping points and hysteresis https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=44338386
  • 15. markets and monopolies market economics assumes open markets monopolies – natural – single resource – engineered => anti-trust laws (national) network effects => winner takes all => emergent monopoly https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=127909261
  • 17. AI and peacock tails Jatin Sindhu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
  • 18. why peacock tails? Darwinian explanation – runaway sexual selection economics often described in Darwinian terms – technological evolution – commercial survival of the fittest how does AI fit in?
  • 19. the attention economy on the ‘free’ web … ultimately advertising pays web sites (e.g. social networks, search) best placement => best click-throughs advertisers want click-throughs => advertisers choose best placement winner takes all
  • 20. add AI big data + best AI => best placement advertisers winner takes all => best AI takes most of the money small improvement in AI => lots more money + AI relatively small part of cost => runaway AI … well beyond ‘optimal’
  • 28. Open Data “I don’t know if any public sector has necessarily cracked the nut on attracting the right skills and capabilities,” … “The commercial sector has, because they’ve got the dollars to spend.” Ian Bartram, Gartner
  • 30. Google open LLaMa the model’s carbon footprint has been reduced to a seventh of GPT-3 the pretrained model will obviate the need to train the model … deploy the full model “using only 16 NVIDIA V100 GPUs.” ~ $400,000
  • 31. LORA – open and (relatively) cheap reduce cost and carbon low dimension representation of inner layers
  • 35. generative enables niche education – personalised tutors => choice of materials – changes what we need to learn … not necessarily digital! minority languages accessibility – no more alt tags? – neurodiversity too https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/11/sweden-says-back-to-basics-schooling-works-on-paper
  • 36. summary AI and digital – changes society & undermines market economics – can entrench power and disenfranchise the poor signs of hope – lower cost lower carbon foot print AI – opportunities to redress inequalities
  • 37. Inclusivity and AI opportunity or threat Alan Dix https://alandix.com/academic/talks/ ICOCI2023-keynote / the difference … is you

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. By Remi Jouan - Photo taken by Remi Jouan, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7245143
  2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Microsoft_Office_Word_%282019%E2%80%93present%29.svg
  3. By Charles Schmitt - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=44338386
  4. By Calistemon - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=127909261
  5. Jatin Sindhu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
  6. ROTFLOLEB, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Human_eye_with_blood_vessels.jpg
  7. ROTFLOLEB, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Human_eye_with_blood_vessels.jpg
  8. By NASA ICE - A close look at the shelf, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24450299 Thwaites Ice Shelf https://www.computerworld.com/article/3431148/why-data-centres-are-the-new-frontier-in-the-fight-against-climate-change.html
  9. https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.02243
  10. https://www.unite.ai/can-you-build-large-language-models-like-chatgpt-at-half-cost/ https://theconversation.com/it-takes-a-lot-of-energy-for-machines-to-learn-heres-why-ai-is-so-power-hungry-151825
  11. in general can use flakey AI choose between good alternatives, search generate and test https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/11/sweden-says-back-to-basics-schooling-works-on-paper