Diese Präsentation wurde erfolgreich gemeldet.
Wir verwenden Ihre LinkedIn Profilangaben und Informationen zu Ihren Aktivitäten, um Anzeigen zu personalisieren und Ihnen relevantere Inhalte anzuzeigen. Sie können Ihre Anzeigeneinstellungen jederzeit ändern.

Sess2 3 kleinwechter _th1_abs032

231 Aufrufe

Veröffentlicht am

Veröffentlicht in: Technologie, Business
  • Als Erste(r) kommentieren

  • Gehören Sie zu den Ersten, denen das gefällt!

Sess2 3 kleinwechter _th1_abs032

  1. 1. AFRICAN POTATO ASSOCATION CONFERENCE 2013 Naivasha, Kenya, June 30 – July 4, 2013 Ex-ante Evaluation of Improved Potato Varieties for Sub-Saharan Africa Ulrich Kleinwechter, Guy Hareau, Merideth Bonierbale, Manuel Gastelo and Dieudonne Harahagazwe International Potato Center (CIP)
  2. 2. Outline 1. Introduction 2. Methodology: The IMPACT model 3. Scenario: Improved potato varieties for SSA 4. Results 5. Conclusions
  3. 3. 1. Introduction • Strong expansion of potato production and consumption in SSA (Low et al., 2007) • Multiple and important roles in local food systems • Increase food availability and aggregate efficiency of food systems • Short vegetation cycle and suitability to marginal environment • Provision of income generation opportunities • Cash crop and processing • Grown in regions with high incidence of poverty, undernutrition and food insecurity and high population density
  4. 4. 1. Introduction • Steady but slow yield growth in the past, main production increases from area expansions • High potential of technological innovations to increase productivity • Potentially high returns on investment and strong impacts on poverty and hunger (Anderson et al. 2010) Technological improvements in potatoes “an underexploited resource” (Alexandratos, 1997) • Ongoing breeding efforts by CIP and NARS in the region • What potential impacts can be expected from future improvement of potato varieties for SSA? Ex-ante assessment of potential impacts using an agricultural sector simulation model
  5. 5. 2. Methodology: The IMPACT model • Integrated modeling framework which combines an economic global agricultural sector model with a water simulation model • Food module • Projections of agricultural production, demand, trade flows and prices on a regional scale (countries or aggregates) • Partial-equilibrium model • 40 agricultural commodities • 155 regions and 126 water basins, which combine into 281 “food production units” (FPUs) • Water module • Simulation of water availability for agriculture and other uses • Multi-period model: 2000-2050
  6. 6. 2. Methodology: The IMPACT model
  7. 7. 2. Methodology: The IMPACT model • Agricultural production depicted by area and yield functions: Yield shifter Integration of new technologies via shifters in yield functions
  8. 8. 3. Scenario - Description of the technology • Improved potato varieties for SSA • Higher yield potential • Late-blight and virus resistance • Heat tolerance • Processing quality • 30% higher yields • Nine target countries • Total investment: 9.8m US$ (4.29m NPV, 2000 constant prices) • Project duration: 12 years Source: Theisen and Thiele (2008). EthiopiaUganda Rwanda Burundi DR Congo Kenya Tanzania Mozambique Malawi
  9. 9. 3. Scenario - Project description and cost Activity Description Output Duration Total cost 1. Breeding at  CIP One breeding  cycle, starting  from LBHT  population Advanced clones with  improved traits 4 years 3.5m US$ 2. Breeding and  seed  multiplication at  NARS Further selection,  seed  multiplication Improved potato  varieties, potato seeds  for dissemination 4 years 3.5m US$ 3. Dissemination Dissemination of  potato seeds,  extension New varieties adopted  by farmers 4 years 2.1m US$ Total 12 years 9.1m US$
  10. 10. 3. Scenario - Dissemination and adoption • Release: 2020 • Four tier model of adoption • Very low: 5% after 10 years (MLW, MOZ) • Low: 10% (DRC,TZA) • Middle: 20% (BUR, ETH, KEN, UGA) • High: 30% (RWA) • Analysis of three adoption cases • “High”: as above • “Medium”: 2/3 of “high” • “Low”: 1/3 of “high” 0 20 40 60 80 100 %ofcultivatedarea High adoption Traditional varieties Improved varieties 0 20 40 60 80 100 %ofcultivatedarea Low adoption Traditional varieties Improved varieties
  11. 11. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Kenya Traditional (High adoption) Improved (High adoption) Totalsupplyofpotatoes[1000mt] 4. Results - Production
  12. 12. 4. Results - ProductionChangeagainstbaseline[%] 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total potato supply in target countries, 2050 Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
  13. 13. 4. Results - Prices -0.14 -0.12 -0.1 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 Potato Sweet potato Cassava Rice Wheat World market prices of selected commodities, 2050 Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption Changeagainstbaseline[%]
  14. 14. 4. Results - Consumption 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Per-capita potato consumption, 2050 Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption Changeagainstbaseline [%]
  15. 15. 4. Results - Economic welfare 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 Net welfare changes Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption NPV [mUS$at2000constantprices]
  16. 16. 4. Results - Returns on investment 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 IRR Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption
  17. 17. 4. Results - Global effects -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 ∆ Producer surplus ∆ Consumer surplus ∆ Net welfare Net benefits Welfare and global benefits Low adoption Medium adoption High adoption NPV [mUS$at2000constantprices]
  18. 18. 5. Conclusions and outlook • Positive production impacts in target countries • Positive net welfare effects and high ROI in target countries • Comparable with findings from previous impact evaluations of improved varieties • Investment in improved potato varieties justified from economic point of view • Global analysis • Consumers benefit • Producers lose • Positive net benefit
  19. 19. 5. Conclusions and outlook • Pivotal role of adoption levels • Importance of market acceptance and sufficiently good seed systems for quick dissemination and adoption • Complementary investments in seed systems • Showcase application of IMPACT modeling framework for ex-ante assessment of agricultural technologies • Advantages • Global geographic coverage, comprehensive commodity coverage • Capture complex market-mediated interactions across commodities and countries • Scope for improvement: • Assumptions on costs, adoption and dissemination • Combination of IMPACT with biophysical modeling tools (crop models, pest and disease models) • Improvement of baseline data (FAO!)
  20. 20. Thank you for your attention!
  21. 21. References Alexandratos, N. (1997). World agriculture: towards 2010 : an FAO study. Chichester, New York, Brisbane: Wiley. Anderson, P., Barker, I., Best, S., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Hareau, G., & Leon Velarde, C. (2010). Importance of roots and tubers in the world food system; digging up the evidence. Unpublished manuscript, Lima, Peru, International Potato Center (CIP). Low, J., Barker, I., Bonierbale, M., Crissman, C., Forbes, G., Lemaga, B., & Priou, S. (2007). Emerging trends and advances in potato research relevant to defining the way forward for the potato sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. African Potato Association Conference Proceedings, Vol . 7 (pp. 1-17). Alexandria, Egypt. FAO. (2012). FAOSTAT database. Theisen, K., & Thiele, G. (2008). Implementing CIP’s Vision: Impact targeting. Lima, Peru.

×